Bill Polian: Questioning Bengals' success 'absurd'

[Rick]

 
Well if you credit the team record to the QB, then Fred is certainly wrong when it comes to the playoffs. Dalton is 0-4, Sanchez is 4-2, while McCoy and Fitzpatrick are 0-0. But if you want to argue that playoffs don't matter, go ahead. 

I am saying after reading everyone's comments, Andy is the best quarterback of the group began discussed.

[sparky151]

 

Handsome big-armed Carson Palmer is 0-2 in the playoffs, including a loss to mediocre Mark Sanchez. 

 

So maybe it's stupid to blame the QB for playoff losses in a team sport?

 

I agree that team record doesn't mean much in evaluating QBs. Fred and Rick don't seem to agree with that though. If Dalton had played well in the playoff games, he'd get a lot less grief even if the team had still lost all 4. Sanchez completed 12 of 15 passes in the playoff game vs the Bengals. His career playoff passer rating is 94.3. That's comparable to Drew Brees' career passer rating of 95.4. Brees had a rating of 97 last year and nobody blames him rather than the defense for the Saints poor record. 

[|SF2|]

Handsome big-armed Carson Palmer is 0-2 in the playoffs, including a loss to mediocre Mark Sanchez. 
 
So maybe it's stupid to blame the QB for playoff losses in a team sport?

Come on now, Carson only threw 1 pass in his first playoff loss before being Kimo'd. In Andy's defense, he was throwing to practice squad players against Indy in January. What you can't do is explain away the San Diego debacle....just not possible.

BTW, totally agree Andy is better than Sanchez.

[sparky151]

 

 

I still think you missed my point. Go back and read the OP, that's what I was responding to. I agree with Polian that we're doing things right. Maybe I'm missing your point.

 

The NFL is a passing league so the question of how right the Bengals are doing things depends to a great extent on one's opinion of Dalton. The Bengals management is no doubt wedded to Andy but I'm in the camp that considers him an obstacle to improvement. In theory our improved running game and Hue's reduction in called pass plays should have improved Dalton's efficiency numbers while reducing his volume numbers. It turns out that both declined. Thus the search for reasons/excuses. 

[sparky151]

I am saying after reading everyone's comments, Andy is the best quarterback of the group began discussed.

 

Possibly, but the point is that they are all journeymen. 

[|SF2|]

Dalton is the 12th to 15th best QB in the world. The problem is the difference between what the best QB is capable of and Andy is significant just as what Andy can do verses Geno Smith is pretty significant as well.

Do I think we can replace Andy with someone capable of matching his play a year down the road and save money? Yes. Will that make us a better team? No. If we can find a guy who is quite a bit better than by all means do so but I just don't know who that guy is. Maybe mcCarron? No idea.

[sparky151]

Dalton is the 12th to 15th best QB in the world. The problem is the difference between what the best QB is capable of and Andy is significant just as what Andy can do verses Geno Smith is pretty significant as well.

Do I think we can replace Andy with someone capable of matching his play a year down the road and save money? Yes. Will that make us a better team? No. If we can find a guy who is quite a bit better than by all means do so but I just don't know who that guy is. Maybe mcCarron? No idea.

 

I agree that Dalton is better than Geno, though our views are probably skewed by the whipping we gave the Jets in 2013. To paraphrase moneyball, if Dalton is such a good player, why doesn't he play good? Last year he was 19th in passer rating among player among players with 400 attempts and 26th among players with 200 attempts. That's not 12th-15th. When Austin Davis is thrown onto the field with less talent around him than Dalton and produces similarly, we're probably overrating Andy because he's a Bengal.

[|SF2|]

 

I agree that Dalton is better than Geno, though our views are probably skewed by the whipping we gave the Jets in 2013. To paraphrase moneyball, if Dalton is such a good player, why doesn't he play good? Last year he was 19th in passer rating among player among players with 400 attempts and 26th among players with 200 attempts. That's not 12th-15th. When Austin Davis is thrown onto the field with less talent around him than Dalton and produces similarly, we're probably overrating Andy because he's a Bengal.

