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Economics Thread

Featured Replies

  • Author
9 hours ago, T-Dub said:

Why would Moody's do this?!  It must be part of the Woke Trans Agenda.  They're evil libs.

 

Don't they know Trump's uncle went to MIT?

 

https://www.newsweek.com/moodys-us-credit-rating-negative-2073510

 

I might be conflating something but I could have sworn we got downgraded during the housing crisis with the agencies stating Congress' inability to work together was a problem.

5 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

 

I might be conflating something but I could have sworn we got downgraded during the housing crisis with the agencies stating Congress' inability to work together was a problem.

 

This sounds familiar but I thought it was more of an "if" speculation before the bailouts.

 

If only we knew then the President could just lie about it and blame China and Chicanos. "We've got the greatest economy America have ever seen! Biggest and Strongest in the world! My PP very large!" And people would  buy it.

 

Would've saved us a lot of money!

 

  • Author

I knew I remember this right. This was the first time Moody's has downgraded us, not the first time we've ever been downgraded by the big 3.

 

In August 2011, S&P downgraded the long-held triple-A rating of US securities.[1] On August 1, 2023, Fitch downgraded its credit-rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+, as S&P had twelve years earlier, leaving only Moody's to still assign its highest rating to the country's debt.[10]

10 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

I knew I remember this right. This was the first time Moody's has downgraded us, not the first time we've ever been downgraded by the big 3.

 

In August 2011, S&P downgraded the long-held triple-A rating of US securities.[1] On August 1, 2023, Fitch downgraded its credit-rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+, as S&P had twelve years earlier, leaving only Moody's to still assign its highest rating to the country's debt.[10]

 

 

Considering just about everyone that's been contracted by a Trump business or invested money with him (other than bribes/money laundering schemes) has had to sue him...

  • 2 weeks later...

How many more flips of the on-again, off-again tariff switch do we think there are left before investors globally decide the US economy is in the hands of incompetent & petty morons? I assume we're going to see that money being moved anywhere but the US & then the dollar is going to really crater. I know places that rely on a tourist season are already starting to feel it. Turns out shutting down the National Parks & creating a police state atmosphere entirely hostile to foreigners is bad for tourism & foreign investment!

Or am I wrong to think all this flip-flopping from our Toddler in Chief has a point of no return?

Dollar Index is down about 10% since January if I'm not mistaken?

The President of the United States is shilling for wankpanzers and trashcoin crypto, I think it's safe to assume faith in the US economy will continue to suffer for as long as he's tolerated.

17 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

Ah yes, that brilliant plan. Turn America into a 3rd world country so we can reclaim the honor of manufacturing Nike sneakers in sweatshops full of toddlers earning $3 a day.

Makes total sense, I mean our unemployment rate post-COVID was the lowest its been in decades so obviously we need to tank the economy for the sake of more shit-paying, dangerous, unskilled manual labor jobs.

Republican policy is all about braindead solutions for imaginary problems that also happen to make billionaires richer.

  • Author
38 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

Ah yes, that brilliant plan. Turn America into a 3rd world country so we can reclaim the honor of manufacturing Nike sneakers in sweatshops full of toddlers earning $3 a day.

Makes total sense, I mean our unemployment rate post-COVID was the lowest its been in decades so obviously we need to tank the economy for the sake of more shit-paying, dangerous, unskilled manual labor jobs.

Republican policy is all about braindead solutions for imaginary problems that also happen to make billionaires richer.

We're at a somewhat scarry time, the CEO of Anthropic the company that makes the Claude AI model, is saying that AI is going to eliminate half of entry level white collar jobs in the very near future and we could be staring down a 10-20% unemployment rate. To his credit he is in favor of taxing AI companies and redistrubing that wealth into the social contract. But a 10-20% unemployment rate is going to make alot of people wearing red hats socialists. 😂

The crossroads on that is do that 10-20% go into blue collar fields? Does that push the wages up for blue collar workers or does their work also get automated? I saw a video of a factory in China that was fully automated, not one worker. They call them "Dark Factories" (because you dont need lights). The American Oligarchs have been pretty open about their desire to eliminate the cost of labor, I see no reason why they wouldnt look into our own dark factories.

The next 10-20 years could be really amazing with the good AI can do, but it there is some real potential for it to be very ugly too.

4 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

We're at a somewhat scarry time, the CEO of Anthropic the company that makes the Claude AI model, is saying that AI is going to eliminate half of entry level white collar jobs in the very near future and we could be staring down a 10-20% unemployment rate. To his credit he is in favor of taxing AI companies and redistrubing that wealth into the social contract. But a 10-20% unemployment rate is going to make alot of people wearing red hats socialists. 😂

The crossroads on that is do that 10-20% go into blue collar fields? Does that push the wages up for blue collar workers or does their work also get automated? I saw a video of a factory in China that was fully automated, not one worker. They call them "Dark Factories" (because you dont need lights). The American Oligarchs have been pretty open about their desire to eliminate the cost of labor, I see no reason why they wouldnt look into our own dark factories.

