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2021 Mock Draft Simulators


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9 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/4/8/22369418/duke-tobin-talks-o-line-depth-in-draft-confirms-he-gets-input-from-joe-burrow

 

While I recently said the Bengals’ recent Draft strategy suggests the team will take Penei Sewell, after comments made by Duke Tobin on Dan Hoard’s podcast, it appears they are moving away from that approach.

If you put Tobin’s comments together, it seems they are now favoring taking Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick.

This is because:

  1. Tobin believes the Draft is filled with talented offensive linemen who can be starters, even as deep as the second and third rounds, as he said, “There will be guys available in the second round, third round that we have starter grades on.”
  2. He is happy with the direction of the offensive line and hinted that they will continue to improve it in free agency. “We think having healthy guys there and then the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and (there will) still be additions to be named later,” he said.
  3. He mentioned that quarterback Joe Burrow is involved in the evaluation process, saying, “I talk to a lot of people throughout the process. He’s an engaging guy, so I like to engage with engaging guys. We’ll just leave it at that.”
  4. The Bengals probably aren’t going to trade down. If they do, it’ll be just a couple of spots to still get the guy they want. “We’ll be careful not to get overly greedy and get out of a spot to where we maybe lose a premier player,” Tobin said. “We feel like we’ll get one of the premier players in this draft.”
  5. If you combine the above with insider Malik Wright’s insistence that the Bengals aren’t targeting Kyle Pitts, this results in them taking Ja’Marr Chase, the most coveted non-OL talent that should interest the team. Unless, of course, they’re seriously considering Micah Parsons

 

Regarding point 2, I guess Tobin's ego won't allow him to admit the O-line has been consistently bad for years. Thus compounding the problem. Bobby Hart is "phenomenal", right?

 

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31 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

Regarding point 2, I guess Tobin's ego won't allow him to admit the O-line has been consistently bad for years. Thus compounding the problem. Bobby Hart is "phenomenal", right?

 

 

And the people above him won't admit that his drafting has been consistently bad, because that means their hiring has been consistently bad.. 

 

It's a lack of accountability that filters all the way down.

 

That's the culture.

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So the 2nd and 3rd rounds are now the later rounds in the draft?

 

Quote

1. Tobin believes the Draft is filled with talented offensive linemen who can be starters, even as deep as the second and third rounds, as he said, “There will be guys available in the second round, third round that we have starter grades on.”

 

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I've been reading all of your posts on this.  I see both the Chase and the Sewell sides.  Its close to me, but I think if Sewell is there, I'd be matriculating towards the Podium with his name on a Card.  One, we need to protect Burrow, and even though I like Williams, I don't like his Injury history.  Secondly, the Bengals have rarely done well picking Skill players outside of QBs in the first round, AJ being an Exception.  Plus, I think one of the three other speed receivers Will be there at 38, and we've almost always done well with second round receivers.  

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1 hour ago, kennethmw said:

I've been reading all of your posts on this.  I see both the Chase and the Sewell sides.  Its close to me, but I think if Sewell is there, I'd be matriculating towards the Podium with his name on a Card.  One, we need to protect Burrow, and even though I like Williams, I don't like his Injury history.  Secondly, the Bengals have rarely done well picking Skill players outside of QBs in the first round, AJ being an Exception.  Plus, I think one of the three other speed receivers Will be there at 38, and we've almost always done well with second round receivers.  

 

Glad to see we can agree on something!

 

Worst case with Sewell is that we play both him & JW, with one going inside until Reiff either leaves or Sewell outplays him. All 3 of them could easily be starting on this OL.  Any of those outcomes sounds like the opposite of a problem.

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The Bengals Top priority after 2020 was building.an oline that could Protect JB....Protect JB....Protect JB..

First and.... Foremost.........

 

Sewell ia the very best OT or  Olineman in the draft  for that matter..

Like i stated awhile back..

There isnt any fuckin 1A..

 

Looking at next years draft  he'd be all alone as top top OT or any Olineman for that matter..

There won't be a 1A. 

 

The task of sorting out who plays where would be a delightful dilemma for Pollack to have..

He could form a line of 

Sewell...Williams...Hopkins...Big Q

and Reiff..

Thats very formidable on pass protection and run game..

 

Draft the young bull to make this happen and let JB elavate his gifted Magical skills..

