56 minutes ago, SF2 said:

Trade down for more picks? How does that work?

Duke wouldn't know. He refused the trade down in 2023 when the Titans, Falcons, and Raiders were all trying to get into the end of round 1 to take Will Levis. Instead he took Myles Murphy. Then last year the Texans were trying to move up from 25 and we stuck and took Stewart. If we'd traded down, we wouldn't know in advance who we'd get but had a good chance of getting a quality DE, LB, or safety. As it turned out we could have had Jihaad Campbell, Carson Schwesinger, Malaki Starks, Nick Emmanwori, James Pearce, Mike Green, or Donovan Ezeiruaku among others plus whatever Houston paid to move up.

My view is that we should sign some solid, if unexciting vets in free agency and draft the BPA on defense. If we get a shot at Downs or Reece, don't trade down, take them. We could have paid less for Teair Tart, Poona Ford, Jarran Reed, or Calais Campbell last year than we paid for Hill, Ossai, and Slaton and have a better defense.

1 minute ago, sparky151 said:

Duke wouldn't know. He refused the trade down in 2023 when the Titans, Falcons, and Raiders were all trying to get into the end of round 1 to take Will Levis. Instead he took Myles Murphy.

Ain't no way Duke Tobin made that decision on his own. I agree he needs to go, been saying it for quite awhile, but I also recognize they're most likely going to replace him with another Duke Tobin. When they have multiple assistant GMs but no one with the actual title of GM it's pretty obvious they're more concerned with avoiding the blame game than getting results.

The Brown/Blackburns hire people to take the flack for them. Grandpa left them an NFL team and win or lose, they get to live like kings. They can draft busts every single year and their status won't change, so why should they care? If things get bad enough to where people stop showing up and they're in danger of losing money, they can always fire a couple of people and hire some new lackeys.

6 hours ago, T-Dub said:

Ain't no way Duke Tobin made that decision on his own. I agree he needs to go, been saying it for quite awhile, but I also recognize they're most likely going to replace him with another Duke Tobin. When they have multiple assistant GMs but no one with the actual title of GM it's pretty obvious they're more concerned with avoiding the blame game than getting results.

The Brown/Blackburns hire people to take the flack for them. Grandpa left them an NFL team and win or lose, they get to live like kings. They can draft busts every single year and their status won't change, so why should they care? If things get bad enough to where people stop showing up and they're in danger of losing money, they can always fire a couple of people and hire some new lackeys.

If Duke gets the boot (and I’d still be very surprised if so), I’d be willing to bet big $ that the replacement is also currently at Paycor offices… likely Trey Brown, or Potts or the pro personnel guy… forget his name, former UCLA player. That’s just how they operate.

As much as the fact that the current isht defense they have and poor history of getting quality OL falls most on Duke and crew, it wasn’t that long ago - less than 5 years - that Duke was NFL Exec of the Year. And for a 90+ year old owner who has spent his life nurturing (and at times, butchering) his team, that matters. Mike has gone on record re: the reasons he likes Duke… they trust him, he isn’t some grab the headlines guy, he fits their personality, etc.. They are circumspect to a fault, and they like continuity, even when it doesn’t seem warranted.

Until it hits them hard in the pocketbook (and with guys like Burrow, Chase, and Tee, they are definitely entertaining so people may continue to show up), change is unlikely, regardless of what fans clamor for. And while we don’t have to like it, they are the owners - and it’s called “the way it is.”

57 minutes ago, texbengal said:

(and with guys like Burrow, Chase, and Tee, they are definitely entertaining so people may continue to show up)

I think this is the plan. Lots of deep ball TDs and a "gameday experience".

Maybe we need to try and predict which draft mistake we will take with our first pick. Higher probability in guessing that then which seemingly good player we will pick.

I think Tobin is mostly taking the blame for this guy. They should both be fired, but that's only an option for one of them.

On 11/8/2025 at 3:44 PM, T-Dub said:

I think Tobin is mostly taking the blame for this guy. They should both be fired, but that's only an option for one of them.

Is that the VP of player personnel?

The Athletic gives Bengals a 32% chance of a top 5 pick and 82% chance of a top 10 pick.

4 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Is that the VP of player personnel?

That is the guest MC for a Pokemon tournament but also yes

stripehype.com

Key metrics that should drive Bengals bounce-back in 2026...

After using "blown block rate" to fix their O-line, will the Bengals target "missed tackle rate" to rebuild their defense in the 2026 NFL Draft?

We are in the middle of the regular season, but you can already tell that some teams and fanbases have already started taking a long look at next year’s draft-eligible quarterbacks. 

