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The Rams Analysis Thread


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This may belong in some other thread, so feel free to combine as appropriate.

 

The Bengals have an opponent in the Super Bowl. However, unlike the Chiefs etc., not a lot is discussed regarding how or why they are here (other than Aaron Donald and Cooper Cupp). 
 

What makes these guys tick? Is it all McVay? 
 

What matchups are in the Bengals’ favor? Against them? How do they exploit one, and limit the other? 
 

Interested in your thoughts. 

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Really great question IMHO and anxious to hear what others who watch more games than I do have to say.  I'm only really know and am concerned about the obvious like you already mentioned, specifically Aaron Donald against our OLine and Kupp in general.  Matchups are so key in today's NFL so let's hear it from some of you guys who know more about the Rams.  On the other hand, the Bengals have excelled in 2nd half adjustments regardless, so maybe the confidence is right there.

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In the NFC Championship game, Stafford had 337 yards passing--but managed 20 points out of it (with an INT). Granted the SF defense is good, but with Cupp and OBJ combining for 255 yards receiving, it seems they were leaving a lot of points on the field. 

 

Maybe this is a pattern with them--but haven't' done a game-by-game breakdown yet. 

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1 hour ago, Cricket said:

The talking heads that I’ve heard address matchups in this game pretty much say that the Rams have the advantage in every matchup…except QB.  
 

IMO, the most important matchup favors the Bengals:  🧡

 

 

🦗

We have a better kicker and mic cart.

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Start with their most obvious strength. Here's some squawking head's look at how great they are in this group: 

 

Rams defensive line a major mismatch

When I picked the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl last year, I went against my one principle when picking football games -- the game is won on the offensive and defensive lines. The Buccaneers defensive line was one of the best at getting after the quarterback and the Chiefs offensive line was banged up. I ignored that because Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes were an unstoppable force for three years and the combination would find a way to maneuver past the Chiefs' glaring weakness. 

Mahomes was pressured 29 times, the most in Super Bowl history, and the Chiefs were blown out by the Buccaneers 31-9. This year, I'm going with my principle, no matter how good Burrow is. The Bengals offensive line is simply outmatched by the Rams defensive line. 

Let's start with Aaron Donald and Von Miller, who have been a dynamic duo this postseason. Donald and Miller each have 16 pressures in three playoff games, tied for the most in the NFL. Miller has been revitalized since the Rams traded for him in Week 10, leading the NFL in tackles for loss with 16. His 46 pressures are fourth-most in the league and his seven sacks are tied for 10th. The player with the second-most tackles for loss since Miller joined the Rams: Aaron Donald (14). 

 

Donald finished with 14 sacks and 93 pressures on the year while Miller had 11.5 sacks and 71 pressures (including stats with Broncos). Leonard Floyd, the other piece on the Rams defensive front, had 10.5 sacks and 65 pressures on the year. Including the playoffs, Donald, Miller, and Floyd rank amongst the top 12 in most pressures in the NFL. 

The Rams finished sixth in the league with 223 pressures and third with 50 sacks -- one of only three teams to finish with 50 sacks on the year. They're one of the top five defensive lines in football for a reason -- and get to go up against a Bengals offensive line that's one of the worst in football. 

The Bengals have allowed only 207 pressures on the year (10th-fewest in NFL), but Joe Burrow has just 2.37 seconds before facing pressure -- tied for the second-fewest time in the league. The 2.68 seconds Burrow has to throw the ball is the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Burrow has been sacked 63 times this season (including playoffs), which is the most by a quarterback starting a Super Bowl in NFL history. The 12 sacks Burrow has taken this postseason is tied for the third-most for any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. The Bengals have allowed 55 sacks in the regular season, the third-most in the league. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2022-super-bowl-odds-pick-rams-defensive-line-will-lead-l-a-to-first-super-bowl-title-since-1999-season/

 

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1 hour ago, tibor75 said:

The Bengals cannot run the ball on 1st down as much as they have been doing.  It's not going to work and sets them up to fail. 

Bengals ran 60% on first down against the Chiefs ..47% against the Titans..

I think they run 33% against the Rams.

.

Rams employ a 5 man front on  1stcdowns..

5-1-5 formation..

That leaves only the MLB to cover short passes..

Burrow will read and throw to the open zone on quick passes.

If they bring a safety he'll look to go long..

 

BTW...

Our defense is going to be a tough matchup fir Stafford as well..

