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The Case Against Drafting Burrow - Red Flags


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33 minutes ago, WRAPradio said:

Only having one year of production out of five years is irrelevant?  I'd venture to say without looking that most of the successful QBs in the NFL today had more than one good year in college.  Yet, it's difficult to find players who had one good year in college that are anything more than average in the NFL.  Every case is different and that doesn't mean Burrow can't or won't be great.  It's just another variable you put into the equation when weighing if you want to stake the franchise's future on someone. 

I figured the best way to explore this question would be to go and find the data. So I did. I looked at the collegiate statistics of most current starting(ish) NFL quarterbacks. For each of them, I determined (given subjective, case-by-case criteria) how many seasons they had that were markedly better than Joe Burrow's 2018 -- his first year at LSU. By that standard then, for the sake of the current dialogue, I define the "number of big seasons" each of them had in college.

 

Tom Brady - none
Ryan Fitzpatrick - can't find
Josh Allen - one
Sam Darnold - two

Ben Roethlisberger - three
Lamar Jackson - two
Baker Mayfield - three
Andy Dalton - two

Ryan Tannehill - one
Jacoby Brissett - zero
Gardner Minshew - one
Deshaun Watson - two

Derek Carr - three
Philip Rivers - one
Joe Flacco - can't find
Patrick Mahomes - two

Dak Prescott - two
Carson Wentz - two
Dwayne Haskins - one
Daniel Jones - zero

Aaron Rodgers - one, two if I'm generous
Kirk Cousins - two
Matt Stafford - one
Mitchell Trubisky - one

Cam Newton - one
Drew Brees - two or three? (turnover machine)
Jameis Winston - two
Matt Ryan - one

Russell Wilson - three
Jimmy Garoppolo - at least one, can't find 2013
Kyler Murray - one
Jared Goff - two

 

Bold - clearly a great player who has performed at an MVP level at least one year in the NFL (fewer than two great collegiate seasons)

Italics - either a solid NFL player or one who shows a lot of promise (fewer than two great collegiate seasons)

 

To me, this list is all over the place. If I could scatter plot it I'd expect a very low correlation.

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@WRAPradio- re: your first concern - this was posted in the Burrow thread on Monday and I dug it out to put it here - does this address your worry as to the leap from Junior year to Senior year production? It is from Peter Kings' column and a conversation he had with Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network:

 

Quote

Jeremiah: “He was training an hour from my house with [QB coach] Jordan Palmer. He was out there with Sam Darnold and Josh Allen and Kyle Allen. I went up there and watched him work out, throw. I had a chance to visit with him for 20 minutes. I said, ‘Joe, you’re gonna get asked this question at the combine: Why the unbelievable leap from last year to this year?’

“He said, first of all, he’s a grad transfer. Most grad transfers transfer in the spring. He said, ‘I got to LSU after the freshmen had already reported for full camp.’ So you talk about trying to learn everything in a heartbeat and try to get to know your teammates, and then plug in and be ready to play. That’s the first part of it. Second part, he hadn’t played much football in the previous three years. There was some rust. Okay, this makes sense. And then schematically, and this is the big one, they were in a lot of seven-man protection in that offense last year. Burrow, his greatest gift, and you can see it this year when you watch him, is he has the vision to be able to take a snapshot of the entire field, to see everything, to process, and to throw accurately. Well, when you’re in seven-man protection and you limit the number of guys that can get out on a route, you’re limiting the answers you can give somebody. He was handicapped by them trying to mass-protect him. There’s no room for him to use his athletic ability to take off and go if you want. There’s no room for him to slide around, more around, find windows. It was just a congested brand of football.

“And then, you look at this year. He gets [passing-game coordinator] Joe Brady in there. He becomes a master of the offense. At the beginning of the season, they were in a bunch of six-man protection, which he’s playing really well. And he said eventually Joe Brady said in week three or four, ‘Let’s just go five-man protection. Let’s get everybody out into the route.’ When they did that, [he] completed about 80 percent from that point on.

“His super-power is his ability to see the entire field, to work through progressions, and then throw the ball accurately. So they kind of unlocked that super-power this last year. And the rest is history.”

I told Jeremiah: “You’ve got to tell America that on TV this week.”



