Big Alice

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1,042 The F'n Man!

About Big Alice

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  • Birthday 01/31/1972

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  1. I'm really surprised that there's a question about Carl Lawson. My immediate reaction was "rush end". The more I think about it, though, maybe the Bengals really will try him at LB. Regardless, as you said, he's a roster lock. As for the guys you said are ahead of Nickerson, I don't think there's anyone on that list that's done anything to create any separation. The camp battle for those last couple spots is going to babe legitimate free-for-all. Sent from my iPhone using
  2. A Ross wasn't "great value" at 9. However, he was indisputably one of the best three receivers in this class. That group of three was head and shoulders better than the next group that were projected at the top of the second round. The Bengals obviously had a very high grade on Ross. To get him they really had to take him at 9. Had they traded down half a dozen spots, there's a really good chance he'd have been gone. Just ask the Packers. The story is they wanted T.J. Watt, and were sure they could trade down and still get him. They moved down from 29 to 33 - and got screwed by the Stealers who took Watt at 30. Sent from my iPhone using
  3. Good point. I used to average the rankings of the players. I stopped for exactly the opposite reason you stated. Too many times, there'd be a guy that was ranked, say, top 15 on three lists, but then would be 42 on the fourth. Joe Mixon, this year is another example. If memory serves, he was ranked 61, 84, and not at all on the other two lists. The best way to do it would be to tally a composite ranking that was weighted by the range of the rankings. Frankly that's just another layer of work I haven't invested the energy into. Btw, it's a weekly radio show. We put each show up as podcast after the fact. Sent from my iPhone using
  4. I pull Top 100 prospect lists from four different sources. Then I rank the players based on their highest ranking in any one of those scouting service lists. This year that returned 134 players. The players were given a value corresponding with their ranking 134 - 1. Each of the picks in the first three rounds is assigned a value. 107 for #1, all the way to 1 for the last pick in the third round. All of the values of the picks available to each team at the beginning of the draft are added together. Future acquired picks (in the first three rounds) are used to adjust the team's pick value as if the pick is the 17th pick of each round. For instance, if a team trades for a future #1, the corresponding value of the 17th pick is subtracted from that team's pick total. Conversely, if a team trades away a future pick, the value of that pick is added to their pick total. Once the draft is finished, the value of all the players acquired is added together. This shows how much talent was added. Then that total is divided by the team's total pick value. This returns what I call a draft efficiency rating. That's the score that you see. Sent from my iPhone using
  5. Cleveland 916.59 A+ Buffalo 770.09 A Indianapolis 768.44 A New Orleans 746.27 A San Francisco 711.18 A- Baltimore 654.97 B+ Cincinnati 644.78 B+ Los Angeles Chargers 575.56 B Minnesota 536.36 B Jacksonville 511.01 B- Miami 504.48 B- Denver 498.9 C+ Seatlle 482.13 C+ Washington 481.72 C+ Carolina 469.95 C+ New England 462.52 C+ New York Jets 400.48 C Tampa Bay 377.29 C Dallas 364.17 C Green Bay 340.15 C Arizona 328.05 C Houston 316.74 C Tennessee 301.42 C Detroit 280.15 C- Oakland 274.67 C- New York Giants 269.49 C- Philadelphia 267.52 C- Pittsburgh 240.11 D+ Los Angeles Rams 180.74 D Atlanta 153.6 D- Kansas City 149.17 F Chicago 147.35 F I've been playing with numbers relative to the draft for years. The math is mind-numbing, but basically, players are assigned a value based on pre-draft rankings (from multiple sources). Each team is assigned pick values based on what they have coming into the draft. As players are added, their value is assigned to their new team. Traded future picks are accounted for, as well. Total player value added is a primary factor, but "pick efficiency" is used to adjust it. As much as it pains me to say it, Cleveland destroyed this draft. Anyway, if you want to hear me talk about these numbers, red flags, and drafted quarterbacks, check out the show...
  6. John Ross at 9 wasn't a reach, at all. Obviously, it'd have been a better "value" if the Bengals had been able to trade 6 spots and still get him. However, he would not have stayed on he board much longer. With Corey Davis and Mike Williams already gone, any team looking to add a receiver was going to take Ross. The drop off to the next group (Curtis Samuel and Zay Jones) was pretty significant. Sent from my iPhone using
  7. Josh Harvey-Clemons is the highest value pick at a position that's not already log jammed. Carl Lawson is another option, but back-to-back ends is unlikely.
  8. At the risk of sounding too much like a homer, that's one of the best value picks of the draft. My composite rankings had him at 34. Sent from my iPhone using
  9. Assuming Joe Mixon isn't the pick in the second (or third) round... I like the idea of throwing a third day pick at the Skins for Matt Jones. He's a big physical runner that hits the hole with violence and bad intentions. He's had issues fumbling the ball, but you can coach that out of a guy. Sent from my iPhone using
  10. Of the Bengals get Zach Cunningham at 41, we should all be doing cartwheels. Sent from my iPhone using
  11. We're going to find out if that's true with this next pick. Sent from my iPhone using
  12. It's not just that he ran 4.22. If you watch his tape, that speed actually shows up. His get-off is unreal. He's at top speed in just a couple steps. He's a little short, but he's not a "small" guy. 5'11 is alright. He's taller than Desean Jackson and the the same height as Percy Harvin. If he shows their talent without the headaches those guy brought with them, it's a home run. Sent from my iPhone using
  13. Right on. The only thing the Bengals NEED is o-line. There was no value there, so the Bengals were kind of screwed. If the protection isn't better next year, it makes absolutely no difference who was taken. Also, it could be argued that a legitimate burner like Ross makes opposing defenses play a little more honest in their pass rushing schemes. Sent from my iPhone using
  14. Thanks for the feedback! ...particularly because it was positive. Lol Sent from my iPhone using
  15. Over ten years, I was part of the process for at least 5,000 drug tests. The total number of "internally" diluted samples? Zero. Sent from my iPhone using