2021 AFC North Playoff Picture (and Real-Time Week 18 Playoff Speculation)

[AmishBengalFan]

Okay everyone, strap in.  I've just finished building the permutation spreadsheet and can share now what the scenario count is right now for all 4 teams in the AFC North to win the division.  With the Cleveland Football Team having lost to the Packers to kickoff Week 16, there are now seven games left involving AFC North teams, and 128 possible outcomes (ignoring the possibility of any tied games).

 

Standings:

8-6 CIN

8-6 BAL

7-6-1 PIT

7-8 CFT

 

Remaining Schedule:

Week 16: 1pm BAL at CIN,  4pm PIT at KCC

Week 17: 1pm KCC at CIN, 4pm LAR at BAL , Monday: CFT at PIT

Week 18: 1pm PIT at BAL, 1pm CIN at CFT  (times may flex but both games are VERY LIKELY to be in the same timeslot even if changed)

 

Tiebreakers (as they stand at the moment)

#1 - Head-to-Head Records (CIN 1-0 BAL, CIN 2-0 PIT, CIN 0-1 CFT, BAL 0-1 PIT, BAL 1-1 CFT, PIT 1-0 CFT)

#2 - Division Records (CIN 3-1, PIT 2-2, CFT 2-2, BAL 1-3)

#3 - Records vs Common Opponents (CIN 7-4, BAL 7-5, CFT 6-6, PIT 4-6-1)

#4 - Conference Record (CIN 6-3, PIT 5-4, BAL 5-5, CFT 4-6)

 

I can find NO scenarios where the tiebreaks will require going any deeper than Division Record, but I am including Common Opponents and Conference in case I'm wrong.

 

Of the 128 scenarios for the final 7 games, excluding the possibility of any of them ending in ties:

Cincinnati has 56 championship scenarios:

- 39 of them have Cincinnati winning the division outright (36 of those with CIN beating BAL this weekend)

- 10 of them have Cincinnati tying Baltimore, but winning the division on 2-0 head-to-head sweep

- 8 of them have Cincinnati tying Baltimore, splitting head-to-head 1-1, but winning the division on division record (4-2 vs no better than 3-3)

- We cannot tie with PIT because they have a tied game in their record.

- If we tie with CLE, it's only possible if they run the table, beating us, while we win only 1 of our other two games. Their 2-0 sweep of us eliminates us.

 

Baltimore has 41 championship scenarios:

- All of them have Baltimore winning the division outright - they lose EVERY POSSIBLE TIEBREAKER to EVERY TEAM THEY CAN TIE WITH

 

Pittsburgh has 25 championship scenarios:

- All of them have Pittsburgh winning the division outright - they cannot be involved in a tiebreak due to having a tied game... this analysis presumes no more tied games

 

Cleveland has 6 championship scenarios:

- All of them require Cleveland run the table to finish 9-8 and end up tied with the winner of the CIN/BAL game (who must then lose all of their remaining games), and possibly also with the loser of the CIN/BAL game (if they win exactly one of their final two games)

- 2 of them have Cleveland tying Cincinnati, but winning the division on 2-0 head-to-head sweep

- 2 of them have Cleveland tying Baltimore, splitting head-to-head 1-1, but wining the division on division record (4-2 vs no better than 3-3)

- 2 of them have Cleveland in a 3-way tie at 9-8 with CIN/BAL.  CFT wins the tiebreak with a 3-1 h2h record v CIN/BAL, neither of whom can finish better than 2-2.