 

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I think the thing about Burrow is he seems to have that "IT" factor. He had gone to OSU with high expectations and fell on some unfortunate hard times. I really felt he would have been the starter if not for the injury. With the transfer to LSU, he basically was staring over, but he grabbed that opportunity and obviously ran with it. I'll admit I did watch him last year, it's the SEC. I did may more attention this year after he started lighting everything up. He does not seem to get rattled, no matter what is thrown at him by the "D". We won't see him throwing the ball away on 4th down, he'll give his receivers a chance. The NC game I feel showed a lot. LSU did not start well, neither did Burrow, but once he figured it out he showed what he is made of. I think the kid is going to be just fine for the Bengals, small hands and all.

Just my two cents, for what it's worth.

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5 hours ago, membengal said:

@WRAPradio- re: your first concern - this was posted in the Burrow thread on Monday and I dug it out to put it here - does this address your worry as to the leap from Junior year to Senior year production? It is from Peter Kings' column and a conversation he had with Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network:

 



 

I like it.  As long as we don't try to fit a square peg into a round hole (i.e. max protect all the time or something he doesn't do well) I think he'll be fine.  I don't know that he's the can't miss, generational QB that comes out once every so often, but if he can be a consistent top-10 QB that would be great.  Thanks for finding that article. 

 

15 hours ago, OU_Stripes said:

I figured the best way to explore this question would be to go and find the data. So I did. I looked at the collegiate statistics of most current starting(ish) NFL quarterbacks. For each of them, I determined (given subjective, case-by-case criteria) how many seasons they had that were markedly better than Joe Burrow's 2018 -- his first year at LSU. By that standard then, for the sake of the current dialogue, I define the "number of big seasons" each of them had in college.

 

Tom Brady - none
Ryan Fitzpatrick - can't find
Josh Allen - one
Sam Darnold - two

Ben Roethlisberger - three
Lamar Jackson - two
Baker Mayfield - three
Andy Dalton - two

Ryan Tannehill - one
Jacoby Brissett - zero
Gardner Minshew - one
Deshaun Watson - two

Derek Carr - three
Philip Rivers - one
Joe Flacco - can't find
Patrick Mahomes - two

Dak Prescott - two
Carson Wentz - two
Dwayne Haskins - one
Daniel Jones - zero

Aaron Rodgers - one, two if I'm generous
Kirk Cousins - two
Matt Stafford - one
Mitchell Trubisky - one

Cam Newton - one
Drew Brees - two or three? (turnover machine)
Jameis Winston - two
Matt Ryan - one

Russell Wilson - three
Jimmy Garoppolo - at least one, can't find 2013
Kyler Murray - one
Jared Goff - two

 

Bold - clearly a great player who has performed at an MVP level at least one year in the NFL (fewer than two great collegiate seasons)

Italics - either a solid NFL player or one who shows a lot of promise (fewer than two great collegiate seasons)

 

To me, this list is all over the place. If I could scatter plot it I'd expect a very low correlation.

Great research that I was too lazy to do.  Interesting stats there.  I'd argue against Cam being "great".  He did lead a team to a SB appearance, but to me he's a below average QB that had an amazing skill set that made him a great football player that season.  Reading that back it sounds like total BS, but I really believe that. I think you're right though, there doesn't seem to be a strong correlation one way or the other. 

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1 minute ago, WRAPradio said:

Here was our boy David Klingler -- I guess you could say he had two years, but that completion percentage is brutal.

 

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He couldn’t control that bazooka he had hanging off of that right shoulder. What an athlete that dude was though, it’s just too bad he didn’t like football. Mike Brown probably would have realized that if he just would have used someone other than Jerry Jones Drugstore List to get his information. 

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5 hours ago, crazycat said:

I don't feel that Burrow will be like Akili. One reason, didn't Akili get something like a 2 on the wonderluc?

Don't you get like 5  points for tying your shoes? Or did he wear slippers?

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On your hand size bullet point - heard this AM on the cincyjungle pod that in 28 starts in the SEC, Burrow had 5 fumbles. Herbert, with his 10 inch hands, in 43 starts in the Pac 10 had 26 fumbles. So, to the extent ball security is an issue as a worry, doesn't seem to be any stats/film to back that up as being a problem. 

