War in Ukraine

[T-Dub]

So as not to derail the 10/7 thread, with parallels noted.  Surprised I can't find an older topic.

 

My question was what Putin might do if the counterattack in Kursk gains momentum.  IDK what his red line might be - UKR forces are still 80-100km from Kursk, city of - but I have to think he has one in mind.  Oddly, being on Russian territory makes something unconventional seem more likely.

 

 

 

 

[Homer_Rice]

It won't.

 

What is Ukraine’s goal in the Battle for Kursk?

Kursk raid will not shift war in Ukraine’s favour

Ukraine SitRep: Kursk Campaign Designed To Keep War Going

 

The Russian government has shown remarkable restraint throughout this whole business. Despite what propagandists would have us think, Putin is the moderate man, keeping the hard-liners like Medvedev in check. It wasn't the Russians who unilaterally withdrew from non-conventional agreements. But some government did.

[Homer_Rice]

Before you ask:

 

Remarks Announcing the United States Withdrawal From the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty

 

U.S. Withdraws From Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

 

Another fucking stupid policy blunder by the U.S.? (my thought.)

 

The U.S. Exit From the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Has Fueled a New Arms Race

[T-Dub]

8 hours ago, Homer_Rice said:

It won't.

 

What is Ukraine’s goal in the Battle for Kursk?

Kursk raid will not shift war in Ukraine’s favour

Ukraine SitRep: Kursk Campaign Designed To Keep War Going

 

The Russian government has shown remarkable restraint throughout this whole business. Despite what propagandists would have us think, Putin is the moderate man, keeping the hard-liners like Medvedev in check. It wasn't the Russians who unilaterally withdrew from non-conventional agreements. But some government did.

 

That Xit (since they aren't tweets anymore after all) reads like Ukraine is on the ropes and getting pummeled. That is not the impression I get from any other sources. Everything I am seeing suggests a war of attrition that is becoming less convential as the front lines stagnate.

 

Are you saying that line of control as mapped everywhere is false? That the Russians exercised "great restraint" in Bucha & aren't deliberately targeting civilian housing and infrastructure with their missile swarm attacks? (eg hospitals, not the electric grid etc which I consider valid targets even aside from our "shock & awe" tactics in Iraq) They didn't essentially kidnap thousands of children? 

 

I can believe this Kursk raid is meant to be punitive and has no direct military purpose beyond distraction. That aside, last reports I saw had them continuing to advance & if they're really massacring civilians indiscriminately that would recommend strong measures to put a stop to it.

 

Either way I have a hard time believing this is some minor annoyance that Russia chooses to ignore out of humanitarian concerns. You think Putin would negotiate if it does turn into another mass hostage situation?

 

Trying to meet you halfway here but more than a little skeptical of a "Russians With Attitude" Xitter account.

[Homer_Rice]

You are a smart guy but you are apparently myopic on this subject. You need to do a better job of evaluating your sources and perhaps broaden your input a bit.

 

Enjoy the game!

[T-Dub]

On 8/10/2024 at 3:36 PM, Homer_Rice said:

You are a smart guy but you are apparently myopic on this subject. You need to do a better job of evaluating your sources and perhaps broaden your input a bit.

 

Enjoy the game!

 

Sources.. 

 

I've been following this aggregator since the war began:  https://www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs

 

There's a lot of noise but it paints a picture overall.  Definitely a lot of propaganda, some of it from official sources and some random as hell.  The crowdsourced stuff, I figure if 5 different people have mutually consistent cellphone footage of, eg, missiles hitting an airfield and shit blowing up then it probably happened. The UK MoD assessments are biased of course but to me seem sober & definitely not overly optimistic.  Lots of updates as to the types of aid being sent, in what amount or value.  Couple of live maps using geolocated photos, publicly available satellite info or the like.  Some of this gets linked to things like www.flightradar24.com - for example you can watch airport operations at Chisinau in Moldova or sometimes catch a Global Hawk squawking as it transits the area around Istanbul before going dark over the Black Sea.  (Pretty fun website in general, that.  Watched a group of V-22's come out of some NAS or IDK what near San Diego - not Miranmar from the looks of it - then link up with a Blackhawk out of Huachuca or thereabouts & disappear into Baja.  Wouldn't you like to know!)

 

 So not a lot of policy or analysis in general.  I figure everyone has an axe to grind.  When you accuse me of being myopic for not trusting the upstanding humanitarian Vladimir Putin (!) or the veracity of a single, anonymous, unabashedly pro-Russian Xitter account, making claims that seem at odds with literally everything else I've seen or read down to the photos of the dead lining the streets of Bucha...  Well yeah, it does rankle a bit, honestly.  Was all that AI or what do you think we're seeing?

