AFC North teams face toughest strength of schedule in 2024 NFL season; NFC South has easiest slate

[Arkansas Bengal]

Published: May 07, 2024 at 11:38 AM

 

Kevin Patra

Around the NFL Writer

 

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As we wait for the NFL's 2024 schedule release party, let's look at one part of the equation we already know: strength of schedule.

 

The 2024 opponents are set, so while we don't know when each game will take place, we know the matchups.

 

Below is a ranking of teams with the toughest strength of schedule entering 2024 to the easiest slate, courtesy of NFL Research.

Table inside Article

Rank	Team	SOS	Opp. Win Pct.
1.	Cleveland Browns	158-131	.547
2.	Baltimore Ravens	155-134	.536
3.	Pittsburgh Stealers	154-135	.533
T-4.	Houston Texans	152-137	.526
T-4.	Green Bay Packers	152-137	.526
T-6.	New York Giants	149-140	.516
T-6.	Buffalo Bills	149-140	.516
T-8.	Jacksonville Jaguars	148-141	.512
T-8.	Las Vegas Raiders	148-141	.512
T-8.	New England Patriots	148-141	.512
11.	Detroit Lions	147-142	.509
T-12.	Los Angeles Rams	146-143	.505
T-12.	San Francisco 49ers	146-143	.505
T-12.	Dallas Cowboys	146-143	.505
T-12.	New York Jets	146-143	.505
T-16.	Cincinnati Bengals	145-144	.502
T-16.	Washington Commanders	145-144	.502
T-16.	Minnesota Vikings	145-144	.502
T-16.	Kansas City Chiefs	145-144	.502
20.	Denver Broncos	143-146	.495
T-21.	Indianapolis Colts	142-147	.491
T-21.	Philadelphia Eagles	142-147	.491
T-21.	Tennessee Titans	142-147	.491
T-24.	Arizona Cardinals	141-148	.488
T-24.	Seattle Seahawks	141-148	.488
T-24.	Miami Dolphins	141-148	.488
T-27.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	138-151	.478
T-27.	Los Angeles Chargers	138-151	.478
T-29.	Carolina Panthers	135-154	.467
T-29.	Chicago Bears	135-154	.467
T-31.	New Orleans Saints	131-158	.453
T-31.	Atlanta Falcons	131-158	.453

 

Let's first acknowledge that since SOS is based solely on how a club's opponents finished the previous season, it's a flawed metric. It doesn't consider how teams wound up where they finished a year ago (i.e., injuries), nor does it factor in offseason improvements. It also says little about how a team's future season will go.

 

For instance, the Eagles had the hardest strength of schedule entering 2023 yet became the second such club to make the playoffs since 2017. Philadelphia's collapse down the stretch had more to do with injuries and inconsistent play than its opponents' previous records.

 

Playing in the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons had the easiest strength of schedule entering last season. They missed the playoffs at 7-10. Since 2020, including ties, three of the five teams with the easiest SOS entering the season made the postseason; the '23 Falcons and '22 Commanders were the outliers.

 

As long as we don't make grand predictions based on a flimsy metric, perusing SOS can be a simple, fun way to look at the upcoming season.

 

The NFL prides itself on season-to-season turnover, which is baked into the schedule. With division winners playing fellow division winners, teams that made strides one season see their opposition stiffen the next. The Detroit Lions, for example, entered 2023 with the 13th-easiest schedule on their way to an NFC North title. In 2024, they enter with the 11th-most difficult.

 

We can further break down the schedule based on how many previous playoff teams a club is set to face -- again, this is not a metric for determining future outcomes but a simple fact that could affect how many prime-time or standalone games a club might find on its schedule.

The Baltimore Ravens face 10 2023 playoff teams, one more than any other club.

 

• Ravens (10): CLE (2x), PIT (2x), PHI, BUF, KC, DAL, HOU, TB
• Bengals (9): CLE (2x), PIT (2x), BAL (2x), PHI, KC, DAL
• 49ers (9): LAR (2x), DET, DAL, KC, GB, MIA, BUF, TB
• Cowboys (9): PHI (2x), BAL, TB, HOU, DET, CLE, PIT, SF

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/strength-of-schedule-2024-nfl-season-afc-north-nfc-south

 

[Bleeds Orange]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:38 AM, Arkansas Bengal said:

Let's first acknowledge that since SOS is based solely on how a club's opponents finished the previous season, it's a flawed metric. It doesn't consider how teams wound up where they finished a year ago (i.e., injuries), nor does it factor in offseason improvements. It also says little about how a team's future season will go.

 

This is very true, but the Bengals would be division champions nearly every year if they were in the AFCS or NFCS. The Patriots coasted to 12-4 every year by being in a weak AFCE. It sucks that the Bengals have to fight through six rough ass division games every year. 

 

I'm old and still remember having to put up with this in the 70s, as well, with two games against the steroid bunch every year. The Bengals were among the top 3-4 teams in the league 1975 and 1976 and had nothing to show for it.

[sparky151]

It makes a lot more sense to rate strength of schedule by opponents expected win totals for 2024 rather than their final record in 2023.