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Not loving the Sample? LOL

I think Sample was drafted for his blocking skills and not much else. No idea why you had to do that in the 2nd round tho.

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1 hour ago, gupps said:

I think Sample was drafted for his blocking skills and not much else. No idea why you had to do that in the 2nd round tho.

I m trying to remember but I think he had a great athletic profile and caught nearly everything thrown his way....although that was almost nothing thrown his way. 

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48 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

I m trying to remember but I think he had a great athletic profile and caught nearly everything thrown his way....although that was almost nothing thrown his way. 


hard to catch passes when you’re forced into being used as an extra OL. 

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6 hours ago, claptonrocks said:

The Bengals Top priority after 2020 was building.an oline that could Protect JB....Protect JB....Protect JB.

[clip]


It was?  No doubt, it SHOULD BE.

 

They SHOULD have done more to address the OL in last year’s draft, as many of us pointed out during and immediately after the draft. 
 

Most of us also think that they SHOULD have addressed it more aggressively in free agency this year.

 

Based upon the team’s track record, how can you say it’s a top priority for the team now?

 

One new variable in the equation is having Pollack as OL coach.  Someone posted PFF(?) scores for a few of our linemen while under Pollack vs. while under Turner, and the difference was astounding.

 

While I hope that Pollack can work his magic with what we have, I still want the OL addressed early in the draft, but not necessarily at 5.  My fear is that the team thinks that Pollack and Rief fixes the OL for 2021 and we don’t go OL until later in the draft.

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Athletic article on the matter:

 

https://theathletic.com/2506446/2021/04/09/what-bengals-penei-sewell-vs-jamarr-chase-debate-tells-us-about-how-teams-value-positions/

 

As the 2021 NFL Draft creeps closer, it’s starting to look like the top 10 will actually consist of two different drafts. After the Niners traded up and nabbed the third overall pick, quarterbacks are all but guaranteed to go 1-2-3 for the first time since 1999. And depending on what the Falcons do at No. 4, QBs could potentially come off the board with the top four picks for the first time in NFL history. That unprecedented event means that a different draft — one reserved for teams that don’t need a QB — will be unfolding for the rest of the top 10.

A scenario that involves a QB going fourth overall (to the Falcons or an unknown team that swings a trade) would essentially mean that the draft starts with the Bengals at No. 5, which would bring added scrutiny to an already crucial decision for the future of the franchise. The hourglass in Cincinnati turned over the moment that the Bengals made Joe Burrow the No. 1 pick last spring, and the urgency only revved up after the Heisman-winning QB tore his ACL 10 games into his rookie season. The Bengals’ front office has to start building around their franchise quarterback, and the opportunity to potentially draft the best non-QB in the draft could go a long way in jumpstarting that process.

Over the past few weeks, a debate has been raging about which player Cincinnati should draft at No. 5, and it’s primarily come down to two players: LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase and Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell (Florida tight end Kyle Pitts may actually be the best choice of the three, but that’s a conversation for another time). If you travel to certain corners of Bengals Twitter or Reddit, I promise there are cases being made for both players right now. Few draft topics warrant meme treatment, but the Chase-Sewell battle has certainly cleared that bar.

These arguments are a fascinating look at the psyche of a fan base that knows how important this pick is to the success of the Joe Burrow era, and the fight will likely continue until the moment the pick is made. But more interesting than the debate over the players themselves might be what those players represent. The Chase-Sewell conundrum is the perfect chance to explore more larger questions about team building and where to find at certain positions. Whichever side you take in the debate doesn’t just indicate a preference for Chase or Sewell. It hints at a larger belief about which positions are worthy of a top-5 pick.

When I started thinking about this discussion, the first question that came to mind is where quality offensive tackles and wide receivers typically come from. Even that signifier — quality — is difficult to define for a position like offensive tackle. For our purposes here, I decided to use PFF grades at the position from 2020. For the most part, those grades align with conventional wisdom about the best tackles in the NFL. Of the top 32 qualifying starters from last season (so, the top half of the league), 16 of them were drafted in the first round. If we expand it to the second round, the number grows to 23 players.