 

At the moment, assuming a 50/50 outcome of the remaining AFC North Games

CIN 56/128 = 44%

BAL 41/128 = 32%

PIT 25/128 = 20%

CFT 6/128 = 4%

 

The two games remaining this weekend will change the numbers as follows:

 

Since our game is at 1pm and we'll know the result before the PIT/KCC 4pm game is done:

 

If CIN>BAL:

CIN 45/64 = 71%  (+27%)

PIT 11/64 = 17% (-3%)

BAL 4/64 = 6% (-26%)

CFT 4/64 = 6% (+2%)

 

Then for the later game:

 

If CIN>BAL + KCC>PIT

CIN 25/32 = 78% (+7%)

CFT 3/32 = 10% (+4%)

BAL 2/32 = 6% 

PIT 2/32 = 6% (-11%)

 

If CIN>BAL + PIT>KCC

CIN 20/32 = 63% (-8%)

PIT 9/32 = 28% (+11%)

BAL 2/32 = 6%

CFT 1/32 = 3% (-3%)

 

If BAL>CIN in the early game:

BAL 37/64 = 58% (+26%)

PIT 14/64 = 22% (+2%)

CIN 11/64 = 17% (-27%)

CFT 2/64 = 3% (-1%)

 

Then for the later game:

 

If BAL>CIN + KCC>PIT

BAL 20/32 = 62% (+4%)

CIN 7/32 = 22% (+5%)

PIT 3/32 = 10% (-12%)

CFT 2/32 = 6% (+3%)

 

If BAL>CIN + PIT>KCC

BAL 17/32 = 53% (-5%)

PIT 11/32 = 35% (+13%)

CIN 4/32 = 12% (-5%)

CFT eliminated = 0% (-3%)

 

I will update this thread as games go final.

[AmishBengalFan]

BTW - Even if we lose BOTH of our next two games, there's a scenario where the CFT-CIN game in Week 18 will be for the division title:

 

Week 16: BAL>CIN + KCC>PIT
Week 17: KCC>CIN, LAR>BAL, CFT>PIT

Week 18: PIT>BAL

 

This sets up the standings as:

9-8 BAL (1-1 v CIN and CFT, 2-4 in division)

8-8 CIN (1-1 v BAL, 3-2 in divsion)

8-8 CFT (1-1 v BAL, 3-2 in division)

8-8-1 PIT

 

The CIN-CFT winner goes 9-8 and ties BAL, winning the division with a 4-2 division record after a 1-1 head-to-head split

[AmishBengalFan]

[|High School Harry|]

[DanvilleBengal]

7 hours ago, High School Harry said:

I'm young; I dont get what this image is supposed to be representing...

[AmishBengalFan]

47 minutes ago, DanvilleBengal said:

I'm young; I dont get what this image is supposed to be representing...

 

Boobs

[Jungletiger]

change that to 9-6 us and 8-7 Balt, ya know whad I mean, Vern.

[Jamie_B]

With NE losing depending how the rest of the day goes we could be the 3 seed after today

[AmishBengalFan]

Just deleted 64 lines from the spreadsheet, as the Stripes whupped-up on the Ravens 41-21.

CIN (9-6, 4-1) 45/64 = 71% (clinch with one win + one PIT loss, plus other combos)

PIT (7-6-1, 2-2) 11/64 = 17% (eliminated with any combination of losses + CIN wins equaling two or greater)
BAL (8-7, 1-4) 4/64 = 4% (eliminated with one loss or one CIN win)
CFT (7-8, 2-2) 4/64 = 4% (eliminated with one loss or one CIN win)

If KCC > PIT, we can clinch the division with a win vs KCC next week

[CincyInDC]

2 hours ago, DanvilleBengal said:

I'm young; I dont get what this image is supposed to be representing...

 

Before the internet we had to make our own pretend boobs to look at with the Land o' Lakes butter box.  You'd cut the knees out with an exacto blade and put them where the Mammaries go.  It was a simpler time. 

 

[Jamie_B]

1 minute ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Just deleted 64 lines from the spreadsheet, as the Stripes whupped-up on the Ravens 41-21.

CIN (9-6) 45/64 = 71% (clinch with one win + one PIT loss, plus other combos)

PIT (7-7-1) 11/64 = 17% (eliminated with and combination of losses or CIN wins equaling two or greater)
BAL (8-7) 4/64 = 4% (eliminated with one loss or one CIN win)
CFT (7-8) 4/64 = 4% (eliminated with one loss or one CIN win)

If KCC > PIT, we can clinch the division with a win vs KCC next week

 

 

I believe if we don't win next week we can still clinch with a Balt and Cleveland loss correct?