We’re looking at you, Cleveland Browns.

Fortunately for the Cincinnati Bengals, we do not expect them to target a QB early in the draft. However, they have surely begun their evaluations on other positions. 

Last year, the Bengals used their evaluations and the advanced stat of blown block rate to identify a critical need along the offensive line in the 2025 NFL draft. 

We should hope they do the same for the 2026 draft, using a different stat, but focusing on the defensive side of the ball this time. 

The advanced stat paying off for rookies

Coming out of the 2024 season, their starting guards were among the worst in the league in terms of blown block rate. They were also just overall bad.

The team cut starting left guard Cordell Volson’s salary and demoted him to the second string. They also moved on from right guard Alex Cappa, who, in the minds of Raiders fans, has continued his personal assault against his starting quarterback. 

In their place, they drafted Fairchild in the third round to anchor the left guard position from Day 1. 

In the fourth round, they drafted Jalen Rivers out of the University of Miami. Despite playing tackle in college, the Bengals wanted to see what they had in him all over the offensive line. During the preseason, they tried to fill both tackle spots and guard positions. He ended up being a better guard than tackle. 

Fairchild and Rivers have managed to hold off competition from healthy free agent additions, Lucas Patrick and Dalton Risner. 

Fairchild and Rivers were two of the best in the 2025 NFL draft class in the percentage of blown blocks category. Fairchild was third for guards, and Rivers was first for tackles. 

Even more impressive, Rivers had a perfect blown block rate in the rushing attack. 

Going back to the 2024 draft, the Bengals selected Amarius Mims with the 18th overall selection. He ranked third-best among tackles since 2023.

Next step is identifying advanced stat targeting defense

Look for Cincinnati‘s front office to attempt to duplicate the success that they are currently having with Mims and their offensive rookie class in next year’s draft, but this time on the defensive side. 

A couple of years ago, everyone in their mother fixated on perceived athleticism and RAS scores. This year, because of the deplorable performance on the defensive side of the ball in general, and their rookie draft class in particular, everyone is now focused on college production. 

Who knew you had to be good at football in college to expect to be good at football and the pro level? 

While people will focus on numbers, such as sacks, pressures, and tackles for loss, we should keep a close eye on which draft-eligible defenders rank lowest in missed tackle rates, as these players should have the scouts’ full attention.

However, as we now know all too well, even pressure rates must eventually turn into sack production for edge, rusher, and defensive tackles. For that to happen, there can’t be a player who misses many tackles or has run stop rates on the level of Shemar Stewart, as seen during his time at Texas A&M, which was even more concerning than his lack of past rush production. 

Or at least, it should have been.

And yet, somehow, he received an invitation to the NFL draft, which is a testament to the lack of scouting on the part of the entire NFL, not just the Bengals.

Advanced stats are a tool, not a panacea

For now, it is difficult to judge which hidden stat the personnel department will rely on to help them wisely choose defensive rookies to help turn around a historically bad defense, which is on pace to break the record for the most points allowed in a season. 

However, we will go out on the proverbial limb and say it will involve missed and total tackles.

No, it won’t be as simple as identifying one advanced statistic or physical trait when drafting good players. Ultimately, it should come down to what is on film, backed up by advanced metrics when available. 

With that said, identifying the blown block rate for offensive linemen in the draft and selecting two of the best in that category is working out this season for the Bengals and their much-improved, after being much-aligned, offensive line. 

Defensive prospects who excel at key stat

There are already numerous names circulating in the Bengalsphere as potential first-round targets. But those are sure to change multiple times before April. For example, just two weeks ago, Miami’s defensive end Rueben Bain was the best pass rusher since Lawrence Taylor. That noise has since quieted. 

Nevertheless, there are several players who excel at getting ballcarriers to the ground that Bengals fans can focus on. 

According to NFL Draft Buzz, new draft darling, Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, ranks as the third-best tackler among draft-eligible linebackers behind Georgia’s CJ Allen and Texas’ Anthony Hill Jr.

Current fascination, Ohio State's Caleb Downs, ranks as their best-tackling safety, followed by Texas’ Michael Taaffe. 

The best tackling defensive lineman, according to NFL Draft Buzz, is Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell. 

While we should all be proponents of the Bengals severing ties with whoever they talk to at College Station, if Howell ends up as the best option for the Bengals once the evaluation process is over, the PTSD of picks like Cedric Ogbuehi and Shemar Stewart should not prevent the front office from going in that direction. 

In case you were wondering, NFL Draft Buzz ranked Shemar Stewart their 93rd-best tackling defensive lineman. That 93rd ranking does not include linebackers, cornerbacks, or safeties from last year's class. 

