Bill Polian: Questioning Bengals' success 'absurd'

[Joelist]

_{How about we tell the whole story of the offense instead of trying to scapegoat one player?}

 

_{a) New OC and system}

 

_{b )WR position decimated by injuries}

 

_{c) TE position likewise wrecked by injuries}

 

_{d) 2.2 second release time stemming from both system (get the ball out quick) and inability to protect the QB for longer drop back plays.}

 

_{e) Not going to Hill until later in the season. Also remember we lost Hill after halftime in the playoff game.}

 

_{There were a lot of factors involved in the offensive issues.}

[sparky151]

 

No.  If the NFL was ONLY a "what have you done for me lately" kind of place then almost every great QB would have been benched in the middle of his prime when he had one poor season.

 

And Andy Dalton is only 27 years old and only one season removed from a 33 td, 4300 yard season.  He is no where near passed his prime.  And that one poor season happened to occurred when his receiving corps was decimated by injury.

 

People who understand how the NFL works get it.  

 

You clearly don't have a clue how this works. 

 

 I notice you still haven't offered an explanation for Dalton's increase in interception % each year of his career. In Brady's season of 2013 which you mocked, he had a 25/11 TD/INT line. 

 

The injury excuse is wildly overused, apart from the playoff game. Not to mention the fact that we had an easy schedule last year with Baltimore and Pittsburgh being depleted in their secondaries. But apparently the Bengals are the only team affected by injuries. Green missed 3 games last year but in those games Sanu had 299 receiving yards and the Bengals should have won 2 of them (though Nugent missed the easy field goal vs Carolina). Eifert missed nearly the whole season but Gresham stepped up. He had 62 catches on 79 targets last year vs 64 catches on 94 targets during his probowl season of 2012. The difference is he was catching the ball closer to the line of scrimmage, getting fewer yards but with the same number of TDs. Marvin Jones missed the whole season but Sanu largely replaced him, especially the first half of the season. Sanu disapeared down the stretch but that wasn't injury related and he still had more yards in 2014 than Jones had in 2013. A guy who disappeared was Sanzenbacher who the coaches expected to replace Hawkins. He only had 105 yards for the season, but again that wasn't injury related. Meanwhile the running game was considerably improved last season, especially once Hill became the starter. 

 

You sure seem to put a lot of weight on his 2013 season. It was ok but still had too many interceptions. Dalton was 15th in passer rating for players with at least 200 attempts and had more interceptions than anyone ranked ahead of him. Backed by a highly ranked defense, it got us to the playoffs where Dalton had 5 turnovers (counting his incomplete 4th down passes). A journeyman QB can probably get a team to the playoffs with the #3 defense. Most journeymen don't turn it over that much in a playoff game. 

[HairOnFire]

 

 I notice you still haven't offered an explanation for Dalton's increase in interception % each year of his career. In Brady's season of 2013 which you mocked, he had a 25/11 TD/INT line. 

 

The injury excuse is wildly overused, apart from the playoff game. Not to mention the fact that we had an easy schedule last year with Baltimore and Pittsburgh being depleted in their secondaries. But apparently the Bengals are the only team affected by injuries. Green missed 3 games last year but in those games Sanu had 299 receiving yards and the Bengals should have won 2 of them (though Nugent missed the easy field goal vs Carolina). Eifert missed nearly the whole season but Gresham stepped up. He had 62 catches on 79 targets last year vs 64 catches on 94 targets during his probowl season of 2012. The difference is he was catching the ball closer to the line of scrimmage, getting fewer yards but with the same number of TDs. Marvin Jones missed the whole season but Sanu largely replaced him, especially the first half of the season. Sanu disapeared down the stretch but that wasn't injury related and he still had more yards in 2014 than Jones had in 2013. A guy who disappeared was Sanzenbacher who the coaches expected to replace Hawkins. He only had 105 yards for the season, but again that wasn't injury related. Meanwhile the running game was considerably improved last season, especially once Hill became the starter. 

 

You sure seem to put a lot of weight on his 2013 season. It was ok but still had too many interceptions. Dalton was 15th in passer rating for players with at least 200 attempts and had more interceptions than anyone ranked ahead of him. Backed by a highly ranked defense, it got us to the playoffs where Dalton had 5 turnovers (counting his incomplete 4th down passes). A journeyman QB can probably get a team to the playoffs with the #3 defense. Most journeymen don't turn it over that much in a playoff game. 