 

I really do appreciate the background on NATO & post-unification Germany, though.  Good stuff.  I'm still having a hard time thinking Putin was just minding his own business until the ISW flunkies (no love for that bunch) cocked things up for us.  They do, and did, but I don't think that happened in a vacuum or was necessarily the singular event that put a match to everything.

 

Let me ask you this: how do you think it ends?

 

 

 

[Homer_Rice]

On 8/11/2024 at 10:53 PM, T-Dub said:

So not a lot of policy or analysis in general.  I figure everyone has an axe to grind.  When you accuse me of being myopic for not trusting the upstanding humanitarian Vladimir Putin (!) or the veracity of a single, anonymous, unabashedly pro-Russian Xitter account, making claims that seem at odds with literally everything else I've seen or read down to the photos of the dead lining the streets of Bucha...  Well yeah, it does rankle a bit, honestly.  Was all that AI or what do you think we're seeing?

Way back when, I took a seminar in Rationalist/Continental philosophy. A couple of times that year, the prof would pass out some cutup sheets of paper to our small class of a about ten people, and then ask a question. Stuff like, "What does Descartes mean by a 'clear and distinct idea?'" or "Jot down your thoughts on the concept of innate ideas." We'd do that, then take a few minutes discussing what we wrote. Then the prof would say something along the lines of "Good start. Now, ball up your paper and throw it at the trash can." And we would. Then, he would hand out more paper and we'd have another go at the same question again. And again. All of this was in fun, but serious, but in fun, but serious and by the end of the session we weren't throwing our little balls of paper at the trashcan, we were throwing them at the professor. Kind of a crude, playful exploration of the platonic method in action.

 

Many years later, in a different educational setting, I'm having a nice discussion with a Marxist historian about dialectics. Being a Marxist, he kept arguing for the Hegelian/Marxian notion of dialectics along the lines of that tiresome old "Thesis, Antithesis, Synthesis" model. I was arguing that the the concept of dialectics was more nuanced, more powerful when one adopted the classical method of Socrates and Plato. There's a difference between the former, reductive approach and the latter, more forgiving (and actually more reflective of the actual universe) approach which seeks to constantly peel away the layers of an idea, a concept, an analysis.

 

[Homer_Rice]

Lets go at this another way. Same basic notion, but a different approach.

 

What is an important primary methodological difference between an historian and an intelligence operative? The former has a tendency to gather all the material, then draw conclusions while the latter operates in a fluid environment, making provisional assessments and decisions based on what they know in that present, unfinished moment.

 

One ought choose the best approach given the circumstances and the goal of whatever the project at hand might be. It's best to have both methods of approach in one's toolbox.

[Homer_Rice]

Let's get to the heart of the matter. I'll requote:

 

On 8/11/2024 at 10:53 PM, T-Dub said:

So not a lot of policy or analysis in general.  I figure everyone has an axe to grind.  When you accuse me of being myopic for not trusting the upstanding humanitarian Vladimir Putin (!) or the veracity of a single, anonymous, unabashedly pro-Russian Xitter account, making claims that seem at odds with literally everything else I've seen or read down to the photos of the dead lining the streets of Bucha...  Well yeah, it does rankle a bit, honestly.  Was all that AI or what do you think we're seeing?

I'll be plain. Knock off the bullshit. Both you and I (and anyone else reading this) knows that I made no such accusation at all. I simply said that you are myopic for not having a broader set of inputs to help you with your judgments. You shit on Mearsheimer and then tout Reddit, a fucking cesspool if there ever was one? Prove my point, why don't you.

 

Your epistemological precepts are yours and yours alone. As mine are mine. I've spent a lot of time and effort over the past 45 years explicitly working on developing and refining my outlook on the world. I'm not going to allow you to twist my thoughts into some reductive-fantasy spinning in your mind.

 

Learn to think better.

[T-Dub]

My mistake, I suppose I am confused as you seemed to me to be asserting that:

 

1. NATO forced Putin's hand - this I'm willing to consider even though his actions towards other former satellite nations would seem to indicate that he has (or had) his own designs on reunification.  Maybe not officially, but with governments under his control and heavily dependent on Russia.  Something like our own policy in Latin America, more or less.

 

2.  Putin has shown great restraint.  In what way, by not nuking Kyiv? I'm trying to understand what it is he's not doing.  There was a lot of talk in the early days of the invasion about Estonia, Latvia, Georgia (again), or Azerbaijan being next on his list.  There were also claims of Moldova being in the crosshairs.  I've yet to see any real evidence of this but the parallels between Transnistria, South Ossetia/Abkhazia, & Donetsk are apparent.  Georgia in particular seems a likely blueprint for the long term, or at least one possible outcome.  Still curious as to your best guess at how this turns out?