That ranking is also generous for anyone who actually watched Cincinnati’s 2025 first-round pick play the sport of football. 

Draft season coming in as fast as Bengals missed tackles

Believe it or not, we are only a month out from the College Bowl season. If you’re tired of seeing mock drafts now, wait about four weeks when you won’t be able to avoid them like the plague. 

And before the so-called experts begin to throw lots of numbers and various statistics your way, some of them useful, others nonsensical, and have nothing to do with football, look at the draft-eligible defenders with a low miss tackle rate, among other productivity numbers. 

Those types of stats could be an excellent indicator of where the Bengals are looking to improve on defense. At the very least, it should be an indicator following this lackluster defensive effort this season. 

Identifying the missed tackle rates is a great metric to find when you’re trying to figure out which edge rusher, safety, and linebacker to target in your predictive mock drafts.

Way too early and I no none of these players or read anything about them but this mock was an experiment in smart trade downs - take volume to make up for the fact our drfat board is not accurate in terms of ranking (due to poor scouting).

No more Clemson defensive linemen!

4 hours ago, Le Tigre said:

No more Clemson defensive linemen!

& no more Aggies, please.

Let's start off with Caleb Downs or Arvell Reese. Need some quality on the defense, rather than simply more bodies.

21 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Let's start off with Caleb Downs or Arvell Reese. Need some quality on the defense, rather than simply more bodies.

Actually, we need an elite player or two PLUS some quality bodies. Bodies we have, some are brain dead already but we have bodies.

On 10/1/2025 at 7:34 PM, T-Dub said:

Or a true minor/development sort of league again. People would watch & it would give these borderline guys like Burton a place to kind of get their shit together.

It would also cut down on the top picks being millionaires before they ever hit the draft, though. Can't see the NFLPA signing off on it.

There is zero reason to play in a developmental league when you can make decent money surrounded by hot COEDS and being worshipped like a God in college. Burton had a year of eligibility left but another douche agent convinced him he was ready for the NFL.

Update...still picking 9th unfortunately

Top five pick now in play, especially with a rough few games coming up

We will have to search the draft boards for the next looming bust high pick. Gets harder in the top 5 if we make it there.

5 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

We will have to search the draft boards for the next looming bust high pick. Gets harder in the top 5 if we make it there.

Duke says "challenge accepted"

Even they can't ruin Caleb Downs?

12 minutes ago, tibor75 said:

Even they can't ruin Caleb Downs?

Here in Columbus, he's known as "coach Downs" because he knows what the offense is doing and gets the defense lined up correctly. In Cincinnati, he may get the defense lined up as the coach's wish, but that doesn't mean they'll be stopping plays at the rate OSU does. It also takes talent and Bengals don't have much.

11 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Here in Columbus, he's known as "coach Downs" because he knows what the offense is doing and gets the defense lined up correctly. In Cincinnati, he may get the defense lined up as the coach's wish, but that doesn't mean they'll be stopping plays at the rate OSU does. It also takes talent and Bengals don't have much.

Talent is around 90% being where you're supposed to be. The other 10% is making the play when it's in front of you.

12 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Here in Columbus, he's known as "coach Downs" because he knows what the offense is doing and gets the defense lined up correctly. In Cincinnati, he may get the defense lined up as the coach's wish, but that doesn't mean they'll be stopping plays at the rate OSU does. It also takes talent and Bengals don't have much.

I wonder how much of it is lack of ability and how much is coaching. Players know they can hang around here for years earning millions if they just show up and smile a lot.

Pretty much have to shoot someone to get cut from the Bengals. If it means eating more than a couple mil in dead cap they're safe no matter how bad they play. They can be rated the absolute worst at their position league-wide, by a large margin, & they're still going to be starting the next year.

21 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Here in Columbus, he's known as "coach Downs" because he knows what the offense is doing and gets the defense lined up correctly. In Cincinnati, he may get the defense lined up as the coach's wish, but that doesn't mean they'll be stopping plays at the rate OSU does. It also takes talent and Bengals don't have much.

The question is whether Jessie Bates in his prime would help a little or a lot?

I think a lot.

32 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Here in Columbus, he's known as "coach Downs" because he knows what the offense is doing and gets the defense lined up correctly. In Cincinnati, he may get the defense lined up as the coach's wish, but that doesn't mean they'll be stopping plays at the rate OSU does. It also takes talent and Bengals don't have much.

If you OSU fans start getting my hopes up that we can get this guy, I swear to god..... 😓