membengal Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Need to take one more L is all. Just can’t afford to win twice to end the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cricket Posted December 15, 2019 Report Share Posted December 15, 2019 Our magic number is 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie_B Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 hours ago, AmishBengalFan said: I'm resisting the temptation to update the OP after the 1pm games... but with the Pats taking us down today and the Giants pulling the upset, we're just about On The Clock. 1: CIN (1-13) SoS=0.576 (Lost) 2: NYG (3-11) SoS=0.459 (Won) 3: WAS (3-11) SoS=0.481 (Lost) 4: MIA (3-11) SoS=0.488 (Lost) --- nobody below this line can be the #1 pick --- 5: DET (3-10-1) SoS=0.498 (Lost) 6: ARI (3-9-1) SoS=0.553 (vs CLE) 7: JAX (4-9) SoS=0.479 (vs OAK) 8: ATL (4-9) SoS=0.555 (vs SFF) 9: NYJ (5-9) SoS=0.469 (Lost) 10: DEN (5-9) SoS=0.512 (Lost) 11: CAR (5-9) SoS=0.536 (Lost) 12: LAC (5-8) SoS=0.535 (vs MIN) Looking a bit ahead I think you can safely not worry about the Giants or Skins passing us, (one of them not both) since they have to play each other, so one of them will get 4 wins. So I think you can guarantee us a top 3 pick right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Jamie_B said: Looking a bit ahead I think you can safely not worry about the Giants or Skins passing us, (one of them not both) since they have to play each other, so one of them will get 4 wins. So I think you can guarantee us a top 3 pick right now. You are correct. At worst we pick 3. If Tua hadn't hurt his hip this would be a 3 player draft at the top. We have the easiest schedule left. I am hopeful that we can find a way to lose one. Start Dolegola guys. Bengals Giants DC Dolphins Dolphins DC Giants Bengals Browns Eagles Cowboys Patriots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WRAPradio Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 To end this season with the #3 pick and then if Chase Young decided to go back to school would be a terrible way to end this season. I guess that would mean we would draft Isaiah Simmons (LB Clemson) or Andrew Thomas (OT Georgia). Either one of those wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize I guess. #3 may be a little high for a LB, but he's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 hours ago, MichaelWeston said: You are correct. At worst we pick 3. If Tua hadn't hurt his hip this would be a 3 player draft at the top. We have the easiest schedule left. I am hopeful that we can find a way to lose one. Start Dolegola guys. Bengals Giants DC Dolphins Dolphins DC Giants Bengals Browns Eagles Cowboys Patriots If we pick 3 and Tua is there, I'm taking him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|High School Harry| Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 I don't think Chase Young goes back to school and risks a life changing injury before becoming a young millionaire thanks to the NFL. I would still take him at 1 but realize Burrow is a more logical choice. If we draft 2 and Burrow goes 1, Chase it is. If we draft 2 and Chase goes 1, hello, Burrow. If we draft 3 I would trade down a bit and hope Simmons or Thomas is there, maybe go Tua if we have another lower first round pick from the trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie_B Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 hours ago, Jason said: If we pick 3 and Tua is there, I'm taking him. I think i'd want to hear from an independent medical staff if he is capable of making a full return, even then I'm not sure I like the idea of taking a guy that seems to get injured more than I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shebengal Posted December 16, 2019 Report Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Jamie_B said: I think i'd want to hear from an independent medical staff if he is capable of making a full return, even then I'm not sure I like the idea of taking a guy that seems to get injured more than I'd like. This. Enough of injured 🤕 1st round draft picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted December 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 The Stripes pretty much have to lose once to secure the #1 spot. If we beat MIA and CLE to finish 3-13, we're almost certain to NOT pick first: (1) The Dolphins have a much softer Strength of Schedule than the Bengals, and with a loss to us and (presumably) a loss to NEP in week 17, they would also be 3-13 and would win the pick over us. (2) If MIA somehow beats NEP next week, the loser of this week's NYG-WAS game would