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1 hour ago, membengal said:

On your hand size bullet point - heard this AM on the cincyjungle pod that in 28 starts in the SEC, Burrow had 5 fumbles. Herbert, with his 10 inch hands, in 43 starts in the Pac 10 had 26 fumbles. So, to the extent ball security is an issue as a worry, doesn't seem to be any stats/film to back that up as being a problem. 

I hear you and I'm glad he didn't have a fumbling issue.  I'd venture to day Herbert faced a lot more pressure at Oregon than Joe did at LSU.  With that being said, Joe played probably the toughest schedule this past season and the fact he was secure with the ball is a great thing. 

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5 minutes ago, WRAPradio said:

I hear you and I'm glad he didn't have a fumbling issue.  I'd venture to day Herbert faced a lot more pressure at Oregon than Joe did at LSU.  With that being said, Joe played probably the toughest schedule this past season and the fact he was secure with the ball is a great thing. 

The stats don't back that up either.

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On 2/26/2020 at 10:33 PM, OU_Stripes said:

I figured the best way to explore this question would be to go and find the data. So I did. I looked at the collegiate statistics of most current starting(ish) NFL quarterbacks. For each of them, I determined (given subjective, case-by-case criteria) how many seasons they had that were markedly better than Joe Burrow's 2018 -- his first year at LSU. By that standard then, for the sake of the current dialogue, I define the "number of big seasons" each of them had in college.

 

Tom Brady - none
Ryan Fitzpatrick - can't find
Josh Allen - one
Sam Darnold - two

Ben Roethlisberger - three
Lamar Jackson - two
Baker Mayfield - three
Andy Dalton - two

Ryan Tannehill - one
Jacoby Brissett - zero
Gardner Minshew - one
Deshaun Watson - two

Derek Carr - three
Philip Rivers - one
Joe Flacco - can't find
Patrick Mahomes - two

Dak Prescott - two
Carson Wentz - two
Dwayne Haskins - one
Daniel Jones - zero

Aaron Rodgers - one, two if I'm generous
Kirk Cousins - two
Matt Stafford - one
Mitchell Trubisky - one

Cam Newton - one
Drew Brees - two or three? (turnover machine)
Jameis Winston - two
Matt Ryan - one

Russell Wilson - three
Jimmy Garoppolo - at least one, can't find 2013
Kyler Murray - one
Jared Goff - two

 

Bold - clearly a great player who has performed at an MVP level at least one year in the NFL (fewer than two great collegiate seasons)

Italics - either a solid NFL player or one who shows a lot of promise (fewer than two great collegiate seasons)

 

To me, this list is all over the place. If I could scatter plot it I'd expect a very low correlation.

The bold designation is a bit odd.  Many of these QBs have performed at a very high level to include the Raptist.   Not sure why you decided that somehow mattered. 

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For me hand size, physiologically speaking, isn't about keeping the ball safe (thats mostly smarts and feel) but rather the last link in the chain of high end throw velocity.   You can have the physicals to whip your arm with power and speed, but if you don't have the lanky fingers to wrap around and sure grip the ball, allowing the player to deposit, at the release point, all that force  generated the athelete will have to be a little more floaty and careful, otherwise the ball will be errant, or worse slip out. He'll have to take something off to maintain control.  It's the big ol wingspread of the hands, the final link, that allows the player to really rare back and throw ropes. I think we can all see this.  He ain't no bad mamba jamba shooting lazer beams all over the field.  We won't be getting a Geoff George or Carson Palmer, Zip wise,  with our first pick. But then again neither won anything of renown.   

 

What i like about this guy is his guts, his demeanor, certifiable accuracy, his out of the pocket chicanery, and especially his foresight.  From what i've seen he's got a knack for putting the ball, routinely,  where it ought to rightly be given how the play unfolds.  It's like he's a step ahead, and on the right spot when it gets there.  I'm all in.

 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, SF2 said:

The bold designation is a bit odd.  Many of these QBs have performed at a very high level to include the Raptist.   Not sure why you decided that somehow mattered. 

The point was to indicate that there are numerous QBs with only one great collegiate season who have been great in the NFL. Ben had more than one such collegiate season.

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On 2/26/2020 at 12:37 PM, WRAPradio said:

I get it, Burrow will be the pick, but as we're about to get into the combine, I'm starting to have reservations.  There's are just so many red flags.  One flag by itself isn't a big deal, but when you have three of four it starts to worry me.  Let's look at the flags (that everyone won't agree with).

