TE Offseason 2023

[T-Dub]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Honestly what could they do to make you happy?  You’ve beaten this horse to death.  They signed 3 new free agent starters last year and the best possible free agent LT this year.  It’s not their fault they had catastrophic injuries hit the o-line all in a row right at the end of last season.  Sometimes shit doesn’t work out.  There’s not a team in the league that could have won it all with losing 3 starting linemen for the playoffs.  Hopefully it doesn’t happen again but who knows?  It’s a salary cap league and you can’t afford 9 starter quality players on the OL.  They should be able to add to what they have in the draft but remaining free agents are slim pickings.  It’s still going to be a better unit going into Week 1 with Brown in the mix.

 

Simple; build an OL that isn't a liability.  I'd agree they're getting close but there's still no RT and no quality depth at any position.  Never mind 9 starter quality players on the OL.. How about 5? Maybe even a couple more that aren't totally useless?

 

Sure they've made a good effort but let's finish the job.

[membengal]

Back to TE - my longer thoughts (not that anyone should necessarily give a shit)

 

A few quick notes:

---Smith is still just 24. At the draft next month, current draft talking heads TE draft crush Dalton Kincaid upon being drafted will be just one year younger than Smith (only Smith will have four years of NFL experience while Kincaid will be a rookie).
---The injuries don't seem to have a pattern - so - the usual element of flukiness and bad luck. No particular reason to suspect that will necessarily continue. It could, because...the NFL is about injuries. But other than bad luck...no reason to predict it necessarily.
---Hurst had 52 catches for 414 yards and 2 TDs last year. In 2021 Uzomah had 49 catches for 493 yards and 5 TDs. I can glean from that, that under this version of the offense roughly 50 catches for TE 1 are available. Smith certainly is more athletic than Uzomah was and roughly on par with Hurst's athleticism. I see no reason to think he can't be in the range of these numbers.
---The price was certainly right and people can pooh pooh him picking the bengals over other options, but the fact remains, he picked the Bengals over other options. Didn't used to happen. Likely did so because the last two TEs in this offense putting up those rather pedestrian numbers have gotten weirdly PAID. Also, chance to, yaknow, WIN.
---This signing takes SOME pressure off what to do at pick 28. If there is a TE there they love, then they can still take him. But this opens up more comfortably waiting to rounds 3 or 4, say, and getting one of the 11 top 100 ranked TEs to work their way into the TE room without as much pressure to immediately be useful.

So, all around, pretty necessary and good signing from my perspective. Same with Sidney Jones. They are doing a good job in FA - even in second wave FA - at giving themselves legit options in the draft as opposed to having desperate needs that need to be fulfilled at 28...

[sparky151]

Irv Smith is a very small TE. He's 6'2' and weighs about 240. He can block in space but isn't much of an inline blocker vs pass rushers. So if we want a TE that can hold up vs TJ Watt or Myles Garrett, he isn't it. He also has a reputation for drops. That can and should be improved upon. But he's more of a big WR than a force in the run game. 

[spicoli]

Lol what tight end is going to hold up against TJ Watt and Myles Garrett? Talk about unrealistic expectations 🤦‍♂️

[MichaelWeston]

29 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Irv Smith is a very small TE. He's 6'2' and weighs about 240. He can block in space but isn't much of an inline blocker vs pass rushers. So if we want a TE that can hold up vs TJ Watt or Myles Garrett, he isn't it. He also has a reputation for drops. That can and should be improved upon. But he's more of a big WR than a force in the run game. 

Despite his size, he is a very good second level blocker in the run game. 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/allbengals-insiders-plus/bengals-film-breakdown-irv-smith-jr-adds-cincinnati-offense

[T-Dub]

36 minutes ago, spicoli said:

Lol what tight end is going to hold up against TJ Watt and Myles Garrett? Talk about unrealistic expectations 🤦‍♂️

 

This exactly. That's what the RT is for...

[T-Dub]

3 hours ago, membengal said:

Back to TE - my longer thoughts (not that anyone should necessarily give a shit)

 

A few quick notes:

---Smith is still just 24. At the draft next month, current draft talking heads TE draft crush Dalton Kincaid upon being drafted will be just one year younger than Smith (only Smith will have four years of NFL experience while Kincaid will be a rookie).
---The injuries don't seem to have a pattern - so - the usual element of flukiness and bad luck. No particular reason to suspect that will necessarily continue. It could, because...the NFL is about injuries. But other than bad luck...no reason to predict it necessarily.
---Hurst had 52 catches for 414 yards and 2 TDs last year. In 2021 Uzomah had 49 catches for 493 yards and 5 TDs. I can glean from that, that under this version of the offense roughly 50 catches for TE 1 are available. Smith certainly is more athletic than Uzomah was and roughly on par with Hurst's athleticism. I see no reason to think he can't be in the range of these numbers.
---The price was certainly right and people can pooh pooh him picking the bengals over other options, but the fact remains, he picked the Bengals over other options. Didn't used to happen. Likely did so because the last two TEs in this offense putting up those rather pedestrian numbers have gotten weirdly PAID. Also, chance to, yaknow, WIN.
---This signing takes SOME pressure off what to do at pick 28. If there is a TE there they love, then they can still take him. But this opens up more comfortably waiting to rounds 3 or 4, say, and getting one of the 11 top 100 ranked TEs to work their way into the TE room without as much pressure to immediately be useful.