All good points but I am probably in the minority here in thinking Hue Jackson is not a very good O Coordinator.  If he were, he wouldn't have had to crawl back here as a position coach after getting fired in Oakland.

[sparky151]

All good points but I am probably in the minority here in thinking Hue Jackson is not a very good O Coordinator.  If he were, he wouldn't have had to crawl back here as a position coach after getting fired in Oakland.

 

I think Hue took over with a determination to run the ball and a mandate from Marvin to do so. It takes pressure off Andy and can sometimes be effective in it's own right. A few years ago BJGE was outstanding in short yardage situations and we wanted that back with Hill. Hue doesn't have to be the most creative OC in the league, just run an efficient offense. We ran enough reverses and gadget plays to keep offenses honest. AJ is always a deep threat and Jones and Alford will probably be too. That makes defenses cover a lot of ground.

[|SF2|]

 

I think Hue took over with a determination to run the ball and a mandate from Marvin to do so. It takes pressure off Andy and can sometimes be effective in it's own right. A few years ago BJGE was outstanding in short yardage situations and we wanted that back with Hill. Hue doesn't have to be the most creative OC in the league, just run an efficient offense. We ran enough reverses and gadget plays to keep offenses honest. AJ is always a deep threat and Jones and Alford will probably be too. That makes defenses cover a lot of ground.

Well, the question then begs does taking what many consider a very talented offense and making them merely "effective" a success?   Is that really what we want from our offense?

 

I remember how "effective" the 2009 team was running the ball with a good defense.  We ran the ball for 171 yards on 22 carries and got our asses handed to us by the Jets in that playoff game.  146 passing yards didn't get it done.

 

Do you think a guy like Sean Peyton or Bill Bellicheat would settle for "effective" with the players we have on offense?  

 

This offense should scare the shit out of every d coordinator particularly with Hill and Gio in the back field and Eifert healthy.  This should be a top 5 offense if it stays healthy.   If Hue is being told to take the pressure off of his 5th year veteran QB (and I have no idea if that is the case) then we have a problem at THAT position.

[Khatmandude]

Let's list all the excuses we will give Dalton this year after he defecates his pants.  I'll start:

 

Give him until year 12 to REALLY judge him.   AJ's helmet strap wasn't on right.....let's give him a year where everyone's helmet straps are fastened properly, then and only then can we judge him.   Oline something something, Injuries something something.  

 

Who's next....

[sparky151]

Well, the question then begs does taking what many consider a very talented offense and making them merely "effective" a success?   Is that really what we want from our offense?

 

I remember how "effective" the 2009 team was running the ball with a good defense.  We ran the ball for 171 yards on 22 carries and got our asses handed to us by the Jets in that playoff game.  146 passing yards didn't get it done.

 

Do you think a guy like Sean Peyton or Bill Bellicheat would settle for "effective" with the players we have on offense?  

 

This offense should scare the shit out of every d coordinator particularly with Hill and Gio in the back field and Eifert healthy.  This should be a top 5 offense if it stays healthy.   If Hue is being told to take the pressure off of his 5th year veteran QB (and I have no idea if that is the case) then we have a problem at THAT position.

 

I think something like 250 passing yards and 125 rushing yards per game is feasible. If we averaged 375 ypg, that would have been 10th in the league last year. But we also face the NFCW and AFCN defenses so maybe that's optimistic. We were 15th overall last year with an average of 348 ypg. That was comprised of 213 ypg passing and 135 ypg rushing.

[fredtoast]

 

I agree that Dalton is better than Geno, though our views are probably skewed by the whipping we gave the Jets in 2013. To paraphrase moneyball, if Dalton is such a good player, why doesn't he play good? Last year he was 19th in passer rating among player among players with 400 attempts and 26th among players with 200 attempts. That's not 12th-15th. When Austin Davis is thrown onto the field with less talent around him than Dalton and produces similarly, we're probably overrating Andy because he's a Bengal.

