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SlantNGo last won the day on July 9

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47 The F'n Man!

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  1. Kirkpatrick on Marvin

    PFF hates Dre because of their grading system. They grade each play as either very bad, bad, neutral, good, or very good, and then add them all up and convert it into a numeric score from 0 to 100. Dre is a terrible tackler so he gets lots of bad and very bad grades for missing tackles. He also gets flagged a lot when he's beaten. For comparison, Football Outsiders has charting stats, and Dre has usually ranked quite highly there, especially against the deep ball. I'd say Dre is probably something like the 30th best corner in the league. Unfortunately, right now he's paid like the 15th best.
  2. Bengals and Browns tried...

    That might not be a bad strategy. Jacksonville has the best overall, best pass, and worst run defense in the league: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef Whereas we have the 26th best pass O and 27th best run O: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff Maybe the strategy should be to run as much as possible, and if we go 3 & out and punt, Bortles might just give us the ball back on their half of the field. I expect Huber will punt at least 5 times if not 7.
  3. Bengals and Browns tried...

    This rumor actually makes sense. The Bengals FO often lets other teams set the market, and then they move. This often works out in their favor, such as Dalton's contract, which basically had him as the lowest paid non-rookie starting QB until Glennon's contract with the Bears. The Pats set the market with a 2nd rounder for Garroppolo. Probably negotiations only got serious after that point. It's unfortunate--a 2nd and a 3rd given where the Browns will be picking is an absolute steal. Not as much of a steal as the Palmer trade was, but still an amazing deal.
  4. PFF weighs each play equally. For example, Muhsin Mohammad often ended up being one of their highest rated WRs because he dominated so much better than other WRs at run blocking. They have separate splits for run blocking and pass receiving for WRs, for example, but they usually just end up looking at the overall score. Dre has got to be one of the worst tackling starting CBs in the league, and CBs make tackles (5+ times a game) way more often than they deflect passes (maybe 1 or 2 a game). My main criticism of PFF is not in their play-by-play scoring, but their poor aggregation. They are well behind FBO in this regard. PFF's new scoring system (0 to 100) is even worse. I think they're just transforming the old grades into a scaled sigmoid function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function) so that they end up between 0 and 100.
  5. He was beaten badly a few times in the Bills game and committed PIs to save touchdowns. It's good that he's committing the PI to save the TD, but it would be better if he could avoid getting beaten so badly to begin with. I think the PIs are something we coach. Adam Jones and Dre both commit a lot of PIs in situations where they're badly beaten with no safety help. FBO and PFF are polar opposites on Dre. His FBO charting stats are awesome, but PFF rates him as a terrible corner (mostly due to his tackling I think). Again, I think WJIII has the highest potential of any corner we've draft since Leon Hall. He's probably outplaying both Adam Jones and Dre so far this year, and I'm happy to see him getting lots of snaps.
  6. WJIII has been awesome against the Packers and Stealers, but not so great against the Browns and Bills. He's up and down, but the highs are certainly very high, and higher than any corner we've had since Leon Hall. I think his play will probably lead us to decline the option on Adam Jones' 3rd year. I think Kirkpatrick has been struggling a bit this year. His tackling is normally awful, but it seems even worse this year. I wonder how much his injury is factoring in. He's Tory James v2. Not 3rd and Tory, but earlier career Tory who was physical in coverage and could jam receivers at the line really well. Dennard, on the other hand has looked really good, which is great to see because he sucked last year. His tackling is really solid too. If he can stay healthy and keep this up, he's a bargain for $8 million next year on his 5th year option.
  7. Part of it just positional. Billings is being rotated in for Sims at the 1-tech. We don't play a 1-tech much this year in the nickel, so the 1-tech DTs might get 20-30 snaps combined. Sims is probably good for about 20-25 snaps per game, so Billings only gets the remaining 5 or so. Glasgow is being rotated for Atkins at the 3-tech. We always have a 3-tech on the field (all ~60 snaps), and we always want Atkins in on 3rd down passing situations. Last year Atkins was in on about 80% of the snaps. If that hasn't changed, that ends up being about 45-50 snaps, so Glasgow gets 10-15 snaps every game just as the backup 3-tech. He hasn't looked bad at all in those snaps though. He played mostly 1-tech at Michigan, but he's currently undersized for a 1-tech in the NFL. I don't know if he's enough of a threat as a pass rusher to be a full-time 3-tech if Atkins is injured, but it's great to see him contributing right away. I don't think Billings has really "fallen behind" Glasgow. Really, Billings is competing with Sims for snaps. If Billings is doing well, he should be getting more snaps as the season goes on, and Sims probably won't be re-signed next year.
  8. On a positive note, Nick Vigil is looking pretty sweet out there! He and Burfict make a nice tandem.
  9. Dre vs. Ced

    I didn't see any major mistakes by Ced. It seemed like we were on a platoon system. Smith - Fisher, Ced - Smith, Ced - Fisher, alternating every drive. I think Adam Jones and WJ III are alternating also, along with JR Redmond and TJ Johnson at RG. One sack was a clear miscommunication between Bodine and Redmond. Another was Fisher getting his ass whooped.
  10. Andre Smith