 

1.  One year of production.  He was in college for five years and had one good year...hell, he only played for two years.  He was behind multiple solid QBs at tOSU, but for a #1 pick you would think when he got on the field he'd do more than just run at tOSU.  Then his first year at LSU, he was an average QB.  So what clicked in year two?  Did he really just get better all of a sudden?  Was it the scheme change?  Can he only play in a specific scheme?  It just brings some questions to mind.

 

2.  He had tons of talent around him.  This has been the argument for a lot of Alabama players that didn't make it; they had so much talent on those teams, the game is just easier.  When they don't have as much of a talent advantage they're not able to adjust (see Trent Richardson, AJM, etc.).  The scary thing is, he had talent like that for all five years of his college career and STILL only had one great (historic) year.

 

3.  Arm strength.  I don't think  you have to have a great arm to be successful in the NFL, see Drew Brees, Joe Montana, etc.  It can help, but it's not necessary.  However this will limit some of the things you can do on the field.  If this is the only red flag, so what?  But if you're an average to above average QB as is, you might want to have a strong arm.  I'm sure it can get better, but I don't think he'll ever have a top-10 arm.

 

4.  Hand Size.  I think this is the most overrated "thing", but let's think about this logically.  The smaller your hands are, the harder it is to grip something with size, like a football.  There's not guarantee that this will be an issue, but it's something else to think about.  If the ball slips out of his hand 3 times a season because of this, that may not be a big deal...but it might be.  Who knows?  Again, if this was the only red flag I'd just look over it without giving it a second thought.   

 

I hope JB comes in and becomes a HOF QB for us.  With all of these red flags it just makes me nervous and I hope the front office is doing their due diligence and are at least fielding calls for that #1 pick.  If you can trade down to 5 (or 4, 3, 2) and still get a QB (Tua, Herbert (?)) and you can still come away with multiple 1st and 2nd rounders over the next two years, it's something that I hope is seriously considered.  Is Tua (QB), Chaisson (Edge), Queen (LB) and Cushenberry (IOL) better than getting just Burrow for a team that has multiple holes to fill?

 

 

im sure all this was argued, but man.... almost all of this is nonsense..

 

1. ...2 years of production, and a free built in adversity bonus point. he started for two years, but before that lets talk about OSU, burrow isnt an option QB, OSU runs an option offense, and he sat behind 3 heisman candidates? cant knock that at all, but back to his TWO years of production, so he transfers out, across country, away from home state, new coach, teammates system, everything, starts, throws for almost 3000 yards, and has above a 3:1 td:int ratio.... what exactly were you looking for in that scenario? and also why do you disregard an entire season of play? not like a bunch of huge LSU fans watching around here.. but lets keep going... he then comes back, new system AGAIN, and blows it out of the water. he produced well in two systems in two years, staff changes, and after settling in went nuts. its a pro style offense, its not alabamas college-fit offense that translates to shit for QBs in the nfl, its not a spread, its not a shotgun only, its a pro ready offense. best possible scenario, he worked under center, he had to make readds pre snap and post snap. if take 1 year of that over 4 years of OSU qb all day.

 

2. i mean.... ok...this can only be a factor if you have that talent around you and you FAIL, having talent around you and succeeding tremendously is whats supposed to happen.  clemson boy doesnt have tons of talent around him? 

 

3. his arm strength is fine. its stronger than andys, so you cant even bring this up. gtfo

 

4. knock it off. never had fumble problems, never had accuracy problems. pointless combine measurables. itll just be nice to have a qb who isnt getting  passes swatted.

 

 

whether burrow pans out or not is to be seen, however none of these are of any meaning. tom brady had about the same college starting career with obviously far less stats, aaron rogers was only IN college for 2 years, never threw for 3k yards, never threw 25 tds.... this can go on forever..

 

there is no historical baseline for qb hand size, no measurable for talent around you, for years starting vs production, its all just fluff..

 

either you like what ability the guy has or not.. i dont see any red flags what so ever in brains or physical ability?

 

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5 hours ago, GoBengals said:

 

 

im sure all this was argued, but man.... almost all of this is nonsense..