 

 

 

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Looking at their vaunted offense (at least what the squawking heads say), it's Stafford and Cupp. 

 

Looking at their last 4 regular season games, and the games in the Playoffs, Cupp always gets yards and makes great plays. Stafford either throws 3 TD passes, or 3 INTS. Not seeing where in either scenario it was due to pressure on him, or lack of pressure. They may have an underrated running game--they are not TN, but not KC either. 

 

Not sure what to focus on--other than Cupp? 

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2 hours ago, Le Tigre said:

Looking at their vaunted offense (at least what the squawking heads say), it's Stafford and Cupp. 

 

Looking at their last 4 regular season games, and the games in the Playoffs, Cupp always gets yards and makes great plays. Stafford either throws 3 TD passes, or 3 INTS. Not seeing where in either scenario it was due to pressure on him, or lack of pressure. They may have an underrated running game--they are not TN, but not KC either. 

 

Not sure what to focus on--other than Cupp? 

 

Cupp had 220 yards against the Bengals overseas in 2019 with Goff as QB.  Weird thing is that they only won 24-10.  The Dullton had over 300 yards.

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Found this snippet regarding how SF would attack the LA defense (this was before the game of course):

 

“You probably know the conventional wisdom by now. The Rams defense plays a lot with two high safeties, giving up runs and throws underneath as a trade-off to prevent big pass plays downfield. This is true in some ways, not true in others. Given that conventional wisdom, you might be surprised at my first piece of advice for the 49ers offense: spread the Rams out.”

 

“The Rams are not known for the strength of their off-ball linebackers, so it will surprise you to learn that they were a significantly better defense when they had more linebackers and fewer defensive backs on the field. Overall, NFL offenses average 5.2 yards per play against base defense (four defensive backs), 5.7 yards against nickel, and 6.2 yards against dime. But when the Rams put their defense on the field, the gap between base defense and dime defense was 2.5 yards per play, not 1.0 yards. And in the two games against San Francisco, the differences were even more extreme.”

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Looking at their rushing stats for the year…25th in total rushing. 
 

The Bengals not a ton better at 23rd. 
 

Playoffs they ranked 7th. Bengals 9th. This was in 3 games

 

The rush needs to be accounted for, but do the Bengals go more KC game-like with more emphasis on pass rush…more TN rush-heavy…or the hybrid LV Raiders-like? 
 

 

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PFF has been a sketchy source for “rankings”, but curious that LA’s and the Bengals are 10-11

 

10. LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams' pass-defense unit regressed some from 2020, but make no mistake: This is still an above-average group. And star cornerback Jalen Ramseyis a huge reason why. He has featured in a versatile role this season, with over 300 snaps each in the slot and on the outside. It doesn’t matter where Ramsey is at, though — he’s been a top-tier player at either position. He ranks top 10 in both slot and outside coverage grade. Ramsey produced the highest coverage grade and most PFF WAR among all cornerbacks in the regular season.

11. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati’s passing offense wasn’t the team's only unit to take a major leap in 2021. The Bengals' pass coverage finished the regular season as the seventh-most improved group year over year in terms of EPA allowed per pass. Two free-agent signings, in particular — Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton — have helped them get there. Awuzie was the second-highest graded cornerback of the regular season, while Hilton was the sevent

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On 2/4/2022 at 11:15 AM, tibor75 said:

The Bengals cannot run the ball on 1st down as much as they have been doing.  It's not going to work and sets them up to fail. 

 

I am forgetting the source, but im told, regardless of how dominant Donald is, they often bring 5 to pressure, (not sure if Von Miller changed that at all but i dont think it did) as most teams were doubling donald and having some success, so i think bringing 5 and adding von was to improve Aarons chances of getting a 1 on 1 or favorable matchup. to be honest just bringing 5 makes me feel better, do they change their entire scheme or gameplan since maybe they can just get there with 4? i dont know, but if you wanna bring 5, everyone not in coverage makes Joe more dangerous. I am very eager to see the the chess match two coaches who know each other well come up with.

 

 

On 2/4/2022 at 12:53 PM, claptonrocks said:

Bengals ran 60% on first down against the Chiefs ..47% against the Titans..

I think they run 33% against the Rams.

.

Rams employ a 5 man front on  1stcdowns..

5-1-5 formation..

That leaves only the MLB to cover short passes..

Burrow will read and throw to the open zone on quick passes.