[DanvilleBengal]

1 hour ago, AmishBengalFan said:

 

Boobs

Thanks,  now that you pointed it out, I feel like an idiot...a nice creamy pair right in my face🤦‍♀️

[CincyInDC]

4 minutes ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Just deleted 64 lines from the spreadsheet, as the Stripes whupped-up on the Ravens 41-21.

CIN (9-6) 45/64 = 71% (clinch with one win + one PIT loss, plus other combos)

PIT (7-7-1) 11/64 = 17% (eliminated with and combination of losses or CIN wins equaling two or greater)
BAL (8-7) 4/64 = 4% (eliminated with one loss or one CIN win)
CFT (7-8) 4/64 = 4% (eliminated with one loss or one CIN win)

If KCC > PIT, we can clinch the division with a win vs KCC next week

 

Do we care about the raiders/broncos game as far as playoff scenarios go? 

 

[Shebengal]

8 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

With NE losing depending how the rest of the day goes we could be the 3 seed after today

We already are.

 

[AmishBengalFan]

Confirmed - We have moved into the #3 seed.
https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture

[Cricket]

4 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

I believe if we don't win next week we can still clinch with a Balt and Cleveland loss correct?

Nope.  stealers were only half a game behind us before today’s games.  We have to win at least as many games as the stealers do (not including any ties in upcoming games for either team).

[Jamie_B]

Just now, Cricket said:

Nope.  stealers were only half a game behind us before today’s games.  We have to win at least as many games as the stealers do (not including any ties in upcoming games for either team).

 

Sorry I'm already counting KC beating them today.

 

[TigerJ@w]

2 minutes ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Confirmed - We have moved into the #3 seed.
https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture

And right now, are to face NE at home.   https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/scoreboard/ 

[Griever]

 

[DanvilleBengal]

Just had a thought...since the Shitsbergers are playing KC today, KC has the first-round bye. Cincy currently is one game back of KC for home field potentially.  I'm throwing up a little, but if the Squeels actually put it off and actually beat KC, next week could mean Cincy is playing for the only bye in the post season against KC. beating them would have the tiebreaker over the Chiefs....

[AmishBengalFan]

53 minutes ago, CincyInDC said:

 

Do we care about the raiders/broncos game as far as playoff scenarios go? 

 

 

Nope.  Neither of them are in the AFC North, and none of the tiebreakers here will come down to Common Opponents.

They might matter for THEM, getting into the playoffs to possibly play US, but since we beat both of them, them playing each other won't affect our record against Common Opponents, AFC Opponents, nor our SOS or SOV tiebreakers against anybody we may tie for for a seed.

[AmishBengalFan]

13 minutes ago, Cricket said:

Nope.  stealers were only half a game behind us before today’s games.  We have to win at least as many games as the stealers do (not including any ties in upcoming games for either team).

 

Cricket is right.  This was addressed somewhere else.... PIT can finish with 10.5 wins if they run the table.  We need to get to 11 to kill them off if they don't help us by losing along the way.

[AmishBengalFan]

Our magic number is TWO - any combination of Bengal wins and Steeler losses equaling two or more gives us the division.  Furthermore, any Bengal win OR any loss by the Ravens or CFT will eliminate them, respectively.

 

Remaining Schedule:

Week 16: PIT at KCC

Week 17: 1pm KCC at CIN, 4pm LAR at BAL , Monday: CFT at PIT

Week 18: 1pm PIT at BAL, 1pm CIN at CFT  (times may flex)

 

Fastest way to the division:  PIT loses to KCC, we beat KCC.

[Jungletiger]

[Shebengal]

2 minutes ago, Jungletiger said:

Yep. Let’s take care of our business and let the rest sort itself  out.