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https://theathletic.com/3099517/2022/01/29/worst-to-first-putting-bengals-dramatic-turnaround-in-historic-context/?source=emp_shared_article

 

Worst to first: Putting Bengals’ dramatic turnaround in historic context

 

by stephen Holder

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A little more than two years ago, the Bengals hit what felt like rock bottom.

With losses mounting and the pressure building, rookie head coach Zac Taylor made a quarterback change in a desperate search for a spark. The switch from Andy Dalton to rookie Ryan Finley was one of the few options Taylor had left. The Bengals were 0-8 and were running out of cards to play.

How much worse could things even get?

Finley’s first start provided a jarring answer. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens embarrassed Cincinnati, going into Paul Brown Stadium and leaving with a 49-13 win. Just like that, an 0-8 record became 0-9.

The Bengals were at a loss. Asked to describe his emotions, receiver Tyler Boyd failed.

“I can’t even,” Boyd said, “because I’ve never experienced this before. I’ve never been on a winless team up to this point.”

Taylor could do little more than marvel at Baltimore’s high-octane offensive attack.

“That’s a really powerful offense right now that many teams have shown no solution to stopping,” Taylor said.

Cincinnati would lose twice more before notching its first win, but what we couldn’t know then is that people would soon be making similar statements about the Bengals’ offense.

Here we are, just two short years removed from that 2-14 season — tied for the worst in club history record-wise — and the Bengals find themselves in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. They are four quarters away from the Super Bowl and a galaxy away from those confounding moments in the locker room after that demoralizing 2019 loss to the Ravens.

The Bengals are a success story for the ages, so much so that they have prompted us to crack open the history books. In a quest to put the Bengals’ turnaround into proper context, we looked at some past reversals of fortune in the NFL to find apt comparisons.

That effort only reinforced just how historic this Bengals run really is.

We examined the five-year periods prior to appearances in a conference finals game to pinpoint teams that were truly mired in terrible circumstances and to assess how they emerged from them. The sample period accounts for countless one-year turnarounds in NFL history that can be attributed to a variety of issues — typically injuries.

But in the case of the Bengals, this trip to the championship game was preceded by a half-decade of ineptitude, during which Cincinnati averaged five wins per season. How does that compare historically? Just four teams in the Super Bowl era averaged fewer victories in the five years prior to reaching a conference championship.

What factors led to those turnarounds? Were those turnarounds sustained? Why or why not? And are there any takeaways that might be instructive for the Bengals moving forward?

Let’s explore some examples.

1972 Stealers


The Stealers spent the years before advancing to the 1972 AFC Championship Game retooling their roster and adding key pieces. They averaged just 3.6 wins in the five-year period before reaching that title game.

Joe Greene arrived in 1969. Terry Bradshaw and Mel Blount followed in 1970. Jack Ham in 1971. Then, in 1972, Franco Harris showed up and produced a 1,000-yard rushing effort as a rookie.

It can be argued the Stealers’ turnaround was more gradual than this year’s Bengals. Pittsburgh won 11 combined games (on a 14-game schedule) in the two seasons prior to 1972. The Bengals, comparatively, won just six games from 2019-2020.

One possible difference: Today’s game allows quarterbacks to have a much more dramatic impact given the emphasis on passing and rules that make throwing the football easier.

To that end, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s influence on this season cannot be overstated. In his first full season and second overall, Burrow has powered this historic turnaround in Cincinnati.

We’re all aware what happened with the Stealers after 1972. Theys went on to enjoy a dynastic period, winning four Super Bowls between 1974 and 1979. The lesson here for the Bengals is continuity. The Stealers’ starting lineups underwent minimal change during those years. Will the Bengals, in this era of free agency, be able to do the same?

1981 49ers
The 49ers averaged just 4.6 wins between 1976 and 1980. They followed that stretch with a Super Bowl-winning season in 1981 that kicked off one of the most dominant runs in NFL history.

The main parallel between the Niners’ turnaround that year and that of the current Bengals is quarterback play. It was Joe Montana’s third season, but his first starting wire to wire. Head coach Bill Walsh moved from Steve DeBerg to Montana midway through the 1980 season, and the young quarterback helped execute Walsh’s famed West Coast offense to perfection.

Where the 49ers really took things to another level was in continuing to add to their core. With players like Montana and Ronnie Lott already in the fold, they bolstered the roster with draft picks like offensive lineman Jesse Sapolu and running back Roger Craig (1983), guard Guy McIntyre and defensive lineman Michael Carter (1984), receiver Jerry Rice (1985) and defensive end Charles Haley (1986).

