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Posted

So currently the bengals are a part win away from being .500, but 2 games under .500 as the future stands. 

 

The CURRENT trend, win percentage wise, is .500 gets you into the playoffs, as the Broncos are .500 and are in the 7 Slot for the playoffs.

 

Current Standings

 

1. KC

2. Buffalo

3. Pittsburg

4. Texans

5. Ravens (7-3)

6. Chargers (5-3)

7. Broncos - 5-5

8. Colts (4-6)

9. Bengals (4-6)

10. Jets (3-6) about to be 3-7 it looks like.

11.  Patriots (3-7) but have H2H tiebreaker with us if they were to join the chase (unlikely)

 

so we arent going to catch the ravens for the 5 spot, they have tie breaker and 2 game lead. We would have to win out and them go 4-3. Not likely.

 

So we are chasing:

 

Chargers (5-3) - Chargers face: Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Bucs, Broncos, Patriots, Raiders

I think they lose to the teams in Red, they could also lose to the Falcons and Bucs honestly. only 2 "easy" wins on the table. say they split the maybe games, and lose the games they should. thats 9-8 final record. if we tie that we would have the tie breaker if we beat them head to head. This gives us a 2 loss buffer.

 

 

Broncos (5-5) - Broncos Face: Falcons, Raiders, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs

I think they should lose to Bengals and Chiefs, so this may be a week 17/18 barn burner finish for the wild card. If those lose those two, win the 4 in green, and the Falcons a toss up, thats either 9-8 or 10-7 finish for them. They could lose to the Raiders or Browns potentially too but their defense should embarass the raiders QB's, browns maybe get lucky and score enough to win? really the broncos fastest path to losing is their offense giving up a turnover in scoring position. 

 

if they are 10-7 we need to be 10-7 and have that win over them, that would get us in. if the ate 9-8 again with the win vs them, gives us a 2 loss buffer again to get in.. our wins just have to be strategic ones.

 

Colts @ 4-6 are a shit show, probably a 8-9 finish in their future at best. they face: Jets, Lions, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants, Jags. while this is a shit group of teams, they are a shit team. They currently have one more conference win than us, they easily lose to the Lions, Broncos, and i think the jets beat them after getting stomped by the Cards today, thats 8-9, they have the easiest path but are the worst team left in the race.

 

Bengals - 4-6 - We face: Chargers, Steelers, Cowboys, Titans, Browns, Broncos, Steelers. All of these teams are beatable. Chargers titans browns are the "easy" wins IMO, that gets us to 7 wins, Cowboys, Steelers x2, Broncos are all maybe wins, can win them all for sure. Will the steelers be locked into the 2 seed or 3 seed and not need to play the last week? Can we score 28 points against the Broncos? Broncos have scored more than 28 points 2 times this season, vs raiders and saints, and i think they had defensive scores in both?

 

With nothing else in chase (divison, etc) the Cowboys are the least harmful statistical loss we could have, an NFC loss wont factor in to any tie breaker, but they suck so we should probably just beat them. If we could rattle off 4-1 the next 5 weeks, that lands us at 8-7 going into Broncos and Steelers weeks. and lands the broncos at 9-6 going into the week 17(game 16) matchup with us at home. that game would likely determine the wild card spot. if we lose, we are likely looking at a MUST WIN vs pittsburgh in week 18, in pittsburgh and maybe need help from someone else to lose, Chargers need to be eliminated from the run by then, cause they play trash teams in the final two weeks.

 

 

Thoughts?

 

How do you see them 3 wildcard teams race playing out? 

Posted

Jets play: Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jags, Rams, Bills, Dolphins, and having 7 losses already, they can only lose 1 more game? they are done. i see 5 possible losses on their schedule, 3 for sure, IMO so theyll max at 7-10, IMO.

 

Patriots at 3-7 also, Face: Rams, Dolphins, Colts, Cardinals, Bills, Chargers, Bills - I see easily 3 losses here which also maxes them at 7-10.

 

so i left these out as it appears they are flopping to a key draft pick.

 

so there is no poressure coming from behind us. We are the hunters, no one is hunting us.

