Saarloos insurance policy

[The Entertainer]

[quote][size=3][b]Saarloos insurance policy[/b][/size]
New starter increases chance Bailey will begin at Triple-A

BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER


The day the Reds traded for Kirk Saarloos, I was headed for the Belterra casino. (If you go down there, see if you can find my shirt, because I definitely lost it).

But I digress. My first thought when I heard of the trade was: Homer Bailey starts the season in Louisville.

General manager Wayne Krivsky wouldn't go quite that far when asked if Bailey might start the season with the Reds.

But the Reds' trade for Saarloos gives the team a pitcher who has been a semi-effective starter in the big leagues. His stuff - he's a sinkerball specialist who doesn't strike out many - is best suited for starting.

He gives the Reds another reason not to rush Bailey.

Saarloos will make $1.2 million this season, and the Reds gave up David Shafer, the closer at Double-A Chattanooga last season, to get him, so he comes at a fairly steep price.

The guess here is that he's the leading candidate in a crowded field for the fifth starter spot.

"He's going to get a shot at it," Reds manager Jerry Narron said. "He can do either - start or relieve. We'll see how it goes at spring training."

Going into spring training, the list of No. 5 starter candidates is long. Narron listed Saarloos, Elizardo Ramirez, Bobby Livingston, Victor Santos, Matt Belisle and Bailey.

But it's pretty clear that the Reds' preference is that Bailey start in Triple-A.

This Reds Insider has banged the Homer drum pretty hard since he started going lights out at Double-A last season. But I see the Reds' logic in being patient. I wrote a couple weeks ago that if the Reds were going to break through this season, Bailey was going to have to be in the rotation and be good.

If he starts the season at Louisville and stays there into the summer, they're going to need someone else to have a breakout year. Edwin Encarnacion? Brandon Phillips? One of the young relievers?

The point of the column two weeks ago wasn't that the Reds needed to push Bailey. It was that, on paper, they look like a fourth- or fifth-place team, and someone is going to have to break out for them to have a winning season.

Saarloos is probably not that guy. But he could be a reliable No. 5 starter. He went 10-9 with a 4.17 ERA for Oakland in that role in 2005.

Before the Saarloos trade, I would have made Belisle the favorite to win the final rotation spot - based on stuff and upside.

He was very good in two starts at the end of last season (92/3 innings, one run, seven hits). He pitched eight games in the Puerto Rican Winter League and went 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA.

Belisle had a decent 2006 season - 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in 30 games. His stuff makes him better suited for a setup role than Saarloos.

MORE HOMER: Bailey went 10-6 with a 2.47 ERA in the 26 starts split between Single-A and Double-A last season.

A nice year, no doubt.

But Chattanooga first baseman Joey Votto won the Southern League batting title (.319), finished second in home runs (22), finished third in RBI (77) and came within one double of setting the league record for doubles (46).

To me, that's better statistically than the season Bailey had. But Bailey won the Chief Bender Award as the Reds' top minor leaguer.

There is absolutely no doubt that Bailey is the better prospect and better story.

I'm not big on conspiracy theories but maybe someone in the Reds' front office decided the club could use the positive publicity that Bailey would generate on the Reds Caravan.

EASY EDWIN: Encarnacion was the hitting star in Aquilas' 11-3 victory over Licey in the Dominican League championship series Thursday. Encarnacion went 5-for-5 with a home run. Aguilas went up four games to two in the best-of-nine series.

Encarnacion hit .303 with four home runs and 12 RBI in the Dominican regular season.

GONZALEZ FOR LOPEZ: Is there any doubt that trading Felipe Lopez paved the way for the signing Alex Gonzalez? Lopez signed with the Washington Nationals for $3.9 million. The Reds will play Gonzalez $3.5 million.

It would be an interesting case study to see who has a bigger positive impact on his club this season. Lopez almost assuredly will produce more offense; Gonzalez will play better defense. Defense is harder to quantify, but the Reds are banking on the upgrade defensively at shortstop as helping the pitching.[/quote]



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