SlantNGo

Part of it just positional. Billings is being rotated in for Sims at the 1-tech. We don't play a 1-tech much this year in the nickel, so the 1-tech DTs might get 20-30 snaps combined. Sims is probably good for about 20-25 snaps per game, so Billings only gets the remaining 5 or so. Glasgow is being rotated for Atkins at the 3-tech. We always have a 3-tech on the field (all ~60 snaps), and we always want Atkins in on 3rd down passing situations. Last year Atkins was in on about 80% of the snaps. If that hasn't changed, that ends up being about 45-50 snaps, so Glasgow gets 10-15 snaps every game just as the backup 3-tech. He hasn't looked bad at all in those snaps though. He played mostly 1-tech at Michigan, but he's currently undersized for a 1-tech in the NFL. I don't know if he's enough of a threat as a pass rusher to be a full-time 3-tech if Atkins is injured, but it's great to see him contributing right away. I don't think Billings has really "fallen behind" Glasgow. Really, Billings is competing with Sims for snaps. If Billings is doing well, he should be getting more snaps as the season goes on, and Sims probably won't be re-signed next year.

On a positive note, Nick Vigil is looking pretty sweet out there! He and Burfict make a nice tandem.

I didn't see any major mistakes by Ced. It seemed like we were on a platoon system. Smith - Fisher, Ced - Smith, Ced - Fisher, alternating every drive. I think Adam Jones and WJ III are alternating also, along with JR Redmond and TJ Johnson at RG. One sack was a clear miscommunication between Bodine and Redmond. Another was Fisher getting his ass whooped.

I saw Andre rotating with both Fisher at RT and Ogbuehi at LT throughout the game. I think it was just part of the game plan. Will Jackson III also seemed to be rotating with Adam Jones as part of the game plan. I don't remember Andre and Ogbuehi looking too bad. The worst I remember from Ogbuehi was a mental error failing to pick up Boling's man on a stunt which led to a free rusher on Dalton. On that same play, Fisher got his ass whooped so bad that his man sacked Dalton before the free rusher looping around on the stunt. Ahmad Brooks kicked Fisher's ass all day.

The most important thing from this article is "Another notable development on the day was Trey Hopkins working on the rehab field. Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury that was thought to be significant, perhaps season-ending." Hopkins has looked pretty solid in preseason and until he went down in week 1. If he can turn into a solid starter, then we've actually got at least a pretty good interior line to go along with two projects at tackle. I haven't given up hope on either Ogbuehi or Fisher--remember that it took Bodine 2.5 seasons as a terrible starter before he actually turned into a pretty good center.

Full article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-teaching-tape-cincinnati-bengals-and-the-rpo Most relevant snippet: We charted 1,321 instances of run-pass options a season ago – over five a game. No team gained more yards on them though than the Bengals’ 444, even though they only had the third most RPO attempts. Cincinnati averaged 6.2 yards per play on RPOs! Remember, this is all an extension of the running game and completely removed from any traditional dropback passing concepts. Even on just their rushing attempts, Cincinnati’s yards per attempt went from 3.9 yards per carry without the option look, to 4.6 yards per carry with it. Maybe the biggest advantage of all is that these are not risky plays. On 648 RPO pass attempts last year, only five were intercepted (Cincinnati had none) – a 0.77 percent turnover rate. The league-wide fumble rate was over double that at 1.6 percent.

Pittsburgh lost Kelvin Beachum to a big contract with option years that got voided. Same with Seattle and Russell Okung. Looks like the NFL is using the full contract and not just the years before the option so Pittsburgh gets a 3rd for Beachum, and Seattle gets another 3rd for Okung in addition to the 3rd for Bruce Irvin. https://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/

Last year Sims played 408 snaps (38%) on D, while Peko played 593 (55%). In 2013, Sims played 63% as a starter for Oakland, and in 2014, Sims played 38%. I imagine Peko's 55% would get split up 3 ways between Sims, Thompson, and Billings (or Marcus Hardison or potentially someone added via draft or FA). If they get split up equally, Sims goes up to 56%, while Thompson and Billings get 18% each. If Thompson is healthy or Billings looks good and can handle more, maybe Sims only goes up to 45-50%. I don't think it's outrageous.

