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Simulated NCAA Football tournament


globetrotter

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Game 1 is over.
OSU v Florida Atlantic at Tennessee's stadium in Knoxville. I am going to try to find a site in between the two teams with a large seating capacity.

OSU 10
Florida Atlantic 9

Defensive struggle. Some highlights.

OSU
QB-Beckman 7-14 112yds 0tds 2ints
RB-Wells 38carries 128 yards 1td
WR-Robiskie 4-71
LB-Laurinitis 5 tackles 1 sack

Florida Atlantic
QB-Clayton 8-14 70yards 0tds 1int
LB-Allen 11tackles
LB-Sincere 8 tackles sack
LE-Jones 8 tackles 1 sack 1 int

Defensive Standstill
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675163' date='Jun 24 2008, 11:14 PM']Game 1 is over.
OSU v Florida Atlantic at Tennessee's stadium in Knoxville. I am going to try to find a site in between the two teams with a large seating capacity.

OSU 10
Florida Atlantic 9

Defensive struggle. Some highlights.

OSU
QB-Beckman 7-14 112yds 0tds 2ints
RB-Wells 38carries 128 yards 1td
WR-Robiskie 4-71
LB-Laurinitis 5 tackles 1 sack

Florida Atlantic
QB-Clayton 8-14 70yards 0tds 1int
LB-Allen 11tackles
LB-Sincere 8 tackles sack
LE-Jones 8 tackles 1 sack 1 int

Defensive Standstill[/quote]


Game 2 Florida v Kansas at Ole Miss

Florida 24 Ole Miss 0

Another Defensive struggle

Florida
QB Tim Tebow 15-29 176 yards 5ints
WR Caldwell and Cooper each with 3 catches for 52 yards; cooper also had a 55 yard pr for a td
DE Harvey 5 tackles 2 sacks 1 int for a td
CB Manson 5 tackles 1 int
LB Doe 4 tackles and a int for a td

Kansas
QB Meier 8-20 67 yards 4ints
WR Herford 5-53
CB Talib 5 tackles 4picks
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675165' date='Jun 25 2008, 12:39 AM']Game 2 Florida v Kansas at Ole Miss

Florida 24 Ole Miss 0

Another Defensive struggle

Florida
QB Tim Tebow 15-29 176 yards 5ints
WR Caldwell and Cooper each with 3 catches for 52 yards; cooper also had a 55 yard pr for a td
DE Harvey 5 tackles 2 sacks 1 int for a td
CB Manson 5 tackles 1 int
LB Doe 4 tackles and a int for a td

Kansas
QB Meier 8-20 67 yards 4ints
WR Herford 5-53
CB Talib 5 tackles 4picks[/quote]

Va Tech 14 Arizona State 7 @ Texas Stadium in Austin

Va Tech
QB Glennon 7-12 82 yards 1td 0ints
RB Ore 21-112 1td 79yards
LB Adibi 6tackles 3tfl
CB Flowers 5 tackles 1 int
FS Parker 2 tackles 2ints

ASU
QB Carpenter 16-29 165 yards 1td 4ints
WR Burgess 5-77
LE Davis 6tackles 4 tfl 2sacks
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675161' date='Jun 25 2008, 12:06 AM']Its nowhere near 10% way above....way above.[/quote]


[quote name='Bengals1181' post='675179' date='Jun 25 2008, 08:16 AM']do you know the actual percentage?[/quote]

I'd wager it isn't "way above" if it is above at all.
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675189' date='Jun 25 2008, 08:25 AM']I'd wager it isn't "way above" if it is above at all.[/quote]

I am figuring it out as we speak....and it is above. But not way above.

So far
Con USA
Win % v BCS: 11.11% as a conference (3-24)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 21.4% as a conference (3-11)
% of Home games: 42.3% (11 home 15 away 1 neutral)

MAC
Win % v BCS: 11.9% as a conference (5-37)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 9.09% (1-10)
% of Home games: 22.5% (9h 31a 2n)

4 more conferences to go.

