Bengals first overall draft pick scenarios...

[Jamie_B]

On 12/24/2019 at 8:02 AM, SF2 said:

Mariota has had 4 different offensive coordinators in 5 years.  His best receiver has been Delanie Walker, a tight end.  Green, Boyd, Eifert and Tate would be light years better than what he has had for weapons.  
 

I agree Fromm is not an option.  Bright lights make him pee.  Honestly I don’t like Burrow at 1. 

I'd like to keep Eiffert around he's shown in limited time he is still a weapon. A good RB and TE for young QBs are essential as they make the progression into being a pro imho

[Jamie_B]

On 12/24/2019 at 8:35 AM, stryker57 said:

dillon wilts under pressure? i understand thats a general perception , but seriouisly since Whit and Zigler left 3 years ago the other general perception has been the OL has sucked.  you cant have it both ways. 

Dalton wilted under pressure when they were here. Every single prime time game or playoff game can be brought up. Good Andy/Bad Andy was and is a legitimate thing.

[|SF2|]

12 minutes ago, OneHeartBeat said:

If you had the choice with a perfectly healthy Tua or Burrow, is Burrow still the chosen one?

No.  Tua has been amazing since day 1.  Stepping into the National Semi final and Championship game at the half to rally Alabama to victories was pretty amazing considering he didn't have much experience his freshman year.   Sabin only does that if he knows he is great.  He has extraordinary short and long range accuracy as well as incredible touch which is rare for most QBs coming out of college.  He doesn't lose his cool under pressure and does a lot of pre snap changes of the play based on his reads, another rare trait in college.  

[Jamie_B]

On 12/24/2019 at 2:40 PM, spicoli said:

Yeah, when he hasn't been hurt. Why would you expect someone to stay consistently healthy in the pros though when he's never done it in college? 

 

It'll all be moot anyways once he goes back to school for another year so I guess it doesn't really matter. 

McShay brought up this exact point and showed a few QBs that had this problem in college of being hurt that in the pros have not been able to be healthy either. It's at the 7:20 mark

 

 

[Jamie_B]

I go back and forth because Yong is just so good

 

But in the end it is also hard to ignore Burrow's highest ever completion percentage in the NCAA

[|SF2|]

9 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

I'd like to keep Eiffert around he's shown in limited time he is still a weapon. A good RB and TE for young QBs are essential as they make the progression into being a pro imho

Considering Eifert has been the top receiving TE and plays less than 50% of the snaps I kind of agree.  It depends on if he wants to continue on a very team friendly INCENTIVE based contract.  I think he ended up making around $4 mil this year but only $1.2 mil was guaranteed at the beginning of the year.  

 

I think a big question is what do you do with John Ross?  Yes, I realize his pay for his final year is guaranteed but is it fair to saddle a coach with a player they simply can't count on the be there?  At least Eifert's contract was 70% incentive driven.   It just makes more sense to go AJ, Boyd, Tate and Erickson on 4 WR sets then keep Ross around hoping he can be that Tyreek Hill type weapon. 

[Jamie_B]

1 minute ago, SF2 said:

Considering Eifert has been the top receiving TE and plays less than 50% of the snaps I kind of agree.  It depends on if he wants to continue on a very team friendly INCENTIVE based contract.  I think he ended up making around $4 mil this year but only $1.2 mil was guaranteed at the beginning of the year.  

 

I think a big question is what do you do with John Ross?  Yes, I realize his pay for his final year is guaranteed but is it fair to saddle a coach with a player they simply can't count on the be there?  At least Eifert's contract was 70% incentive driven.   It just makes more sense to go AJ, Boyd, Tate and Erickson on 4 WR sets then keep Ross around hoping he can be that Tyreek Hill type weapon. 

I think you keep Ross around too, where he plays depends on how much he can be counted on to not drop balls and stay healthy. He and AJ take the top off Defenses. When they were both out it made the field shorter. We need at least one guy we can count on to be able to stretch the field. I will say I am pretty satisfied with the development of Auden Tate though.

[|westside bengal|]

22 minutes ago, OneHeartBeat said:

If you had the choice with a perfectly healthy Tua or Burrow, is Burrow still the chosen one?

Excellent question.  No doubt that Tua has been amazing so far in his career.  He has become a legend since high school.  Joe has worked hard and improved every year.  No matter how good you are in high school or college you still have to keep improving in the NFL.  Peyton did...Brady did...Brees did.  Removing Tua's devastating hip injury from the equation it comes down to which of the 2 can keep improving the most.  Who is closest right now to their peak.

 

I do not have a clue on how to answer that.

