you all know me, im always wanting real information to set expectations, even tho on the fly anything can change, injuries, etc

So i started digging into the changes we have made so far and what those look like on paper.

I think its both fair and realistic to assume the rookies and young players who were able to settle in should start at LEAST where they finished last season, if not a slight improvement off the jump.

SO Knight not blitzing off the edge anymore, will allow him to better master and grow at his LB specific role, the team has said as much, with Stewert and Trey down they regrettably forced knight to rush off the edge and that was a mistake, but its what we had. Carter should just generally improve to a solid contributing role player who can occasionally make a play. Every roster needs these. Our new Wilson/Pratt type guy. just be solid for 6 years please.

Then the Dax Hills who seemed to finally settle into a role and performed at a high level in that role to finish the last half of the season.

So lets peak at the biggest upgrade span on the defense Geno Stone to Bryan Cook.

Cook was the best safety on the market in free agency, that said cook is a 7-7.5/10 safety. he is good, he isnt great.

Stone was roughly the worst safety in the sport, so going from bottom feeder to good, is a hell of an upgrade, i just dont want to overblow who Cook is as a player.

PFF Overall:

Stone: 54.3

Cook: 83.5

Coverage Grade:

Stone: 50.7

Cook: 84.3

Run Defense Grade:

Stone: 53.9

Cook: 80.1

Pass Rush Grade: (Neither player was really used in this way often, but fair is fair so here is the data)

Stone: 72.8

Cook: 58.3

Then add that you brought in a veteran who was a 2x Superbowl champion, has pride in being from Cincinnati and part of Ohio. those things bring their own value. Stone was given a tough break in Cincinnati, Lou used him against his skillset and then he was in a new system around youth and mistakes and other issues, so he was set to fail, and boy did he ever fail. I wouldnt be surprised if he plays much better in Buffalo, but he is who he is, an average-at-best safety

Summery: This is a huge addition, what does this move alone translate to in wins? how many first downs was stone responsible for? How many scores? 10? 15? 20? how many games did we lose by 1 score? you could tell me this move earns us a single win, you could argue this move secures us 3-5 wins based on last years shortcomings, and it would be hard to argue.

For the sake of post length, I will put the next comparison in the replies.

Lets move inside on the D-Line

Correct me if you feel differently, I think Allen will replace the snaps Jenkins was getting on passing downs, now Jenkins may be next to Allen, with Hill and Slaton on run downs, Hil or Jenkins and Allen on rush downs, depending how the draft goes its possible Allen + Murphy or Stewert are inside with Mafe and player X outside.. who knows... so the most logical comparison i could think was replacing Jenkins role with Allens new role. Thoughts?

PFF Overall Grade:

Jenkins: 53.3

Allen: 53.2

Pass Rush Grade:

Jenkins: 50

Allen: 64.9

Run Defense Grade:

Jenkins: 58.4

Allen: 45.4

Now really an exciting flash on paper, I think your expectation is Allen plays less snaps for you so he is fresher, and is in on pass rush only downs. I dont think we want Allen to play 809 snaps for us like he did for Minnesota, I think 400-500 snaps is more likely, and you are looking to improve his performance in pass rush to the 75-ish grade range being a specialist in that role, getting pressure in the middle to allow you edge guys to get home, instead of QB's stepping up out of harms way and making plays.

Summery: I dont think i correlate this move to specific wins, i think This gives our back end players the ability to make plays and our defense a chance to end drives and get off the field. Ensuring you arennt the weakest defense in third down series after series, week after week. I like the move, its a step up in personnel, but its not a game changer, you also add a veteran with good work ethic who is a pro bowl level guy in your locker room setting a bar for study, work ethic, and mindset of being a pro nfl interior lineman. A great move in terms of "how you build a successful defense".

Nest up we can shift outside to pass rush/edge/DE however you want to categorize the Move from Ossai to Mafe.

I think the roles here are very similar, where Ossai was used as a baseline for the "floor" of pass rush, and a good fit to the scheme is his versatility. I think Mafe continues the same or slight improvement in versatility however he is a jump is talent level at pass rush and playmaker.