So, all around, pretty necessary and good signing from my perspective. Same with Sidney Jones. They are doing a good job in FA - even in second wave FA - at giving themselves legit options in the draft as opposed to having desperate needs that need to be fulfilled at 28...

 

Think it indicates they have at least a couple of TEs on the board. I'm good with that, everyone says it's a TE-rich draft so it makes sense that one is going to be the BPA in the early rounds.  Shouldn't have to reach to get a solid starter.

 

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, spicoli said:

Lol what tight end is going to hold up against TJ Watt and Myles Garrett? Talk about unrealistic expectations 🤦‍♂️

 

The expectation isn't that they can block those guys one on one repeatedly. The expectation is that they can combine with the RT to keep them from impacting Burrow or they can chip and run a route or they can make it upfield past them on a running play to block at the second level. Smith would be notably worse than lots of other TEs at those tasks. 

[MOC]

2 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Irv Smith is a very small TE. He's 6'2' and weighs about 240. He can block in space but isn't much of an inline blocker vs pass rushers. So if we want a TE that can hold up vs TJ Watt or Myles Garrett, he isn't it. He also has a reputation for drops. That can and should be improved upon. But he's more of a big WR than a force in the run game. 

According to the SI article Michael Weston linked above, he's only had 4 drops his entire career?

[T-Dub]

I'd be more worried about him being a force in the run game if we had a run game. This is not an offense that prioritizes running the ball.  2 AFCC's while being kind of terrible on the ground leads me to believe it's not really part of the game plan. What I've seen are very predictable 2-3 yard scampers every so often just to keep the defense honest. They're about to pay very mediocre back top 5 money just for the sake of continuity or whatever. 

 

This just isn't a running team.

[happyrid]

Smith is 6'2, 240. Small for a TE, no doubt. But seems like a lot of people are talking down about his size but unworried about somebody like Sam LaPorta, who is 6'3, 245. 

 

 

[dex]

5 hours ago, membengal said:

Back to TE - my longer thoughts (not that anyone should necessarily give a shit)

 

A few quick notes:

---Smith is still just 24. At the draft next month, current draft talking heads TE draft crush Dalton Kincaid upon being drafted will be just one year younger than Smith (only Smith will have four years of NFL experience while Kincaid will be a rookie).
---The injuries don't seem to have a pattern - so - the usual element of flukiness and bad luck. No particular reason to suspect that will necessarily continue. It could, because...the NFL is about injuries. But other than bad luck...no reason to predict it necessarily.
---Hurst had 52 catches for 414 yards and 2 TDs last year. In 2021 Uzomah had 49 catches for 493 yards and 5 TDs. I can glean from that, that under this version of the offense roughly 50 catches for TE 1 are available. Smith certainly is more athletic than Uzomah was and roughly on par with Hurst's athleticism. I see no reason to think he can't be in the range of these numbers.
---The price was certainly right and people can pooh pooh him picking the bengals over other options, but the fact remains, he picked the Bengals over other options. Didn't used to happen. Likely did so because the last two TEs in this offense putting up those rather pedestrian numbers have gotten weirdly PAID. Also, chance to, yaknow, WIN.
---This signing takes SOME pressure off what to do at pick 28. If there is a TE there they love, then they can still take him. But this opens up more comfortably waiting to rounds 3 or 4, say, and getting one of the 11 top 100 ranked TEs to work their way into the TE room without as much pressure to immediately be useful.

So, all around, pretty necessary and good signing from my perspective. Same with Sidney Jones. They are doing a good job in FA - even in second wave FA - at giving themselves legit options in the draft as opposed to having desperate needs that need to be fulfilled at 28...

Good post. 

 

I think TE opportunities increased last season because of all of the Cover 2/shell defenses. Hurst had 52 catches for 414 yards and 2 TDs last year, but he suffered his calf injury in the 1st quarter of the KC game and then missed the next 4 games as well. He would likely have had at least 70 receptions otherwise. Plenty of TE targets available in Cincinnati.

[|High School Harry|]

2 hours ago, MOC said:

According to the SI article Michael Weston linked above, he's only had 4 drops his entire career?

You do know MW is Guru from the old board, don't you?

[sparky151]

4 hours ago, MOC said:

According to the SI article Michael Weston linked above, he's only had 4 drops his entire career?