[|SF2|]

Just now, Jamie_B said:

I go back and forth because Yong is just so good

 

But in the end it is also hard to ignore Burrow's highest ever completion percentage in the NCAA

I don't disagree about Tua at all.  If he could stay healthy he would be the #1 pick but he cant.  Tua has the SEC ALL-TIME pass completion percentage and NCAA ALL-TIME passing efficiency rating,   Burrow is 23 and has been training at the college level for 5 years, Tua won a National Championship as a true freshman.   Tua was also on pace for another huge year until he got hurt. 

 

Joe Burrow:

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2015	Ohio State	Big Ten	FR	QB
*2016	Ohio State	Big Ten	FR	QB	5	22	28	78.6	226	8.1	9.5	2	0	169.9
*2017	Ohio State	Big Ten	SO	QB	5	7	11	63.6	61	5.5	5.5	0	0	110.2
*2018	LSU	SEC	JR	QB	13	219	379	57.8	2894	7.6	7.9	16	5	133.2
2019	LSU	SEC	SR	QB	13	342	439	77.9	4715	10.7	12.3	48	6	201.5
Career	Overall					590	857	68.8	7896	9.2	10.2	66	11	169.1
	Ohio State					29	39	74.4	287	7.4	8.4	2	0	153.1
	LSU					561	818	68.6	7609	9.3	10.3	64	11	169.8

Tua:

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2017	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	8	49	77	63.6	636	8.3	9.9	11	2	175.0
*2018	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	15	245	355	69.0	3966	11.2	12.8	43	6	199.4
2019	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	9	180	252	71.4	2840	11.3	13.4	33	3	206.9
Career	Alabama					474	684	69.3	7442	10.9	12.7	87	11	199.4

[spicoli]

6 hours ago, Bengal_Buckeye said:

Yeah with all day to throw. Let’s see what he does when getting pressured repeatedly or when his top weapons are not playing.

wtf are you talking about? if you don't think he can play under pressure just go back and watch the Alabama game where they were pretty much up his ass for 4 quarters.....and he still killed them! you need to educate yourself before you go around talking shit about something you're obviously clueless about. 

[Jamie_B]

The injury thing is real we agree he wont be the pick because of that. For me anyway I also just don't trust 'Bama QBs.

[|SF2|]

Just now, spicoli said:

wtf are you talking about? if you don't think he can play under pressure just go back and watch the Alabama game where they were pretty much up his ass for 4 quarters.....and he still killed them! you need to educate yourself before you go around talking shit about something you're obviously clueless about. 

No doubt that game against Alabama made him the front runner for the Heisman.   Where most QBs and teams choke  when Tua and Sabin start charging back, Burrow and Coach O just kept their foots on their throats and answered every score with a their own.

[spicoli]

49 minutes ago, OneHeartBeat said:

If you had the choice with a perfectly healthy Tua or Burrow, is Burrow still the chosen one?

but he's never been perfectly healthy, that's the point. why are you even asking such a question knowing full well what his injury history is?

and now he's coming off of a dislocated hip...no thank you!

 

[spicoli]

2 minutes ago, SF2 said:

No doubt that game against Alabama made him the front runner for the Heisman.   Where most QBs and teams choke  when Tua and Sabin start charging back, Burrow and Coach O just kept their foots on their throats and answered every score with a their own.

Oh it was an absolute clinic on how NOT to choke.....it was amazing to watch.

[|SF2|]

3 minutes ago, spicoli said:

Oh it was an absolute clinic on how NOT to choke.....it was amazing to watch.

Best prevent defense I ever saw.  We are going to prevent you from catching us by scoring a touchdown every time we get the ball.

[spicoli]

I honestly wasn't sold on Burrow until that game. Now, I'm all in.

[PatternMaster]

5 minutes ago, SF2 said:

Considering Eifert has been the top receiving TE and plays less than 50% of the snaps I kind of agree.  It depends on if he wants to continue on a very team friendly INCENTIVE based contract.  I think he ended up making around $4 mil this year but only $1.2 mil was guaranteed at the beginning of the year.  

 

I think a big question is what do you do with John Ross?  Yes, I realize his pay for his final year is guaranteed but is it fair to saddle a coach with a player they simply can't count on the be there?  At least Eifert's contract was 70% incentive driven.   It just makes more sense to go AJ, Boyd, Tate and Erickson on 4 WR sets then keep Ross around hoping he can be that Tyreek Hill type weapon. 

Duke Tobin is very much invested in Ross being successful, it makes Tobin looks like he's good at his job. Ross isn't going anywhere and he's better than Erickson.

[spicoli]

No way in hell Ross is on this team next year, IMO. They'll either trade him for whatever they can get or they'll just cut ties. Either way, he's gone. 

[I_C_Deadpeople]

No way Ross SHOULD be on the team next year but the In reds stubbornness will prevail and he shall return

[|Bunghole|]

Burrow is the guy. Watch his SEC championship game highlights, watch the Alabama highlights, watch his Heisman acceptance speech. Dude is legit.