 

Thes analysis is too simplistic.  Based on this logic Derek Anderson is a better QB than Manning, Brady, and Brees. When we judge Dalton on one season when most of his receivers were injured we're probably underrating Andy.  IN 2013 when Brady didn't have a healthy Gronkowski his numbers were worse than dalton's

 

When you look at his entire career it is pretty clear Andy is in that group of QBs clustered between about 10 and 18.  And those type of QBs are very hard to find.  That is why NFL teams pay them so much.  If they were easy to replace no team would be paying them $15 million a year.

[alleycat]

When you look at his entire career it is pretty clear Andy is in that group of QBs clustered between about 10 and 18.  And those type of QBs are very hard to find.  That is why NFL teams pay them so much.  If they were easy to replace no team would be paying them $15 million a year.

 

Just ask Ryan Tannehill.

[sparky151]

 

Thes analysis is too simplistic.  Based on this logic Derek Anderson is a better QB than Manning, Brady, and Brees. When we judge Dalton on one season when most of his receivers were injured we're probably underrating Andy.  IN 2013 when Brady didn't have a healthy Gronkowski his numbers were worse than dalton's

 

When you look at his entire career it is pretty clear Andy is in that group of QBs clustered between about 10 and 18.  And those type of QBs are very hard to find.  That is why NFL teams pay them so much.  If they were easy to replace no team would be paying them $15 million a year.

 

Derek Anderson was efficient last year but I didn't include him in the list of many players with better passer ratings than Dalton since he only had 97 attempts. His 105 rating is largely due to not throwing any interceptions while managing 5 TDs. Similarly Colt McCoy had a better rating than Dalton but only had 128 attempts so he was likewise excluded from the list of 25 QBs with at least 200 attempts and higher passer ratings than Andy. 

 

Sure Eifert was hurt early and Jones missed the season. But we had Gresham so it wasn't like the days of JP Foschi. Dalton was also backed up by the 6th ranked rushing attack. Injuries are part of football and good teams overcome them. We were 1-1-1 in the 3 games Green missed and should have been 2-1. Shouldn't Dalton be able in year 4 to manage a better TD/INT ratio than he did as a rookie? He had fewer attempts in 2014 than 2013 but still dropping from 33 TDs to 20 is worrisome. That drop is more than Marvin Jones had.

 

Dalton ranked 50th in the league in passer rating. The top of the list is dominated by low sample sizes with Sanu holding a perfect 158.3 rating on his 3 attempts (all completed). If we drop the attempts requirement to 100 attempts (about the equivalent of 3 starts) then Dalton trails more guys, including McCoy and Charlie Whitehurst. It's no mystery why Dalton's passer rating is low, he throws way too many interceptions. He had 17 interceptions last year against 19 TDs. The only players rated higher than Andy with as many or more interceptions were Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler, both with 18. But they had 31 and 28 TDs respectively. Andy's interception % was a career high 3.5% last year. More troubling, it's risen each year he's been in the NFL.

 

Dalton's best full season QB rating was 88.8 in 2013. That's about the same level as Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez, or Kyle Orton played at last year.

[scharm]

Bill Polian is one of the great roster builders in the NFL.

21 years with Bills and Colts - 2 Hall QBs, WRs, and Pass rushers. 6 AFC Championships. 1 NFC runner up.

1 Superbowl championship.


It does not shock me in the least bit that he would describe criticism of failure to win a championship as "absurd"

[HairOnFire]

Bill Polian is one of the great roster builders in the NFL.

21 years with Bills and Colts - 2 Hall QBs, WRs, and Pass rushers. 6 AFC Championships. 1 NFC runner up.

1 Superbowl championship.

 

 

But on the other hand, Jay Cutler.

[fredtoast]

 

Derek Anderson was efficient last year but I didn't include him in the list of many players with better passer ratings than Dalton since he only had 97 attempts. His 105 rating is largely due to not throwing any interceptions while managing 5 TDs. Similarly Colt McCoy had a better rating than Dalton but only had 128 attempts so he was likewise excluded from the list of 25 QBs with at least 200 attempts and higher passer ratings than Andy. 

