9 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

All should not be counted on as its tough to come back from an injury and be the same guy two years in a row. But it's also premature to call him washed, until we see it.

Read an article where he's running now

I don't know if he'll be a factor at all this coming year..

He's putting in the work though.

19 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

Read an article where he's running now

I don't know if he'll be a factor at all this coming year..

He's putting in the work though.

Oh I dont doubt his work ethic, it's just hard to be the same level of player when you are out two years in a row.

31 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

Oh I dont doubt his work ethic, it's just hard to be the same level of player when you are out two years in a row.

Agree...

they can just cut All, move on from dead weight. tey have cam grandy who can wear a jersey and sit out all season if needed...

49 minutes ago, GoBengals said:

they can just cut All, move on from dead weight. tey have cam grandy who can wear a jersey and sit out all season if needed...

When does the contract year start? He's due about $1.3M. Could bring him in to camp and see what happens, but after reading about the surgery drama, doctor-shopping, spinal fusion.. It sounded pretty damned sketchy. Shouldn't have drafted him in the first place but it would be good for them to get over the tendency to hang on to players like this one. They know they can't count on him, so what's he doing here? Good luck to him & let's keep it (ostensibly) focused on winning football.

39 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

When does the contract year start? He's due about $1.3M. Could bring him in to camp and see what happens, but after reading about the surgery drama, doctor-shopping, spinal fusion.. It sounded pretty damned sketchy. Shouldn't have drafted him in the first place but it would be good for them to get over the tendency to hang on to players like this one. They know they can't count on him, so what's he doing here? Good luck to him & let's keep it (ostensibly) focused on winning football.

taking a guy with first round talent in the 3rd-4th is probably the right move everytime, you could argue a 3rd round pick being a luxury pick, but a 4th+ certainly is, every pick is a stab in the dark fully at that point. in the third you probably have a 10% chance of getting anything but a role player(which is fine, you need those) in the 4th that is even lower. I think s player not being a fuck up as they get older and mature or not being a medical hazard, are likely better odds than the 5-10% chance of them being much in general.

Let me grab some real data:

• 13 of the 32 picks in the third round from 2020 are out of the league completely

• and one single player was the primary starter at their position for even 5 years, not 6,

• 5 players in the third round were starters for 4 of those 6 years.

• 18 of the players in the third round were NEVER a starter at their position.

• so 56% are never starters.

The fact that the above data is easily available is INCREDIBLE, and means there are more data and probability psychos like me out there.

I think its always important to value these picks and their outcome with some perspective.

I think your final point is accurate, if he doesnt blow his knee out, cool you got a guy who can play a role, he did, so let him finish rehab to avoid the injury settlement, and keep it moving.

I am not sure his abilities vs liabilities allow for him to be part of this team going forward.

Not that it matters now but would love to know where other teams had him ranked. I suspect he was off the board entirely for some of them.

That aside, consider who they didn't draft - Stover, Bortolini (Colts starting C), Tyrice Knight (backup LB in Seattle), Mason McCormick (starting G for Pittsburgh).. Each of them went a few picks later in the 4th. Not world-beaters maybe, but they're all contributing to their teams. Given where the Bengals were (are) sitting - why gamble on a TE? It's like taking the safe option doesn't let them feel like they're outsmarting everyone. Instead they got "dead weight" as you put it - that's poor drafting.

3 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

Not that it matters now but would love to know where other teams had him ranked. I suspect he was off the board entirely for some of them.

That aside, consider who they didn't draft - Stover, Bortolini (Colts starting C), Tyrice Knight (backup LB in Seattle), Mason McCormick (starting G for Pittsburgh).. Each of them went a few picks later in the 4th. Not world-beaters maybe, but they're all contributing to their teams. Given where the Bengals were (are) sitting - why gamble on a TE? It's like taking the safe option doesn't let them feel like they're outsmarting everyone. Instead they got "dead weight" as you put it - that's poor drafting.

without a doubt. every team has things that wipe a guy out. injuries are a big one.

some teams 100% had Mims off their board with only 8 starts in college as well. was it gruden who had the "i dont draft a guy in the first two rounds unless he had 35 starts in college" or something.

everyone has their thing.

i can 100% see the "injured in college doesnt bode will at the next level" and the "id rather try to develop a mediocre talent than cross my fingers for health" and also the "if this guy pans out he is the steal of the draft"

taking a lottory stab at a guys health or maturity is no better or worse that taking a special teams level guy hoping you can "coach him up" ya know?

about the only thing you could hope to guarantee from that area in the draft is a good enough athlete who can contribute on teams right away.

Third round is sort of a gray zone. If you're hoping to find a future starting QB or LT, then you have to be lucky and will miss more often than not. If you want a depth guy at WR or DE, you can find them. If you're looking for a starter at safety or LB or RB or IOL, then there are usually some available.

So the hit rate depends on what the team is looking for with their pick as much as the talent of the player selected.

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

Third round is sort of a gray zone. If you're hoping to find a future starting QB or LT, then you have to be lucky and will miss more often than not. If you want a depth guy at WR or DE, you can find them. If you're looking for a starter at safety or LB or RB or IOL, then there are usually some available.

So the hit rate depends on what the team is looking for with their pick as much as the talent of the player selected.

For this team, in their circumstances, I don't get taking the high-risk options in general. A pick like Stewart or Burton or All is the sound of their SB window slowly closing. They need immediate help & don't want to admit it. The "shows improvement" bullshit is the sound of hammers nailing it shut. Solid B-tier talent right now is better than a chance at A+ in some imagined future.

If they'd been in the playoffs the last couple of years with no glaring weaknesses - in that case sure, roll the dice.

But lucking in to Burrow means the Bengals front office is smart, just like Fredo Corleone. And as smart guys, they take calculated risks that sometimes don't work out due to unforseeable circumstances, ie "bad luck".