Most of the first-round picks on that list were drafted by their current teams, and almost all of the ones who weren’t came to their new clubs via trade. When Duane Brown was traded from the Texans to the Seahawks in 2017, Seattle sent over the draft-capital equivalent of the 19th overall pick for a player who signed a contract worth $11.5 million per season the following year. Last spring, the 49ers sent the equivalent of the 51st overall pick to Washington for Trent Williams, who played one season in San Francisco before signing the richest contract ever for an offensive lineman — at age 32. It took two first-round picks (and a second) for the Texans to pry Laremy Tunsil away from the Dolphins in 2019, in a deal that’s still helping Miami accumulate draft picks. The lesson here is that even if your team didn’t draft a guy in the first round, it’s pretty damn expensive to pry a quality tackle away from the team that did.

Finding a reliable metric for “quality” at receiver isn’t easy either, given how different roles are for certain players, but if we go off receiving yardage totals from 2020, 12 of the top 32 receivers in the league were drafted in the first round. But even that number is a bit skewed. Nelson Agholor (27th on the list) was drafted in the first round by the Eagles in 2015, but the Raiders scooped him up for just $1 million last offseason. Both Corey Davis (18th) and Will Fuller (28th) were available in free agency and changed teams this spring, which is a significant contrast to the above-average tackles who’ve switched teams in recent years. Twelve of the top 32 wideouts on that list were also drafted in the third round or later. Compare that to eight of the top 32 tackles.

A majority of the best tackles in the league each year were typically drafted in the first round, and the league has also been relatively better at identifying starting-caliber talent at the position. As The Athletic’s Stephen Holder wrote earlier this week, 61 percent of the tackles drafted in the first round between 2000 and 2020 became five-year starters for their drafting team — the highest rate among any position. That number for receivers is only 40 percent.

Over time, the league has consistently shown that it struggles to rank the best receivers in a given draft. The best recent example is the 2017 draft, when Corey Davis (5th), Mike Williams (7th), and John Ross (9th) were all drafted in the top 10. Davis and Williams have turned into fine, useful players for their respective offenses, but both of them came off the board at least 77 picks before Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay were taken in the same draft. This isn’t a one-time event, either. Last year, Vikings star Justin Jefferson was the fifth wideout taken (22nd overall) in a historically deep first round, and he proceeded to set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie (1400). Even undeniable draft hits like Mike Evans can factor into this argument. The three-time Pro Bowler was taken with the seventh overall pick in 2014 — 46 spots before Green Bay drafted Davante Adams, who’s developed into arguably the best receiver in the NFL. A year later, Stefon Diggs went 142 picks after Amari Cooper. These aren’t isolated incidents. They happen almost every year.

The history of drafting wide receivers in the top 5 (or even the top 10) isn’t particularly kind to the teams that do it. Since 2010, f the 10 receivers drafted in the top 10 who’ve played out their rookie contracts, only four got a second deal with their drafting team. The highly drafted receivers that have been undeniable success stories are the rare, rare talents — the one with a physical profile and skill set that come along once every five to 10 years. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green. I canvassed a handful of NFL play-callers before diving into this topic, and each of them shared that sentiment. One noted that if you’re going to draft a wideout in the top 5, he better be a walk-in Hall of Famer. It’s certainly possible that Chase is one of those prospects. His pro day testing numbers put him in a truly elite group of players, but he’s still a 6-foot, 200-pound receiver. All indications are that Chase should wind up being a star in the NFL, but recent history has shown that teams don’t need to spend a top-5 pick to find elite receiving talent.

Some people have mentioned that the quality of this year’s offensive line class actually flips the argument. Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin told the team’s website as much earlier this week. “There are [linemen] that will be available in the second, third rounds that have starter grades on them,” Tobin said. “Maybe they’ll last longer than that, too. It’s a position group we’ve been focused on and we think having healthy guys there and the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and there’ll be additions.”

Tobin isn’t alone in that thinking. Others who’ve scouted this group of linemen have told me that it’s much deeper than recent classes have been, while other coaches don’t necessarily buy into that theory. And those scattered opinions are telling. Even if we operate as though this draft should have more starting-quality offensive linemen available in the second or third round than a typical year, history has proven that teams should show more caution in their ability to peg the right players based on pre-draft analysis. Assuming that a front office will be able to nail the starters in a given class to fill specific roles is often foolhardy, especially for a team like Cincinnati that’s two years removed from picking first overall and has fewer homegrown building blocks on its roster than virtually any team in the NFL. Tobin and his staff aren’t going to turn this into a contending roster in a single draft. The Bengals aren’t filling the final few holes on a Super Bowl roster (although that line of thinking can be risky even for teams that are “close”).  It might be beneficial for them to view this draft as one step in a multi-year process that should consist of making bets on rare players who could become foundational pieces for their future, rather than need-based drafting designed to fill holes on the 2021 roster. And the last decade of results indicate that it’s much harder to find one of those pieces at tackle than receiver.