If they bring a safety he'll look to go long..

 

BTW...

Our defense is going to be a tough matchup fir Stafford as well..

 

 

 

if CJ is back i MAY agree. but the busted run game on first was planned to try to force them to leave theyr 3-1-7 or 3-8 coverages, one or two of our biggest passes was on first down when they dropped down to cover the run. i think lap broke it down on one of the youtube things after the game or the podcast i dont recall.

 

On 2/4/2022 at 1:16 PM, Jason said:

My understanding is that aside from Ramsey, our WR vs their DB favors us. And I still think if they try to single Ramsey on Chase, Chase is still going to get his share. 

 

id guess they either get cocky and let ramsey cover chase 1 on 1, but ramsey doesnt travel so is our choice. or they hope to double chase and put ramsey on tee, which is the usual defense plan, double the #1 WR and put best CB on #2, hoping to lock down both. Boyd for MVP?

 

On 2/4/2022 at 2:30 PM, spicoli said:


Like against Tenn and KC? 
What you see is what you get with the OL at this point, IMO.

They'll win regardless. 

 

 

even in your two examples the difference is large, 9 sacks vs 1. if that were the case we would have given up 5-6 sacks per week every single week. we got sacked the most, but averaged 3 per week i think. maybe 3.2 or something. so clearly scheme plays a huge part.

 

in 5 games we gave up 2,1, or 0 sacks this season( one of this against lil Watt vs pit). in 5 games we gave up 5 or more....

 

scheme and style make a big difference.

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7 hours ago, Le Tigre said:

Looking at their rushing stats for the year…25th in total rushing. 
 

The Bengals not a ton better at 23rd. 
 

Playoffs they ranked 7th. Bengals 9th. This was in 3 games

 

The rush needs to be accounted for, but do the Bengals go more KC game-like with more emphasis on pass rush…more TN rush-heavy…or the hybrid LV Raiders-like? 
 

 

 

 

I suspect we do drop more back but it wont be 8 because we "dropped" that 8th guy back so that Hubbard could Spy on Mahomes. Stafford is not much of a mobile QB so we wont really need to spy him, we likely drop 7 and send 4 on the Dline imho

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3 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

 

 

I suspect we do drop more back but it wont be 8 because we "dropped" that 8th guy back so that Hubbard could Spy on Mahomes. Stafford is not much of a mobile QB so we wont really need to spy him, we likely drop 7 and send 4 on the Dline imho

Makes a lot of sense. 
 

I also am not sure how their RB’s are out of the backfield 

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If you don’t mind a view from the other side allow me to chirp in

 

First off Rams keep their locker room, SOFI houses two teams and actually has 3 locker rooms, you guys get the Chargers room 

 

Rams more often than not, rush 4 not 5

 

I’m so happy for the Bengals, love your Team, your QB is legit, what your team has accomplished has been a tremendous feel good story and frankly we’re going to have to bring our absolute A game

 

Rams kryptonite is power run teams, and while Mixon is way better than what we have, I’m not sure Cincy fits a power run team, good for us

 

My guess it’s going to take over 38 points to win this game

 

 

 

 

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The Rams love to throw the ball with Stafford nearly throwing 40 times each game.  His main target as LT has stated is Kupp.  OBJ is next.  Their starting RB in Henderson has been on IR since December where prior NE RB Michel took over with Akers returning from injury. They don’t run that ball that much but when they do they seem to be somewhat productive.  They only had a RB go over 100 yards in two games this season in Michel and he did that against the Jags and Vikes.  These games were some of the lowest throwing games in throws and yards for Stafford on the season.  Their running game seemed to pick up with Michel starting.  In their three playoff games though their running game was low and Akers was top runner in two of them.  Only 58 yards as a high in Michel against Cardinals.  They don’t seem to catch the ball out the backfield that much or I should say, very little.  Either run or in backfield for blocking for the most part.  If Henderson is activated, I don’t see him doing much of anything or even hardly playing.  Stafford throws to his TEs in Higbee or Blanton, Higbee for the most part.  He doesn’t target them that often.  If I had to compare the Rams to our O we seem to be very similar in playing styles.  I wonder what it could be?  Hmmmm Yes, I think it is the Zac McVay connection.  I think the key is to cover Kupp like LT stated.  That will be the objective but a hard one to do.  In their season losses, Kupp still did very well.  If Kupp gets his, then OBJ and their TEs need to hardly get anything. 

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