 

You say injuries are a wildly overused excuse except for the playoff game and then note how Marvin Jones didn't play a single snap, Eifert only played 8 snaps, and AJ Green missed 3 games.

 

You say Sanu largely replaced Jones in this thread while at the same time slagging his poor play in two other active threads.

 

You admit Sanu disappeared for half of the season but downplay the impact of his poor play by pointing out how he wasn't injured.

 

You note how players like Sanzenbacher were expected to provide depth but failed miserably, which once again you quickly dismiss the failure because the player merely sucked instead of being injured. 

 

As for depth players who actually were injured you conveniently don't mention injured players like James Wright at all.

 

You claim Jermaine Gresham "stepped up" and note how easy it is for a QB to lead a team to the playoffs when backed by the #3 ranked defense, apparently forgetting where Gresham and the Bengals defense were actually ranked. 

 

You note the improved running game but fail to even mention the change in offensive coordinators.

 

And last but almost certainly least you attempt to equate incomplete passes on 4th down as if they were interceptions.

 

Add it all up and you've got a 7-layer bean dip.

[fredtoast]

 

 

 

You sure seem to put a lot of weight on his 2013 season. It was ok but still had too many interceptions. Dalton was 15th in passer rating for players with at least 200 attempts and had more interceptions than anyone ranked ahead of him. Backed by a highly ranked defense, it got us to the playoffs where Dalton had 5 turnovers (counting his incomplete 4th down passes). A journeyman QB can probably get a team to the playoffs with the #3 defense. Most journeymen don't turn it over that much in a playoff game. 

 

This is getting silly.

 

1.  Incomplete passes on fourth down are not "turnovers".

 

 

2.  Dalton has had a defense ranked higher than 6th only once in his career.  During those four years the following teams have had a top 6 defense and not made the playoffs.

 

2014...Bills (#4), Forty-niners (#5), Jets (#6)

2013...Cardinals (#6)

2012...Stealers (#1), Bears (#5)

2011...Jets (#5), Jags (#6)

 

 

3.  Last year we had the #22 defense.  Do I need to make a list of all the teams that have had a defense that bad who have missed the playoffs?

[sparky151]

 

You say injuries are a wildly overused excuse except for the playoff game and then note how Marvin Jones didn't play a single snap, Eifert only played 8 snaps, and AJ Green missed 3 games.

 

You say Sanu largely replaced Jones in this thread while at the same time slagging his poor play in two other active threads.

 

You admit Sanu disappeared for half of the season but downplay the impact of his poor play by pointing out how he wasn't injured.

 

You note how players like Sanzenbacher were expected to provide depth but failed miserably, which once again you quickly dismiss the failure because the player merely sucked instead of being injured. 

 

As for depth players who actually were injured you conveniently don't mention injured players like James Wright at all.

 

You claim Jermaine Gresham "stepped up" and note how easy it is for a QB to lead a team to the playoffs when backed by the #3 ranked defense, apparently forgetting where Gresham and the Bengals defense were actually ranked. 

 

You note the improved running game but fail to even mention the change in offensive coordinators.

 

And last but almost certainly least you attempt to equate incomplete passes on 4th down as if they were interceptions.

 

Add it all up and you've got a 7-layer bean dip.

 

Every NFL team has injuries so they are an all purpose excuse that proves too much. The teams we competed for a playoff spot with, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, had greater injury problems than us. 

 

I said that Sanu effectively replaced Green in the 3 games Green missed. On the whole I think Sanu was largely ineffective, especially in the second half of the season. Yes, I don't think his poor play was injury related. Sanu had 18 catches for 299 yards and 1 TD in the 3 games AJ missed. He had 38 catches for 491 yards and 4 TDs in the other 13 games. 

 

Sure, I was disapointed by Sanzenbacher's play. Weren't you? 

 

I assume you're joking about the team missing Wright. He had 5 catches for the season in the 11 games he played. Three of them were vs Tampa with 1 vs Carolina and 1 vs New Orleans. Greg Little sucks and he had 6 catches in his 6 games played. While it would be nice if nobody ever got hurt, Wright's absence wasn't major. 

 

You're confusing 2 things here, Gresham in 2014 and the defense in 2013. Gresham's 2014 production was down a bit but mainly in yards from his 2012 pro bowl season. In other words the absence of Eifert wasn't crippling, unlike the seasons we had to depend on Coates and Foschi at TE. Fred argued that 2013 was a great year for Dalton, entitling him to a pass for 2014. I pointed out that a journeyman QB can get a team to the playoffs with the #3 defense backing him up. And most journeymen who turn the ball over 5 times in a playoff game are on a short leash.

