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Posted

Every spring I try to predict whether the Bengals are playing overseas or not, and what the matchups might be.  I try to apply logic - thinking that the league was serious when it said divisional games would be avoided and that they would favor non-conference opponents, specifically the new 17th game opponent that each team faces.  Every year I guess, and every year I get it wrong.


Who cares.... here are my predictions.

 

[NFL has announced the following teams will "host" internationally in 2024: CFT, NYJ and JAX in London (Jags at Wembley), IND in Berlin, LAC in Brazil, MIA in Madrid and PIT in Dublin. Also, LAR have been confirmed in 2025 for Melbourne, Australia.]

 

London (three games):
Titans at Current Browns (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
Broncos at Jets (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
Seahawks at Jaguars (Wembley Stadium)

 

Berlin: Cardinals at Colts
Brazil: Texans at Chargers
Madrid: Bengals at Dolphins
Dublin: Bills at Stealers

 

My assumptions:

  1. No team will host a team that's already hosting a game (this avoids having any team play TWO international games.  JAX does this sometimes, because they always host a London game, but this year the only opponent on their schedule that they have to play as the visitor against who is also hosting an international game is IND, and that game is in Berlin)
  2. No division games (except possibly if JAX is hosting)
  3. No opponent who played internationally last year (CAR CHI GBP MIN NEP NYG NYJ PHI) or next year (LAR).  JAX is of course excluded
  4. Three finalists will be those who have not played internationally the longest.
  5. Opponent will be one of the three finalists, with preference to 17th game or non-conference opponent.  If tied, then the team who would face the shortest travel distance to the host city.

 

By those rules:

  • CFT could play SFF TEN or BUF.  I exclude SFF because of the DeBartolo rule.... 49ers HQ was in Youngstown OH and they only play in CFT every 8 years, so that's a "local" rivalry.... just as BUF/CFT is "local", leaving TEN as CFT's only opponent.
  • NYJ could play DAL ATL or DEN.  DAL only plays NYJ every 8 years and  (like PIT and LVR) they have a huge national bandwagon. Removing a high-revenue once-every-8-year opportunity like that is unlikely, as the owners would never allow that to happen, so remove DAL.  ATL played in London in 2023, Broncos in 2022, so DEN is the opponent here.
  • LAC could play only WAS or HOU in Brazil.  HOU is much closer to the venue than WAS, so HOU is the team.
  • JAX could host SEA HOU or KCC. We've sent HOU to Brazil, leaving SEA and KCC.  KCC played in Frankfurt in 2023, SEA played in Munich in 2022.  SEA is the team.
  • IND could host ARI SFF or LVR.  All three are west-based teams and the game is in Munich, so it's equally inconvenient for them all. We remove LVR due to them being in the same conference, and with both ARI and SFF having last played internationally in 2022 (against each other in Mexico - yuck), I pick ARI because they've only had two such games while SFF has had three.  ARI is the opponent.
  • MIA could host WAS NOS or CIN in Madrid.  Logic says the 17th oppoent (WAS) an NFC opponent (WAS or NOS) or the team who has not played internationally the longest (WAS).  So clearly it won't be WAS.  NOS played in London in 2022, CIN played in London in 2019... so CIN is the opponent. (And I need to go)
  • PIT could host SEA or BUF in Dublin.  That's it.  All the rest either already have international games (CLE MIA IND), are division opponents (BAL CIN), or played overseas last year (GBP MIN).  I should remove BUF for to the same proximity reason I used to eliminate them as an opponent for CLE, and SEA hasn't played internationally since 2022 (Munich) while BUF played in 2023 (London).  But my guts say that the NFL would send BUF to play the Rooneys in Rooneyland, knowing how that would favor PIT in the AFC tiebreaking scheme if they win.  So BUF is the opponent.

 

I haven't been to Spain for a while. Might be fun.

