Pre-Free Agency Positional Analysis

[Jason]

Quarterback: Free Agents: None

Andy Dalton had a breakout year before getting hurt and is locked up long term.  AJ McCarron played about as well as you could want from a backup QB.  If someone were to offer a second round pick in trade it would have to be considered, but when you have a good backup QB you keep him as long as you can afford him.  They also have Wenning.  

Conclusion: No Need

Running Back: Free Agents: None

Despite the outrage and calls for the axe of some on here, Jeremy Hill isn't going anywhere.  He needs to get back to his rookie year power, and improve the ball security, but he has the talent to be a top back in the League.  Go Bernard is is a great compliment to Hill, and can be a #1 back if used properly.  Rex Burkhead makes plays when called upon and is a valuable 3rd back.  However, they lost 2 young backs on the PS that they really liked, and Gio is up after 2016.

Conclusion: Possible late round pick

Full Back/H-Back: Free Agents: None

The Bengals like Ryan Hewitt a lot, and he can also play TE if needed.  Jake Fisher probably won't be starting at OT in 2016 (barring injury) and as he demonstrated last year can play back there in a pinch if needed.

Conclusion: No Need

Wide Receiver: Free Agents: Marvin Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Brandon Tate

AJ is locked up.  But every other receiver who they relied on this season is a free agent.  The only guy left on the roster with any experience is James Wright who did show flashes in limited time in 2014.  The Bengals have cap room, but how much would they be willing to pay a 3rd target at best?  My best guess is someone will pay Marvin more than the Bengals would be willing to, but Sanu will be back.  Brandon Tate won't win any popularity contests on this board, but the Bengals like his reliability as a returner.  If they are not comfortable with Alford's development as a returner, I won't be surprised at all if Tate is brought back.

Conclusion: Likely a 2nd or 3rd round need.

Tight End: Free Agents: None

Eifert is becoming one of the best TEs in the league.  Kroft is good enough that he could be a starter for a lot of teams.  Uzomah is a diamond in the rough.  I think this could be one of the most talented TE groups in the league.With the added depth of Hewitt and Fisher.

Conclusion: No Need

Offensive Tackle: Free Agents: Andre Smith, Eric Winston

After drafting 2 OTs last year Andre Smith is gone, and likely to net us a 4th or 5th round comp pick.  The question is whether or not Winston retires.  Whit will start at LT, Ced at RT, and Fisher the first T off the bench and able to step in on either side in case of injury. They also have Daryl Baldwin for added depth.

Conclusion: No need, but possible late round pick if Winston retires.

Guard: Free Agents: None

Clint Boling is a quality athletic LG capable of pulling or getting to the second level.  And he is signed long term.  Heitler is a quality RG, but will be at the end of his contract and playing on the option year.  Extending him would make good financial sense.  Trey Hopkins provides some depth, as does Fisher.I would like to see them add a stout big body OG in the mold of a Mike Iupati, but I have my doubts.

Conclusion: No Need

Center: Free Agents: TJ Johnson (ERFA)

Bodine is under contract and Johnson is ours if we want him.  Personally I would like to see Bodine upgraded and become the backup, but I doubt the coaches agree.

Conclusion: Status Quo.

Kicker: Free Agents: None

Nugent is almost as popular on this board as Brandon Tate.  But he is under contract and the Bengals tend to honor contracts.  Nugget could be upgraded, but rookie kickers have a history of being unreliable too.  

Conclusion: They won't spend a draft pick, but I could see a CFA brought in to compete.

Punter: Free Agents: None

Kevin Huber is one of the better punters in the NFL and he is locked up.  They might bring in a camp leg to give him a break and audition in case of injury, but there isn't a "need".

Conclusion: No need.

Returner: Free Agents: Brandon Tate, Adam Jones

Both our top 2 return men are free agents.  Will Alford develop enough to replace either?  Will Tate and Jones be back?  (I think both will.)