 

Why should Dalton be excused for decreased inefficiency in his 4th year due to a new OC? He was praised for going to Tom House in the offseason and Hue was brought in to run more and throw less, allowing Dalton to be more efficient. The running game improved, as expected. Dalton, not so much.

 

Surprised you and Fred are arguing that 4th down incompletions aren't turnovers. They certainly are turnover on downs. Functionally they are equivalent to a lost fumble at the line of scrimmage. Most DBs will try to intercept any passes they can but the smart ones will sometimes bat the ball down instead of catching it in some 4th down situations. Most coaches tell their DBs to bat down Hail Mary plays rather than trying to intercept. As you may remember, Dalton tried a couple of low % plays on those 4th downs instead of trying to keep our chances alive. 

[sparky151]

 

This is getting silly.

 

1.  Incomplete passes on fourth down are not "turnovers".

 

 

2.  Dalton has had a defense ranked higher than 6th only once in his career.  During those four years the following teams have had a top 6 defense and not made the playoffs.

 

2014...Bills (#4), Forty-niners (#5), Jets (#6)

2013...Cardinals (#6)

2012...Stealers (#1), Bears (#5)

2011...Jets (#5), Jags (#6)

 

 

3.  Last year we had the #22 defense.  Do I need to make a list of all the teams that have had a defense that bad who have missed the playoffs?

 

1 Yes, turnovers on downs are turnovers. The other team takes possession. 

 

2 How often does the #3 defense miss the playoffs? You claimed 2013 as Dalton's golden year but we could have made the playoffs that year with Sanchez, McCoy, and the usual suspects at QB.

 

3 Agreed the defense was worse in 2014 than 2013. So was Dalton. 

[HairOnFire]

I said that Sanu effectively replaced Green in the 3 games Green missed. On the whole I think Sanu was largely ineffective, especially in the second half of the season.

 

You claimed Sanu had "largely replaced Jones" but now you admit Sanu was mostly ineffective.

[sparky151]

 

So claimed Sanu had "largely replaced Jones" but now you admit Sanu was mostly ineffective.

 

Yes to both. Sanu had more receiving yards in 2014 than Jones had in 2013 so in that sense he replaced him. Sanu also led the league in dropped passes and most of his production came in the first 8 games so he was ineffective down the stretch. Jones had 10 TD catches in 2013 but 4 came in 1 game so we'll see if that was simply an outlier. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Jones had double digit TD catches in 2015 but you never know. Sanu has more catches for more yards and the same number of TDs as Jones in his career but he's not very hard to defend.

[HairOnFire]

.

 

Yes to both.

 

Well there's your problem.

 

You claim a mostly ineffective player adequately replaced a player who had scored 10 TD's the previous season, you ignore the injuries or poor play of backups, and you remain impressed by the vast number of catches Gresham made despite the lack of impact they provided.

 

 

Why should Dalton be excused for decreased inefficiency in his 4th year due to a new OC?

 

Gresham was woefully inefficient last season but you still manage to make excuses for his play.

 

As for Dalton, posters have given you a half dozen theories for why he was less efficient last season but you always dismiss those explanations by focusing on one stat while ignoring two or three others.

 

 

 

Surprised you and Fred are arguing that 4th down incompletions aren't turnovers. They certainly are turnover on downs.

 

Most of your rant is based upon half-truths like the above. 

 

7-layer beandip.

[sparky151]

 

Well there's your problem.

 

You claim a mostly ineffective player adequately replaced a player who had scored 10 TD's the previous season, you ignore the injuries or poor play of backups, and you remain impressed by the vast number of catches Gresham made despite the lack of impact they provided.

 

 

 

Gresham was woefully inefficient last season but you still manage to make excuses for his play.

 

As for Dalton, posters have given you a half dozen theories for why he was less efficient last season but you always dismiss those explanations by focusing on one stat while ignoring two or three others.

 

 

 

Most of your rant is based upon half-truths like the above. 

 

7-layer beandip.

 

I take it your view is that Sanu sucks and is worthless? My view is that he drops too many catchable balls but his career production exceeds Marvin Jones' production. A third of Jones career TDs were in the game vs the Jets. Sanu's career receiving yards per game is slightly higher than Jones' even adjusting for the fact Jones has played fewer games. They have the same number of career TD receptions and Sanu has been involved in more TD plays with a couple of passing TDs. 

