Story by John Sheeran

The floor for the Cincinnati Bengals' offense is set for this year. Cincinnati was seventh in EPA/play, sixth in success rate, sixth in points per game, ninth in yards per game, and ninth in yards per play in 2024. Expectations are for the unit to be even better in 2025. 

Their own fumbles bouncing differently can play into that.

Only one other team lost more fumbles than the 13 lost by the Bengals last season. The Dallas Cowboys' 14 lost fumbles were more than any other team in the entire NFL.  

It's precisely why ESPN's Mina Kimes has optimism for Cincinnati to be even better on this side of the ball.

Bengals should experience fumble regression in a positive way this year

Kimes placed the Bengals' offense fourth in her league-wide rankings last week on her podcast, The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny. Her last bullet point of evidence was a reminder that Cincinnati lost more fumbles than most NFL clubs, and that stat is unlikely to repeat itself the following year.

"One more thing for the Bengals that made me have them fourth, in a positive way, [they] gave up a lot fumbles last year, 29th-league wide," Kimes said. "And fumbles lost, that tends to not be a sticky stat. So it's something to look at as something where the luck is likely to turn and that could help the offense."

The Bengals were technically tied for 29th as two other teams, the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders, also had 13 fumbles lost.

Kimes mentioned fumbles lost is not typically a "stick stat," meaning that it doesn't normally carry over into the next year. Fumble recoveries—not just straight up fumbles—are often a random outcome and a team that loses a lot of fumbles one year has a decent chance of experiencing better luck the next season.

Coincidentally, Cincinnati experienced the exact opposite of this last year.

The 2023 Bengals were the luckiest team in football in terms of fumbles lost with just two. No other team had fewer than five. The New York Jets lost a league-most 18 fumbles that season and only lost eight in 2024. 

Going from first to essentially last doesn't always happen, but Cincinnati doesn't need to go back to the top of the chart in order to experience offensive improvement. Cutting that 13 down to seven or six could be the difference in another win or two by season's end. 

The seesaw leans one way, then back the other way. It's time for the Bengals to experience some good luck to keep their offensive engine humming along.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/espn-analyst-identifies-how-the-bengals-offense-should-improve-thanks-to-something-largely-outside-of-their-control/ar-AA1HlLR3?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=916339386dc845c7abb90ba8bcf9f1a5&ei=83

man its so wild to me how the media behaves.

the lack of any real effort, and what they think effort is.

this is a random stat, the take is 100% legit and accurate, but all of the things that would make the bengals automatically improve as a team for things that lost us games, this is the one we get an ESPN/MSN/whatever level article for?

not the kicking was off due to holder and snapper timing issues?

not the defense having key players miss 70+ games?

but.... we prolly will fumble less....

1 hour ago, GoBengals said:

man its so wild to me how the media behaves.

the lack of any real effort, and what they think effort is.

this is a random stat, the take is 100% legit and accurate, but all of the things that would make the bengals automatically improve as a team for things that lost us games, this is the one we get an ESPN/MSN/whatever level article for?

not the kicking was off due to holder and snapper timing issues?

not the defense having key players miss 70+ games?

but.... we prolly will fumble less....

The only concern I have for the offense is protecting the QB. That would include being able to run the ball.

As long as Joe's on the field this season will go as far as the defense can hold up.

36 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

The only concern I have for the offense is protecting the QB. That would include being able to run the ball.

As long as Joe's on the field this season will go as far as the defense can hold up.

I can never decide how much i care about the run game, in regards to it being a problem, its not 2005, running the ball to open the pass game is a lot less of a situation, bengals averaged 4.1 ypc last season.

lack of running was due to being behind constantly vs not being able to run, there are maybe 2-3 teams with a focused run game, unless you have a top 2-3 back in the nfl its not like you are itching for a 50/50 split like back in the day.

philly obviously is run heavy. one of the most dynamic backs in history.

but your run heavy teams are either those with a top 3 back or a terrible qb, OR a qb who runs often to alter the percentages. then the variables of a young QB when burrow is gonna throw on 3rd and 3, bo nix may be running the ball on that scenario.

bengals, browns, jets, giants, chicago raiders all in top 10 passing percentage of snaps. all were behind all the time.

so that probably evens out with an improvement on the defensive end.