    I saw Andre rotating with both Fisher at RT and Ogbuehi at LT throughout the game. I think it was just part of the game plan. Will Jackson III also seemed to be rotating with Adam Jones as part of the game plan. I don't remember Andre and Ogbuehi looking too bad. The worst I remember from Ogbuehi was a mental error failing to pick up Boling's man on a stunt which led to a free rusher on Dalton. On that same play, Fisher got his ass whooped so bad that his man sacked Dalton before the free rusher looping around on the stunt. Ahmad Brooks kicked Fisher's ass all day.
  11. The most important thing from this article is "Another notable development on the day was Trey Hopkins working on the rehab field. Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury that was thought to be significant, perhaps season-ending." Hopkins has looked pretty solid in preseason and until he went down in week 1. If he can turn into a solid starter, then we've actually got at least a pretty good interior line to go along with two projects at tackle. I haven't given up hope on either Ogbuehi or Fisher--remember that it took Bodine 2.5 seasons as a terrible starter before he actually turned into a pretty good center.
  12. Full article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-teaching-tape-cincinnati-bengals-and-the-rpo Most relevant snippet: We charted 1,321 instances of run-pass options a season ago – over five a game. No team gained more yards on them though than the Bengals’ 444, even though they only had the third most RPO attempts. Cincinnati averaged 6.2 yards per play on RPOs! Remember, this is all an extension of the running game and completely removed from any traditional dropback passing concepts. Even on just their rushing attempts, Cincinnati’s yards per attempt went from 3.9 yards per carry without the option look, to 4.6 yards per carry with it. Maybe the biggest advantage of all is that these are not risky plays. On 648 RPO pass attempts last year, only five were intercepted (Cincinnati had none) – a 0.77 percent turnover rate. The league-wide fumble rate was over double that at 1.6 percent.
  13. Pittsburgh lost Kelvin Beachum to a big contract with option years that got voided. Same with Seattle and Russell Okung. Looks like the NFL is using the full contract and not just the years before the option so Pittsburgh gets a 3rd for Beachum, and Seattle gets another 3rd for Okung in addition to the 3rd for Bruce Irvin. https://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/
  14. Peko Coming Back???

    Last year Sims played 408 snaps (38%) on D, while Peko played 593 (55%). In 2013, Sims played 63% as a starter for Oakland, and in 2014, Sims played 38%. I imagine Peko's 55% would get split up 3 ways between Sims, Thompson, and Billings (or Marcus Hardison or potentially someone added via draft or FA). If they get split up equally, Sims goes up to 56%, while Thompson and Billings get 18% each. If Thompson is healthy or Billings looks good and can handle more, maybe Sims only goes up to 45-50%. I don't think it's outrageous.
  15. Peko Coming Back???

    I think this is a good start. When you factor in age and contract, I'd rank them in this order, where #1 needs to go the most: 1. Peko. His contract is over. He was paid $4.5 million per year (12th highest among 4-3 DTs) to stay in his gap in run D, and he was only marginally successful at that. Pat Sims was a starter in Oakland and can probably take most of the snaps that Peko took at nose roughly the same level of play and at a much cheaper $1.2 million. Hopefully some combination of Brandon Thompson ($840k), Andrew Billings, and Geno Atkins can fill in at under tackle on run downs so Atkins can stay fresh for 3rd down. 2. Dansby. His contract is over. His strength was supposed to be his coverage. We gave him some tough coverage assignments, so he probably wasn't as bad as he looked, but he's not the dominant player he used to be. Vigil was decent enough in coverage that he should probably be the second nickel backer. 3. Maualuga. He is being paid $5 million per year (13th highest among 4-3 MLBs), but it was front-loaded so that his cap hit was $7.2 million in 2015. He is under contract for one more year with a cap hit of $3.7 million, all of which we'd get back if we cut him. The main reason I rank him lower is that he's the only physical run-stopping linebacker we have besides Burfict, and I don't think we can count on Burfict to play 16 games a season. 4. Adam Jones. He is being paid $7.3 million per year (21st highest among CBs), which I think is a fair contract for a guy who plays up to his 2014-2015 level. His 2016 level was not as good, and I imagine he will continue to decline. His cap hit in 2017 is $8.2 million, and we get back $6.8 million if we cut him. His situation, of course, is highly dependent on his legal issues and what we do with Dre. 5. Michael Johnson. He is being paid $5 million per year (20th among 4-3 DEs), which is also probably a fair contract. His cap hit is $5.1 million, but he has more bonuses in his contract so we only get $2.9 million back if we cut him. I think we're better off hanging onto him but lowering his snap count. We should look in the draft for a pass rusher. Both Atkins and Dunlap played on only passing downs as rookies. Bodine looked competent over the second half of the season. If the Bengals believe he can continue to improve to be a good center, then I think he should be extended now with 1 year left on his contract to get more favorable terms. Ogbuehi probably backs up both tackle spots, if we bring back Whitworth, which I hope.

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