What does the data tell us?

Overall Defensive Raing:

Ossai: 64.0

Mafe: 69.2

Pass Rush Grade:

Ossai: 62.4

Mafe: 68.7

Run Defense Grade:

Ossai: 70.7

Mafe: 65.1

I think this rating data support my expectation, Ossai was the utility knife guy, and Mafe is expected to walk on the field and elevate the pass rush and playmaking. Mafe Played 559 snaps, Ossai played 609. I think their usage will be similar, Mafe - Murphy - Allen - Stewert feels like the 4 man pass rush I expect to see. with Mafe on less rush downs than Ossai but its not like he isnt a capable usable versatile guy in that regard. Like Allen, I sort of expect them to use him to be a fresh fast pass rush threat to team up with the physical attributes of the younger pass rushers we have in Stewert and Murphy.

What does this mean in wins? Similar to allen its an improvement in talent, and a fine tune in roles to a smaller extent. Im not sure Mafe wins you a specific amount of games, but combined with Allen in helping end drives, make life harder on opposing offenses, i think a stalled drive vs an easy 3rd down conversion does turn into tangible wins for you as a team, Mafe isnt a caliber guy I can artibute to pure wins.

You got better as a defense, you got better in your pass rush, and you upgraded your pass rush talent.

Thoughts on what he means for the defense as a whole?

I am excited to revisit post draft, even if we ended up with Love in the first, I expect some guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds who can contribute to the defense. a LB addition and a DB addition or DL addition are likely. improve the rooms talent level. The beauty of the draft is you are often improving the skill on day one but also with a guy with upside replacing a guy without upside. so you get better week 1 and even better yet week 16. I think we learned that with what we saw from Knight, Carter, Battle, Dax from week 1-9 to weeks 9-18.

With the offense essentially just returning healthy(Joe), experienced(Fairchild, Mims), unless you add a Love or a WR in the top 3, the powerful offense is just returning to start off as a well oiled machine. So all the focus, as expected, is on the defense.

According to the PFF numbers Ossai->Mafe and Jenkins->Allen are basically side-grades.

I think Slaton remains a liability and not upgrading that position was a mistake. Same with the LB group.

Assuming one of the worst defenses the NFL has ever seen will be "better" is probably a safe assumption but that's a long way from them being any good.

I'm sure some of them will improve into at least average NFL starters. I am equally certain that a few of them simply suck. Their refusal to admit that and move on will cost them games.

They've once again put themselves in a position of expecting rookies to come in and save them. It hasn't worked. Expecting half a terrible defense to suddenly turn into great players isn't hopeful or optimistic, it's simply foolish.

The Bengals FO either exists in some Fantasyland bubble of group-think where no one dares tell the Emperor he's ass-out, or are simply full of shit and trying to sell a bad product. IDK whether they truly believe it's all going to magically work out or just get paid enough to pretend, but I'm not buying it.

My bold prediction is the defense will be noticeably better but still pretty bad & continue to manage to lose them games.

I do expect them to be better. How much better? Not sure.

I think they’ll be ranked in the low 20s, not the top half. They have made some upgrades - I think Mafe is one, and Cook. Allen, meh. Not sold on that one.

But they didn’t do enough in FA. Guys like Chenal, Ellis and Odigizuhwa were there for taking and they didn’t pull the trigger on any. Maddening.

But it’s a long off-season and who knows what else is coming. I’m sure they will address the D via days 1-2 a few times in the draft, but the coaching staff hasn’t shown they can take a rookie and make him productive from the jump.

And even for guys like Murphy, Hill, and Turner - yes, some progress shown but are we to assume that we will see continued progression? I’m not convinced, as they don’t have a long history of achievement.

3 hours ago, GoBengals said:

I am excited to revisit post draft, even if we ended up with Love in the first, I expect some guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds who can contribute to the defense. a LB addition and a DB addition or DL addition are likely. improve the rooms talent level. The beauty of the draft is you are often improving the skill on day one but also with a guy with upside replacing a guy without upside. so you get better week 1 and even better yet week 16. I think we learned that with what we saw from Knight, Carter, Battle, Dax from week 1-9 to weeks 9-18.