[PatternMaster]

17 minutes ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

No way Ross SHOULD be on the team next year but the In reds stubbornness will prevail and he shall return

This roster is full of guys who shouldn't be on the team but are.

 

That's my point and how this is an historically awful team. 

 

This front office is more concerned with being right and looking competent than actually winning games. 

[|SF2|]

1 hour ago, PatternMaster said:

Duke Tobin is very much invested in Ross being successful, it makes Tobin looks like he's good at his job. Ross isn't going anywhere and he's better than Erickson.

Better at what?   Erickson has never missed a game.  Ross has missed 25 in 3 years.   If you can't play you aint worth shit.    The cold hard fact is he has already been paid for next year so he will be back but it sends a bad message to the other players seeing a guy who hardly plays getting paid quite a bit when you have guys like Sam Hubbard out their grinding for $900k a year. 

 

I am sure all of the other WRs will talk in glowing terms about what a great guy he is but the only thing the staff should do is pencil him in at the #4 spot and assume someone else will play there most of the season.

 

[PatternMaster]

6 minutes ago, SF2 said:

Better at what?   Erickson has never missed a game.  Ross has missed 25 in 3 years.   If you can't play you aint worth shit.    The cold hard fact is he has already been paid for next year so he will be back but it sends a bad message to the other players seeing a guy who hardly plays getting paid quite a bit when you have guys like Sam Hubbard out their grinding for $900k a year. 

 

I am sure all of the other WRs will talk in glowing terms about what a great guy he is but the only thing the staff should do is pencil him in at the #5 spot and find someone else.  

 

I think Ross is a better athlete, can do more with the ball, and overall is better than Erickson...but you're right about his availability, which ultimately is more important than his ability.

[spicoli]

2 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

No way Ross SHOULD be on the team next year but the In reds stubbornness will prevail and he shall return

They don't do it often but they've cut guys like Ross before. I truly don't believe he's on the 2020 team.. 

[membengal]

Re: discussion of QBs, QB evaluation, and NFL readiness etc, this bit from Robert Mays in The Ringer is on point:

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/12/26/21036419/2019-nfl-season-lessons-lamar-jackson-coaching-seahawks-patriots

 

Quote

1. The days of fixating on what quarterbacks can’t do should be over.

Lamar Jackson’s success with the Ravens will undoubtedly inspire teams to try to find “the next Lamar Jackson.” Yeah … good luck with that. Baltimore’s offense has thrived because Jackson is a special runner and coordinator Greg Roman’s scheme is unlike any other in the NFL, but teams that try to replicate that formula are doomed to fail.

The lesson from Baltimore’s experience with Jackson is that the organization saw an exceptionally talented quarterback, believed in that talent, and built a system designed to maximize it. Jackson wasn’t some small-school prospect who Baltimore discovered by chance. He wasn’t even a supremely gifted, but hard to evaluate anomaly like Patrick Mahomes. Jackson won the goddamn Heisman Trophy. He was the best player in college football for an entire season. Yet instead of focusing on all of his exceptional traits, every other QB-needy team decided to fixate on what they believed Jackson couldn’t do.

It’s not quite as damning, considering he was drafted 12th overall, but it’s similar to what happened with Deshaun Watson in 2017. Watson may not have won the Heisman, but he played in two consecutive national championship games, knocked off Alabama in the second, and finished his career as one of the most productive college quarterbacks of all time. Then, when draft time rolled around, the Bears decided that Mitchell Trubisky was a better choice to lead their franchise. All Watson has done since is carry the Texans to two playoff berths in a row and develop into one of the most exhilarating players in the NFL.

The message here isn’t that teams should ignore a prospect’s glaring weaknesses. It’s that when a player is showing you—through elite production against the best teams in the country—that he’s great, maybe you should believe him. Quarterback evaluation is obviously more complex than that, but in the cases of Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson, teams made it more convoluted than needed. Lamar Jackson was one of the best college football players of the decade, and the Ravens have given him the space to show everyone why. And they may just win a Super Bowl because of it."

Re: the bold - that's where I am on Burrow. People can pick at nits with him all they want - (hasn't started enough, doesn't have Aaron Rodgers' arm) but in the end, what he does well and at an elite level and against the very best competition that college football had to offer was complete passes, throw TDs, and be as accurate as any QB has been in the college game ever. He looks like a slightly taller and slightly more athletic Drew Brees. If the Bengals overthink this and pass on him, they deserve the scorn and complete abandonment of the franchise that is on the precipice of occurring now.  If you have a chance to TRY and find a franchise QB, you take the opportunity. Hopefully it works out. But you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.