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2021 AFC North Playoff Picture (and Real-Time Week 18 Playoff Speculation)


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1 hour ago, AmishBengalFan said:

By the way, if anyone cares about my speculation regarding the dates/times for the Wild Card games, here it is:

 

 

So.... my guess for the weekend's games are:

 

Schedule:

SATURDAY 4:35 (CBS) - at Cincinnati

SATURDAY 8:15 (NBC) - at NFC-W (LA Rams or Arizona)

SUNDAY 1:05 (FOX) - at Tampa Bay

SUNDAY 4:40 (CBS) - at Buffalo

SNF 8:15 (NBC) - at Kansas City

MNF 8:15 (ESPN) - at Dallas

 

 


Updating, now that we know the NFC pairings.....

 

If the Chargers win tonight:
SATURDAY 4:35 (CBS) - New England at Cincinnati

SATURDAY 8:15 (NBC) - Arizona at LA Rams

SUNDAY 1:05 (FOX) - Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

SUNDAY 4:40 (CBS) - LA Chargers at Buffalo

SNF 8:15 (NBC) - Pittsburgh at Kansas City

MNF 8:15 (ESPN) - San Francisco at Dallas

 

If the Raiders win tonight:

SATURDAY 4:35 (CBS) - New England at Buffalo

SATURDAY 8:15 (NBC) - Arizona at LA Rams

SUNDAY 1:05 (FOX) - Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

SUNDAY 4:40 (CBS) - Las Vegas at Cincinnati

SNF 8:15 (NBC) - Pittsburgh at Kansas City

MNF 8:15 (ESPN) - San Francisco at Dallas

... Buffalo/Cincinnati swap days due to us playing a west coast team


If they tie:
SATURDAY 4:35 (CBS) - New England at Cincinnati

SATURDAY 8:15 (NBC) - Las Vegas at Kansas City

SUNDAY 1:05 (FOX) - Arizona at LA Rams

SUNDAY 4:40 (CBS) - LA Chargers at Buffalo

SNF 8:15 (NBC) - Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

MNF 8:15 (ESPN) - San Francisco at Dallas

... with PIT out of the playoffs, Brady becomes the NFL's darling and TBB-PHI moves to SNF.  FOX protects ARI/LAR (its the only NFC game left at this point), and NBC picks Mahomes over Burrow

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20 minutes ago, Sea Ray said:

So in the end, we had nothing, zilch, to gain by winning today

 

Well.... we would've been the #3 seed instead of #4, as we would've won the tiebreak over BUF had we finished 11-6 instead of 10-7.  We'd be playing the Chargers or Patriots, instead of the Raiders or Patriots.

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1 hour ago, BengalBuck said:

Raiders please....

Nah man, A Saturday afternoon game would be great. One less day for Bellicheat to game plan and we could get a hotel room for the night instead of having to come home Sunday night. 

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So.... here's an interesting thought.  With the super-expanded 14-team playoff system that the league introduced last season, it is entirely possible - though extremely unlikely - that one of the #2-4 seeds could host THREE playoff games.

 

Even us.  :)

 

As the #4 seed, we cannot host one of the other division champs, as they have better seeds than us.  But we CAN host a wildcard, and there are three of them.  Three wildcards, three rounds.  As long as wildcards keep beating division champs, our chances of hosting a 2nd (or 3rd) game go up.

 

Basically, for the OTHER games in the AFC playoffs, every time a home team wins we lose one home game.  During the Wild Card round, if the home teams win BOTH of the other games, then our opening round game will be our final one at PBS.  If one home and one visiting team win, then we're on the road for the Divisional round, but can host the Conference Finals if TEN is upset by whichever Wildcard team they play.  And if both visiting teams win during the Wild Card, we become the defacto #2 seed - we get to host the Divisional round, and have a chance to host a 3rd game if the Titans get upset in their game.

 

Of course, if we lose a game we're done.  But if we win, we could get a 2nd or even a 3rd home game, as long as visiting teams do well in the other games.  In a best-case scenario, where visiting teams win EVERY game, we would host #5 during the Wild Card round, #6 during the Divisional, and #7 during the Championship Round.

 

And.... to COMPLETELY overload this post, here's the "best case" scenario for each of the possible results for tonight's SNF game:

 

If Raiders win:

Wild Card: CIN hosts LVR, NEP wins at BUF, PIT wins at KCC
Divisional: CIN hosts NEP, PIT wins at TEN
Conference: CIN hosts PIT

 

If Chargers win:

Wild Card: CIN hosts NEP, LAC wins at BUF, PIT wins at KCC
Divisional: CIN hosts LAC, PIT wins at TEN
Conference: CIN hosts PIT

 

If they tie:
Wild Card: CIN hosts NEP, LAC wins at BUF, LVR wins at KCC
Divisional: CIN hosts LAC, LVR wins at TEN
Conference: CIN hosts LVR

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