Draft Success

[oftt4]

A couple of threads in the other forum brought up the topic of draft success, more specifically that the Bengals draft "almost" as well as the Steelers, and I said I would come up with some way to compare them with more than just the first round. So, here it is....

I graded picks from 2000-2006 as follows (I attempted to take all subjectivity out of it, and I went with what PFR said):

5 points Hall of Famer (obviously there arent any since 2000)
4 points Multiple ProBowl selection, All-Pro selection, Some kind of NFL award* (DPOY, OPOY, ROY, MVP, etc)
3 points Pro Bowl (at least once), regular starter
2 points Regular Starter within 3 years, no Probowls, no NFL awards
1 point Role Player, career backup, special teamer
0 points Out of the league within 3-5 years or otherwise anonymous

*Player can get awards with any team, not just the team that drafted them

I broke the score out into round "GPA's", and the results are:

[u][b]Round 1[/b][/u]
Steelers: 3.14
Ravens: 2.88
Colts: 2.83
Patriots: 2.43
Cardinals: 2.25
Browns: 2.00
Bengals: 1.86


[u][b]Round 2[/b][/u]
Colts: 2.14
Steelers: 2.00
Bengals: 1.88
Cardinals: 1.88
Patriots: 1.71
Ravens: 1.67
Browns: 1.57


[u][b]Round 3[/b][/u]
Cardinals: 1.89
Steelers: 1.29
Patriots: 1.00
Ravens: 1.00
Colts: 0.88
Bengals: 0.75
Browns: 0.57


[u][b]Round 4[/b][/u]
Ravens: 1.38
Bengals: 1.20
Patriots: 1.08
Steelers: 1.00
Colts: 1.00
Cardinals: 0.86
Browns: 0.73


[u][b]Round 5+[/b][/u]
Ravens: 0.74
Colts: 0.73
Bengals: 0.59
Cardinals: 0.52
Patriots: 0.41
Steelers: 0.41
Browns: 0.36


I might add more teams as the offseason progresses, and as I get bored again, if there is a particular team you are curious about let me know and I will do them first. Or if you want to know how I ranked a particular player or draft, feel free to ask.

I posted it here because I figure some would consider it "trash talking", but I was legitimately curious.

4/1 - added the Patriots, and sorted each round high to low

[oftt4]

Added the Ravens.

[oftt4]

Added the Browns.

Congrats. You guys generally draft better than Cleveland.

[JBandJoeyV]

Hmm we were pretty good in the 2-5th+ rounds, besides the 3rd, but arent very good with first round picks.

Then again, Pollack and Perry were 2 of those 7 picks and injuries killed them.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='CJandRudiJ' post='761606' date='Apr 6 2009, 03:21 PM']Hmm we were pretty good in the 2-5th+ rounds, besides the 3rd, but arent very good with first round picks.

Then again, Pollack and Perry were 2 of those 7 picks and injuries killed them.[/quote]


Pollack and Perry certinaly are curve killers arent they?

[sois]

Good work man, this is nice data mining.

[oftt4]

Added the Colts, and they took over first place in the second round.

[oftt4]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='761616' date='Apr 6 2009, 03:50 PM']Pollack and Perry certinaly are curve killers arent they?[/quote]


They certainly didnt help the grade, but like I said...I am only going by results, not potential. No opinions.

I have your first rounders ranked as follows:

Joseph - 2
Pollack -0
Perry - 1
Palmer - 4
Jones - 2
Smith - 2
Warrick - 2

You have gotten some solid starters, but other that Palmer you havent had any stand-out first rounders.