Conclusion: I don't think they will draft anyone as a returner, but I do think they draft a WR and CB at some point and if either of those guys has return ability it will be a bonus.

Defensive End: Free Agents: Wallace Gilberry

Dunlap and Johnson are locked up.  Hunt and Clarke are also signed through 2017 and 2018 respectively.  They like Gilberry and I think it's likely they re-sign him.  They won't draft out of need, but a late round pick if they do lose Gilberry is a possibility.  A BPA pick wouldn't surprise me, especially if he's a hybrid that could also play SLB.  But with the money tied up in Dunlap and Johnson would they add first round money into the pot?

Conclusion: Possible late need or BPA pick at any point after 1.

Defensive Tackle: Free Agents: Brandon Thompson, Pat Sims

Between Geno, Harrison, and Williams, they are set at 3T.  NT is another story.  Free agents and an aging Peko, who is up in 2017, and NT is definitely a need.  I do think either Sims or Thompson will be back. They don't have a history of first round DTs, but this is a deep DT class with some good NT prospects.

Conclusion: I think they take a NT type in the first 4 rounds.

Linebacker: Free Agents: Vincent Rey, Emmanuel Lamur

With the available cap room I think they could bring both of these guys back.  Vinnie Rey is a core Teams guys I think he will be re-signed.  He is also the second best coverage LB right now.  Two of the 3 starters are set with Burfict and Maualuga.  The other spot will be between Dawson and Hawk.  Personally I would like to see them add another playmaker with either coverage or pass rush ability early, but will the Bengals see it that way?

Conclusion: I don't think they will see it as a need, but I think they might take one after the first 3 rounds if he is BPA.  A swingman SLB/DE might tempt them in the first few rounds though.

Cornerback: Free Agents: Adam Jones, Leon Hall

Adam Jones was their best CB.  He is also a great returner.  Dennard showed promise.  Dre K was not impressive, but he holds his own against bigger WRs.I think Hall had a good career here, but with his age, and 2 torn tendons in his past, and Dennard waiting in the wings I think it's time to move on.  Shaw showed some promise.

Conclusion: I think there is a really good chance they go here in 1 again if there is a guy there worth the pick. Early need.

Safety: Free Agents: Reggie Nelson, George Iloka

Reggie Nelson is coming off his best season.  But he is over 30.  Iloka is one of the most underrated players league wide.  He had an off year due to injury, but when healthy he is one of the best safeties in the league.  They also have Derron Smith and Shawn Williams on the bench.  If for no other reason than continuity I think they need to bring one of the free agents back.  I think they will, the question is which one?  Both isn't out of the question if Nelson comes back for reasonable money, and they could tag Iloka.  

Conclusion: Possible mid round need.

Summary:

1 - CB, BPA (except QB or OT)

2 - Add WR and DT

3 - Add Safety

4 - Add LB and DE

5 - Add OL

6 - Add RB

7 - Anything but punter or long snapper

[PatternMaster]

Good write up, I agree and disagree with some of your assessments on the needs of the Bengals.

- I think that RB is a need as Hill has shown that he has ball security issues and he's regressing as far as is level of play is concerned. He's still a good back and has the tools to be a very productive back but I would say he's at the cross roads of his career and I would hope we will have someone else on the roster that can replace him if he continues to regress.

- I think WR is a huge need as I can see a scenario in which Sanu and Jones leave via FA, I think it's pretty much safe to say that Jones is gone and depending on how much Sanu gets offered in FA he could be gone as well. Hopefully we resign one, Sanu being the more likely of the two. If not I would like to see this position address aggressively in FA and the draft.