  • Upvote 1
Posted

I like our odds vs the chargers, and then going into the steelers game coming off a bye, at home, 2 weeks to prepare, rest, get healthy, and theyll be coming off a home battle against the Ravens then short turnaround TNF vs browns, so they get a few extra days as well, but coming off two division games. hopefuly the browns can rough up wilson and their offense a little bit.

 

We should also beat the cowboys, backup QB who we will ahve several weeks of film on, this is a winable game. that would get us to 7 wins going into titans and browns, which should get us to 9 wins. but after that browns game we need a minimum of 7 wins for any prayer, and 8 wins for a solid chance of getting a wildcard spot.

 

 

Posted
Just now, T-Dub said:

I have a hard time calling any game a win when the defense can't stop anybody. They're scoring 30+ and still losing. Who are they going to beat doing that?

 

The defense has rough games against top offenses(without getting into the defensive injuries those weeks, eh?), the ravens x 2 and the commanders are top offenses in the league, baltimore is #2 Wash is #3, 31.8 and 30 ppg, taking away the top 3 offenses we faced the defense has given up: 16, 26, 24, 7, 14, 37, 24. Bengals average 27 PPG. so we should have won 6 of those games. 

 

its not like the defense is giving up 27 points every week, they are averaging giving up 27 points per game, the 4 games of eagles, commanders, and ravens, they ahve smothered bad offenses, as they should, theyve given up lots to top offenses, like everyone else, and there are at least wat, 14 points in there from the two burrow pick 6 and fumble 6? which im sure some other teams have as well. so not an excuse there, just pointing it out. like its not likely burrow gives up defensive touchdowns again. but anything is possible.

 

the top offenses we face going forward is pitt at 13th, 23 PPG scored, and then Dallas, at 20th, 21.4 ppg scored. denver 23rd with 20ppg, and Cgargers 24th at 19.9 ppg, titans 27th, at 17ppg, cleveland 28th at 16.4 ppg

 

so my fears for the defense giving up tons of points is pretty minimal, do you think theyll collapse against one of these offenses?

 

Posted

Saying this team has ANY easy wins is laughable!  They're playing a last place schedule and have 4 wins against teams with

a combined record of 9-29 and ALL 4 teams in last place!  Chargers defense has only given up 118 points compared to the

Bengals giving up 262.  Play the Stealers twice and they're 3-0 with Russell Wilson.  You can say the Stealers are averaging

only 23 PPG but with Wilson they are averaging a hair over 30 PPG.  Their pass rush against our OL I won't even mention.

Last time we played Dallas, Cooper Rush was starting and we lost that game.  Broncos have a formidable defense and the

Bengals track record against rookie QB's is bad.  Callahan knows the Bengals offense like the back of his hand and I wouldn't

be surprised if they play over their heads against their HC's old team.  And if it weren't for the Browns being down to their

3rd string QB and a fluke 100 yard KO return by Jones that game could have gone either way!  I'm semi, SEMI confident the

Bengals win 2 more, maybe 3 more games but the playoffs!?  

  • Upvote 2
Posted

We lost to the Patriots, so right off the bat it has to be said that we are fully capable of losing to anybody the rest of the way.

 

That being said, Burrow is locked in, as is Ja'Marr. This gives us a chance vs anybody. We just need the defense to have a pulse.

 

We can withstand 1 more loss the rest of the way. If we are going to make the playoffs, that loss can come either next Sunday vs the Chargers or in Week 18 in Pittsburgh. If we beat San Diego LA next week, they'll be the first good team we've beaten all year. It's hard to be overly optimistic about doing something we haven't done yet. But we are overdue to finally win one of these.

 

We HAVE to beat Pittsburgh at home. We lose that, and it's a wrap. I think Burrow can beat them. But Zac can also get out-coached by Tomlin. We can and should win in Dallas and Nashville, and then at home vs the CFT. If we're still alive by the time Denver rolls into town, I like us beating them too.

 

Beating Pittsburgh twice will be tough. If we cough up a hair ball vs the Chargers next week, Week 18 will do-or-die. If we beat the Chargers, I will be very optimistic that we can finish 10-7 and get into the tournament.

 

If we get healthier in the coming weeks, I like our chances all the more. But we are on such a razor's edge, that one more key injury, or if we don't get Tee back for Pittsburgh, we are toast, IMO.

