Thoughts spring to mind as season looms

[The Entertainer]

[quote][size=3][b]Reds insider[/b][/size]
Thoughts spring to mind as season looms

BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER


With one month to go before Reds pitchers and catchers report to Sarasota, Fla., here's what should be Priority One on the club's to-do list: signing Aaron Harang long-term.

"It's something we're exploring," Cincinnati general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We haven't had a lot of conversations since we exchanged arbitration numbers."

As these things generally go, Harang probably is willing to take less than the $5.5 million he's asking for in arbitration for this season in exchange for three or four years of security. In Harang's case, if the Reds can get him for $35 million or $36 million for four years, it could be a bargain.

If Harang were a free agent this offseason - after a 16-11, 234-inning, 216-strikeout season - he would be looking at $12 million a year.

Here's a flurry of other observations about the Reds:

The problem with moving center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. to right field is the injury history of Ryan Freel, his prospective replacement. Freel missed 30 games last year and 59 in 2005.

If Freel's out of the lineup, the best choice to put in the outfield is Jeff Conine, particularly on the days Scott Hatteberg starts at first base.

Conine plays left or right; does Griffey go back to get center field on those days?

The Reds' payroll will be an absolute minimum of $66.9 million and probably end up at more than $70 million. (My previous estimates were high because I thought Harang would make $8 million or $9 million this year, not $4.25 million or $5.5 million).

Here's the math involved: The 15 Reds players under contract will make $59.2 million this season (Griffey $12.5 million, Adam Dunn $10.5 million, Eric Milton $9 million, Kyle Lohse $4.2 million, Bronson Arroyo $3.8 million, Alex Gonzalez $3.5 million, Rheal Cormier $2.25 million, David Weathers $2.25 million, Mike Stanton $2 million, Jeff Conine $2 million, David Ross $1.6 million, Freel $1.7 million, Hatteberg $1.65 million, Javier Valentin $1.25 million and Juan Castro $1 million).

Harang will get at least $4.25 million in arbitration. The other players can make no less than $380,000.

My guess is Harang will get $5.5 million in arbitration. Some of the other players will make more than the minimum, particularly if players with big-league service, like Bubba Crosby and Chad Moeller, make the club.

The payroll for the Opening Day roster, which includes players on the disabled list, is likely to be somewhere north of $70 million - up nearly $10 million over last year's payroll of $60.9 million.

Unfortunately for the Reds, all that $10 million did in this market is offset inflation.

Unless Krivsky's personal lawyer is hearing the case, Harang's going to win if it goes to arbitration. Here's my case if I'm Harang's representative: Gil Meche, who won five fewer games, pitched 48 fewer innings and had a .72 higher ERA, is getting $11 million a year from the Royals. And you want to give Harang $4.25 million? Come on.

When looking at last season's big trade between the Nationals and the Reds, do so as if Gonzalez came to Cincinnati in the deal as well. Why? Austin Kearns is asking for $4.25 million in arbitration from the Nationals, who offered $3.65 million, and Felipe Lopez is asking for $4.1 million and was offered $3.7 million.

If they still were on Cincinnati's roster, the Reds would not have had the money to sign Gonzalez.

The question is whether Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Gonzalez are worth what Kearns, Lopez and Ryan Wagner are.

Buried in a New York Times story about Barry Bonds' contract with San Francisco Giants still being in limbo was an item saying the Giants made a run at getting Adam Dunn in a trade.

Krivsky doesn't discuss potential trades, but it isn't surprising that the Reds would listen to an offer for Dunn.

However, given how the last month and a half of last season went, the Reds probably would be wise to get some offense in a deal. Dunn was awful in August (.188) but still tied for team lead in homers (seven) and was third in RBI (16) for the month.

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman gave the Reds a C-minus for their offseason activity - the third-lowest grade in the National League. But don't clamor for the return of former GM Jim Bowden, whose Nationals were given an F.

Krivsky won't say much about the Reds' free agent activity, except "there are still some serviceable guys out there."

Two who could fit into the Reds' plans are pitchers Dan Kolb and Tony Armas. Krivsky wouldn't say whether either is on the Reds' list.[/quote]



[url="http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070121/COL09/701210420/1062/SPT"]Enquirer.com[/url]