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SlantNGo last won the day on July 9

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46 The F'n Man!

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  1. Full article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-teaching-tape-cincinnati-bengals-and-the-rpo Most relevant snippet: We charted 1,321 instances of run-pass options a season ago – over five a game. No team gained more yards on them though than the Bengals’ 444, even though they only had the third most RPO attempts. Cincinnati averaged 6.2 yards per play on RPOs! Remember, this is all an extension of the running game and completely removed from any traditional dropback passing concepts. Even on just their rushing attempts, Cincinnati’s yards per attempt went from 3.9 yards per carry without the option look, to 4.6 yards per carry with it. Maybe the biggest advantage of all is that these are not risky plays. On 648 RPO pass attempts last year, only five were intercepted (Cincinnati had none) – a 0.77 percent turnover rate. The league-wide fumble rate was over double that at 1.6 percent.
  2. Pittsburgh lost Kelvin Beachum to a big contract with option years that got voided. Same with Seattle and Russell Okung. Looks like the NFL is using the full contract and not just the years before the option so Pittsburgh gets a 3rd for Beachum, and Seattle gets another 3rd for Okung in addition to the 3rd for Bruce Irvin. https://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/
  3. Peko Coming Back???

    Last year Sims played 408 snaps (38%) on D, while Peko played 593 (55%). In 2013, Sims played 63% as a starter for Oakland, and in 2014, Sims played 38%. I imagine Peko's 55% would get split up 3 ways between Sims, Thompson, and Billings (or Marcus Hardison or potentially someone added via draft or FA). If they get split up equally, Sims goes up to 56%, while Thompson and Billings get 18% each. If Thompson is healthy or Billings looks good and can handle more, maybe Sims only goes up to 45-50%. I don't think it's outrageous.
  4. Peko Coming Back???

    I think this is a good start. When you factor in age and contract, I'd rank them in this order, where #1 needs to go the most: 1. Peko. His contract is over. He was paid $4.5 million per year (12th highest among 4-3 DTs) to stay in his gap in run D, and he was only marginally successful at that. Pat Sims was a starter in Oakland and can probably take most of the snaps that Peko took at nose roughly the same level of play and at a much cheaper $1.2 million. Hopefully some combination of Brandon Thompson ($840k), Andrew Billings, and Geno Atkins can fill in at under tackle on run downs so Atkins can stay fresh for 3rd down. 2. Dansby. His contract is over. His strength was supposed to be his coverage. We gave him some tough coverage assignments, so he probably wasn't as bad as he looked, but he's not the dominant player he used to be. Vigil was decent enough in coverage that he should probably be the second nickel backer. 3. Maualuga. He is being paid $5 million per year (13th highest among 4-3 MLBs), but it was front-loaded so that his cap hit was $7.2 million in 2015. He is under contract for one more year with a cap hit of $3.7 million, all of which we'd get back if we cut him. The main reason I rank him lower is that he's the only physical run-stopping linebacker we have besides Burfict, and I don't think we can count on Burfict to play 16 games a season. 4. Adam Jones. He is being paid $7.3 million per year (21st highest among CBs), which I think is a fair contract for a guy who plays up to his 2014-2015 level. His 2016 level was not as good, and I imagine he will continue to decline. His cap hit in 2017 is $8.2 million, and we get back $6.8 million if we cut him. His situation, of course, is highly dependent on his legal issues and what we do with Dre. 5. Michael Johnson. He is being paid $5 million per year (20th among 4-3 DEs), which is also probably a fair contract. His cap hit is $5.1 million, but he has more bonuses in his contract so we only get $2.9 million back if we cut him. I think we're better off hanging onto him but lowering his snap count. We should look in the draft for a pass rusher. Both Atkins and Dunlap played on only passing downs as rookies. Bodine looked competent over the second half of the season. If the Bengals believe he can continue to improve to be a good center, then I think he should be extended now with 1 year left on his contract to get more favorable terms. Ogbuehi probably backs up both tackle spots, if we bring back Whitworth, which I hope.
  5. Peko Coming Back???

    I am for signing Bodine to an extension. In the second half of the season, he went from absolute trash to looking like a competent starting center. Signing low-round rookies to an extension when they have 1 year left on their contract often gets you a discount because the player gets a raise sooner, and the team doesn't need to compete against other teams. You also have the benefit of spreading out the new money over 1 more year so that the cap charge in later years is lower. Basically it's what the Bengals did with Shawn Williams, making him the 25th highest paid safety in the league at $4.8 million/year. They structured his contract also so that if his performance is poor, they can cut him after 2 years. Currently Bodine makes about $700k/year. If they give him a raise to between $2.5-3 million/year, he'd be somewhere between the 15th and 20th highest paid center. If the staff thinks that he can be at least a competent (e.g. Michael Johnson-level) center for the next few years, then it probably makes sense to extend him early. Analysis of Shawn Williams' contract: http://overthecap.com/shawn-williams-contract-analytics/
  6. Offseason Needs C and G

    Whitworth signed a year 1-year extension last year worth $9 million in new money. You think he's going to get less with how crazy the market is? http://overthecap.com/position/left-tackle/ His market value is probably $12 million. If we can get him to sign for between $10 and $11 million a year, I think that's a steal. Osemele is the outlier in the guard market. $10 million/year is what Zeitler is probably looking at, so I agree with Zeitler on 5 year/$50 million. Maybe something like 5 year/$51 million just for an agent to brag that the APY is higher at $10.2 million/year. I'm fine with Bodine returning as the starter. He wasn't Richie, but he looked Kyle Cook competent in the second half of the season. I'd even think about extending him on a deal that pays him $3 to $4 million per year 1 year before his contract expires like we did with Shawn Williams, with about 20% guaranteed so he can be cut after 2 years if he doesn't continue to improve.
  7. 2017 Comp picks?

