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Prediction: Bengals will beat Jaguars


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Prediction: Bengals will beat Jaguars
October, 31, 2014
Oct 31
1:00
PM ET
By Coley Harvey | ESPN.com
 
CINCINNATI -- Among many positives working in the Cincinnati Bengals' favor this week is the fact that they have been quite good in goal-to-go efficiency this season.

So has Jacksonville's defense.

The Jaguars enter this week ranked second in the league in goal-to-go efficiency. They are allowing touchdowns on 56.3 percent of the goal-line series they are defending. Entering last week, Baltimore had the best goal-to-go efficiency in the league, holding opponents to a 45.5 touchdown conversion percentage in those situations. As solid as that goal-line defense was, it was no match for the Bengals. Cincinnati scored on all three of its goal-to-go possessions against the Ravens. Its offense should be in for a repeat against the Jaguars.

If that's not enough to beat lowly Jacksonville, the Bengals can always use this as motivation: their division and in-state rivals, the Cleveland Browns, lost to the then-winless Jaguars two weeks ago. Cincinnati doesn't want to succumb to the same fate. Nor will it.

Bengals 34, Jaguars 14
 
 
 
Prediction: Bengals will beat Jaguars
October, 31, 2014
Oct 31
1:00
PM ET
By Michael DiRocco | ESPN.com
 
Though Blake Bortles leads the NFL with 12 interceptions, including four that have been returned for touchdowns, that’s not the offense’s biggest problem. It’s the team’s inability to finish drives.

The Jaguars had five drives end inside the Miami 38-yard line during the first half last Sunday but got only three points. Penalties, turnovers and a blocked field goal killed drives. The Jaguars are also among the worst teams in the NFL in the red zone. They are last in average yards per play (1.88), average yards per game (8.0) and Total QBR (4.2) in the red zone. Their third-down conversion rate in the red zone is 31st (22.2 percent). The Bengals rank in the top 10 in red zone efficiency defense and third-down defense, which offsets the fact they rank 30th in yards allowed per game (399.1) and 29th in rushing defense (140.7 ypg).

That matches up perfectly with the Jaguars’ offense: good until reaching the red zone. My expectation is the Jaguars will move the ball somewhat regularly and then bog down in the red zone and come away with field goals. That’s usually not enough to win on the road.

My prediction: Bengals 24, Jaguars 18
 

 

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