 

Sure Eifert was hurt early and Jones missed the season. But we had Gresham so it wasn't like the days of JP Foschi. Dalton was also backed up by the 6th ranked rushing attack. Injuries are part of football and good teams overcome them. We were 1-1-1 in the 3 games Green missed and should have been 2-1. Shouldn't Dalton be able in year 4 to manage a better TD/INT ratio than he did as a rookie? He had fewer attempts in 2014 than 2013 but still dropping from 33 TDs to 20 is worrisome. That drop is more than Marvin Jones had.

 

Dalton ranked 50th in the league in passer rating. The top of the list is dominated by low sample sizes with Sanu holding a perfect 158.3 rating on his 3 attempts (all completed). If we drop the attempts requirement to 100 attempts (about the equivalent of 3 starts) then Dalton trails more guys, including McCoy and Charlie Whitehurst. It's no mystery why Dalton's passer rating is low, he throws way too many interceptions. He had 17 interceptions last year against 19 TDs. The only players rated higher than Andy with as many or more interceptions were Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler, both with 18. But they had 31 and 28 TDs respectively. Andy's interception % was a career high 3.5% last year. More troubling, it's risen each year he's been in the NFL.

 

Dalton's best full season QB rating was 88.8 in 2013. That's about the same level as Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez, or Kyle Orton played at last year.

 

Look up.  There is a point going over your head.

 

Let me repeat for you.  When you judge a QB based on one season when most of his receivers were injured then you undersestimate his ability.  You claim that injuries do not effect good QBs, yet you completely ignore the fact that last year when Tom Brady did not have a healthy Gronkowski he had a worse year than Dalton.

 

When you compare the CAREERS of the current QBs in the league you will find that Dalton is clearly in that group that is clustered between about 9 and 18.  And those type of QBs are very hard to find.  That is why NFL teams pay them so much money.

[sparky151]

 

Look up.  There is a point going over your head.

 

Let me repeat for you.  When you judge a QB based on one season when most of his receivers were injured then you undersestimate his ability.  You claim that injuries do not effect good QBs, yet you completely ignore the fact that last year when Tom Brady did not have a healthy Gronkowski he had a worse year than Dalton.

 

When you compare the CAREERS of the current QBs in the league you will find that Dalton is clearly in that group that is clustered between about 9 and 18.  And those type of QBs are very hard to find.  That is why NFL teams pay them so much money.

 

Oh boy. Sure Brady missed Gronk. He also missed Welker and Amendola that year while working in rookie receivers like Dobson and Thompkins. OchoCinco had problems picking up the Pats system too back in the day. Even then Brady managed more than twice as many TDs as picks, something Dalton has never done. 

 

Dalton raised his completion % from 61.9 in 2013 (his best overall season) to 64.2% last year. His YPA dropped a bit from 7.3 to 7.1 as he threw shorter passes. So why did his interception % go up? Most QBs throw fewer picks as they learn to read defenses. Dalton seems immune to that trend. As Alleycat has pointed out, Dalton is expected to get the ball out quickly and relies on pre-snap reads. He doesn't seem to be getting better at that and is vulnerable to deception as mentioned by a couple of recent opponents. 

 

If you want to rely on career ratings then I take it you want to replace Dalton with Matt Schaub or Matt Hasselbeck? The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of place but you apparently remember them at their peak. 

 

So what's your explanation for why Dalton throws so many interceptions?

[T-Dub]

Let's list all the excuses we will give Dalton this year after he defecates his pants.  I'll start:

 

Give him until year 12 to REALLY judge him.   AJ's helmet strap wasn't on right.....let's give him a year where everyone's helmet straps are fastened properly, then and only then can we judge him.   Oline something something, Injuries something something.  

 

Who's next....

 

That's an interesting way of looking at things.

 

 

How come AJ didn't have the most yards/TD's in the league?

 

Why didn't Newman lead the NFL in interceptions?

 

Why was Vinny Rey our leading tackler?