be 3-12 heading into Week 17, and both also have a softer SoS than we do. NYG finishes against PHI, while WAS plays DAL. PHI and DAL are both fighting for their playoff lives, I don't see either of them dropping their week 17 game. The full set of scenarios, assuming the current SoS tiebreaking rank holds (WAS #1, MIA #2, NYG #3, CIN #4), are as follows: CIN #1 pick with: (1) loss to MIA; or (2) loss to CLE; or (3) NYG>WAS (this week) & MIA>NEP (next week) & WAS>DAL (next week); or (4) WAS>NYG (this week) & MIA>NEP (next week) & NYG>PHI (next week) WAS #1 pick with: CIN>MIA (this week) & NYG>WAS (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & DAL>WAS (next week) MIA #1 pick with: CIN>MIA (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week) & one of the following: (1) WAS>NYG (this week); or (2) NYG>WAS (this week) & WAS>DAL (next week) NYG #1 pick with: CIN>MIA (this week) & WAS>NYG (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & MIA>NEP (next week) & PHI>NYG (next week) Because this weekend's NYG-WAS game is essentially an elimination game, we are guaranteed a top-3 pick. We are virtually assured of picking in the top 2... the ONLY scenarios where we pick third are: (1) CIN>MIA (this week) & NYG>WAS (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & DAL>WAS (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week)... Order would be 1-WAS 2-MIA 3-CIN (2) CIN>MIA (this week) & WAS>NYG (next week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & PHI>NYG (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week)... Order would be 1-MIA 2-NYG 3-CIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted December 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 By the way, if somehow the Giants and Redskins play themselves to a tie, BOTH would be eliminated and it would just be us and Miami for the top 2 spots: CIN #1 with: (1) CIN<MIA (this week); or (2) CIN<CLE (next week); or (3) NYG=WAS (this week) and MIA>NEP (next week) MIA #1 with: CIN>MIA (this week) & NYG=WAS (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week) If we tie the Fish, we clinch the #1 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|High School Harry| Posted December 18, 2019 Report Share Posted December 18, 2019 5 hours ago, AmishBengalFan said: The Stripes pretty much have to lose once to secure the #1 spot. If we beat MIA and CLE to finish 3-13, we're almost certain to NOT pick first: (1) The Dolphins have a much softer Strength of Schedule than the Bengals, and with a loss to us and (presumably) a loss to NEP in week 17, they would also be 3-13 and would win the pick over us. (2) If MIA somehow beats NEP next week, the loser of this week's NYG-WAS game would be 3-12 heading into Week 17, and both also have a softer SoS than we do. NYG finishes against PHI, while WAS plays DAL. PHI and DAL are both fighting for their playoff lives, I don't see either of them dropping their week 17 game. The full set of scenarios, assuming the current SoS tiebreaking rank holds (WAS #1, MIA #2, NYG #3, CIN #4), are as follows: CIN #1 pick with: (1) loss to MIA; or (2) loss to CLE; or (3) NYG>WAS (this week) & MIA>NEP (next week) & WAS>DAL (next week); or (4) WAS>NYG (this week) & MIA>NEP (next week) & NYG>PHI (next week) WAS #1 pick with: CIN>MIA (this week) & NYG>WAS (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & DAL>WAS (next week) MIA #1 pick with: CIN>MIA (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week) & one of the following: (1) WAS>NYG (this week); or (2) NYG>WAS (this week) & WAS>DAL (next week) NYG #1 pick with: CIN>MIA (this week) & WAS>NYG (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & MIA>NEP (next week) & PHI>NYG (next week) Because this weekend's NYG-WAS game is essentially an elimination game, we are guaranteed a top-3 pick. We are virtually assured of picking in the top 2... the ONLY scenarios where we pick third are: (1) CIN>MIA (this week) & NYG>WAS (this week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & DAL>WAS (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week)... Order would be 1-WAS 2-MIA 3-CIN (2) CIN>MIA (this week) & WAS>NYG (next week) & CIN>CLE (next week) & PHI>NYG (next week) & NEP>MIA (next week)... Order would be 1-MIA 2-NYG 3-CIN Fantastic post. My mind is still spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristolBoy Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I’m amazed some people are worried that we lose the top spot. How do people seriously believe that this team, having won 2 games in about 400 days, will suddenly win 2 in 8 days??! Ain’t gonna happen. Most likely sequence of events are that we lose by a score to Miami and then humiliated by Cleveland. Dalton gets picked 6 times, the TE corps drop 8 gimme’s, Boyd gets targeted just twice, Mixon runs for 150 against Miami and then only gets 10 touches against Cleveland, BJ Webb busts 13 coverages and our LB’s miss 11 tackles. Fear not fellow Bengals, Pick 1 will be ours. If anyone can justify us winning 2 games in a week I’d like to hear it. 