5 minutes ago, GoBengals said:

I can never decide how much i care about the run game, in regards to it being a problem, its not 2005, running the ball to open the pass game is a lot less of a situation, bengals averaged 4.1 ypc last season.

lack of running was due to being behind constantly vs not being able to run, there are maybe 2-3 teams with a focused run game, unless you have a top 2-3 back in the nfl its not like you are itching for a 50/50 split like back in the day.

philly obviously is run heavy. one of the most dynamic backs in history.

but your run heavy teams are either those with a top 3 back or a terrible qb, OR a qb who runs often to alter the percentages. then the variables of a young QB when burrow is gonna throw on 3rd and 3, bo nix may be running the ball on that scenario.

bengals, browns, jets, giants, chicago raiders all in top 10 passing percentage of snaps. all were behind all the time.

so that probably evens out with an improvement on the defensive end.

IIRC they've been around 80+% passing with Burrow. Nudge that closer to 70% and I suspect he'd be getting hit a lot less often.

I know the stats average out to look like a respectable enough running game, but when facing a late 3rd and short to protect a lead they don't seem to trust it very much. I'd like to see them turn to Brown or whoever as a sort of closer in those situations.

I wouldn't expect anything like "run heavy" with this offense, or even want that. Feed Chase, Higgins, or whoever they free up all day. Just a tick closer to balance to get the bullseye off Joe's back.

5 hours ago, T-Dub said:

IIRC they've been around 80+% passing with Burrow. Nudge that closer to 70% and I suspect he'd be getting hit a lot less often.

I know the stats average out to look like a respectable enough running game, but when facing a late 3rd and short to protect a lead they don't seem to trust it very much. I'd like to see them turn to Brown or whoever as a sort of closer in those situations.

I wouldn't expect anything like "run heavy" with this offense, or even want that. Feed Chase, Higgins, or whoever they free up all day. Just a tick closer to balance to get the bullseye off Joe's back.

only 1 team was even over 65% last year..

54 minutes ago, GoBengals said:

only 1 team was even over 65% last year..

Maybe it was situational or just BS.

Still the 2nd most pass-happy offense. I'd call that room for improvement?

4 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

Maybe it was situational or just BS.

Still the 2nd most pass-happy offense. I'd call that room for improvement?

for sure, stop being behind every game all game. that rate would drop quite a bit for sure.

1 hour ago, GoBengals said:

for sure, stop being behind every game all game. that rate would drop quite a bit for sure.

That would indeed be an improvement. Holding opponents to 30 would get it done most weeks, which is not a hell of a lot to ask of a defense.

I'd like to see a better running game. It would make the offense more versatile and harder to stop. 3rd and 2 is usually a passing down for the Bengals but if we could run better, we'd convert at a higher rate. But we couldn't run because our interior offensive line are bad at run blocking. Karras at least was good at pass blocking, Volson and Cappa not so much.

If we had a good running game, as our 80s Super Bowl teams did, we'd have an elite offense. We could close out games with a 4th quarter lead. We could play in windy or wet conditions. We'd be less predictable and put more stress on opposing defenses. Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason were NFL MVPs on teams with good running games. Maybe that would work for Joe Burrow too.

Some Xweets from Warren Sharp about how Burrow is superman considering his O-line.

I think most fans are well aware, though some may not admit it. Without Burrow this is a 5-12 team.

2 hours ago, T-Dub said:

I think most fans are well aware, though some may not admit it. Without Burrow this is a 5-12 team.

I think most NFL fans are trained to think that QB value can only be measured by playoff appearances and especially Super Bowl rings. Stats don't matter, injuries don't matter, front offices don't matter, coaching staffs don't matter, supporting casts don't matter...only playoffs and Super Bowl rings matter. Everything else? Just empty excuses to protect your overrated QB.