The information is very interesting. I seem to have been wrong about the record (I thought it would be in the 20-30% range) but very right about the home field issue.
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675227' date='Jun 25 2008, 11:30 AM']I am figuring it out as we speak....and it is above. But not way above.

So far
Con USA
Win % v BCS: 11.11% as a conference (3-24)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 21.4% as a conference (3-11)
% of Home games: 42.3% (11 home 15 away 1 neutral)

MAC
Win % v BCS: 11.9% as a conference (5-37)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 9.09% (1-10)
% of Home games: 22.5% (9h 31a 2n)

4 more conferences to go.

The information is very interesting. I seem to have been wrong about the record (I thought it would be in the 20-30% range) but very right about the home field issue.[/quote]

I'd venture that Conf. USA is probably the most competitive conference of the bottom 5. What timespan is this over?


[quote name='Bengals1181' post='675228' date='Jun 25 2008, 11:36 AM']of those 3 Conf usa wins, how many were by teams no longer in the conference and now in one of the big 6?[/quote]

Good question.



But, I get back to the same question. Right now you're looking at 10-11% winning percentage of non-BCS teams playing BCS teams yet now we're advocating a playoff system so that these teams can "potentially" win 4 in a row against BCS teams?

I understand the argument for a playoff system - I just don't think you're going about it the right way. You need to argue more from the Auburn / BCS school that was undefeated but didn't get a chance at the NC game angle because of preseason rankings more so than the "have-nots" being included...
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675243' date='Jun 25 2008, 11:05 AM']I'd venture that Conf. USA is probably the most competitive conference of the bottom 5. What timespan is this over?




Good question.



But, I get back to the same question. Right now you're looking at 10-11% winning percentage of non-BCS teams playing BCS teams yet now we're advocating a playoff system so that these teams can "potentially" win 4 in a row against BCS teams?

I understand the argument for a playoff system - I just don't think you're going about it the right way. You need to argue more from the Auburn / BCS school that was undefeated but didn't get a chance at the NC game angle because of preseason rankings more so than the "have-nots" being included...[/quote]

Its from 2007 only.

Also you are ignoring the fact that most of these games are happening on the road.

Fresno State in baseball this year is a great example of what a team with a chance can do. If you are a member of NCAA Division 1A football you should have a chance to win the NCAA Division 1A football championship.

Imagine a scenario where Tennessee was not allowed to play in the title game no matter how well they did. Imagine that they have to play 7 away games a year and no big team will play in Tennessee. Would you think that an all inclusive tournament was silly then?
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675248' date='Jun 25 2008, 12:14 PM']Its from 2007 only.

Also you are ignoring the fact that most of these games are happening on the road.

Fresno State in baseball this year is a great example of what a team with a chance can do. If you are a member of NCAA Division 1A football you should have a chance to win the NCAA Division 1A football championship.

Imagine a scenario where Tennessee was not allowed to play in the title game no matter how well they did. Imagine that they have to play 7 away games a year and no big team will play in Tennessee. Would you think that an all inclusive tournament was silly then?[/quote]

What are the records of non-BCS schools against BCS schools in bowl games? Those are neutral site games...

I was waiting for the Fresno State argument... you can't compare major college football to any other sport be it basketball, baseball, etc. for the simple fact of numbers of players available to pick from, numbers in a program, budgets, etc. If you had to put $1000 on the line in a best of 4 series involving Hawaii (which is one of the best non-BCS schools in recent memory) having to play Georgia, USC, Ohio State, and LSU would you put it on Hawaii??? That is essentially the argument you're making - you're saying the system should be overhauled because the non-BCS school "could" run the table in 4 straight weeks and beat 4 BCS teams... never has happened, and won't. The shear budget differential is huge...

Ohio State's football only budget is like $115 million, Tennessee's is like $70, Florida's $80, etc. the lowest in the SEC is Miss. St at like $30 million, those are football only... Fresno St.'s (which historically has been one of the higher profile non-BCS schools) whole athletic department budget in 2006 was $22, Hawaii's, in 2007, was $13.8 million... The bigger schools have better facilities / weight rooms, indoor facilities, etc. and the small schools can't keep up. And it isn't even close. It is just a fact.