I think this is a good start. When you factor in age and contract, I'd rank them in this order, where #1 needs to go the most: 1. Peko. His contract is over. He was paid $4.5 million per year (12th highest among 4-3 DTs) to stay in his gap in run D, and he was only marginally successful at that. Pat Sims was a starter in Oakland and can probably take most of the snaps that Peko took at nose roughly the same level of play and at a much cheaper $1.2 million. Hopefully some combination of Brandon Thompson ($840k), Andrew Billings, and Geno Atkins can fill in at under tackle on run downs so Atkins can stay fresh for 3rd down. 2. Dansby. His contract is over. His strength was supposed to be his coverage. We gave him some tough coverage assignments, so he probably wasn't as bad as he looked, but he's not the dominant player he used to be. Vigil was decent enough in coverage that he should probably be the second nickel backer. 3. Maualuga. He is being paid $5 million per year (13th highest among 4-3 MLBs), but it was front-loaded so that his cap hit was $7.2 million in 2015. He is under contract for one more year with a cap hit of $3.7 million, all of which we'd get back if we cut him. The main reason I rank him lower is that he's the only physical run-stopping linebacker we have besides Burfict, and I don't think we can count on Burfict to play 16 games a season. 4. Adam Jones. He is being paid $7.3 million per year (21st highest among CBs), which I think is a fair contract for a guy who plays up to his 2014-2015 level. His 2016 level was not as good, and I imagine he will continue to decline. His cap hit in 2017 is $8.2 million, and we get back $6.8 million if we cut him. His situation, of course, is highly dependent on his legal issues and what we do with Dre. 5. Michael Johnson. He is being paid $5 million per year (20th among 4-3 DEs), which is also probably a fair contract. His cap hit is $5.1 million, but he has more bonuses in his contract so we only get $2.9 million back if we cut him. I think we're better off hanging onto him but lowering his snap count. We should look in the draft for a pass rusher. Both Atkins and Dunlap played on only passing downs as rookies. Bodine looked competent over the second half of the season. If the Bengals believe he can continue to improve to be a good center, then I think he should be extended now with 1 year left on his contract to get more favorable terms. Ogbuehi probably backs up both tackle spots, if we bring back Whitworth, which I hope.

I am for signing Bodine to an extension. In the second half of the season, he went from absolute trash to looking like a competent starting center. Signing low-round rookies to an extension when they have 1 year left on their contract often gets you a discount because the player gets a raise sooner, and the team doesn't need to compete against other teams. You also have the benefit of spreading out the new money over 1 more year so that the cap charge in later years is lower. Basically it's what the Bengals did with Shawn Williams, making him the 25th highest paid safety in the league at $4.8 million/year. They structured his contract also so that if his performance is poor, they can cut him after 2 years. Currently Bodine makes about $700k/year. If they give him a raise to between $2.5-3 million/year, he'd be somewhere between the 15th and 20th highest paid center. If the staff thinks that he can be at least a competent (e.g. Michael Johnson-level) center for the next few years, then it probably makes sense to extend him early. Analysis of Shawn Williams' contract: http://overthecap.com/shawn-williams-contract-analytics/

Whitworth signed a year 1-year extension last year worth $9 million in new money. You think he's going to get less with how crazy the market is? http://overthecap.com/position/left-tackle/ His market value is probably $12 million. If we can get him to sign for between $10 and $11 million a year, I think that's a steal. Osemele is the outlier in the guard market. $10 million/year is what Zeitler is probably looking at, so I agree with Zeitler on 5 year/$50 million. Maybe something like 5 year/$51 million just for an agent to brag that the APY is higher at $10.2 million/year. I'm fine with Bodine returning as the starter. He wasn't Richie, but he looked Kyle Cook competent in the second half of the season. I'd even think about extending him on a deal that pays him $3 to $4 million per year 1 year before his contract expires like we did with Shawn Williams, with about 20% guaranteed so he can be cut after 2 years if he doesn't continue to improve.

OverTheCap is projecting two 4ths (for Jones and Sanu) and two 6ths (for Nelson and Andre Smith): http://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/#more-12905 Sanu is close to the 4th/5th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 4th. Nelson is close to the 5th/6th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 6th. In short, we're probably looking at a 4th for Jones, a 6th for Andre Smith, and either a 4th or 5th for Sanu, and either a 5th or 6th for Nelson. That's lots of picks to potentially improve an aging defense.

Actually Bodine has looked like a competent center for much of this year. He still has several WTF plays every game where he either gets knocked on his ass or run blocking 7 yards down field while everyone else is pass blocking on Dalton's INT in the Stealers game. But this year he has improved significantly. He's no Rich Braham, but he's about the level Kyle Cook was at, which is a massive improvement from his first two years where he was as bad as Ghiaciuc. Anyone know what Boling's injury is? Boling has looked like trash this year, which was really surprising since he was amazing last year. Has he been playing injured all year?

One thing that's gotten a lot less attention this year than the defensive struggles is how bad the special teams have been overall (currently #25), and not just Nugent. From 2011-2015, our ST units have been 12th or better in the league and usually around 7th (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst2011). The last time we had an ST unit this bad was 2010 (ranked #28). Anyways, if we look at the Bengals FG points above average (average calculated over all kickers for each kick distance), the results are: 2010: -7.4 (most of this poor performance should be attributed to the kicker we signed after Nugent went on IR) 2011: 5.9 2012: 5.9 (split between Nugent and Josh Brown) 2013: -1.5 2014: -2.6 2015: 1.5 2016: -7.9 Looks like an average kicker who had a pretty good 2011 and a worse than usual 2016. FG kickers seem to be struggling quite a bit this year, so there are more negative entries than usual (average is calculated over multiple seasons). Nugent is the 15th highest paid kicker in the league (http://overthecap.com/position/kicker/) so it seems the Bengals are paying for an average kicker and getting average kicker performance in response. If Nugent reverts to his usual form next year, then it shouldn't be a big deal, but if this gets into his head, and he keeps shaking XPs on a regular basis, I think we need to make a change.

Whitworth and Boling have improved quite a bit under his coaching, so I'm not sure that he's a bad coach, but maybe not the best talent evaluator. Whit is one case where Alexander has been right, and awesome technique wins. Ogbuehi is so smooth with his set that I have high hopes for him compared to Andre, who never seemed to master the technical side of the game.