 

1. ...2 years of production, and a free built in adversity bonus point. he started for two years, but before that lets talk about OSU, burrow isnt an option QB, OSU runs an option offense, and he sat behind 3 heisman candidates? cant knock that at all, but back to his TWO years of production, so he transfers out, across country, away from home state, new coach, teammates system, everything, starts, throws for almost 3000 yards, and has above a 3:1 td:int ratio.... what exactly were you looking for in that scenario? and also why do you disregard an entire season of play? not like a bunch of huge LSU fans watching around here.. but lets keep going... he then comes back, new system AGAIN, and blows it out of the water. he produced well in two systems in two years, staff changes, and after settling in went nuts. its a pro style offense, its not alabamas college-fit offense that translates to shit for QBs in the nfl, its not a spread, its not a shotgun only, its a pro ready offense. best possible scenario, he worked under center, he had to make readds pre snap and post snap. if take 1 year of that over 4 years of OSU qb all day.

Joe Burrow completed 57% of his passes for 2800 yards at LSU where he threw 16 total TDs vs. 5 picks.  Great ratio, but 16 TDs leaves a lot to be desired and 57% is bad.  Yes, it was an archaic system for all intents and purposes, but "great" QBs figure out a way to at least get to 60% when you have talent around you.  I'm not sure how you consider that a good season.  On top of that he was handing the ball off to Leonard Fornette (who had 1100 yards) and throwing to Justin Jefferson.  To me, those aren't good numbers with the kind of talent he had around him.  I know he got there late, but I'd disagree saying that's a good season.  People weren't game planning for JB and he threw for a whopping 16 TDs.  Maybe we just have different standards for what a good season is. 

5 hours ago, GoBengals said:

 

2. i mean.... ok...this can only be a factor if you have that talent around you and you FAIL, having talent around you and succeeding tremendously is whats supposed to happen.  clemson boy doesnt have tons of talent around him? 

Not sure why Trevor Lawrence is in this conversation.  Burrow was better than him this year and up to his point TL has only had one good season.  TL has better physical traits, but that may or may not mean anything at all, let's see how he does in his third year.

 

3. his arm strength is fine. its stronger than andys, so you cant even bring this up. gtfo

Just watching the games (an inexact science) I don't think it is, but I don't have any numbers to prove this.  What makes you think Joe's arm is stronger?  Don't forget about the difference in where the hash marks are.  When Andy came back in for Finley you could tell how much stronger AD's arm was.  Not saying Burrow has Finley's arm, but Dalton's arm is probably slightly below average.

 

4. knock it off. never had fumble problems, never had accuracy problems. pointless combine measurables. itll just be nice to have a qb who isnt getting  passes swatted.

Agreed, I hope you're right.

 

whether burrow pans out or not is to be seen, however none of these are of any meaning. tom brady had about the same college starting career with obviously far less stats, aaron rogers was only IN college for 2 years, never threw for 3k yards, never threw 25 tds.... this can go on forever..

 

there is no historical baseline for qb hand size, no measurable for talent around you, for years starting vs production, its all just fluff..

 

either you like what ability the guy has or not.. i dont see any red flags what so ever in brains or physical ability?

If you go back and read my post I believe I said that any one of these by itself isn't a big deal, but when you start combining so many concerns it should make you at least take pause.  That doesn't mean don't draft him, that doesn't me he's going to suck, it just means don't just ignore potential flags because you think he's cool and NFL Networks says that's who we should draft.  He could be a HOF'er and we'd start to have all new data points for some of this stuff...or he could be Akili Smith.  None of us know. 

 

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On 3/9/2020 at 1:07 PM, GoBengals said:

 

 

im sure all this was argued, but man.... almost all of this is nonsense..

 

1. ...2 years of production, and a free built in adversity bonus point. he started for two years, but before that lets talk about OSU, burrow isnt an option QB, OSU runs an option offense,


 

I forgot to add, Cardale Jones and Dwayne Haskins weren’t option QBs either and set records or won a championship at tOSU so that’s a bad excuse for Joe. Plus the fact Joe is probably more athletic than Andy who did run a spread option at TCU so if he had to, he could have. Maybe not the best use for him, but Joe’s way more athletic than Cardale and Haskins at the very least. 

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All these red flags are legitimate issues, but when balanced against the positive?  Still a no brainer to draft him.  There is no sure thing draft pick.  Shit happens.  See Ki Jana Carter.  Burrow is the best player available at the most important position on the field that happens to be a position of need for the Bengals.  Outright foolishness to pick anyone else. 

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