 

Why did our defense have the fewest sacks?

 

 

Point being; are the answers to any of those questions reasons, or are they also "excuses"?

[alleycat]

 

Oh boy. Sure Brady missed Gronk. He also missed Welker and Amendola that year while working in rookie receivers like Dobson and Thompkins. OchoCinco had problems picking up the Pats system too back in the day. Even then Brady managed more than twice as many TDs as picks, something Dalton has never done. 

 

Dalton raised his completion % from 61.9 in 2013 (his best overall season) to 64.2% last year. His YPA dropped a bit from 7.3 to 7.1 as he threw shorter passes. So why did his interception % go up? Most QBs throw fewer picks as they learn to read defenses. Dalton seems immune to that trend. As Alleycat has pointed out, Dalton is expected to get the ball out quickly and relies on pre-snap reads. He doesn't seem to be getting better at that and is vulnerable to deception as mentioned by a couple of recent opponents. 

 

If you want to rely on career ratings then I take it you want to replace Dalton with Matt Schaub or Matt Hasselbeck? The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of place but you apparently remember them at their peak. 

 

So what's your explanation for why Dalton throws so many interceptions?

 

You got part of my point but not all of it.  He does fine on pre-snap reads.  The problem isn't Dalton but the system (which is not to say Dalton isn't part of the problem (See below). 

 

Pre snap reads are fine in college ball where you have a bunch of kids who rely on their coaches to tell them what to do.  But in the pros, where every guy on the field has watched as much film as their coaches, you just can't win with a pre-snap reads, because you'll get teams doing exactly what they seem to do with us with troubling regularlity.  That is, they show a look, know based on film how our offense works and what our pre-snap reads will dictate, and then at the snap they change up their defensive alignment to attack at precisely that spot.  If you want to win against the best NFL teams, you have to rely on players winning individual battles and not solely on systems.  In this case that means you have to protect your QB and give him ample time to find the weakness in the coverage. We don't do that.  We force the ball.

 

And that's ONE reason for the added picks.

 

It's not statistical, but from the eyeball standpoint last year I think two things happened.

 

1) Dalton definitely got skittish, as he was regularly getting Teed off on in the pocket.

 

2) Dalton tried to do too much, which was in part in response to playing without his weapons, but is especially dangerous when the guys you are trying to force it do aren't the best at separation or winning contested balls, etc.

 

I'm not exhonerating Dalton. If you look above, he has two issues he needs to work on.  Getting skittish and not forcing.

 

Giving him an offensive scheme that better uses play-action and can give him longer time to pass than our woeful 2.2 seconds will go a long way to helping him.  Having a compliment of legit receivers will also help.

[sparky151]

I think it might be a matter of locking in on Green. AJ was targeted 116 times last year. I can't find the picks by intended receiver stats at the moment but if I remember correctly 8 of the 17 interceptions were on throws to AJ. That's another way of saying he stayed with his first read too long instead of looking for another receiver.

[Jamie_B]

 
The Ravens were 23rd in passing yards per game allowed last season. The Stealers were 27th. Both teams had injury problems at CB. Cleveland finished 8th, helped by the Dalton 2.0 game and their terrible rushing defense. Yet Dalton's numbers were down from the previous season, both in the bean counting stats and the efficiency stats. 

I had completely wiped that game from my memory.

2....a fucking 2

Ugh

[fredtoast]

 

 The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of place but you apparently remember them at their peak. 

 

 

 

No.  If the NFL was ONLY a "what have you done for me lately" kind of place then almost every great QB would have been benched in the middle of his prime when he had one poor season.

 

And Andy Dalton is only 27 years old and only one season removed from a 33 td, 4300 yard season.  He is no where near passed his prime.  And that one poor season happened to occurred when his receiving corps was decimated by injury.

 

People who understand how the NFL works get it.  

 

You clearly don't have a clue how this works. 

[|Bunghole|]

I am holding out hope that the Bengals can sign Hernandez and get him to play on Sundays as part of a generous work release program, his salary to be donated to the American Heart Association.