  • Upvote 1
Posted
2 hours ago, GoBengals said:

 

The defense has rough games against top offenses(without getting into the defensive injuries those weeks, eh?), the ravens x 2 and the commanders are top offenses in the league, baltimore is #2 Wash is #3, 31.8 and 30 ppg, taking away the top 3 offenses we faced the defense has given up: 16, 26, 24, 7, 14, 37, 24. Bengals average 27 PPG. so we should have won 6 of those games. 

 

its not like the defense is giving up 27 points every week, they are averaging giving up 27 points per game, the 4 games of eagles, commanders, and ravens, they ahve smothered bad offenses, as they should, theyve given up lots to top offenses, like everyone else, and there are at least wat, 14 points in there from the two burrow pick 6 and fumble 6? which im sure some other teams have as well. so not an excuse there, just pointing it out. like its not likely burrow gives up defensive touchdowns again. but anything is possible.

 

the top offenses we face going forward is pitt at 13th, 23 PPG scored, and then Dallas, at 20th, 21.4 ppg scored. denver 23rd with 20ppg, and Cgargers 24th at 19.9 ppg, titans 27th, at 17ppg, cleveland 28th at 16.4 ppg

 

so my fears for the defense giving up tons of points is pretty minimal, do you think theyll collapse against one of these offenses?

 

 

 

IDK man this is some pretty forgiving math.   If they did this or that other thing then sure, they'd be undefeated, right?  Feel like we've been running through these same scenarios for weeks now, trying to convince ourselves that they're still in it as the losses have piled up.  Does this look like a playoff team to you?

 

For the defense to collapse they'd have to stand up first.  Nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe they're going 6-1 or even 5-2.  A split seems more realistic and I'm not even terribly confident in saying that much.

Posted
13 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

 

IDK man this is some pretty forgiving math.   If they did this or that other thing then sure, they'd be undefeated, right?  Feel like we've been running through these same scenarios for weeks now, trying to convince ourselves that they're still in it as the losses have piled up.  Does this look like a playoff team to you?

 

For the defense to collapse they'd have to stand up first.  Nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe they're going 6-1 or even 5-2.  A split seems more realistic and I'm not even terribly confident in saying that much.

 

It looks like a one and done team to me, because there are 3 good teams in the ravens, bills and chiefs. 2 decent teams, in the Texans and steelers (vomit) and the rest of the conference is mediocre to bad. 

 

Any other year, no this would not be a playoff team, this year I'm not sold they arent.

Posted
3 hours ago, Bleeds Orange said:

 

I hate be the one to do this, but someone has to....

 

Jim Mora Playoffs GIF

You are perfectly right to show this. If nothing else, this team has shown a glaring propensity to play to the level of their opponents, and with Zach Taylor’s boneheaded calls, lose a lot of those games. 

  • Upvote 1
Posted
13 hours ago, Bleeds Orange said:

 

I hate be the one to do this, but someone has to....

 

Jim Mora Playoffs GIF

 

Famous as this gif is, it's funny for me personally that you post something with Jim Mora in it. Reason being...

 

I fully understand that I'm not qualified to call for any coach to be fired. I could tell you if the painter you hired was competent or not. And I could probably identify who on your IT team should be replaced. But every one of our coaches has probably forgotten more about football than I'll ever know.

 

So I'm not saying that anybody needs to go. But my personal hunch for the last couple of years, after watching us throw away games in creative & soul-crushing ways, is that Burrow is our Peyton Manning and Zac is our Jim Mora. And we're not winning anything else as long as Zac is running things.

 

Zac is a high-character guy. By all accounts, a truly decent guy. And as a lifelong Cornhuskers fan, there's nobody that wants to see Zac succeed more than I do. But my personal feeling is that Burrow isn't going back to any Super Bowls as long as Zac is the HC, and that we need to find our Tony Dungy.

 

I hope I am wrong, and I will root for Zac to win every single time these guys take the field. But my hope for success under Zac just feels forlorn.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Jamie_B said:

For those that want to play with it the only Playoff Predictor I have seen that is currently available. (and not behind a paywall)

 

Free NFL Playoff Predictor 2024-2025

 

Sweet! We can still get the #1 seed! LOL (tho the odds of that happening are probably about the same as those of me being the next person to walk on the moon)

Posted
Just now, KA14_HOF said:

 

Sweet! We can still get the #1 seed! LOL (tho the odds of that happening are probably about the same as those of me being the next person to walk on the moon)

 

:lol:

 

I have us getting the 6 or 7, as I don't think we win out, but if we do and a few other things drop the way I think they could the 5 isnt completely out of the question.