As for Tennessee - they were held out of a NC game - 2001. They lost in their conference championship (which Big Ten and Pac 10 don't have) and that cost them a spot in the NC game. Why should a game that only a handful of conferences have penalize the losing team when other BCS conferences don't? Did I cry about it? No.

I guess it gets down to brass tacks - life isn't fair... deal with it.
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675265' date='Jun 25 2008, 11:53 AM']What are the records of non-BCS schools against BCS schools in bowl games? Those are neutral site games...

I was waiting for the Fresno State argument... you can't compare major college football to any other sport be it basketball, baseball, etc. for the simple fact of numbers of players available to pick from, numbers in a program, budgets, etc. If you had to put $1000 on the line in a best of 4 series involving Hawaii (which is one of the best non-BCS schools in recent memory) having to play Georgia, USC, Ohio State, and LSU would you put it on Hawaii??? That is essentially the argument you're making - you're saying the system should be overhauled because the non-BCS school "could" run the table in 4 straight weeks and beat 4 BCS teams... [b]Would you bet it on Fresno State?[/b] never has happened, and won't. The shear budget differential is huge... [b]That is in no way the argument I am making. What I am saying is that a league benefits from having as many legitimate teams as possible. Compare the NFL to MLB. College Football is much more MLB now than NFL. [/b]

Ohio State's football only budget is like $115 million, Tennessee's is like $70, Florida's $80, etc. the lowest in the SEC is Miss. St at like $30 million, those are football only... Fresno St.'s (which historically has been one of the higher profile non-BCS schools) whole athletic department budget in 2006 was $22, Hawaii's, in 2007, was $13.8 million... The bigger schools have better facilities / weight rooms, indoor facilities, etc. and the small schools can't keep up. And it isn't even close. It is just a fact. [b]I think you just made my point. Because the larger teams put a strangle hold on the money on the top the teams you mentioned can't properly build their programs. They have no hope to do so without a share of the monies that can only be had in a 100% participant tournament.[/b]

As for Tennessee - they were held out of a NC game - 2001. They lost in their conference championship (which Big Ten and Pac 10 don't have) and that cost them a spot in the NC game. Why should a game that only a handful of conferences have penalize the losing team when other BCS conferences don't? Did I cry about it? No.

I guess it gets down to brass tacks - life isn't fair... deal with it. [b]Life isn't fair...that doesn't mean you should not attempt to make it so, or rather, in this case, discuss a way to potentially make it so. [/b][/quote]
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Con USA
Win % v BCS: 11.11% as a conference (3-24)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 21.4% as a conference (3-11)
% of Home games: 42.3% (11 home 15 away 1 neutral)

MAC
Win % v BCS: 11.9% as a conference (5-37)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 9.09% (1-10)
% of Home games: 22.5% (9h 31a 2n)

MWC (edit)
Win % v BCS: 38.88% (7-11)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 63.63% (7-4)
% of Home games: 43.75% (7h 9a 2n)

Sun Belt
Win % v BCS: 11.53% (3-23)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 22.22% (3-23)
% of Home games: 19.23% (5h 21a 0n)


New information supports me a lot more.....

1 more to go I am guessing the end percentage will be about 17%
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[quote]Because the larger teams put a strangle hold on the money on the top the teams you mentioned can't properly build their programs. They have no hope to do so without a share of the monies that can only be had in a 100% participant tournament.[/quote]


The amount of money that teams would get from BCS inclusion would be minimal... Would be significant for the non-BCS schools but would not get those programs anywhere even close to the top programs.

The vast majority of that money comes from TV rights within conferences and game attendance.