Look at what’s happened in free agency over the past several years. This year, 32-year-old Riley Reiff was the only tackle to change teams for starting-level money, and even that was only a one-year deal worth $7.5 million. Meanwhile, receivers like Davis, Fuller, Agholor, and several others were available for starting-level money. As draft classes for receivers get deeper and deeper, it’s reasonable to assume that even more wideouts will be available as plug-and-play starters in free agency, while the pool of free-agent tackles remains consistently small. As Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald wrote in the site’s excellent free agency guide, “It’s highly improbable that a team can plan for finding a big-name left tackle in free agency, and if they do find them, expect them to cost near top-market pricing regardless of how good the player may actually be.” The results have been better at right tackle in recent years, but overall, the returns still don’t compare to the way teams consistently find starting-caliber receivers on the market.

The crucial question at the heart of this debate is how difficult it would be to replicate the production of whichever player the Bengals choose not to take at No. 5. It’s often been easier to find one-for-one replacements at receiver than at offensive tackle, but it’s also much easier to piece together receiver production from multiple players. Unlike tackles, receivers can be deployed situationally. They can have their roles completely tailored to their skill sets, with players getting moved around the formation and unleashed as part of certain personnel packages to put them in advantageous positions. If one situation requires a speed receiver in the lineup with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati, the Bengals should be able to find one of the many sub-4.4 players available late in drafts or on cut-down day each fall. If Cincinnati needs a big-bodied No. 3 in another scenario, 6-foot-5 Auden Tate is still on the Bengals’ roster. Multiple players can be used to cobble together the third WR spot on the depth chart. That just isn’t the case at offensive tackle. Players are on the field for every snap, run or pass. And while chip help can be used to aid a struggling tackle in pass protection, there’s only so much an offense can do to hide a starter at that position.

The specifics of the Bengals’ roster aren’t all that crucial to this exercise, especially when you consider where this team should be in its timeline. But there have been several good arguments for why their current personnel should sway Cincinnati one way or the other. Chase and Burrow obviously have a connection from their record-breaking season together at LSU, and making their starting QB happy and comfortable should be a priority for the Bengals. While teams only used 11 personnel on 60 percent of snaps league-wide last year, Cincinnati used three-receiver sets on 76 percent of their plays — one of the highest rates in the entire league. The hole at the second outside receiver spot is more glaring for Cincinnati than it would be for another team with a more varied approach to personnel.

But there are other ways to look at this, too. Burrow finished fourth in the NFL in pass attempts out of empty sets last season — while playing in only 10 games. In 2020, 25.7 percent of his attempts came out of empty, according to Sport Radar. Only Jared Goff (27.7 percent) used those sets at a higher rate. Quality tackles are a necessary part of consistently using five-man protection, and if the Bengals plan to live in those sets throughout Burrow’s career, having elite tackle play might be more important to them than other teams. Cincinnati has Reiff and Jonah Williams pegged as their bookend starters for now, but Reiff is on a one-year deal. Having Reiff on the roster shouldn’t preclude the Bengals from taking making a bet on one a hard-to-find position like offensive tackle. Reiff’s presence shouldn’t mean that guard is a bigger draft priority for the Bengals than tackle — not at this point along the franchise’s trajectory. Signing Reiff means that the Bengals don’t need a starting tackle in 2021. It shouldn’t stop them from trying to find one for the future. These are multi-year considerations, and playing Sewell at guard for a year before kicking him out to tackle could make the Bengals’ line stronger both in the short- and long-term. There’s also the question of whether Cincinnati’s no. 1 priority should be protecting their franchise quarterback. Using Burrow’s injury as a way to lobby for an offensive lineman is shortsighted, but let’s just say an opposing AFC coach I spoke with this week said he’s hoping the Bengals pass on a tackle in the top 10.

These are just a few of the questions and considerations that the Bengals will have to weigh as they decide which direction to go with the fifth overall pick. And in some ways, who they choose will be about more than the particular qualities of Chase and Sewell as prospects. It will signal how the Bengals want to build around Burrow and where they land on this debate about how to weigh certain positions on draft day.