 

6 or 7 the way I ran things likely means in Buffalo or another matchup in Baltimore

 

If we somehow do manage to win out and get the 5, we would likely go to Houston 

Posted
12 hours ago, sois said:

I'm back in, Bowl time

 

After Thursday nights game and the shitting play-calling, it was definitely bowl time.  

 

 

Posted
On 11/10/2024 at 5:35 PM, Randle P McMurphy said:

Saying this team has ANY easy wins is laughable!  They're playing a last place schedule and have 4 wins against teams with

a combined record of 9-29 and ALL 4 teams in last place!  Chargers defense has only given up 118 points compared to the

Bengals giving up 262.  Play the Stealers twice and they're 3-0 with Russell Wilson.  You can say the Stealers are averaging

only 23 PPG but with Wilson they are averaging a hair over 30 PPG.  Their pass rush against our OL I won't even mention.

Last time we played Dallas, Cooper Rush was starting and we lost that game.  Broncos have a formidable defense and the

Bengals track record against rookie QB's is bad.  Callahan knows the Bengals offense like the back of his hand and I wouldn't

be surprised if they play over their heads against their HC's old team.  And if it weren't for the Browns being down to their

3rd string QB and a fluke 100 yard KO return by Jones that game could have gone either way!  I'm semi, SEMI confident the

Bengals win 2 more, maybe 3 more games but the playoffs!?  

 

no it isnt. which games do you think they lose? if they are only winning 2 more.  as they dont face a single top 10 offense the remainder of the year, which has been the defenses issue in keeping teams in striking distance of getting wins.

 

On 11/10/2024 at 5:41 PM, KA14_HOF said:

We lost to the Patriots, so right off the bat it has to be said that we are fully capable of losing to anybody the rest of the way.

 

That being said, Burrow is locked in, as is Ja'Marr. This gives us a chance vs anybody. We just need the defense to have a pulse.

 

We can withstand 1 more loss the rest of the way. If we are going to make the playoffs, that loss can come either next Sunday vs the Chargers or in Week 18 in Pittsburgh. If we beat San Diego LA next week, they'll be the first good team we've beaten all year. It's hard to be overly optimistic about doing something we haven't done yet. But we are overdue to finally win one of these.

 

We HAVE to beat Pittsburgh at home. We lose that, and it's a wrap. I think Burrow can beat them. But Zac can also get out-coached by Tomlin. We can and should win in Dallas and Nashville, and then at home vs the CFT. If we're still alive by the time Denver rolls into town, I like us beating them too.

 

Beating Pittsburgh twice will be tough. If we cough up a hair ball vs the Chargers next week, Week 18 will do-or-die. If we beat the Chargers, I will be very optimistic that we can finish 10-7 and get into the tournament.

 

If we get healthier in the coming weeks, I like our chances all the more. But we are on such a razor's edge, that one more key injury, or if we don't get Tee back for Pittsburgh, we are toast, IMO.

 

honestly, if you just want generalize games as if they are all equal wins or losses you can make up whatever scenario you want. and have things to support it.

 

I really cant decide if people dont know what nfl footbal lreally is preperation wise or if they dont care and just want to say things that support an angle.

 

Not a dig at your or your thoughts what so ever.

 

but the Patritos loss is on Jamarr and Tee.

 

Look at burton, he made it through the ENTIRE WEEK, got ALL OF THE REPS. missed the verbal video walk through only, and got benched. JUST THE WALK THROUGH, he got 100% OF THE REPS AND THEY WERE GOOD REPS to keep the gameplan with him. literally missed sitting in shorts in a room and walking through the calls and line ups. thats it...

 

Jamarr chase got ZERO reps (give or take a day or so of half practicing in none gameplan week) no offseason work, was sitting out in shorts giving high fives

 

Tee higgins egets 100% REPS gameplan is heavy tee higgins, jamarr may not play, jamarr holds bengals hostage until the MORNING OF THE GAME, even after the walk through they dont know if he is going to play.