So - I guess we're back to your argument being about money and not actual competitiveness on the field...
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675291' date='Jun 25 2008, 01:38 PM']Con USA
[b]Win % v BCS: 11.11% as a conference (3-24)[/b]
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 21.4% as a conference (3-11)
% of Home games: 42.3% (11 home 15 away 1 neutral)

MAC
Win % v BCS: 11.9% as a conference (5-37)
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 9.09% (1-10)
% of Home games: 22.5% (9h 31a 2n)

WAC
[b]Win % v BCS: 38.88% (7-11)[/b]
Win % of teams with winning records v BCS: 63.63% (7-4)
% of Home games: 43.75% (7h 9a 2n)

New information supports me a lot more.....

2 more conferences.[/quote]

You'll need to recheck that...

Conf. USA - I've got at 2-23 for a winning percentage of 8%...

MAC - was correct 5-37 for an 11.9%...



WAC - I've got it at 3-15 which comes out to 16.6% and that factors in two of the higher profile non-BCS programs you hear about - namely Fresno State and Hawaii. Fresno went 2-3, Hawaii 1-1.
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675293' date='Jun 25 2008, 12:39 PM']The amount of money that teams would get from BCS inclusion would be minimal... Would be significant for the non-BCS schools but would not get those programs anywhere even close to the top programs.

The vast majority of that money comes from TV rights within conferences and game attendance.


So - I guess we're back to your argument being about money and not actual competitiveness on the field...[/quote]

If the BCS money is small then why wont the big conferences share? The BCS money is huge! Then you say game attendance and when they have 5 home games and teams wont travel to their stadiums how do they build that?
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675301' date='Jun 25 2008, 12:54 PM']You'll need to recheck that...

Conf. USA - I've got at 2-23 for a winning percentage of 8%...

[b]UCF NC State 25-23 Texas 32-35 S. Florida 12-64 Miss State 3-10
E. Carolina Va Tech 7-17 NC 34-31 WV 7-48 NC State 40-34
Memphis Mississippi 21-23
S Miss Tennessee 19-39 Cincinnati 21-31
Marshall Miami 3-31 WV 23-48 Cincinnati 14-40
UAB MSU 18-55 FSU 24-34 Miss State 13-30
Tulsa Oklahoma 21-62
Houston Oregon 27-48 Alabama 24-30
Tulane Miss State 17-38 LSU 9-34
Rice Baylor 17-42 T. Tech 24-59 Texas 14-58
UTEP T. Tech 31-45
S. Methodist T Tech 9-49 [/b]

You are wrong..are you checking bowl games?

Checking MAC now...



WAC - I've got it at 3-15 which comes out to 16.6% and that factors in two of the higher profile non-BCS programs you hear about - namely Fresno State and Hawaii. Fresno went 2-3, Hawaii 1-1.

I have a spreadsheet I can just email you if you want.[/quote]
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675311' date='Jun 25 2008, 02:18 PM']If the BCS money is small then why wont the big conferences share? [b]The BCS money is huge![/b] Then you say game attendance and when they have 5 home games and teams wont travel to their stadiums how do they build that?[/quote]
As a whole - you're correct... but to each team in a conference it is less than 1.5 million dollars for a BCS bowl.


And, having an all-inclusive tournament is going to get the Tennessee's, Ohio State's, Texas', USC's of the world to go to Fresno State or Boise State or Idaho how??? Those schools are still going to just pay these smaller schools $600,000 or so to get a home game...
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675328' date='Jun 25 2008, 01:39 PM']As a whole - you're correct... but to each team in a conference it is less than 1.5 million dollars for a BCS bowl.


And, having an all-inclusive tournament is going to get the Tennessee's, Ohio State's, Texas', USC's of the world to go to Fresno State or Boise State or Idaho how??? Those schools are still going to just pay these smaller schools $600,000 or so to get a home game...[/quote]

Thats not one of them Its NC v East Carolina and 2 wins by Central Florida. Corrected error on my part.
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675328' date='Jun 25 2008, 01:39 PM']As a whole - you're correct... but to each team in a conference it is less than 1.5 million dollars for a BCS bowl.