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On 4/8/2021 at 4:05 PM, claptonrocks said:

If they draft Sewell and dont sign a FA 

Receiver then what type do they want..

Hell most speedy receivers are slot guys.

Since we have an outstandind slot in Boyd where do they turn?Do they turn one of the slot receivers in the draft to a wideout??

Theres alot to choose from if you want speed on the outside..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Come on, Clapton. We've already covered this stuff.

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9 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Athletic article on the matter:

 

https://theathletic.com/2506446/2021/04/09/what-bengals-penei-sewell-vs-jamarr-chase-debate-tells-us-about-how-teams-value-positions/

 

As the 2021 NFL Draft creeps closer, it’s starting to look like the top 10 will actually consist of two different drafts. After the Niners traded up and nabbed the third overall pick, quarterbacks are all but guaranteed to go 1-2-3 for the first time since 1999. And depending on what the Falcons do at No. 4, QBs could potentially come off the board with the top four picks for the first time in NFL history. That unprecedented event means that a different draft — one reserved for teams that don’t need a QB — will be unfolding for the rest of the top 10.

A scenario that involves a QB going fourth overall (to the Falcons or an unknown team that swings a trade) would essentially mean that the draft starts with the Bengals at No. 5, which would bring added scrutiny to an already crucial decision for the future of the franchise. The hourglass in Cincinnati turned over the moment that the Bengals made Joe Burrow the No. 1 pick last spring, and the urgency only revved up after the Heisman-winning QB tore his ACL 10 games into his rookie season. The Bengals’ front office has to start building around their franchise quarterback, and the opportunity to potentially draft the best non-QB in the draft could go a long way in jumpstarting that process.

Over the past few weeks, a debate has been raging about which player Cincinnati should draft at No. 5, and it’s primarily come down to two players: LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase and Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell (Florida tight end Kyle Pitts may actually be the best choice of the three, but that’s a conversation for another time). If you travel to certain corners of Bengals Twitter or Reddit, I promise there are cases being made for both players right now. Few draft topics warrant meme treatment, but the Chase-Sewell battle has certainly cleared that bar.

These arguments are a fascinating look at the psyche of a fan base that knows how important this pick is to the success of the Joe Burrow era, and the fight will likely continue until the moment the pick is made. But more interesting than the debate over the players themselves might be what those players represent. The Chase-Sewell conundrum is the perfect chance to explore more larger questions about team building and where to find at certain positions. Whichever side you take in the debate doesn’t just indicate a preference for Chase or Sewell. It hints at a larger belief about which positions are worthy of a top-5 pick.

When I started thinking about this discussion, the first question that came to mind is where quality offensive tackles and wide receivers typically come from. Even that signifier — quality — is difficult to define for a position like offensive tackle. For our purposes here, I decided to use PFF grades at the position from 2020. For the most part, those grades align with conventional wisdom about the best tackles in the NFL. Of the top 32 qualifying starters from last season (so, the top half of the league), 16 of them were drafted in the first round. If we expand it to the second round, the number grows to 23 players.

Most of the first-round picks on that list were drafted by their current teams, and almost all of the ones who weren’t came to their new clubs via trade. When Duane Brown was traded from the Texans to the Seahawks in 2017, Seattle sent over the draft-capital equivalent of the 19th overall pick for a player who signed a contract worth $11.5 million per season the following year. Last spring, the 49ers sent the equivalent of the 51st overall pick to Washington for Trent Williams, who played one season in San Francisco before signing the richest contract ever for an offensive lineman — at age 32. It took two first-round picks (and a second) for the Texans to pry Laremy Tunsil away from the Dolphins in 2019, in a deal that’s still helping Miami accumulate draft picks. The lesson here is that even if your team didn’t draft a guy in the first round, it’s pretty damn expensive to pry a quality tackle away from the team that did.

Finding a reliable metric for “quality” at receiver isn’t easy either, given how different roles are for certain players, but if we go off receiving yardage totals from 2020, 12 of the top 32 receivers in the league were drafted in the first round. But even that number is a bit skewed. Nelson Agholor (27th on the list) was drafted in the first round by the Eagles in 2015, but the Raiders scooped him up for just $1 million last offseason. Both Corey Davis (18th) and Will Fuller (28th) were available in free agency and changed teams this spring, which is a significant contrast to the above-average tackles who’ve switched teams in recent years. Twelve of the top 32 wideouts on that list were also drafted in the third round or later. Compare that to eight of the top 32 tackles.