[Jamie_B]

Curious, are you counting PBs no alernates, as I believe Jones was a pro-bowl alternate in 06

[oftt4]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='761878' date='Apr 7 2009, 02:28 PM']Curious, are you counting PBs no alernates, as I believe Jones was a pro-bowl alternate in 06[/quote]


[url="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneLe23.htm"]http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneLe23.htm[/url]

I am using PFR and he isnt listed as having gone to a ProBowl. If he did, then I can update it.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='oftt4' post='761903' date='Apr 7 2009, 03:28 PM'][url="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneLe23.htm"]http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneLe23.htm[/url]

I am using PFR and he isnt listed as having gone to a ProBowl. If he did, then I can update it.[/quote]


He didnt go, he was selected as the 1st alternate behind Ogdon and Roaf in 06.

Perhaps a .5, system?? (Stienbech was a alternate as well if I remember right)

[oftt4]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='761935' date='Apr 7 2009, 05:42 PM']He didnt go, he was selected as the 1st alternate behind Ogdon and Roaf in 06.

Perhaps a .5, system?? (Stienbech was a alternate as well if I remember right)[/quote]


I dont think so. I would have to find out the alternates for every year (which I dont think is listed anywhere easy to find), then that would bring up whether only 1st alternates (not 2nd, 3rd) should get .5, then that would bring up whether injury replacements should also only count .5, then that would bring up other things and other things...and to be perfectly honest with you, that is significantly more effort that I want to put into this.

It is much much easier to just say ProBowl or No ProBowl.

It isnt a perfect system (mostly because ProBowl selection is pretty useless), and there are some players who arguably should have higher ratings (Heath Miller gets a 2 for Pittsburgh, when I think he should be higher), but at least it is a level playing board.

[Jamie_B]

Thats fine whatever, I was just disagreeing with the statement "but other that Palmer you havent had any stand-out first rounders."

Even if alternate, Jones (before his recent battle with injuries) was a stand out Olinemen.

[oftt4]

Added the Cardinals today.

They have the best 3rd round grade by far of all the teams I have done. About average everywhere else.

They would have graded out much higher if it wasnt for 2002, which was easily the worst draft I have reviewed to date. Josh McCown and Josh Scobey were the highlights of that draft, their 1st, 2nd, 3rd (second one), 4th, and 5th rounders were complete busts...pretty pathetic.

Which was strange, really, because that followed their 2001 draft which is one of the best drafts I have reviewed to date...Leonard Davis, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Adrian Wilson (all multiple pro-bowlers), a regular starter in Renaldo Hill, and two role players...pretty damned impressive.

[Jamie_B]

Appears someone else already ran with your idea.

[url="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/04/draft-success-by-team.html"]http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/04/dr...ss-by-team.html[/url]

[PutWittyNameHere]

I've seen a couple of similar listing over the past few weeks attempting to rank teams' drafting success by number of starts the player has made for that team, number of years played, etc, etc.

My problem with it is this: Aren't those numbers extremely relative to each team? For example, the Detroit Lions went 0-16 last year. Wouldn't a rookie have a much better chance at earning a starting spot right away for a team like the Lions who have very little talent than he would for a perennial Super Bowl contender, and thus, skew the numbers in favor of the bad teams?

I can give a perfect example. I live in Mississippi, where our closest NFL team is the Saints. I can tell you first hand the their secondary is the most God-awful unit in the entire league. Some teams have linebackers that cover man-to-man better than these guys. It's atrocious. In this year's draft, they picked OSU's Malcom Jenkins. I can say with a great deal of confidence that Jenkins will be a starter from the day he shows up at training camp. Does that mean he'll be any good though? Does that mean he'd be a good starter on a team with a good secondary? Hardly. He could end up being marginal at best, but their secondary is so bad in New Orleans, he'll still be their best option, even if he might only be a nickel or dime back in most other defenses.

In saying this, I fully realize that in looking at the list in the original posting, it doesn't appear that the numbers support that assertion. But, to me, that just means that the teams who are at the top of those categories who also are perennial contenders, are significantly better at drafting than the teams that don't seem to compete consistently, even if the numbers look similar.

Damn Probabilities and Statistics class in college destroyed my ability to ever accept numerical data ever again....

[jh0720]

5th aint so sad