And, having an all-inclusive tournament is going to get the Tennessee's, Ohio State's, Texas', USC's of the world to go to Fresno State or Boise State or Idaho how??? Those schools are still going to just pay these smaller schools $600,000 or so to get a home game...[/quote]

Thats a separate argument to illustrate why they have so many wins. If they are forced to have only 6 home games they cant do that.
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675340' date='Jun 25 2008, 03:00 PM']Thats not one of them Its NC v East Carolina and 2 wins by Central Florida. Corrected error on my part.[/quote]
East Carolina beat NC...


[b]Sat, Sep 1 at North Carolina State W 25-23[/b] --
Sat, Sep 15 (6) Texas L 32-35 --
Sat, Sep 22 Memphis W 56-20 --
Sat, Sep 29 Louisiana-Lafayette W 37-19 --
Sat, Oct 6 at East Carolina L 38-52 --
Sat, Oct 13 at (5) South Florida L 12-64 --
Sat, Oct 20 Tulsa W 44-23 --
Sun, Oct 28 at Southern Miss W 34-17 --
Sat, Nov 3 Marshall W 47-13 --
Sat, Nov 10 at UAB W 45-31 --
Sat, Nov 17 at Southern Methodist W 49-20 --
Sat, Nov 24 UTEP W 36-20 --
Sat, Dec 1 Tulsa W 44-25 --

Postseason
Date Opponent Time/Result Audio
Sat, Dec 29 at Mississippi State L 3-10

where is the 2nd Central Florida win?
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675342' date='Jun 25 2008, 02:11 PM']East Carolina beat NC...


[b]Sat, Sep 1 at North Carolina State W 25-23[/b] --
Sat, Sep 15 (6) Texas L 32-35 --
Sat, Sep 22 Memphis W 56-20 --
Sat, Sep 29 Louisiana-Lafayette W 37-19 --
Sat, Oct 6 at East Carolina L 38-52 --
Sat, Oct 13 at (5) South Florida L 12-64 --
Sat, Oct 20 Tulsa W 44-23 --
Sun, Oct 28 at Southern Miss W 34-17 --
Sat, Nov 3 Marshall W 47-13 --
Sat, Nov 10 at UAB W 45-31 --
Sat, Nov 17 at Southern Methodist W 49-20 --
Sat, Nov 24 UTEP W 36-20 --
Sat, Dec 1 Tulsa W 44-25 --

Postseason
Date Opponent Time/Result Audio
Sat, Dec 29 at Mississippi State L 3-10

where is the 2nd Central Florida win?[/quote]

I had them winning that bowl game.... so I do need to adjust then.
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[quote name='globetrotter' post='675345' date='Jun 25 2008, 02:16 PM']I had them winning that bowl game.... so I do need to adjust then.[/quote]