With the offense essentially just returning healthy(Joe), experienced(Fairchild, Mims), unless you add a Love or a WR in the top 3, the powerful offense is just returning to start off as a well oiled machine. So all the focus, as expected, is on the defense.

Not sure why we should think draft additions in the middle rounds will help the defense? They have not in the last two years. Blind squirrel approach I suppose.

5 minutes ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Not sure why we should think draft additions in the middle rounds will help the defense? They have not in the last two years. Blind squirrel approach I suppose.

They landed Geno Atkins that way 15 years ago & decided that was a strategy rather than a once-in-a-generation jackpot.

Replacing Geno Stone should be a huge upgrade. They still need either a safety or CB to push Jalen Davis at slot. Being able to throw a real 3 safety look now and then would be great too.

This is one of the best drafts for linebackers. They should be able to upgrade from Carter with 1 of the first 3 picks maybe 4, so they don't have to force it if it's not there. Sure, it's a rookie but it should still be an upgrade. There will probably be some that are available after the draft too if teams "replace" someone on a 2nd contract.

I see Mafe as a replacement / upgrade from Ossai. Hendrickson isn't getting replaced immediately, the hope is that they get someone in the draft that helps replace his production. It's going to be platoon situation until a real dude emerges there.

IDL should have an improved rotation. I think the perfect kid in the draft for them was the DT from Oregon and he went back to school - so maybe next year. I don't love the options there this draft, but maybe they can pull something out of their ass in the draft or afterwards.

The only offensive upgrades I see them grabbing in the draft are TE, WR3, and O-Line depth - maybe RB. Should be a heavy defensive draft again but it's strong in positions they need (primarily LB and Safety) but those couple of offensive spots can be filled if they don't like the defensive options at their spots.

58 minutes ago, BBR said:

Replacing Geno Stone should be a huge upgrade. They still need either a safety or CB to push Jalen Davis at slot. Being able to throw a real 3 safety look now and then would be great too.

This is one of the best drafts for linebackers. They should be able to upgrade from Carter with 1 of the first 3 picks maybe 4, so they don't have to force it if it's not there. Sure, it's a rookie but it should still be an upgrade. There will probably be some that are available after the draft too if teams "replace" someone on a 2nd contract.

I see Mafe as a replacement / upgrade from Ossai. Hendrickson isn't getting replaced immediately, the hope is that they get someone in the draft that helps replace his production. It's going to be platoon situation until a real dude emerges there.

IDL should have an improved rotation. I think the perfect kid in the draft for them was the DT from Oregon and he went back to school - so maybe next year. I don't love the options there this draft, but maybe they can pull something out of their ass in the draft or afterwards.

The only offensive upgrades I see them grabbing in the draft are TE, WR3, and O-Line depth - maybe RB. Should be a heavy defensive draft again but it's strong in positions they need (primarily LB and Safety) but those couple of offensive spots can be filled if they don't like the defensive options at their spots.

Jalen Davis is about what you get in the slot unless you are targeting to have a great slot cover guy. which id give the other 4 DB's priority, but youre right, an upgrade there is very possible, but its not like its CTB at his worst lining up there. Jalen Davis was a 65 coverage guy. which is a hair above average.

looks like we agree on Mafe, and I dont think we are trying to replace hendrickson at this stage. having the one elite pass rusher (top 5) is tough, and seems more successful to have a really good pass rush by committee, Which i think our personnel is more geared towards being the plan unless they go grab Crosby.

I also agree on the draft strategy, it seems like Love will be gone top 5, but if not its a tough talent to pass on, and you also dont have to pay Brown, keeping a cheap rotation of RB's is the way of the league right now. anything on the offensive side is a luxury OR a guy who can do something else (special teams, returns, something)

cant believe the draft is still over a month away... going to be a long month.