 

Poor play from backups is radically different from injuries as an excuse. After all this thread is about whether or not it's absurd to question the Bengals success and methods. If the team picks players who can't or don't produce when given the chance, that's poor management.

 

I don't mind the team moving on from Gresham but the knock on him is his attitude and boneheaded plays. Penalties and fumbles after the catch especially. But we shouldn't ignore he's a much better blocker than Eifert and he did catch a larger share of the balls thrown his way in 2014 than in 2012.

 

I keep asking why Dalton's interception % has climbed each year of his career but nobody has wanted to offer an explanation yet.

[HairOnFire]

I take it your view is that Sanu sucks and is worthless?

 

Never said anything close to that.

 

What I find interesting is how you keep slagging Sanu in other threads but in this one you claim Jones wasn't missed because the Bengals had Sanu, a limited player who all but disappeared for half a season or more. (Your words.)

 

 

 A third of Jones career TDs were in the game vs the Jets.

 

Yeah, you never fail to mention that whenever Marvin's name comes up.

 

I'm a little suprised you haven't found a way to belittle all 10 of the TD's he scored in 2013 by now.

 

 

 

Poor play from backups is radically different from injuries as an excuse.

 

Yet you wave both away as if they don't matter.

 

Injuries to starters don't matter to you. Injuries to backups aren't even mentioned. Poor play from replacements or unproven players are barely mentioned because they lacked stats the year before. Coaching changes aren't worth talking about.   

 

 

 

I don't mind the team moving on from Gresham but the knock on him is his attitude and boneheaded plays. Penalties and fumbles after the catch especially. But we shouldn't ignore he's a much better blocker than Eifert and he did catch a larger share of the balls thrown his way in 2014 than in 2012.

 

You act like Gresham catching more passes was part of the plan instead of a backup option put in place after Eifert's injury.

 

But I guess you have to think that way because you're so busy downplaying the loss of Eifert.

 

Carry on.

 

 

I keep asking why Dalton's interception % has climbed each year of his career but nobody has wanted to offer an explanation yet.

 

Maybe they've heard your rant before and don't think responding is worth the time.

[sparky151]

 

Never said anything close to that.

 

What I find interesting is how you keep slagging Sanu in other threads but in this one you claim Jones wasn't missed because the Bengals had Sanu, a limited player who all but disappeared for half a season or more. (Your words.)

 

 

 

Yeah, you never fail to mention that whenever Marvin's name comes up.

 

I'm a little suprised you haven't found a way to belittle all 10 of the TD's he scored in 2013 by now.

 

 

 

 

Yet you wave both away as if they don't matter.

 

Injuries to starters don't matter to you. Injuries to backups aren't even mentioned. Poor play from replacements or unproven players are barely mentioned because they lacked stats the year before. Coaching changes aren't worth talking about.   

 

 

 

 

You act like Gresham catching more passes was part of the plan instead of a backup option put in place after Eifert's injury.

 

But I guess you have to think that way because you're so busy downplaying the loss of Eifert.

 

Carry on.

 

 

 

Maybe they've heard your rant before and don't think responding is worth the time.

 

Yes, I think Sanu is a limited player. I wanted the team to use an early pick in this year's draft on a WR. Even so, his catches and yards in 2014 exceeded what Jones did in 2013. Jones had 10 TDs that year which is certainly a flashy stat but 4 of them came vs a rookie CB in a game we won by 40 points. On the whole Sanu replaced Jones adequately. 

 

This thread is about whether questioning the Bengals success is "absurd" or not. Polian said it was, the other members of the panel he was on said it wasn't. Considering we haven't won a playoff game in 25 years, it's hard to call it absurd. I don't think injuries hit the Bengals especially hard last year, apart from the playoff game. We lost a WR and TE for the year plus an OT, OG, LB, and CB for part of the year. That's not especially severe. You should probably argue that the starts we gave Newhouse hurt the offense more than the loss of Eifert and Jones. Why is a coaching change a basis for excuses? Sometimes new coaches work out, sometimes they don't. Hue came in saying he wanted to throw less and run more and did so. Usually being more selective in passing and upgrading the running game translates to higher efficiency in passing. With Dalton it didn't. 

 

Since the team had 2 first round talents at TE, we survived the loss of one of them just fine. 

 

You keep dodging the question of why Dalton continues to throw so many interceptions, even while raising his completion %. We both know the answer, you just don't want to admit it.