 

3. That the Ukrainian forces in Kursk are slaughtering civilians & intend to take a large number of them hostage.  Yet to see any evidence of this aside from - again - a Xitter account called "RussiansWithAttitude" making these claims.  You want to talk about Reddit being a "cesspool"? That link I provided is, again, an aggregator. It's not a Reddit thread (though how Xitter is in any sense superior IDK).  I assume you know what I mean by that, but you seem to be ignoring that the information therein (mostly from Xitter accounts FWIW) is not just random Redditors posting whatever shit comes to mind.  As I said, it's a wide range of sources to include the Brit MoD, various mainstream news outlets, press releases from different governments that are providing aid, regional NGO's, crowdsourced maps, media posted by combatants & civilians from both side - all sorts of things. I don't understand dismissing it based on the URL when so far a Xitter account is the single source you've provided.

 

Attack my ability to think, we can talk about Plato or Hegel or how many angels can dance on the head of a pin but I am honestly seeking a better understanding of the topic at hand - the current war in Ukraine.  I'm able to adjust my views on the issue but I'm not going to do that based on your vague philosophical criticism of my thought process.

 

 

[T-Dub]

Here's a interesting source on the Kursk invasion:  Google Maps. 

 

They're continually updating road closures on the R200.  You can select the H07/R200 border crossing on one end & Kursk on the other. Over the past few days different sections have been marked closed & the directions rerouted around it as the fighting moves north..  As of now these closures have moved just north of Martynovka, putting them within 100km of Kursk. 

 

There are satellite photos of what appear to be trenches being dug along said highway closer to Kursk.  While I agree Ukraine is unlikely to reach the city, the possibility of escalation increases the closer they get.  I think we're going to find out just how much restraint Putin has if that threat materializes.

 

Also have to mention that this is why crowdsourced & aggregate utilities are preferable to me.  For example, the idea that Ukrainian soldiers are massacring civilians as they go and not a single cellphone photo or video has escaped seems entirely implausible.  The amount of real-time, direct information available is staggering. During the Russian invasion there were videos of them firing on civilian vehicles and pedestrians within hours.  Every other individual is a news camera these days, we don't really need some dude in a suit & tie to read off a teleprompter describing that same video a week later while a blurred version plays on a green screen behind him.

[claptonrocks]

On 8/16/2024 at 3:55 PM, T-Dub said:

Here's a interesting source on the Kursk invasion:  Google Maps. 

 

They're continually updating road closures on the R200.  You can select the H07/R200 border crossing on one end & Kursk on the other. Over the past few days different sections have been marked closed & the directions rerouted around it as the fighting moves north..  As of now these closures have moved just north of Martynovka, putting them within 100km of Kursk. 

 

There are satellite photos of what appear to be trenches being dug along said highway closer to Kursk.  While I agree Ukraine is unlikely to reach the city, the possibility of escalation increases the closer they get.  I think we're going to find out just how much restraint Putin has if that threat materializes.

 

Also have to mention that this is why crowdsourced & aggregate utilities are preferable to me.  For example, the idea that Ukrainian soldiers are massacring civilians as they go and not a single cellphone photo or video has escaped seems entirely implausible.  The amount of real-time, direct information available is staggering. During the Russian invasion there were videos of them firing on civilian vehicles and pedestrians within hours.  Every other individual is a news camera these days, we don't really need some dude in a suit & tie to read off a teleprompter describing that same video a week later while a blurred version plays on a green screen behind him.

If it doesn't suit you it's all shit and stupidity.

Are you ever wrong?.. 

 

[T-Dub]

13 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

If it doesn't suit you it's all shit and stupidity.

Are you ever wrong?.. 

 

 

Simmer down, the adults are talking.

[Homer_Rice]

Just reread this thread. I stand by what I have said. I prefer my methodology to yours. I'm well read on geopolitics in general, on NATO out-of-area deployments, too, the which I protested back when that asshole Clinton pushed our way into the Balkans. I've suggested a couple of approaches which apparently do not have any appeal for you (which is fine.) I not only lived through the Cold War, but I served during a small part of it. Watching Soviet trawlers with a gazillion antennae zip around while we were playing war games is one of the sources for my curiosity all these decades.

 

I'm sorry if it bothers you that I think you are being myopic and that you need to develop a better approach to understanding just what is going on. My apologies if I offended you.

 

Yet, again, I strongly suggest that you develop a bit more depth and breadth in your reading. Find some experts, learn to sift for bias, and develop a more comprehensive understanding, which is your stated wish.

 

Good luck in your venture.

