Gauging draft value

[Bengals1181]

In one article Paul Dehner provides more value than his predecessor ever did.

 

 

 

It's Monday. We enjoyed a gorgeous weekend. The trees are beginning to bloom. Spring is here.

Which only means one thing on the Walkthrough: Time for deep statistical analysis!

Yes, I see the eyes rolling and fingers scrolling. Go ahead on down to IN CASE YOU MISSED IT, that's fine, but for those interested in the Bengals first-round pick I think you might find this interesting.

Basically, with the Bengals debating position and player type selecting at No. 24 overall, I wanted to know what positions were taken the most in their pick range and what position showed the highest propensity for success out of that range. So, the process became to take a look at every pick made between 20-28 the last five years and break them down by position and production.

The production number is general and certainly not a perfect scientific formula, but we are looking for general trends rather than specifics. I used the Career Approximate Value number associated with each player at pro-football-reference.com then went down the line of the previous drafts.

The results offered an interesting cross-section of what traditionally happens here and a surprising undervalued position at this spot that might warrant extra attention when analyzing the results.

As for position groups, here's how the 45 players broke down:

 

• Quarterbacks: 2 (4%)
• Running Backs: 2 (4%)
• Offensive line: 11 (24%)
• Wide Receiver: 6 (13%)
• Tight End: 3 (7%)
• Defensive Line: 13 (29%)
• Linebackers: 2 (4%)
• Defensive backs: 6 (13%)

 

The cross-section of positions selected at this range of the draft mirrors very closely the cross-section of overall positions selected in the first rounds. Essentially, the same positions are prioritized in the back end of first as are over the entire round. The only minor differences come in a fewer number of linebackers and quarterbacks being selected here and a higher percentage of tight ends. But even those percentages are negligible.

Here are the total numbers broken down by position out of 160 first-round picks the last five years:

 

• Quarterbacks: 14 (9%)
• Running Backs: 10 (6%)
• Offensive line: 33 (21%)
• Wide Receiver: 18 (11%)
• Tight End: 3 (2%)
• Defensive Line: 46 (29%)
• Linebackers: 12 (8%)
• Defensive backs: 24 (15%)

 

Interesting sidenote, teams use a higher percentage of first-round picks on defensive linemen, but the Bengals built one of the most effective and deepest defensive lines in football without a single first-round selection in the rotation. That's a slow clap for DL coach Jay Hayes and now Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. Also keep that in mind if projecting Mizzou DE Kony Ealy or any other of the line prospects to the Bengals at 24.

Back to the statistics.

A more important question in regards to this draft is how have those players selected in picks 20-28 fared as far as production by position. If we take a look at the average approximate career value number of each position drafted as a whole you see the picture painted clearer (the higher the number, the more production):

 

• Quarterbacks: 4
• Running Backs: 3.8
• Offensive line: 6
• Wide Receiver: 6.4
• Tight End: 3.9
• Defensive Line: 4.1
• Linebackers: 8.5
• Defensive backs: 4.7

 

Going by these numbers you see a higher production rate coming from the offensive line, wide receiver and linebacker position with lower numbers from the players selected coming from the defensive line, running backs and quarterback.

For starters, those quarterbacks were two of the bigger busts in recent draft history: Brandon Weeden and Tim Tebow.

The most interesting number to come out of all of this is the combination of few linebackers selected here compared with how well those picked have done. The sample size would be considered small, to be sure, however, you can argue the best player selected in this range the last five years was Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews. The other linebacker is New England's Dont'a Hightower, who was rated one of the top 12 outside linebackers in football last year (PFF) and caught fire making plays down the stretch last season.

What makes this correlation interesting is a linebacker many are raving about is expected to be available in this range again this year and some mocks have the Bengals taking him: Ohio State's Ryan Shazier.

Linebackers are slightly undervalued in this range, but recent history shows perhaps they shouldn't be. All the more case for the Bengals to keep a close eye on the OSU linebacker.

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/blogs/2014/04/14/bengals-walkthrough-41414-gauging-draft-value/7589319/