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Die Stealers, Die (2019 Edition)

AmishBengalFan

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AmishBengalFan Hall Of Fame

AmishBengalFan

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Five of six AFC spots have been secured, with one Wild Card spot still in play.

The Stealers and Titans (both 8-6) are both fighting for it.  The Raiders and Current Browns (6-8) are mathematically alive but just barely... let's get rid of them first:

 

PS - See this website for a really cool flowchart-style graphic for each team still in contention:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/21/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture-week-16-trees.html

 

Oakland is eliminated if any of these happen:

Titans beat Saints

Stealers beat Jets

Panthers beat Colts

Chargers beat Raiders

Stealers beat Ravens (next week)

Jaguars beat Colts (next week)

Titans beat Texans (next week)

Broncos beat Raiders (next week)

AND THEN they have to win a 6th level Strength Of Schedule tiebreak that seems 65% likely to fall in their favor

 

The Cleveland team is eliminated if any of these happen:

Ravens beat Browns

Titans beat Saints

Stealers beat Jets

Panthers beat Colts

Bengals beat Browns (next week)

Stealers beat Ravens (next week)

Titans beat Texans (next week)

Jaguars beat Colts (next week)

 

If we assume the Raiders and Current Browns are not going to be a factor, then it's a VERY CONVOLUTED set of tiebreakers between the Titans and Stealers.  If they finish with the same record, it will matter who they beat and lose to, because they did not play head-to-head, they share 3-2 record against common opponents (Browns, Colts, Chargers and Bills), they're conference records are nearly identical (PIT 6-4 v TEN 6-5), and the Titans have a vastly superior Strength of Victory ( .442 v .305).  So both teams can qualify if they have a better record.  If they have the same record, PIT qualifies if they finish with a better AFC record (two wins, or one win and a TEN loss next week).  If they have the same record and the same AFC record, TEN likely qualifies on SoV. 

 

Here are the scenarios:

 

#1:  Both PIT and TEN win this week  (PIT and TEN both 9-6, 0-0 HTH, 3-2 ComOp, PIT 7-4 v 6-5 AFC).

--- PIT qualifies with a win (vs BAL) or a TEN loss (vs HOU) because the tiebreaker goes to them (AFC Record)

--- TEN qualifies with a win & a PIT Loss (Needs a better record due to losing the tiebreak)

 

#2: PIT wins, TEN loses (PIT 9-6, TEN 8-7)

--- PIT qualifies with a win (vs BAL) or a TEN loss (vs HOU)  (better record)

--- TEN qualifies with a win & a PIT loss (because the 9-7 tiebreaker goes to them on SoV)

 

#3: PIT loses and TEN win (TEN 9-6, PIT 8-7.  Both 6-5 AFC)

-- TEN qualfies with a win or a PIT loss (better record)

-- PIT qualifies with a win & a TEN loss (because now the 9-7 tiebreaker goes to them on AFC Record)

 

#4: Both PIT and TEN lose this week (PIT and TEN both 8-7, and 6-5 AFC)

-- TEN qualfies with a win or a PIT loss (because the tiebreaker goes to them on SoV)

-- PIT qualifies with a win & a TEN loss (needs a better record)

 

 

To simplify:

 

 

The TEN/NOS game DOES NOT MATTER this week.

 

If PIT beats NYJ:  PIT eliminated next week with a loss & a TEN win

If PIT loses to NYJ:  PIT eliminated next week with a loss OR a TEN win

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AmishBengalFan Hall Of Fame

AmishBengalFan

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The ONLY wrinkle to all of the above is in case PIT and TEN both lose out...  TEN has to be certain to finish 2nd in the AFC South ahead of IND to be in the mix.  So in the TEN 0-2 + PIT 0-2 scenario, the Colts can put PIT in the playoffs if they finish 2-0 (vs CAR this week, vs JAX next week).  Let's worry about that later.

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AmishBengalFan Hall Of Fame

AmishBengalFan

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Okay... Oakland somehow navigated through the minefield and has come through Week 16 clinging to a playoff hope.  Here are the updated scenarios for the three teams still left:

 

TENNESSEE has the easiest path because they win a 2-way tiebreaker against Pittsburgh.  A win and they're in.  A loss and a Steeler loss keeps them in the mix, but they need to ensure that they finish 2nd in their division (IND is a game back and holds the tiebreaker).  TEN's scenarios are:

 

1) TEN win OR
2) PIT loss + IND loss

 

PITTSBURGH has the next-easiest path.  If they finish alone at 9-7 they're in.  If they tie at 8-8 and TEN gets knocked out by 2nd-place IND they're in UNLESS OAK also wins and messes around with the tiebreakers.  PIT's scenarios are:

 

1) PIT win + TEN loss OR
2) TEN loss + IND win + OAK loss OR
3) TEN loss + IND win + PIT ties OAK in strength-of-victory tiebreaker (requires ALL of the following teams to win: MIN, GBP, KCC + MIA)

 

OAKLAND has a razor-thin chance.  They need to get to 8-8, they need TEN and PIT to fall to 8-8, they need TEN to be eliminated by 2nd-place IND, and they need to secure the SoV tiebreaker over PIT.  OAK's scenarios are:

 

1) OAK win + PIT loss + TEN loss + IND win + OAK clinches strength-of-victory tiebreaker over PIT (requires ONE of the following teams to win: CHI, DET, LAC or NEP)

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AmishBengalFan Hall Of Fame

AmishBengalFan

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On 12/25/2019 at 12:55 AM, saphead said:

These dumb dicks better not back their way in. 

Tracking this real-time.  To shut the door on the back-in scenario, we need ONE winner from the left-hand column:

 

CHI 18-6 MIN (3Q 3:00)

DET 17-3 GBP (3Q 9:00)

LAC 14-17 KCC (3Q 8:00)

NEP 10-17 MIA (3Q 5:00)

 

 Bears and Lions are doing well...

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AmishBengalFan Hall Of Fame

AmishBengalFan

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The Pats dont care.  They just scored a TD on a gimmick play, throwing a pass to a LB who checked-in to block.  Yeah, its tied at 17, but NEP is just playing with their food.  They may accidentally win but I dont think theyre trying.

 

Reminds me of many years ago, when we needed NEP to win their finale for us to get in and they fucked around, letting Flutie drop-kick a FG or PAT.  They didnt care, lost, and killed us.

 

Oh, KCC just scored.

 

CHI 18-6 MIN (3Q 1:00)

DET 17-3 GBP (3Q 8:00)

LAC 14-24 KCC (3Q 6:00)

NEP 17-17 MIA (3Q 2:00)

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