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2021 AFC North Playoff Picture (and Real-Time Week 18 Playoff Speculation)


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1 minute ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Chefs putting on a clinic at Arrowhead.  Early in 3Q its a tennis score... Thirty-Love.

I wish I could be at that game next week. I had written the chefs game off as a loss months ago, but not any longer. This is a game the Bengals can win and it's at home. Time to make a statement! WHO DEY!!!

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2 hours ago, AmishBengalFan said:

Our magic number is TWO - any combination of Bengal wins and Steeler losses equaling two or more gives us the division.  Furthermore, any Bengal win OR any loss by the Ravens or CFT will eliminate them, respectively.

 

Remaining Schedule:

Week 16: PIT at KCC

Week 17: 1pm KCC at CIN, 4pm LAR at BAL , Monday: CFT at PIT

Week 18: 1pm PIT at BAL, 1pm CIN at CFT  (times may flex)

 

Fastest way to the division:  PIT loses to KCC, we beat KCC.

I give up.

I guess I missed it.

Why the CFT?

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Chiefs rape the Stealers, 36-10

 

32 more rows deleted.  There are five games left, 32 combinations.  

 

CIN (9-6, 4-1) 25/32 = 78%  (Clinch with one win OR with one loss by all three division foes)
BAL (8-7, 1-4) 2/32 = 6%  (Eliminated with one loss OR one CIN win)

PIT (7-7-1, 2-2) 2/32 = 6%  (Eliminated with one loss OR one CIN win)
CFT (7-8, 2-2) 3/32 = 10%  (Eliminated with one loss OR one CIN win)

 

Remaining Games:

Week 17: KCC at CIN, LAR at BAL, CFT at PIT
Week 18: PIT at BAL, CIN at CFT

 

Spreadsheet:

Untitled.jpg

 

Columns:

A = Division Champ

B-C = Week 16 Results

D-H = Week 17-18 Games

I-L = Wins for each team  (BLUE = Outright Champ, GREEN = Champ on Tiebreak, YELLOW = Tied but loses on Tiebreak

M = Maximum # of Wins

N = # of teams with Max # of Wins (if N=1, outright champ, if N>1, tiebreaker required)

O-R = # of Division Wins

S = Tiebreak Used

T-W = # of Common Opponent Wins (not used in tiebreakers, all tiebreaks settled before we get this far)

X-AA = # of Conference Wins (not used in tiebreakers, all tiebreaks settled before we get this far)

 

Note:  For ties involving CIN/BAL, BAL is eliminated on 0-2 sweep.  For ties (now) involving CIN/CFT, CIN is eliminated on 0-2 sweep because the only way this tie can happen is if CFT runs the table (beating us) while we lose out.

 

BAL win the North on Rows 17+21, where they run the table (BAL>LAR + BAL>PIT and we lose out KCC>CIN + CFT>CIN.  The CFT/PIT game has no impact on BAL)

PIT win the North on Rows 11+19, where they run the table (PIT>CFT + PIT>BAL and we lose out KCC>CIN + CFT>CIN.  The LAR/BAL game has no impact on PIT)

CFT win the North on Rows 7, 9+15, where they win the table (CFT>PIT + CFT>CIN, we lose to KCC, and BAL loses at lest once [to LAR or PIT])

CIN win the North in every other scenario

 

Note also:

The loser of CFT/PIT next week is eliminated

The loser of PIT/BAL the last week is eliminated

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1 hour ago, High School Harry said:

I give up.

I guess I missed it.

Why the CFT?

 

Cleveland Football Team.

 

The team named "Browns", founded by the Father of Football, is in Baltimore now.  The current "Browns" are the Al Lerner Browns, wearing throwback uniforms and a 1946 patch honoring the Paul Brown Browns, who they played twice this year, once in the city where the Paul Brown Browns were founded and once where the Paul Brown Browns currently play.  To avoid the confusion of a 22-season-old team claiming 75 years of history, I just refer to them as what they are... the football team playing in Cleveland.

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I believe we want Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland next week to take Cleveland off the board and then ravens to beat Stealers in last

game and if so we are in even if we don’t win another game assuming ravens lose to rams next week.

 

or, just beat KC and clinch the damn thing next week.

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2 minutes ago, membengal said:

I believe we want Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland next week to take Cleveland off the board and then ravens to beat Stealers in last

game and if so we are in even if we don’t win another game assuming ravens lose to rams next week.

 

or, just beat KC and clinch the damn thing next week.

 

 

All of that.

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58 minutes ago, membengal said:

I believe we want Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland next week to take Cleveland off the board and then ravens to beat Stealers in last

game and if so we are in even if we don’t win another game assuming ravens lose to rams next week.

 

or, just beat KC and clinch the damn thing next week.

Or...

Cleveland beats the Stealers ..

Give them another loss..

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5 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

That's the game I don't want. I'll be pulling for the Stealers this week.

I see your point, but I want the Squeelers to go away. Let’s make it simple. Win next week and we’re in. Period. Then we don’t have to worry or care.

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16 minutes ago, Shebengal said:

I see your point, but I want the Squeelers to go away. Let’s make it simple. Win next week and we’re in. Period. Then we don’t have to worry or care.

Which is why I have the sneaky suspicion nothing will go right next week for anyone. 
 

The NFL must have their dramatic final weekend. 

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11 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

That's the game I don't want. I'll be pulling for the Stealers this week.

I... I... I can't. I just don't think I can. If they were playing a team of nazis coached by Ayman al-Zawahiri, I might consider not rooting for the nazis.

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11 minutes ago, Cat said:

I... I... I can't. I just don't think I can. If they were playing a team of nazis coached by Ayman al-Zawahiri, I might consider not rooting for the nazis.

 

 

Believe me I get it, but I am not entirely comfortable with the Browns in week 18. 

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17 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

I believe if we don't win next week we can still clinch with a Balt and Cleveland loss correct?

 

Nope. A Cleveland loss means a Steeler win and that would mean that they're back to a half game behind us with one to play. I think the only way we clinch next week (with a loss to KC) is if Clev and Pitt tie

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12 hours ago, Shebengal said:

I see your point, but I want the Squeelers to go away. Let’s make it simple. Win next week and we’re in. Period. Then we don’t have to worry or care.

 

High ask. Arguably the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC right now and possibly the best in the NFL. We're not at that level yet. We just aren't

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