2016 Bye Week Analysis - Sucks For Us

[AmishBengalFan]

When teams take a bye, the theory is that they'll use that off week to get rested and healed, giving them an advantage in their next game.  Presumably, this advantage evens-out because all 32 teams get one bye week (where they'll have the advantage) and will play on average one team coming off their bye (where they'll give up the advantage).  But take a careful look at the 2016 NFL Schedule grid....

While it is true that all 32 teams get one bye week, the notion that all 32 teams play against one coming-off-a-bye team is not.   Fewer than half (15) of the teams play one team coming off a bye.  They are:

Atlanta (Wk6 at Seattle (SNF))
Baltimore (Wk9 vs Pittsburgh)*
Chicago (Wk6 vs Jacksonville)
Denver (Wk14 at Tennessee)
Detroit (Wk5 vs Philadelphia)
Kansas City (Wk12 at Denver)
Minnesota (Wk10 at Washington)
New England (Wk12 at NY Jets (SNF))
New Orleans (Wk9 at San Francisco)
NY Jets (Wk9 at Miami)
Oakland (Wk6 vs Kansas City)
Pittsburgh (Wk9 at Baltimore)*
Seattle (Wk10 at New England (SNF))
Tampa Bay (Wk10 vs Chicago)
Tennessee (Wk11 at Indianapolis)

*Baltimore and Pittsburgh play each other coming off their mutual week 8 bye, so for them it's a wash.

Of the remaining 17 teams, nine of them play NO coming-off-a-bye teams at all:

Buffalo
Cleveland
Dallas
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
San Diego
Washington

That leaves 8 teams - one-quarter of the NFL - who play multiple coming-off-a-bye teams this year.  Of course, the Bengals are among them:

3: Philadelphia (Wk7 Minnesota, Wk8 at Dallas (SNF), Wk 9 at NY Giants)
2: Arizona (Wk 8 at Carolina, Wk12 at Atlanta)
2: Carolina (Wk 6 at New Orleans, Wk 9 at Los Angeles)
2: Cincinnati (Wk 11 Buffalo, Wk 14 at Cleveland)
2: Houston (Wk 11 at Oakland (MNF), Wk 12 San Diego)
2: Jacksonville (Wk 10 Houston, Wk 11 at Detroit)
2: NY Giants (Wk 5 at Green Bay, Wk 10 Cincinnati (MNF))
2: San Francisco (Wk 7 Tampa Bay, Wk 10 at Arizona)

Yeah, sucks to be us.  Sucks harder to be the Eagles... they play THREE such games, and they're all back-to-back-to-back. 

[DanvilleBengal]

Can't see the concern though--we just saw last season where we coming off of a bye,  playing @ Pittsburgh and even though we were a little slow out of the gate, which seems to be the norm for teams under Marvin Lewis,  we beat them 16-10.

Amish you may need to elaborate a little more on your analysis...what is the worry?

[|Numbers|]

Teams that are coming off a bye have a numerically higher percentage of winning versus teams that are not. ?  

[whodey365]

The whole schedule kind of sucks. Opening the first 2 on the road, 1 of which against the Jets for their home opener on September 11th mind you. Then against the stealers for their home opener I believe, without Burfict no less. A shitty bye week and a "home" game in London. 

[AmishBengalFan]

I just noticed.... Green Bay's schedule is totally fucked up.

- Open with back-to-back road games (like us), both of which are home openers for their opponents (like us).  First is at Jacksonville in week 1 - hottest possible week to play.  Then a division rival in week 2 (like us), at Minnesota, in their brand new billion-dollar stadium.  Yikes

- Then home-bye-home-home-home.  They don't travel for SIX weeks, and they burn up one-half of their home dates barely after Columbus Day.  So much for playing on the "Frozen Tundra".

- Oh, shitty bye week, coming in 4.

- Three straight road games 10-11-12, including back-to-back trips to the East Coast (PHI WAS)

- Close out with three straight division games... only one of which is at home.