1 hour ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Not sure why we should think draft additions in the middle rounds will help the defense? They have not in the last two years. Blind squirrel approach I suppose.

i guess you would just have to not be a narrow minded bafoon to see the entire league, including the bengals, have had some very good as well as league average starters from those rounds.

so thats why i would think that.... i guess... just sheer reality. a constant across the league and a constant across the bengals history..

honestly im not sure how you could just assume otherwise.

even just last year Knight and Carter finished off the season after getting settled in pretty well, especially being thrown into a shit show of scheme change, old player being thrown away mid season, even the veterans being new to the system etc... but if youre dead set on just pretending that didnt happen then there isnt really much i can say...

here is a list of non first round contributors:

knight

carter

Turner

battle

CTB had a run of survicability

Ossai

Sample

Wilson

ADG

Pratt

Bates

Hubbard

theres 12 guys just on defense in the last 8 drafts. just on defense..

2nd - third rounders proven to be worthless in that same time:

Burton

Malik Jefferson

Zach Carter i guess

obviously offensive players in there, and guys who havent produced or been written off yet (Jenkins and Jackson).

offensive players being Higgins, Fairchild, Carmen(worthless), Sample

so thats 11 contributors. 4 worthless players, and 2-3 guys where the decision isnt yet made on thier outcome.

but no sure lets act like its 100% failures...

if you just want to complain you can look at knights ratings and say he sucked.

if you wnt to be an adult and see how his rookie season progressed and how he developed over the year:

Missed Tackles:

First 8: 11

Last 9: 5

Run Defense:

First 8: zero games rated 60+

Last 9: 5 games rated over 60+

Overall Def Rate:

First 8: zero games rated over 60

Last 9: 4

and in the games at the end where they just stopped trying to use him to pressure off the edge were his best rated games of the season.

and it was pretty clear to everyone else at least that he and Carter players harder and smarte r and faster once they got settled in and Wilson got shipped off.

you 100% truly ust be trying to be negative to act like isnt a talented nfl player who should settle into being a contributing nfl starting level guy for years. which is much needed to build a good defense.

31/38 - passes completed against knight in the first 8. - 82% completion rate

17/26 in the last 8 - 65% completion rate.

2 games in the last 8 with 3+ completions against him., 8 games in the first 9 with 3+ passes completed against him. 3 games to 7 if yo split it before chicago instead.

that middle chicago game was poorly rated on most of the defense, so some guys started their upward play before it some right after it... with 17 games season there isnt a clean middle point.

if youre ignoring performance change from several players over months of game play, youre just doing so by choice.

24 minutes ago, GoBengals said:

31/38 - passes completed against knight in the first 8. - 82% completion rate

17/26 in the last 8 - 65% completion rate.

2 games in the last 8 with 3+ completions against him., 8 games in the first 9 with 3+ passes completed against him. 3 games to 7 if yo split it before chicago instead.

that middle chicago game was poorly rated on most of the defense, so some guys started their upward play before it some right after it... with 17 games season there isnt a clean middle point.

if youre ignoring performance change from several players over months of game play, youre just doing so by choice.

I've been saying from the rip that Knight can be great - if they give him time to develop & a decent-ish vet LB with a pro attitude to shadow. If you're ignoring that the team has done neither of those things, leading to him struggling all season (mightily, to his credit)... well. The drama with Wilson alone, WTF kind of message does that send? "yeah that guy you voted team captain? fuck him, he sucks, total asshole.. you're the starter now, go fix it." Be a real shame to ruin that dude letting him flail around like that for another year. ..and Stewart, wtf, realistically needed a year with the practice squad (i know) before appearing in an NFL game that counts. Who is his mentor, Munchies Murphy? Why do so many of these raw rookies seem like they're on their own program, and why do they keep drafting people like that?

Again, no one is saying some of last year's defense won't improve. It's that improving some of last year's defense won't get them to a SB. Don't run TJ Slaton out there again with the same group of LB's that just set records for suck and tell me they're "all in". It's insulting.

This is a deep LB and S class, I won't be shocked if we add one of each.