Here is all the data if you would be willing to check my work

Conference USA W L home away
UCF NC State 25-23 Texas 32-35 S. Florida 12-64 Miss State 3-10 1 3 1 2 1
E. Carolina Va Tech 7-17 NC 34-31 WV 7-48 NC State 34-40 1 3 2 2
Memphis Mississippi 21-23 1 1
S Miss Tennessee 19-39 Cincinnati 21-31 2 1 1
Marshall Miami 3-31 WV 23-48 Cincinnati 14-40 3 1 2
UAB MSU 18-55 FSU 24-34 Miss State 13-30 3 3
Tulsa Oklahoma 21-62 1 1
Houston Oregon 27-48 Alabama 24-30 2 2
Tulane Miss State 17-38 LSU 9-34 2 2
Rice Baylor 17-42 T. Tech 24-59 Texas 14-58 3 1 2
UTEP T. Tech 31-45 1 1
S. Methodist T Tech 9-49 1 1
2 25 7.40% 11 15 1 42.30%
2 11 15%
MAC W L home away
BG Minnesota 32-21 MSU 17-28 BC 24-55 1 2 3
Miami Minnesota 35-41 Cincinnati 10-47 Colorado 0-42 Syracuse 17-14 Vanderbilt 13-24 1 4 2 3
Buff Rutgers 3-38 Penn State 24-45 Baylor 21-34 Syracuse 12-20 4 1 3
Ohio Va Tech 7-28 1 1
Temple UCONN 17-22 Penn State 0-31 2 1 1
Akron OSU 2-20 Indiana 24-41 Uconn 10-44 3 3
Kent State Iowa State 23-14 Kentucky 20-56 Ohio State 3-48 1 2 3
C. Michigan Kansas 7-52 Purdue 22-45 Clemson 14-70 Purdue 48-51 4 3 1
Ball State Nebraska 40-41 Illinois 17-28 Indiana 20-38 Rutgers 30-52 4 3 1
W. Michigan WV 24-62 Indiana 27-37 Missouri 24-52 Iowa 28-19 1 3 1 3
E Michigan Pittsburgh 3-27 Vanderbilt 7-30 Michigan 22-33 Northwestern 14-26 4 1 3
Toledo Purdue 24-52 Kansas 13-45 Iowa State 36-35 1 2 2 1
N Illinois Iowa 3-16 Wisconsin 3-44 2 1 1
5 37 11.90% 9 31 2 22.50%
1 10 9.09%
MWC W L home away
BYU Arizona 20-7 UCLA 17-27 UCLA 17-16 2 1 1 1 1
Air Force California 36-42 1 1
Utah Oregon St 7-24 UCLA 44-6 Louisville 44-35 2 1 1 2
New Mexico Arizona 29-27 1 1
TCU Baylor 27-0 Texas 13-34 Stanford 38-36 2 1 1 2
San Diego St Wash State 17-45 ASU 13-34 Cincinnati 23-52 3 1 2
Wyoming Virginia 3-23 1 1
Colorado St. Colorado 28-31 California 28-34 2 1 1
UNLV Wisonsin 13-20 1 1
7 11 38.88% 7 9 2 43.75%
7 4 63.63%
Sun Belt W L home away
Troy Arkansas 26-46 Florida 31-59 Oke St 41-23 Ga 34-44 1 3 1 3
Fla Atlantic Oke St 6-42 Minn 42-39 Kentucky 17-45 S. Florida 23-35 Florida 20-59 1 4 2 3
L-Monroe Clemson 26-49 Texas AnM 14-54 Alabama 21-14 1 2 3
Mid Tenn Louisville 42-58 LSU 0-44 Virginia 21-23 3 1 2
Ark State Texas 13-21 Tenn 27-48 2 2
Louis-Laf SC 14-28 Tenn 7-59 2 2
N Texas Oklahoma 10-79 Arkansas 7-66 2 2
Fla Int'l Penn State 0-59 Maryland 10-26 Miami 9-23 Kansas 3-55 Arkansas 10-58 5 1 4
3 23 11.53% 5 21 19.23%
2 7 22.22%
WAC W L home away
Hawaii Washington 35-28 Georgia 10-41 1 1 1 1
Boise State Washington 10-24 1 1
Fresno St Texas AnM 45-47 Oregon 21-52 Kansas St 45-29 Ga Tech 40-28 2 2 1 2 1
Nevada Nebraska 10-52 Northwestern 31-36 2 2
La Tech California 12-42 Miss 0-24 LSU 10-58 3 3
SJ State ASU 3-45 KSU 14-34 Stanford 0-37 3 3
Utah St Oklahoma 3-54 1 1
NM State Auburn 20-55 1 1
Idaho USC 10-38 Wash State 28-45 2 2
3 16 15.78% 2 15 2 11.76%
3 4 42.85%
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[quote name='Vol_Bengal' post='675301' date='Jun 25 2008, 12:54 PM']You'll need to recheck that...

Conf. USA - I've got at 2-23 for a winning percentage of 8%...

MAC - was correct 5-37 for an 11.9%...



WAC - I've got it at 3-15 which comes out to 16.6% and that factors in two of the higher profile non-BCS programs you hear about - namely Fresno State and Hawaii. Fresno went 2-3, Hawaii 1-1.[/quote]

I have the WAC at 3-15 with Fresno 2-2
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