    OverTheCap is projecting two 4ths (for Jones and Sanu) and two 6ths (for Nelson and Andre Smith): http://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/#more-12905 Sanu is close to the 4th/5th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 4th. Nelson is close to the 5th/6th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 6th. In short, we're probably looking at a 4th for Jones, a 6th for Andre Smith, and either a 4th or 5th for Sanu, and either a 5th or 6th for Nelson. That's lots of picks to potentially improve an aging defense.
  8. Actually Bodine has looked like a competent center for much of this year. He still has several WTF plays every game where he either gets knocked on his ass or run blocking 7 yards down field while everyone else is pass blocking on Dalton's INT in the Stealers game. But this year he has improved significantly. He's no Rich Braham, but he's about the level Kyle Cook was at, which is a massive improvement from his first two years where he was as bad as Ghiaciuc. Anyone know what Boling's injury is? Boling has looked like trash this year, which was really surprising since he was amazing last year. Has he been playing injured all year?
  9. One thing that's gotten a lot less attention this year than the defensive struggles is how bad the special teams have been overall (currently #25), and not just Nugent. From 2011-2015, our ST units have been 12th or better in the league and usually around 7th (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst2011). The last time we had an ST unit this bad was 2010 (ranked #28). Anyways, if we look at the Bengals FG points above average (average calculated over all kickers for each kick distance), the results are: 2010: -7.4 (most of this poor performance should be attributed to the kicker we signed after Nugent went on IR) 2011: 5.9 2012: 5.9 (split between Nugent and Josh Brown) 2013: -1.5 2014: -2.6 2015: 1.5 2016: -7.9 Looks like an average kicker who had a pretty good 2011 and a worse than usual 2016. FG kickers seem to be struggling quite a bit this year, so there are more negative entries than usual (average is calculated over multiple seasons). Nugent is the 15th highest paid kicker in the league (http://overthecap.com/position/kicker/) so it seems the Bengals are paying for an average kicker and getting average kicker performance in response. If Nugent reverts to his usual form next year, then it shouldn't be a big deal, but if this gets into his head, and he keeps shaking XPs on a regular basis, I think we need to make a change.
  10. Bodine Jets Game

    Whitworth and Boling have improved quite a bit under his coaching, so I'm not sure that he's a bad coach, but maybe not the best talent evaluator. Whit is one case where Alexander has been right, and awesome technique wins. Ogbuehi is so smooth with his set that I have high hopes for him compared to Andre, who never seemed to master the technical side of the game.
  11. Bodine Jets Game

    Paul Alexander seems to have a preference for mediocre players who can dominate on some snaps while looking really bad on others as opposed to steady but just average players. Nate Livings was just like Bodine--dominant one second, and then "what the heck?" the next. I guess he thinks he can coach them up well enough to eliminate the bad whereas the steady but just average player has a much lower ceiling. Can't pin all the sacks on Bodine though. A few were coverage sacks, and I remember one where the left side of the Jets D-line ran a stunt. Ogbuehi picked up the interior lineman, which I think was correct, while Zeitler is completely unaware that the end is looping behind inside, and the end gets to Dalton. This is one weakness that Zeitler seems to get beaten by over and over, including the 2013 Texans playoff game. Actually I think a stunt leading to a sack screwed up him so bad in that game that he completely shit his pants and blocked nobody the next play, leading to a Dalton INT.
  12. I don't know how this Tate thing will end up, but if we want to place a player on IR and then recall him later in the season, that player must make the 53-man roster. We then place him on IR after week 1, and that opens up a roster spot. If we then sign Tate, he is not guaranteed his entire year's salary if we decide to cut him later. With several good candidates for IR-return, we will likely be signing a vet after Week 1 (not necessarily Tate back).
  13. Bengals Extend Gio Bernard

    Man I hope it's 3 new years, $15 million on top of the $1 million he's getting this year, i.e. 4 years, $16 million total. That sounds much more reasonable that 3 years, $15 million total, which would be 2 new years for $14 million. I really liked the Shawn Williams contract but this one is a bit harder to understand given how veteran running backs are paid peanuts these days.
  14. Looks like it was indeed a 4-year extension on top of this year, so we have him locked up for the next 5 years at $20.8 million: http://overthecap.com/shawn-williams-contract-analytics/#more-12045 Great deal for the Bengals, and an easy out if he sucks as a starter: less than $2M in dead money if he is cut at any point after this season. I don't like spending on two veteran safeties, but with Shawn Williams at $4.1M/year and George Iloka at $6.1M/year, we have both starting safeties for the next 5 years for the same price as Earl Thomas alone ($10M/year). Also note than Williams will still be making less than Nelson ($4.25M/year over 2 years, although he might get cut before the second year) and Mike Mitchell ($5M/year).
  15. Dansby is making peanuts ($1M base salary + $1M bonus = $2M total) but Freeney also made peanuts last year ($970k) so I don't imagine money is an issue unless Freeney is looking for more this year.

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