Posted

BTW, if you want to play along at home, here's the list of designated 2024 home teams, and their full slate of 2024 home opponents:

 

 

CFT: (BAL CIN PIT) [BUF MIA TEN] GBP MIN *SFF  (game at Tottenham Hotspurs)

NYJ: (BUF MIA NEP) [CFT PIT DEN] ATL CAR *DAL  (game at Tottenham Hotspurs)

JAX: (HOU IND TEN) [KCC LAC NYJ] LAR SEA *CAR   (game at Wembley)

IND: (HOU JAX TEN) [DEN LVR MIA] ARI SFF *ATL   (game in Berlin)

LAC: (DEN KCC LVR) [HOU IND PIT] PHI WAS *MIN   (game in Brazil)

MIA: (BUF NEP NYJ) [BAL CIN LAC] NOS TBB *WAS   (game in Madrid)

PIT: (BAL CIN CFT) [BUF MIA IND] GBP MIN *SEA   (game in Dublin)

 

Legend:

(Division Opponents)

[Conference Opponents]

*17th Game Opponent

 

And here's the rundown of all 32 teams, the # of international games they've played to-date, and the year of the most recent such game:

 

ARI    2    2022
ATL    3    2023
BAL    2    2023
BUF    2    2023
CAR    2    2024
CHI    3    2024
CIN    2    2019
CFT    1    2017
DAL    1    2014
DEN    2    2022
DET    2    2015
GBP    2    2024
HOU    2    2019
IND    2    2023
JAX    13    2024
KCC    3    2023
LAC    3    2019
LAR    4    2019
LVR    5    2019
MIA    6    2023
MIN    4    2024
NEP    5    2024
NOS    3    2022
NYG    4    2024
NYJ    3    2024
PHI    2    2024
PIT    1    2013
SEA    2    2022
SFF    3    2022
TBB    4    2022
TEN    2    2023
WAS    1    2016

  • Upvote 1
Posted

If we get an international game it's because of "fashion week" Joe Burrow, who has become a global brand and is fairly well known in Europe now more than most QBs.

 

I hope the Bengals get Madrid not only for tactical reasons (makes an away game neutral), but also because I think Cincinnati as a city deserves international recognition. Despite living in over 15 countries, I've still never found a place with its same je ne saus quoi. 

  • Upvote 2
Posted
54 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

Playing in Pittsburgh and Baltimore is like playing in a Third World Country.

 

If you're judging what qualifies as "first world"  by the usual metrics I've got some bad news...

Posted
1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Someone on the Lebatard Show who is plugged in to the Dolphins heard/predicted the Bengals will be the opponent in Spain.  

There have been rumblings for at least a month that this would be the Spain matchup. This game is like a not-so-well-kept secret.

Posted

I don't come on here very often and I have never met anyone on here except maybe three people that I know of or remember but, one of my son's was born in Torrejon Spain and I lived in Madrid Spain for 4 years.  I believe HSH may have met him at Training Camp one year .  I have not been to a game in a very long time but, if the Bengals get the game there, then I might seriously have to think about going to the game just to revisit my past from 37 years ago. 33 years ago when I left. 

  • Upvote 6
Posted
Quote

MIA could host WAS NOS or CIN in Madrid. Logic says the 17th opponent (WAS) an NFC opponent (WAS or NOS) or the team who has not played internationally the longest (WAS). So clearly it won't be WAS. 

 

Apparently the NFL did a double-reverse mega bluff no take-backsies bluff, because it looks like WAS is going to Madrid.... Which aligns with logic, which logically the NFL wasn't therefore gonna do... which in Bizarro World means that OF COURSE they'd send WAS to Madrid.

 

Screenshot_20250509_081813_X.jpg

  • Upvote 1
Posted
55 minutes ago, AmishBengalFan said:

MIA could host WAS NOS or CIN in Madrid. Logic says the 17th opponent (WAS) an NFC opponent (WAS or NOS) or the team who has not played internationally the longest (WAS). So clearly it won't be WAS. 

 

Apparently the NFL did a double-reverse mega bluff no take-backsies bluff, because it looks like WAS is going to Madrid.... Which aligns with logic, which logically the NFL wasn't therefore gonna do... which in Bizarro World means that OF COURSE they'd send WAS to Madrid.

 

Screenshot_20250509_081813_X.jpg

The bright side is it saves any of us who were considering going a big chunk of cash.

  • Upvote 1
Posted
15 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

The bright side is it saves any of us who were considering going a big chunk of cash.

 

TBH - I just want to go one last time before Europe completes its descent into chaos.  I was happy that we couldn't go to London or Germany, and I have no interest in Brazil or Mexico (shudder), but Spain isn't lost yet and I was kinda hoping to have an excuse to see Madrid.