Somewhere, I saw a video where they were talking about how the 2 rookie linebackers were so confused that the opposing OCs just kept calling shit to pick on them every play. They were pretty much kept in a blender from the other teams. Plus having Stone behind them wasn't doing anyone any favors. Hopefully they get better LB play and thank god Stone is gone - this just was not a fit for him at all in any way. If that is all that happens, then they'll be much improved.

12 hours ago, GoBengals said:

Jalen Davis is about what you get in the slot unless you are targeting to have a great slot cover guy. which id give the other 4 DB's priority, but youre right, an upgrade there is very possible, but its not like its CTB at his worst lining up there. Jalen Davis was a 65 coverage guy. which is a hair above average.

looks like we agree on Mafe, and I dont think we are trying to replace hendrickson at this stage. having the one elite pass rusher (top 5) is tough, and seems more successful to have a really good pass rush by committee, Which i think our personnel is more geared towards being the plan unless they go grab Crosby.

I also agree on the draft strategy, it seems like Love will be gone top 5, but if not its a tough talent to pass on, and you also dont have to pay Brown, keeping a cheap rotation of RB's is the way of the league right now. anything on the offensive side is a luxury OR a guy who can do something else (special teams, returns, something)

cant believe the draft is still over a month away... going to be a long month.

i guess you would just have to not be a narrow minded bafoon to see the entire league, including the bengals, have had some very good as well as league average starters from those rounds.

so thats why i would think that.... i guess... just sheer reality. a constant across the league and a constant across the bengals history..

honestly im not sure how you could just assume otherwise.

even just last year Knight and Carter finished off the season after getting settled in pretty well, especially being thrown into a shit show of scheme change, old player being thrown away mid season, even the veterans being new to the system etc... but if youre dead set on just pretending that didnt happen then there isnt really much i can say...

here is a list of non first round contributors:

knight

carter

Turner

battle

CTB had a run of survicability

Ossai

Sample

Wilson

ADG

Pratt

Bates

Hubbard

theres 12 guys just on defense in the last 8 drafts. just on defense..

2nd - third rounders proven to be worthless in that same time:

Burton

Malik Jefferson

Zach Carter i guess

obviously offensive players in there, and guys who havent produced or been written off yet (Jenkins and Jackson).

offensive players being Higgins, Fairchild, Carmen(worthless), Sample

so thats 11 contributors. 4 worthless players, and 2-3 guys where the decision isnt yet made on thier outcome.

but no sure lets act like its 100% failures...

if you just want to complain you can look at knights ratings and say he sucked.

if you wnt to be an adult and see how his rookie season progressed and how he developed over the year:

Missed Tackles:

First 8: 11

Last 9: 5

Run Defense:

First 8: zero games rated 60+

Last 9: 5 games rated over 60+

Overall Def Rate:

First 8: zero games rated over 60

Last 9: 4

and in the games at the end where they just stopped trying to use him to pressure off the edge were his best rated games of the season.

and it was pretty clear to everyone else at least that he and Carter players harder and smarte r and faster once they got settled in and Wilson got shipped off.

you 100% truly ust be trying to be negative to act like isnt a talented nfl player who should settle into being a contributing nfl starting level guy for years. which is much needed to build a good defense.

Worst defense in the league for two years and full of draft picks. No one is saying good players are not found in later rounds and no one is saying the Bengals have not found a few.

The issue is they constantly rely on draft picks to contribute instead of building a solid roster and then having the draft picks compete and/or develop. So when the draft picks don’t work out it is a complete disaster.

Every year they underachieve at free agency, hope for June 1 cuts in the cheap and hope multiple draft picks can be instant good starters. It is failure waiting to happen.

Our drafting record does not support this model leading to success.

7 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Worst defense in the league for two years and full of draft picks. No one is saying good players are not found in later rounds and no one is saying the Bengals have not found a few.

The issue is they constantly rely on draft picks to contribute instead of building a solid roster and then having the draft picks compete and/or develop. So when the draft picks don’t work out it is a complete disaster.