 

tee goes down after all the gameplan is in, and jamarr is in morning of. 

 

you have no chance of being successful in this case. new engalsn is a half a point per game in scoring against from being a top 10 defense, thats with one of the worst offenses in the league setting them up for failure.. 

 

they suck , but this is the NFL, your gameplan is FUCKED with no time to even pretend to fix it. you can do a last minute practice, the NFLPA would come shoot you in the head. youre toast. 

 

just look at the NEXT WEEK, with the SAME EXACT players available, no Tee and Jamarr is in,.. a week of practice, you score 250% as many points, on the road, against a top 5 scoring defense in the Chiefs, simply because you could put a gameplan in place that week with the players you actually had.. 

 

now i dont know what people think the nfl is like in game prep, but its what a billion dollar organization with a staff of 30+ people from oaching to scouts to data analysts etc all do all week, this isnt high school where you just call a skinny post and make it happen. 

 

same thing happens with no film. facing a QB with no film vs even 1 game of film, then 2 games worth, is completely different, look at andy dalton, balled out his first game.. everyone here was cumming all over themselves how good andy is..  how did that go for them after the film was out? the plays they have on deck, routes changes, timing changes. 

 

scout team offense runs the opponents offense in practice, scout team defense runs the opponents defense in practice, everything is a split second blade of grass calculation.

 

 so i cannot knock anything that happened in the patriot's game and put blame anywhere but on jamarr and Tee's availability. and i personally cannot use at as some proof of "we can lose to anyone" because thats just flat out not what happened.

 

i just feel like fans treat the nfl like its pop warner and you just grit out a win if youre the more talented team. and everything done on that field is prepared rehearsed and planned for weeks or months ahead of time, boiled down to relevant and pinpointed in practice reps for that weeks gameplan. and nothing else can go in the game.

 

as proof, taylors talks about Polalck coming to him on that chase brown TD run vs the giants i think, and sais he said the line is good on that from the previous gameplan reps, if they wanna run it the guys are 100% on it, as it was off the game sheet due to it not being repped in practice that week. so they ran it. A RUN PLAY. the only thing that matters is blocking angles and the gap to hit.. and things that "simple" if not repped to perfection in practice, are off the table.

 

and we are gonna sit here and act like the bengals farted in their own mouth week 1 and the entire passing attack wasnt just gang raped by jamarr and tee?!?!?!

 

what are we doing here?

 

 

 

On 11/10/2024 at 7:02 PM, Bleeds Orange said:

 

I hate be the one to do this, but someone has to....

 

Jim Mora Playoffs GIF

 

i dunno being one game out of a playoff spot with 2 od the teams ahead of you on the schedule isnt really that far fetched.

 

especially if you remove the self pity and generalized emotional lumbering. 

 

On 11/10/2024 at 7:22 PM, T-Dub said:

 

 

IDK man this is some pretty forgiving math.   If they did this or that other thing then sure, they'd be undefeated, right?  Feel like we've been running through these same scenarios for weeks now, trying to convince ourselves that they're still in it as the losses have piled up.  Does this look like a playoff team to you?

 

For the defense to collapse they'd have to stand up first.  Nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe they're going 6-1 or even 5-2.  A split seems more realistic and I'm not even terribly confident in saying that much.

 

really this is just copy and paste blubbering and catch phrases, the defense has held teams to 16, 7, 14, then a gang more under the league average 24 or 25 ppg last i looked.

 

no one is saying they are going to shut down the ravens or bills or whatever, but the defense hasnt just been a consistent give up 35 points per game clusterfuck, its been top offenses getting going and banging them hard. 

 

if the bengals scored 26 points each game every game, theyd be 6-4 right now, and had they palyed the titans, chargers, an bbrowns twice already this year instead of the eagles, commanders, and ravens twice, we would probably be 7-3 and everyone talking about the #1 seed not knowing some dumptruck losses we ahead.

 

On 11/10/2024 at 7:51 PM, Jamie_B said:

I really don't think we lose to the Cowboys, as much as we have issues, that team is Raiders level of bad.