 

Quelle dommage.

 

Oh well.... maybe next year in Melbourne.....

  • Upvote 4
Posted

ff we want to look ahead to 2026:

 

Recent International Host Teams:

2022: NOS GBP ARI TBB +JAX

2023: BUF TEN KCC NEP +JAX

2024: MIN CHI CAR PHI +JAX

2025: CLE NYJ IND LAC MIA PIT +JAX

2026 (confirmed): LAR in Melbourne

 

Ignoring JAX, the pattern is NFC in even years, AFC in odd.  So 2026 should be an NFC hosting year. This also tracks as NFC is the designated host for all 17th games in 2026.

 

Last Trip, arranged by NFC Division (regardless of host/visitor status):

EAST: DAL 2014 PHI 2024 NYG 2024 WAS 2025

CENT: DET 2015 GBP 2022 MIN 2024 CHI 2024

SOUTH: NOS 2022 TBB 2022 ATL 2023 CAR 2024

WEST: ARI 2022 SFF 2022 SEA 2022 LAR 2026

 

Underlined teams were designated as HOST teams last time they played internationally.

 

I believe the following teams, IN THIS ORDER, are the most likely to be tapped to host a game next year.  This is based on (1) number of years since last trip, then (2) fewer total international games played.  Teams that were designated home teams anytime in the past 4 years are excluded:

 

1. DAL (Last=2014) (Unless Jerry has a contractural 'out' with the league)

2. DET (2015)

3. SEA (2022, 2 trips)

4. SFF (2022, 3)

5. ATL (2023)

6. NYG (2024)

 

WAS is going this year, LAR is already going next year, everybody else has already lost a home game recently.  If they're forced to add a team not on this list, it'll almost certainly be one of the 2022 host teams... NOS GBP ARI TBB.

 

I am expecting NFL to play 6 international games next year: Australia, London (x3), Dublin and Paris.  Melbourne and two in London are already confirmed. The number or places may change, but let's go with this for now.  One of those games will be JAX at Wembley, so 5 of the 6 NFC teams listed above are likely to join them.

 

Wondering which teams have marketing agreements with the countries in question?


Australia: LVR LAR PHI SEA

UK: BAL CHI GBP JAX KCC MIA MIN NYJ SFF

Ireland: GBP JAX KCC NYJ PIT

France: NOS

BOLD = Team from my list that has an agreement with that country.

ITALIC = Team from the "if they're forced to add a team" group.

 

So, my initnal guess for teams hosting games in 2026 would be:


Melbourne: LAR

London: JAX SFF +1

Dublin: ??
Paris: NOS

 

Gotta add teams to fill-in London and Dublin. I'll just take the first two off my list, DAL and DET. Neither have marketing agreements, so I'll put them where more of their opponents have one.  DAL in London, DET in Dublin, giving us:

 

Melbourne: LAR (likely against SEA)

London: JAX SFF DAL

Dublin: DET (likely against GBP)
Paris: NOS


Our ROAD schedule in 2026 will be:

(BAL CFT PIT) [HOU IND +1] ATL CAR

 

So unless one of these teams is a HOST team internationally, we won't be going overseas to play them. I think the only one of these that could go would be ATL. The only other likely-international team - JAX - is already on the 2026 schedule to come here.


Or, to put it more succinctly.... we're unlikely to go anywhere in 2026.

Posted

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/05/13/commanders-dolphins-madrid-nfl-international-games/

 

Quote

The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Kansas City Chiefs at Corinthians Arena in São Paulo on Friday, Sept. 5, the day after the league’s season opener. The Minnesota Vikings will play in consecutive European games as the visiting team, first against the Pittsburgh Stealers at Dublin’s Croke Park on Sept. 28 (Week 4), then against the Cleveland Browns at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Oct. 5 (Week 5). The New York Jets will host the Denver Broncos at Tottenham the following week (Oct. 12), and the Jacksonville Jaguars will close the London series against the Los Angeles Rams at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 19 (Week 7). Then in on Nov. 9 (Week 10), the Indianapolis Colts will host the Atlanta Falcons at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. The Commanders-Dolphins Week 11 matchup will be the final international game.

 

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