A majority of the best tackles in the league each year were typically drafted in the first round, and the league has also been relatively better at identifying starting-caliber talent at the position. As The Athletic’s Stephen Holder wrote earlier this week, 61 percent of the tackles drafted in the first round between 2000 and 2020 became five-year starters for their drafting team — the highest rate among any position. That number for receivers is only 40 percent.

Over time, the league has consistently shown that it struggles to rank the best receivers in a given draft. The best recent example is the 2017 draft, when Corey Davis (5th), Mike Williams (7th), and John Ross (9th) were all drafted in the top 10. Davis and Williams have turned into fine, useful players for their respective offenses, but both of them came off the board at least 77 picks before Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay were taken in the same draft. This isn’t a one-time event, either. Last year, Vikings star Justin Jefferson was the fifth wideout taken (22nd overall) in a historically deep first round, and he proceeded to set the NFL record for receiving yards by a rookie (1400). Even undeniable draft hits like Mike Evans can factor into this argument. The three-time Pro Bowler was taken with the seventh overall pick in 2014 — 46 spots before Green Bay drafted Davante Adams, who’s developed into arguably the best receiver in the NFL. A year later, Stefon Diggs went 142 picks after Amari Cooper. These aren’t isolated incidents. They happen almost every year.

The history of drafting wide receivers in the top 5 (or even the top 10) isn’t particularly kind to the teams that do it. Since 2010, f the 10 receivers drafted in the top 10 who’ve played out their rookie contracts, only four got a second deal with their drafting team. The highly drafted receivers that have been undeniable success stories are the rare, rare talents — the one with a physical profile and skill set that come along once every five to 10 years. Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green. I canvassed a handful of NFL play-callers before diving into this topic, and each of them shared that sentiment. One noted that if you’re going to draft a wideout in the top 5, he better be a walk-in Hall of Famer. It’s certainly possible that Chase is one of those prospects. His pro day testing numbers put him in a truly elite group of players, but he’s still a 6-foot, 200-pound receiver. All indications are that Chase should wind up being a star in the NFL, but recent history has shown that teams don’t need to spend a top-5 pick to find elite receiving talent.

Some people have mentioned that the quality of this year’s offensive line class actually flips the argument. Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin told the team’s website as much earlier this week. “There are [linemen] that will be available in the second, third rounds that have starter grades on them,” Tobin said. “Maybe they’ll last longer than that, too. It’s a position group we’ve been focused on and we think having healthy guys there and the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and there’ll be additions.”

Tobin isn’t alone in that thinking. Others who’ve scouted this group of linemen have told me that it’s much deeper than recent classes have been, while other coaches don’t necessarily buy into that theory. And those scattered opinions are telling. Even if we operate as though this draft should have more starting-quality offensive linemen available in the second or third round than a typical year, history has proven that teams should show more caution in their ability to peg the right players based on pre-draft analysis. Assuming that a front office will be able to nail the starters in a given class to fill specific roles is often foolhardy, especially for a team like Cincinnati that’s two years removed from picking first overall and has fewer homegrown building blocks on its roster than virtually any team in the NFL. Tobin and his staff aren’t going to turn this into a contending roster in a single draft. The Bengals aren’t filling the final few holes on a Super Bowl roster (although that line of thinking can be risky even for teams that are “close”).  It might be beneficial for them to view this draft as one step in a multi-year process that should consist of making bets on rare players who could become foundational pieces for their future, rather than need-based drafting designed to fill holes on the 2021 roster. And the last decade of results indicate that it’s much harder to find one of those pieces at tackle than receiver.

Look at what’s happened in free agency over the past several years. This year, 32-year-old Riley Reiff was the only tackle to change teams for starting-level money, and even that was only a one-year deal worth $7.5 million. Meanwhile, receivers like Davis, Fuller, Agholor, and several others were available for starting-level money. As draft classes for receivers get deeper and deeper, it’s reasonable to assume that even more wideouts will be available as plug-and-play starters in free agency, while the pool of free-agent tackles remains consistently small. As Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald wrote in the site’s excellent free agency guide, “It’s highly improbable that a team can plan for finding a big-name left tackle in free agency, and if they do find them, expect them to cost near top-market pricing regardless of how good the player may actually be.” The results have been better at right tackle in recent years, but overall, the returns still don’t compare to the way teams consistently find starting-caliber receivers on the market.