- Same for the secondary, I can see Pacman, Nelson, and Iloka all leaving via FA. Reportedly the contract talks between the Bengals and Iloka have hit a stalemate, so I can definitely see him testing the FA waters and depending on the offers he could easily be gone. Nelson is going to go to the highest bidder as this is his last chance to get a big time pay day, would be nice to have him back but I don't see it happening. Pacman is also looking for his last big contract a teams that go for fences in FA could be interested in this troubled but talented player. I've heard he likes it here in Cincy and he's very loyal to the Bengals front office and coaches for giving him a shot when nobody would do so maybe he will be back. It's reported that the Bengals have him ranked him as a priority, so we will see how much gets from other teams...should be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few months. Leon Hall could be back on a team friendly deal and finish his career with the same team, a very rare feat these days. Hall could also move to safety as he is physical enough to make the transition. I agree that the secondary will be address early in the draft. 

Overall I think that the 2016 Bengals will be a vastly different team with new starters at OT, WR, DT, LB, CB, and S. Hopefully the young guys are ready to take the next step because I don't expect the Bengals to be big players in FA and I can see many of our FA taking big money deals with other teams.  

[Jason]

With $36M in cap room I think they will be able to retain most of the free agents they target.  But....

How far are they willing to go in a bidding war for their #3 target (Marvin) against a team who might see him as a potential #1? I think Marvin will be the first priority over Sanu, but if Marvin leaves I think they make a more concerted effort to retain Sanu.

Will the play of Shawn Williams make it easier for them to let Iloka walk?  

Age will be a factor in the size and length of the contracts they offer Adam, Leon, and Reggie, so if another team offers them longer contracts that might make them harder to keep.  But I have a hard time imagining all of those guys leave.  They have it good here, and they know they will be treated fairly.

I will do another assessment once free agency has wound down, but I am projecting we keep a few of our own.  Once we know, we can better assess the draft.

[bengaled]

 

Defensive End: Free Agents: Wallace Gilberry

Dunlap and Johnson are locked up.  Hunt and Clarke are also signed through 2017 and 2018 respectively.  They like Gilberry and I think it's likely they re-sign him.  They won't draft out of need, but a late round pick if they do lose Gilberry is a possibility.  A BPA pick wouldn't surprise me, especially if he's a hybrid that could also play SLB.  But with the money tied up in Dunlap and Johnson would they add first round money into the pot?

Conlusion: Possible late need or BPA pick at any point after 1.

 i'd let gillberry walk rather than reinvesting more dollars, and more importantly, years toward being stuck with him. i appreciate his service, but i think it's time to move on...he's done. i'd make finding a legitimate RDE at the top of my drafting list. every starter and reserve we have 

at that position sucks.

[happyrid]

 i'd let gillberry walk rather than reinvesting more dollars, and more importantly, years toward being stuck with him. i appreciate his service, but i think it's time to move on...he's done. i'd make finding a legitimate RDE at the top of my drafting list. every starter and reserve we have 

at that position sucks.

Michael Johnson doesn't suck. 

[happyrid]

Great write-up Jason. Agree with almost all of it. 

The one thing I'd add is that if history is any indicator, this draft will also be largely about next year's FA class and not just filling 2016 holes. Even if we keep one of our starting Safeties to go along with Williams, Williams is also set to hit FA next spring. Same with CB. Even if we keep Jones, Kirkpatrick is slated to hit FA next spring. On OL, Zeitler is in his final year and I'm not sure they'll want to use big money on an OG. Relatively early picks on any of those positions wouldn't be exciting, but that's kind of how the Bengals have operated lately. 

My guesses as far as the draft...

On offense, we lock up Marvin Jones in FA. We use three picks on offense in the 3rd to 6th round range. We grab a small slot WR/Return man, a big developmental outside WR and an OG for depth and 2017 insurance should Zeitler depart.

On defense, I think we keep Jones, Rey and Nelson. If Darron Lee or Jaylon Smith don't fall to 24, I think we grab a CB in the first round. I expect a big DT or a Safety in the 2nd round. 

 

[bengaled]

Michael Johnson doesn't suck. 

huge, huge difference of opinion.