The next 10-20 years could be really amazing with the good AI can do, but it there is some real potential for it to be very ugly too.

I think "AI" is a grift right now. I doubt our energy grid could support the scale of implementation that's currently being pitched to investors. Not saying it'll never happen but for the moment it's the new cool buzzword, like Virtual/Augmented Reality a few years ago. Unscrupulous people are way, way overselling it.

34 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

I think "AI" is a grift right now. I doubt our energy grid could support the scale of implementation that's currently being pitched to investors. Not saying it'll never happen but for the moment it's the new cool buzzword, like Virtual/Augmented Reality a few years ago. Unscrupulous people are way, way overselling it.

You don’t know the half of it. Sam Altman is a pathological liar, charlatan, and fraud, and OpenAI is a financially infeasible boondoggle.

If you want to read some exceptionally well-researched and crafted takedowns of Altman, OpenAI, and the AI industry in general, read Ed Zitron’s articles on it: https://www.wheresyoured.at/

16 hours ago, T-Dub said:

& then the dollar is going to really crater.

I kind of hope so*. I'm still paying off student loans, but I earn Euros for a living.

* I don't hope for y'all to suffer.

16 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

We're at a somewhat scarry time, the CEO of Anthropic the company that makes the Claude AI model, is saying that AI is going to eliminate half of entry level white collar jobs in the very near future and we could be staring down a 10-20% unemployment rate. To his credit he is in favor of taxing AI companies and redistrubing that wealth into the social contract. But a 10-20% unemployment rate is going to make alot of people wearing red hats socialists. 😂

The crossroads on that is do that 10-20% go into blue collar fields? Does that push the wages up for blue collar workers or does their work also get automated? I saw a video of a factory in China that was fully automated, not one worker. They call them "Dark Factories" (because you dont need lights). The American Oligarchs have been pretty open about their desire to eliminate the cost of labor, I see no reason why they wouldnt look into our own dark factories.

The next 10-20 years could be really amazing with the good AI can do, but it there is some real potential for it to be very ugly too.

I get industry emails from time to time about how AI will affect our industry. I don’t bother reading them because I’m getting close to retirement and it’s not going to really affect me. But even if it was to be used to, for example, analyze title searches for issues, a human underwriter would still need to decide on risk. I know one of my younger colleagues uses Chat GPT to compose emails, but I couldn’t see doing that.

  • Author
3 hours ago, Shebengal said:

I get industry emails from time to time about how AI will affect our industry. I don’t bother reading them because I’m getting close to retirement and it’s not going to really affect me. But even if it was to be used to, for example, analyze title searches for issues, a human underwriter would still need to decide on risk. I know one of my younger colleagues uses Chat GPT to compose emails, but I couldn’t see doing that.

For things that are pretty routine AI can do that stuff right now. For things that need context and understanding, it still needs a human.

  • Author
21 hours ago, Elflocko said:

You don’t know the half of it. Sam Altman is a pathological liar, charlatan, and fraud, and OpenAI is a financially infeasible boondoggle.

If you want to read some exceptionally well-researched and crafted takedowns of Altman, OpenAI, and the AI industry in general, read Ed Zitron’s articles on it: https://www.wheresyoured.at/

Haha I went to a recruiting event for them, they are building this.

https://openai.com/global-affairs/introducing-chatgpt-gov/

  • Author

As someone who works for Big Tech in the government sector and teaches how to use Microsoft CoPilot to students as part of my mentor volunteer work I do. My feelings on AI are very mixed. Like anything, it is a tool that in the right hands, has potential for some very cool advances that we are seeing, especially in the medical field, and on the flip side, incredibly scary stuff.

Microsoft is sponsoring my alma mater's hackathon, and I'm helping to put together a panel to chat on AI. The university just started a new master's program in AI and we're working on getting the head of the department to speak. Personally, I am considering very seriously a second master's degree in it in order to stay relevant. I still got 15 years before I can retire and in this field, as fast as it changes, that is a lifetime.

3 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

I took their food listened to what they had to say about what they were doing and left

🤜🤛

On 6/1/2025 at 7:01 AM, Jamie_B said:

My feelings on AI are very mixed

These are just some of the funny ones.

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  • Author

Spent some time with CoPilot and some code I have from a volunteer thing I did with some kids from the University of MD over the weekend (me not them). Here is where my concerns lie. It takes initiative in areas where I specifically give it very clear instructions to not do things, it wasn't a case of me not being a good prompter (which can be a thing sometimes) it did something I very clearly told it not to do. That's all well and good for a volunteer codebase, it's an easy rollback and fix, but if we are talking about using this stuff to build serious things it's just not ready yet imo. On the flip side of that I saw a thing that one of the AI doubters changed his mind on when it found a zero-day security issue.

The thing I am finding is that you have to be extremely specific in what you want, and the English language is such that a machine trying to understand, let alone take initiative on things can be troublesome.

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