Every year they underachieve at free agency, hope for June 1 cuts in the cheap and hope multiple draft picks can be instant good starters. It is failure waiting to happen.

Our drafting record does not support this model leading to success.

You have to believe! 🥷

11 hours ago, I_C_Deadpeople said:

Worst defense in the league for two years and full of draft picks. No one is saying good players are not found in later rounds and no one is saying the Bengals have not found a few.

The issue is they constantly rely on draft picks to contribute instead of building a solid roster and then having the draft picks compete and/or develop. So when the draft picks don’t work out it is a complete disaster.

Every year they underachieve at free agency, hope for June 1 cuts in the cheap and hope multiple draft picks can be instant good starters. It is failure waiting to happen.

Our drafting record does not support this model leading to success.

It only leads to success if the Bengals outdraft our opponents, who after all get their own draft picks. Duke's record isn't very good on that score, so relying on the draft is a losing strategy for Cincinnati. If the people making the draft decisions were professionals whose job security depended on doing the job well, then sure, why not? The Bengals would have as good of odds as any other randomly selected team. But the Bengals are structurally committed to the owner making the biggest decisions. The other teams with that model, Cleveland and Dallas, also haven't won a Super Bowl in the last 30 years. Teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks etc have owners who let the pros do their job. It's why teams like the Broncos or 49ers who have won Super Bowls during the time Mike Brown has owned the Bengals are more likely to win another than the Bengals are to win their first.

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

It only leads to success if the Bengals outdraft our opponents, who after all get their own draft picks. Duke's record isn't very good on that score, so relying on the draft is a losing strategy for Cincinnati. If the people making the draft decisions were professionals whose job security depended on doing the job well, then sure, why not? The Bengals would have as good of odds as any other randomly selected team. But the Bengals are structurally committed to the owner making the biggest decisions. The other teams with that model, Cleveland and Dallas, also haven't won a Super Bowl in the last 30 years. Teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks etc have owners who let the pros do their job. It's why teams like the Broncos or 49ers who have won Super Bowls during the time Mike Brown has owned the Bengals are more likely to win another than the Bengals are to win their first.

How many other owners are relying on the NFL as their only major source of income? Even with a $5B asset providing a millionaire luxury lifestyle for each generation becomes exponentially more expensive. There's no guarantee of a football season every year & it's a fixed income regardless. The mystery GM isn't managing a football team, he's managing customer expectations. The Bengals are a discount franchise happy with discount-tier results.

12 hours ago, sparky151 said:

It only leads to success if the Bengals outdraft our opponents, who after all get their own draft picks. Duke's record isn't very good on that score, so relying on the draft is a losing strategy for Cincinnati. If the people making the draft decisions were professionals whose job security depended on doing the job well, then sure, why not? The Bengals would have as good of odds as any other randomly selected team. But the Bengals are structurally committed to the owner making the biggest decisions. The other teams with that model, Cleveland and Dallas, also haven't won a Super Bowl in the last 30 years. Teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks etc have owners who let the pros do their job. It's why teams like the Broncos or 49ers who have won Super Bowls during the time Mike Brown has owned the Bengals are more likely to win another than the Bengals are to win their first.

The good news is Mike Brown has won several “Least Dead Cap Money” Bowls.

Seems relevant...a look at how some recent linebackers with significant rookie playing time have moved in PFF grade from year 1 to year 2

On 3/22/2026 at 7:21 PM, Jamie_B said:

This is a deep LB and S class, I won't be shocked if we add one of each.

yeah a third round safety would be a better value than a third round LB. but second round caliber linebackers are plentiful, the opposite of last year.. should be guys a hair better than knight at his same spot, or lower.. nothing drastic just a value bump... i havent dove into if any late first round guys may fall to early 2nd... that would be ideal... i just saw some breakdowns of those 2-4 round LB and S numbers and its a crowded area in the draft. if you could pull a first round talent LB in the second that would be huge.