Obviously, that’s an incredibly high bar. But it reinforces what it takes to stay relevant as a franchise for a long period. A big chunk of the Bengals’ core was built through the draft, but they are going to have to sustain their draft results as the team enjoys more success and, presumably, players are lost to free agency.

That includes protecting Burrow. The Niners, for example, got a combined seven Pro Bowl appearances from Sapolu and McIntyre. Sure, they invested in their skill players, but they were sure to solidify their offensive line, too.

1988 Bills


With 23 combined victories in the five seasons preceding their 1988 appearance in the AFC Championship Game, the Bills hit on something that the Bengals can only hope to duplicate.

They had the perfect combination of the right coach (Marv Levy), the right offense (K Gun), and the right skill players (Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, etc.).

We’re not about to predict a run of Super Bowl appearances for the Bengals, but they certainly have what might be the makings of a proven blueprint with Taylor, Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.

But we’d be remiss if we failed to mention the presence of Bruce Smith on the Buffalo defense. Having one of the best pass rushers ever to pair with a high-scoring offense that forced teams into passing situations was an ideal match for Buffalo.

The Bengals are heading in the right direction here. Their pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks increased from 25 percent of dropbacks last season to 39 percent in 2021.

1999 Rams


This was as remarkable a shift as you’ll find. The Rams went from 4-12 in 1998 to Super Bowl champs in 1999. But their reversal came after many years of futility. St. Louis averaged 5.2 wins in the five seasons preceding the championship.

Their turnaround also had common characteristics with that of the Bengals. The Rams saw quarterback Kurt Warner take over as a starter in 1999, throwing a career-high 41 touchdown passes. They also got incredible contributions from running back Marshall Faulk in his first season after being traded from the Colts. Faulk put together a historic individual performance, surpassing 1,000 yards as a rusher and receiver. He finished with 2,429 scrimmage yards (second most in NFL history).

The Rams went from the 27th-ranked offense in 1998 to No. 1 in 1999. The Bengals’ increase wasn’t quite that dramatic, but Cincinnati did go from 29th in scoring last season to seventh this season.

A funny thing happened when the St. Louis offense caught fire: The defense benefited. The Rams led the NFL in sacks as a team and defensive end Kevin Carter led the league individually. That’s a formula that works even two decades later. In a passing league, you’ve got to throw the ball successfully and stop opposing quarterbacks.

2017 Jaguars


What’s interesting about these examples is these teams generally were able to sustain their turnarounds.

That is not true of this team.

The Jaguars’ unexpected run to the 2017 AFC Championship Game was remarkable when viewed in the context of where they came from. Jacksonville averaged a mere 3.4 wins in the five seasons prior to their postseason run. That’s the worst of any team using our specific parameters. But in the four seasons since that 10-6 campaign, the Jaguars have averaged only 4.3 wins.

Jacksonville clearly bucked a trend among teams with similar turnarounds by doing it with defense. The Jaguars’ offense in 2017 actually had a slightly negative expected points added mark, so it’s hard to assign much credit there. Conversely, Jacksonville led the NFL in defensive expected points added by a significant margin. Opponents averaged just 16.8 points and Jacksonville had the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense.

Without a true franchise quarterback (no offense to Blake Bortles) and an offense incapable of holding up its end of the deal, the Jaguars quickly faded as key pieces of the defense began to depart. Their 2017 playoff run was a prime example of a team getting into the postseason, getting hot and doing something remarkable.

But the Jaguars lacked what the Bengals appear to have: A true foundation.

2019 49ers


The 49ers are back in the NFC Championship Game again, which is not something most expected. But this appearance is certainly less surprising than their last.

Before advancing the Super Bowl, the 2019 Niners were coming off an average of five wins in the previous five seasons, including just four wins in 2018.

Their recent years, however, show the value of stability. The 49ers went through three coaching changes between 2015-17, with Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly serving for one season each after Jim Harbaugh departed.

The 49ers, like the Jaguars, enjoyed great success in building their defense. They were second in the league in defensive expected points added in 2019. But, unlike Jacksonville, they’ve been productive enough offensively to remain relevant. The 49ers were a top-10 team in offensive yardage in 2019 and this season.

Their long-term outlook remains unclear. But in the short term, what San Francisco is doing shows the value of a balanced roster.

As for the Bengals, they’ve already made a fair amount of history. If they manage to beat the Chiefs on Sunday, they’ll add yet another chapter to an already intriguing story.

 

 

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