TE Offseason 2023

[T-Dub]

2 hours ago, sparky151 said:

 

That production was almost all Hurst. Irv Smith is effectively Hurst's replacement.  The rest of the league thinks Hurst is a much better player than Smith

 

Which is odd since Smith projected to have better numbers if he didn't miss 8 games. I definitely liked Hurst's attitude & such but his production really wasn't anything extraordinary.

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, PatternMaster said:

 

Well I guess we will never know because the Bengals chose not to draft him in the first round, they obviously like the guys on the roster as they didn't draft a TE throughout the entire draft. 

 

Yes, agreed they drafted players they liked. And it was a mistake to not draft a TE in favor of depth players at other positions. 

[BBR]

3 hours ago, sparky151 said:

That production was almost all Hurst. Irv Smith is effectively Hurst's replacement.  The rest of the league thinks Hurst is a much better player than Smith so it's no sure thing the current TE group hits even those totals. I would have bet a rookie Mike Mayer would match the yard and TD totals by himself. 

 

Was this the consensus before, or after Hurst played for the Bengals?  Will Irv Smith see a similar rise in value after having Burrow toss him the ball?

 

I wouldn't say that Hurst has really been all that impressive throughout his career:

 

YEAR	TEAM	G	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	1st	1st%	20+	40+
TOTAL		70	177	1718	9.7	61	14	95	53.7	17	2
2022	Cincinnati Bengals	13	52	414	8	29	2	25	48.1	4	0
2021	Atlanta Falcons	13	26	221	8.5	33	3	11	42.3	1	0
2020	Atlanta Falcons	16	56	571	10.2	42	6	35	62.5	5	1
2019	Baltimore Ravens	16	30	349	11.6	61	2	16	53.3	4	1
2018	Baltimore Ravens	12	13	163	12.5	32	1	8	61.5	3	0

 

 

Here's Irv Smith's stats for comparison:

 

YEAR	TEAM	G	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	1st	1st%	20+	40+
TOTAL		37	91	858	9.4	36	9	48	52.7	11	0
2022	Minnesota Vikings	8	25	182	7.3	17	2	9	36	0	0
2020	Minnesota Vikings	13	30	365	12.2	36	5	22	73.3	6	0
2019	Minnesota Vikings	16	36	311	8.6	29	2	17	47.2	5	0

 

 

Oddly enough, their NFL draft prospect grades are both 6.40 (not that this means much at all).

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/hayden-hurst/32004855-5249-5014-7c57-e10d2c41fe87

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/irv-smith/3200534d-4900-0018-f675-8c060d792d35

 

If you put an stock into those NFL draft prospect grades at all, then there were only 3 TEs this year that are rated higher than Irv Smith:

Luke Musgrave OREGON STATE Rnd 2, Pick 11    TE    Green Bay Packers    Senior    6.49

Dalton Kincaid UTAH Rnd 1, Pick 25    TE    Buffalo Bills    Senior    6.48

Michael Mayer NOTRE DAME Rnd 2, Pick 4    TE    Las Vegas Raiders    Junior    6.44

 

It will be interesting to see how those 3 dudes perform.

 

Anyways, I'm just not sure I agree with the idea that Hurst is considered a "much better player" rather than an equivalent player(prior to joining the Bengals).  Hurst is just benefitting from the offense he left and people are not giving Irv Smith the benefit of a doubt for the offense he's joining.

[sparky151]

Rankings as draft prospects don't mean much for veteran free agents. Hurst's best season was 2020 in Atlanta before they drafted Pitts. But even last year he had more yards than any season Smith has had. Smith was drafted in the 2nd round to replace Kyle Rudolph but didn't live up to his draft status. Vikings traded for Hockenson last year and didn't bring Smith back as even the backup. 

 

Both were free agents this year and Hurst's AAV is about 4 times Smith's.