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluhartz Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, BristolBoy said: I’m amazed some people are worried that we lose the top spot. How do people seriously believe that this team, having won 2 games in about 400 days, will suddenly win 2 in 8 days??! Ain’t gonna happen. Most likely sequence of events are that we lose by a score to Miami and then humiliated by Cleveland. Dalton gets picked 6 times, the TE corps drop 8 gimme’s, Boyd gets targeted just twice, Mixon runs for 150 against Miami and then only gets 10 touches against Cleveland, BJ Webb busts 13 coverages and our LB’s miss 11 tackles. Fear not fellow Bengals, Pick 1 will be ours. If anyone can justify us winning 2 games in a week I’d like to hear it. 😉 Because Bengals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
membengal Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I am old enough to remember the end of 2017 when (checks notes) the Bengals rallied to beat the Lions and Ravens in back to back weeks, thus saving Marvin's job. I am also old enough to vividly remember each and every dead cat bounce since 1977. Spoiler alert - there has been a lot of dead kitty bouncing. Fear that they will win two to end this and drop to third overall pick is real. As is the fear that in so doing they won't be the staff coaching at the Senior Bowl and will instead watch it be the Dolphins. They need to lose one more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|High School Harry| Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Best case scenario is losing to the Dolphins, kicking the shit out of the Browns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shebengal Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 50 minutes ago, High School Harry said: Best case scenario is losing to the Dolphins, kicking the shit out of the Browns. This. Although ironically, if the Browns are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, (and they probably will be), hubby will probably root for the Bengals. He does NOT want us to get a QB. Son, on the other hand, will say "F that. I can'r root for the Browns to lose." which he gets from me. But if we lose to Miami, I won't shed any tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyInDC Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 4 hours ago, fluhartz said: Because Bengals it is difficult to argue against your logic in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 6 hours ago, fluhartz said: Because Bengals And Miami is as bad as we are, if not worse, the Clowns are imploding, and Mixon is currently in beast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Dub Posted December 21, 2019 Report Share Posted December 21, 2019 4 hours ago, Jason said: And Miami is as bad as we are, if not worse, the Clowns are imploding, and Mixon is currently in beast mode. If the Browns are imploding we're a smoking crater, and don't worry about Mixon. He will be safely on the sideline should we somehow find ourselves at the goal line again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted December 21, 2019 Report Share Posted December 21, 2019 We have to be in shotgun on goal to go from the one so we might as well spread the defense, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|High School Harry| Posted December 21, 2019 Report Share Posted December 21, 2019 15 hours ago, sparky151 said: We have to be in shotgun on goal to go from the one so we might as well spread the defense, right? Running the draw out of the shotgun at the goal gives him a chance to get up a good head of steam for when he its the solid wall of defenders and loses a half yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky151 Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Bengals on the clock. Joe Burrow, come on down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 We're #1! We're #1! We're #1! We're #1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spicoli Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Time to start printing the Burrow Bengal jerseys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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