 

they are fucking terrible. if we have a healthy roster and a solid week long prep and gameplan, id expect a victory as well.

 

On 11/10/2024 at 10:51 PM, Shebengal said:

You are perfectly right to show this. If nothing else, this team has shown a glaring propensity to play to the level of their opponents, and with Zach Taylor’s boneheaded calls, lose a lot of those games. 

 

we are the 6th best scoring offense in the league, thats with the 10 point game 1 in the books as well.

 

about 25 teams wish they had a bonehead like taylor.

 

On 11/11/2024 at 12:10 AM, sois said:

I'm back in, Bowl time

 

bowl of cheerios

 

On 11/11/2024 at 4:07 AM, BlackJesus said:

IMG_20241111_120447.jpg

 

dan orlovsky with the hot takes that the 7/8/9 teams are in he nunt and the 3-7 teams with bad palyers are NOT in the hunt..

 

 

 

On 11/11/2024 at 5:14 AM, Randle P McMurphy said:

 

4 plays away from being 1-9 as well!  

 

this isnt true. with 3 double digit wins out of the 4, youd ahve to be pretty creative to work that math. "no see instead of a touchdown pass joe throws a 99 yard pick 6"

 

nailed it.

 

On 11/11/2024 at 8:36 AM, KA14_HOF said:

 

Famous as this gif is, it's funny for me personally that you post something with Jim Mora in it. Reason being...

 

I fully understand that I'm not qualified to call for any coach to be fired. I could tell you if the painter you hired was competent or not. And I could probably identify who on your IT team should be replaced. But every one of our coaches has probably forgotten more about football than I'll ever know.

 

So I'm not saying that anybody needs to go. But my personal hunch for the last couple of years, after watching us throw away games in creative & soul-crushing ways, is that Burrow is our Peyton Manning and Zac is our Jim Mora. And we're not winning anything else as long as Zac is running things.

 

Zac is a high-character guy. By all accounts, a truly decent guy. And as a lifelong Cornhuskers fan, there's nobody that wants to see Zac succeed more than I do. But my personal feeling is that Burrow isn't going back to any Super Bowls as long as Zac is the HC, and that we need to find our Tony Dungy.

 

I hope I am wrong, and I will root for Zac to win every single time these guys take the field. But my hope for success under Zac just feels forlorn.

 

i dunno Mora is 0-6 in the playoffs and zach taylor is 5-2. and Manning still didnt get to a SB until his 9th season.

 

im not personally able to connect many dots here. not to mention mora was a defensive coach and Taylor is an offense coach. 

 

im not actually able to connect a single dot here.

 

On 11/11/2024 at 12:36 PM, KA14_HOF said:

 

Sweet! We can still get the #1 seed! LOL (tho the odds of that happening are probably about the same as those of me being the next person to walk on the moon)

 

how many plane crashes does it take to get the #1 seed? 6?

 

On 11/11/2024 at 12:49 PM, gupps said:

 

After Thursday nights game and the shitting play-calling, it was definitely bowl time.  

 

 

 

the 34 points on the road on a short week shitty play calling?

 

you know the 2pt play was to jamarr across the back of the endzone, right? he was open.. but joe was getting hit. play calls and play results arent the same thing.

 

we will also ignore joe getting hit in the face, geisecki being held, jamarr being held and still getting open, and its just shitty playcalling 

 

it must be nice to just void the worlds realities and have opinions that you fully believe because you just want to. 

 

"i dont want to understand anything, there are no realities, i just want to be made and point a finger at someone"

 

why?

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1
Posted
2 hours ago, GoBengals said:

i dunno being one game out of a playoff spot with 2 od the teams ahead of you on the schedule isnt really that far fetched.

 

especially if you remove the self pity and generalized emotional lumbering. 

 

No, sorry for the misunderstanding. I didn't post the Jim Mora clip because I doubt their chances of making the playoffs. I posted it in response to the comment from @Randle P McMurphy where he said:

 

Quote

Bengals win 2 more, maybe 3 more games but the playoffs!?  

 

When I read the "but the playoffs?" part, I heard it in Jim Mora's voice, and assumed others might, as well. If so, somebody had to bear the responsibility of posting Jim Mora, so I did it. :D  My attempt at humor got lost in translation because I worded it poorly.

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