On 3/22/2026 at 8:17 PM, BBR said:

Somewhere, I saw a video where they were talking about how the 2 rookie linebackers were so confused that the opposing OCs just kept calling shit to pick on them every play. They were pretty much kept in a blender from the other teams. Plus having Stone behind them wasn't doing anyone any favors. Hopefully they get better LB play and thank god Stone is gone - this just was not a fit for him at all in any way. If that is all that happens, then they'll be much improved.

I dont think there is any question the defense was confused as hell the first half of the season, however we were rarely getting blown out, so no coordinator on earth is just "fucking with" opposing players in 1-2 score games.

so wherever you heard that is a stupid assclown. this isnt a high school JV game up by 30 points. People will believe fucking anything.

1 hour ago, Griever said:

Seems relevant...a look at how some recent linebackers with significant rookie playing time have moved in PFF grade from year 1 to year 2

yeah this is cool data, it would be nice to have some perspective of their role changes too, did they take strengths and give them bigger roles in those moments? was the role the sale? i see some guys snaps were similar and some had 500+ more snaps and improved almost across the board. would love to see draft position with this data, i googled a few just to see, off the 4-5 i looked up seems 1st and 2nd round guys had better improvement changes than post 2nd round guys. I assume that post second round guys youre drafted more guys closer to their ceiling in some scenarios, thank you for posting this. this is the data i love.

He talks about that in his post... He didn't put a ton of effort into those comparisons beyond figuring out LBs that played a lot of snaps in their 1st and 2nd seasons. As he said, the data might point to a bit of "survival bias". Meaning that if they played well enough rookie year to play a lot of snaps in their 2nd year, then they were probably a better talent overall anyways. So he weeded out guys that played a lot year 1 but were benched because they sucked or were injured. The question is will Knight and Carter play a lot of snaps year 2 because they deserve to or because the team is forced to.

Small data set, doesn't say a lot other than there's a chance that Knight and Carter improve. I think it would be shocking if they didn't improve.

4 hours ago, BBR said:

He talks about that in his post... He didn't put a ton of effort into those comparisons beyond figuring out LBs that played a lot of snaps in their 1st and 2nd seasons. As he said, the data might point to a bit of "survival bias". Meaning that if they played well enough rookie year to play a lot of snaps in their 2nd year, then they were probably a better talent overall anyways. So he weeded out guys that played a lot year 1 but were benched because they sucked or were injured. The question is will Knight and Carter play a lot of snaps year 2 because they deserve to or because the team is forced to.

Small data set, doesn't say a lot other than there's a chance that Knight and Carter improve. I think it would be shocking if they didn't improve.

this is the type of football pondering and roster gymnastics my brain lives for. the nfl is a gigantic puzzle with custom pieces. this type of stuff is a gigantic part of where my love for sports stems from.

so many reasons for it, aside from a better talent perceived, necessary investment, year of adaptation, possible role changes at that level, even down to the division you are in, a guy who could cover in college mya be average or so in the NFL but in a division with a prime Andrews, friarmeuth and Njoku may be a worthless coverage LB. but in a division with trash TE weapons could be above average still.

the layers are endless in this sport.

6 hours ago, BBR said:

He talks about that in his post... He didn't put a ton of effort into those comparisons beyond figuring out LBs that played a lot of snaps in their 1st and 2nd seasons. As he said, the data might point to a bit of "survival bias". Meaning that if they played well enough rookie year to play a lot of snaps in their 2nd year, then they were probably a better talent overall anyways. So he weeded out guys that played a lot year 1 but were benched because they sucked or were injured. The question is will Knight and Carter play a lot of snaps year 2 because they deserve to or because the team is forced to.

Small data set, doesn't say a lot other than there's a chance that Knight and Carter improve. I think it would be shocking if they didn't improve.

I still have faith in Knight coming around. Carter.. not so much, he's never looked the part IMO. Limited 3rd down LB, maybe, but haven't seen anything yet. Knight at least looked like he belonged, athletically.

Remember what we said when we lost the first game 2 years ago to the Patriots who were seen as one of, if not the, worst teams in the NFL? What a different a year makes for the Patriots.. Same could be said about the Bengals in year two of Burrow.