 

PFF has him with 5 drops for a career % of 5 and a 7.1% rate in 2022. Those are about double the % for Hurst for both last season and career. Vikings fans seem to think he drops too many catchable passes. 

[MOC]

16 hours ago, High School Harry said:

You do know MW is Guru from the old board, don't you?

I do now 

 

Thanks HSH!

[MOC]

14 hours ago, sparky151 said:

 

PFF has him with 5 drops for a career % of 5 and a 7.1% rate in 2022. Those are about double the % for Hurst for both last season and career. Vikings fans seem to think he drops too many catchable passes. 

I'm not really a stat watcher/lookup guy? 5% and 7% drop rates don't seem to be that bad? How does that rate compare with other starting TE's in the NFL? (obviously not comparing to Kelce or even Gronk although he's "retired", they're both first ballot HOF as far as I'm concerned) Or even to some starting slot or outside WR's? 🤔

[sparky151]

3 hours ago, MOC said:

I'm not really a stat watcher/lookup guy? 5% and 7% drop rates don't seem to be that bad? How does that rate compare with other starting TE's in the NFL? (obviously not comparing to Kelce or even Gronk although he's "retired", they're both first ballot HOF as far as I'm concerned) Or even to some starting slot or outside WR's? 🤔

 

Smith's 2022 stats would have been the highest drop % on the Bengals. Mixon dropped 6.8% of catchable passes, Irwin 5.6% and Chase 5.3%. 

 

Smith had the 3rd highest drop rate on the Vikings last season, behind Mattison and Mundt.

[|High School Harry|]

53 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

Smith's 2022 stats would have been the highest drop % on the Bengals. Mixon dropped 6.8% of catchable passes, Irwin 5.6% and Chase 5.3%. 

 

Smith had the 3rd highest drop rate on the Vikings last season, behind Mattison and Mundt.

So we've got an undersized tight end who can't block the big boys, can't catch and is coming off an injury.

[|westside bengal|]

If they draft a couple of TE's from the supposed TE rich draft pool then Smith will probably just be a backup/mentor is my thinking.

[MichaelWeston]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

 

Smith's 2022 stats would have been the highest drop % on the Bengals. Mixon dropped 6.8% of catchable passes, Irwin 5.6% and Chase 5.3%. 

 

Smith had the 3rd highest drop rate on the Vikings last season, behind Mattison and Mundt.

Why are we just taking his 2022 year as his truth and ignoring his other 2 years and college?

[MOC]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

 

Smith's 2022 stats would have been the highest drop % on the Bengals. Mixon dropped 6.8% of catchable passes, Irwin 5.6% and Chase 5.3%. 

 

Smith had the 3rd highest drop rate on the Vikings last season, behind Mattison and Mundt.

Thanks  Are number of targets considered in these things as well? I can see drop percentages might be larger if targeted more, giving a skewed perception? And is it really fair to compare him to Chase? Is it really fair to compare anyone to Chase?

[MOC]

4 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

Why are we just taking his 2022 year as his truth and ignoring his other 2 years and college?

Hello my long lost friend 😊 Gud to see you again

 

 

[membengal]

21 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said:

Why are we just taking his 2022 year as his truth and ignoring his other 2 years and college?

because of an agenda to always look at things as shitty as possible

[HavePityPlease]

Just a note about Irv Smith and "the dropsies", it seems it was two specific drops in particular that set the narrative that he's a "drops guy", because those were highly visible, probable TD drops, the type where everybody groans.  I read a couple articles that said pretty much this (without the author knowing it), something along the lines of "this is Smith's second big drop this season, and we'll have to wait and see if it's a habit like the fans fear or just a blip".  Considering the number of highlights where he's making very difficult catches I'm not really that worried until he starts actually dropping it here - at which point I'd expect we have at least competent backups ready to go, and we can move on.  Again I consider this signing low-risk, high-reward as long as we have a backup plan of simple competency.

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, MichaelWeston said:

Why are we just taking his 2022 year as his truth and ignoring his other 2 years and college?

 

Last year's numbers are easy to find. It's not really recency bias, some Vikings fans said he drops a lot of balls and the stats seem to bear that out. 

 

1 hour ago, MOC said:

Thanks  Are number of targets considered in these things as well? I can see drop percentages might be larger if targeted more, giving a skewed perception? And is it really fair to compare him to Chase? Is it really fair to compare anyone to Chase?

 

It's based on catchable balls rather than targets. Not the receiver's fault if the QB throws it out of bounds. Usually the higher % shows lower volume as the QB might have trust issues. Chase had more total drops than Smith if that makes you feel better due to much higher volume. 

 

1 hour ago, membengal said:

because of an agenda to always look at things as shitty as possible

 

Not really. Smith was probably the best TE left but there are better options in the draft. Smith is a backup caliber TE. He played behind Kyle Rudolph and TJ Hockensen for the Vikes. He'll likely be a backup to a rookie TE here. Let's not make him more than he is.