[T-Dub]

4 hours ago, Homer_Rice said:

Just reread this thread. I stand by what I have said. I prefer my methodology to yours. I'm well read on geopolitics in general, on NATO out-of-area deployments, too, the which I protested back when that asshole Clinton pushed our way into the Balkans. I've suggested a couple of approaches which apparently do not have any appeal for you (which is fine.) I not only lived through the Cold War, but I served during a small part of it. Watching Soviet trawlers with a gazillion antennae zip around while we were playing war games is one of the sources for my curiosity all these decades.

 

I'm sorry if it bothers you that I think you are being myopic and that you need to develop a better approach to understanding just what is going on. My apologies if I offended you.

 

Yet, again, I strongly suggest that you develop a bit more depth and breadth in your reading. Find some experts, learn to sift for bias, and develop a more comprehensive understanding, which is your stated wish.

 

Good luck in your venture.

 

 

All good man, respect.  I think I am looking for specifics or really any source with a fundamentally different take on things with something to back it up.  I don't see this as good vs evil or anything of the sort.

 

I don't know if you're following this but my feeling is the Nord Stream sabotage was important & I think the conflict has a lot more to do with controlling energy markets than either of them want to admit.  Really odd choice of words from the Poles and equally odd for Germany to be making such an accusation.   It's starting to remind me of how the western US talks about neighboring states & water rights.

 

https://apnews.com/article/poland-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-tusk-russia-46ca2fb3f287570820564d1d5b6a8e29

[Homer_Rice]

Good opportunity to put your sleuthing skills to work.

 

What did Condaleezi Rice say in 2014?

 

Biden on NordStream before the war began?

 

What did Seymour Hersh say?

 

Why would the Germans say this Now?

 

Why would the Polish rep tell folks in the know to shut up?

 

Not to mention, does the German government really think that people are so stupid to think that 3 drunks on a yacht filled full of explosives actually did this?

[T-Dub]

8 hours ago, Homer_Rice said:

 

 

Not to mention, does the German government really think that people are so stupid to think that 3 drunks on a yacht filled full of explosives actually did this?

 

 

Working from the bottom but I seriously doubt some kooks were out there dropping pipe bomb depth charges.  At the time they reported a single explosion and then said there was a Russian nuclear sub "in the area".  I'm sure you know both theirs and our SF will deploy from subs, sometimes while pretty deep underwater.  They later reported there were 3 different explosions recorded at the same time many hours after the first & at 3 different locations on both NS lines.  That kind of precision timing would indicate a pro job to me.

 

I'll keep digging for sure but my hunch is it was us, either divers or a remote device.  Of course the yacht dudes could've been assisting somehow, providing cover or whatever.

 

[Homer_Rice]

Not gonna get very far until you start asking the question, "Why?"

 

 

 

Good book to get:

 

 

[T-Dub]

On 8/20/2024 at 7:30 AM, Homer_Rice said:

Not gonna get very far until you start asking the question, "Why?"

 

 

 

Good book to get:

 

 

 

noticed they weren't pumping at the time. thought it seemed pretty reckless.  not that we'd necessarily let a little gas leak stop us but the locals would've been a lot more worked up about it if they were operating.

 

now i'm wondering whether any LNG reserves were released at the time or what other market manipulation went along with it.

[T-Dub]

Russian roadblocks reportedly going up around Kurchatov, home to the nuclear reactor that supplies Kursk.  It's ~50km from the city.

[Homer_Rice]

Free Speech on the Internet: The Crisis of Epistemic Authority

[Homer_Rice]

When I listen to podcasts, I generally have them on in the background while I attend to other tasks. That's how I began listening to this one. However, very early on I realized that this was one well worth listening to completely and with undivided attention. As mentioned towards the end, it's really good commentary on "how the sausage is made."

 

If you want a lot of inside info on stuff ranging from Iraq to our current geopolitical conundrums, then listen to these two insiders. It's worth the hour of your attention.

 

 

[Homer_Rice]

Okay, this really made me laugh. In a sad way. But, still, funny.

 

[T-Dub]

5 hours ago, Homer_Rice said:

Okay, this really made me laugh. In a sad way. But, still, funny.

 

 

There's a video going around that's supposed to be a Russian soldier working with NK troops sharing a tin of their dog meat C-rations.  That one cracked me up.

 

Beyond that though lots of SIGINT claiming to be RU complaining about language barriers & such, Ukraine claims to have NK POWs but I just saw some footage of a wounded Asian dude that could've been from anywhere.  The South Koreans sure seem to think there are Northern troops in theater.

 

I'm unconvinced but Ukraine obviously wants everyone to think so, which is odd given how little their allies other than SK seem to give a shit.

 

[T-Dub]