The crucial question at the heart of this debate is how difficult it would be to replicate the production of whichever player the Bengals choose not to take at No. 5. It’s often been easier to find one-for-one replacements at receiver than at offensive tackle, but it’s also much easier to piece together receiver production from multiple players. Unlike tackles, receivers can be deployed situationally. They can have their roles completely tailored to their skill sets, with players getting moved around the formation and unleashed as part of certain personnel packages to put them in advantageous positions. If one situation requires a speed receiver in the lineup with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati, the Bengals should be able to find one of the many sub-4.4 players available late in drafts or on cut-down day each fall. If Cincinnati needs a big-bodied No. 3 in another scenario, 6-foot-5 Auden Tate is still on the Bengals’ roster. Multiple players can be used to cobble together the third WR spot on the depth chart. That just isn’t the case at offensive tackle. Players are on the field for every snap, run or pass. And while chip help can be used to aid a struggling tackle in pass protection, there’s only so much an offense can do to hide a starter at that position.

The specifics of the Bengals’ roster aren’t all that crucial to this exercise, especially when you consider where this team should be in its timeline. But there have been several good arguments for why their current personnel should sway Cincinnati one way or the other. Chase and Burrow obviously have a connection from their record-breaking season together at LSU, and making their starting QB happy and comfortable should be a priority for the Bengals. While teams only used 11 personnel on 60 percent of snaps league-wide last year, Cincinnati used three-receiver sets on 76 percent of their plays — one of the highest rates in the entire league. The hole at the second outside receiver spot is more glaring for Cincinnati than it would be for another team with a more varied approach to personnel.

But there are other ways to look at this, too. Burrow finished fourth in the NFL in pass attempts out of empty sets last season — while playing in only 10 games. In 2020, 25.7 percent of his attempts came out of empty, according to Sport Radar. Only Jared Goff (27.7 percent) used those sets at a higher rate. Quality tackles are a necessary part of consistently using five-man protection, and if the Bengals plan to live in those sets throughout Burrow’s career, having elite tackle play might be more important to them than other teams. Cincinnati has Reiff and Jonah Williams pegged as their bookend starters for now, but Reiff is on a one-year deal. Having Reiff on the roster shouldn’t preclude the Bengals from taking making a bet on one a hard-to-find position like offensive tackle. Reiff’s presence shouldn’t mean that guard is a bigger draft priority for the Bengals than tackle — not at this point along the franchise’s trajectory. Signing Reiff means that the Bengals don’t need a starting tackle in 2021. It shouldn’t stop them from trying to find one for the future. These are multi-year considerations, and playing Sewell at guard for a year before kicking him out to tackle could make the Bengals’ line stronger both in the short- and long-term. There’s also the question of whether Cincinnati’s no. 1 priority should be protecting their franchise quarterback. Using Burrow’s injury as a way to lobby for an offensive lineman is shortsighted, but let’s just say an opposing AFC coach I spoke with this week said he’s hoping the Bengals pass on a tackle in the top 10.

These are just a few of the questions and considerations that the Bengals will have to weigh as they decide which direction to go with the fifth overall pick. And in some ways, who they choose will be about more than the particular qualities of Chase and Sewell as prospects. It will signal how the Bengals want to build around Burrow and where they land on this debate about how to weigh certain positions on draft day.

 

 

Spectacular, and with tons of depth to answer the "why so" question.

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6 hours ago, spicoli said:

10 would be a great place to fall back and grab Slater at. 

 

Reiff leaves next year. What's you plan then? Don't you allow for future considerations into your thinking? We need to answer the LT question and Slater isn't going to do that. I do like him, but he's not going to be a long term answer at tackle. He's a guard, and you have admitted as much.

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22 minutes ago, bengaled said:

 

Reiff leaves next year. What's you plan then? Don't you allow for future considerations into your thinking? We need to answer the LT question and Slater isn't going to do that. I do like him, but he's not going to be a long term answer at tackle. He's a guard, and you have admitted as much.

Come on Bengaled ...we've allready covered this stuff...😎

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