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As the Dollar Drops


Guest Bengal_Smoov

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Guest Bengal_Smoov
[url="http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/news/topnews/*http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050112/economy_9.html"]Click Here[/url]

Thanks to the highest trade deficit ever the strength of the USD is falling, while the Euro and the Pound are worth more every day. The trade deficit can't be swept under the rug like this administration is trying to do by blaming it on the growth of our economy. The more ground we lose against the Euro and the Pound the weaker our economy becomes globally. In 2002, after 9/11, the dollar was still worth more the Euro, but thanks to Duh-bu-ya's horrible fiscal policies 1 Euro is worth like 1.25-1.30.

We as a nation need to wake up and do something about this problem before it too late. As the trade deficit sets new record highs,(it can't be blamed on Clinton) the rich get richer and poor gets poorer. With the outsourcing of jobs the middle class is becoming extinct, something must be done. This administration needs to take care of home first, before they go liberating the oppressed peoples across the world.
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Guest Bengal_Smoov
Why is that the common response for Bush supporters, to blame the everything on Clinton. The previous adminstration gave America it's best years ever financially, the dollar was gaining on the pound and we had the largest budget surplus in American history. It's amazing how things change in a few years. Now our economy is at best struggling, regardless of how they try to dress it up, and the dollar is losing ground everyday.
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Guest bengalrick
before you start bitching about economics, understand them first... having a weaker dollar isn't always a bad thing... exports are more expensive (american products that foreign countries buy) and imports (foreign products that we buy) are cheaper...

actually, poor americans and rich americans win... european countries lose...

don't fuck w/ bush, he'll get you back one way or another!!!

all jokes aside, this was probably done on purpose, while we're at war, so our deficit (domestic and foreign) would not go too bad out of wack...

the problem for france, germany, and england to a point, is that they have little population growth and a stagenent economy... theirs fell like ours did, but their socialist govt's decided to raise taxes and continue (and sometimes extend) the gov't programs... they need to cut spending and taxes, so their euro will compare better to our dollar...

then again, then we're kinda screwed, so i say they do what their doing, and let us get wealthy...

nice try, but bush isn't the problem or solution to the problem THEY have... our dollar will be back to normal after the war... until then, screw europe...
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What are you talking about? The dollar is weak and it helps people who buy our exports (foreigners) bc they get products cheaper. We have for the most part been a country which imports more than it exports, the problem is that their is a low demand for american products. The dollar weakening makes it more expensive for Americans to buy products from abroad. How is that helping the U.S.? Japan does that on purpose bc they have an economy geared towards exporting goods.
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Guest Bengal_Smoov
[quote name='bengalrick' date='Jan 12 2005, 12:47 PM']before you start bitching about economics, understand them first... having a weaker dollar isn't always a bad thing... exports are more expensive (american products that foreign countries buy) and imports (foreign products that we buy) are cheaper...

actually, poor americans and rich americans win... european countries lose...

don't fuck w/ bush, he'll get you back one way or another!!!

all jokes aside, this was probably done on purpose, while we're at war, so our deficit (domestic and foreign) would not go too bad out of wack...

the problem for france, germany, and england to a point, is that they have little population growth and a stagenent economy... theirs fell like ours did, but their socialist govt's decided to raise taxes and continue (and sometimes extend) the gov't programs... they need to cut spending and taxes, so their euro will compare better to our dollar...

then again, then we're kinda screwed, so i say they do what their doing, and let us get wealthy...

nice try, but bush isn't the problem or solution to the problem THEY have... our dollar will be back to normal after the war... until then, screw europe...
[right][post="35075"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


I have a pretty good understanding of economics, enough to know that it is never good to have a weak currency. Also, it not that easy to say once the war is over everything will go back to normal. First, this adminstration has no plans of ending this war anytime soon and the insurgents aren't just going to go away. Secondly, the problem is that foriegn investors will lose confidence in our economy and take away their money, which would hurt our economy further.

You said poor and rich americans win, how is that? What do poor Americans win, free cheese and apple juice? No one wins when the currency drops, except those who invest in the foriegn markets.
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Guest bengalrick
lets say 1 dollar = 1.50 euro

our dollar burger (for instance) is worth 1.50 in euro... which is more considering the euro's goal is to be as close to the dollar as possible...

is that too hard to understand...

a low dollar, we buy imports less expensive

a high dollar, we buy exports for more...

i'm not saying that i want our dollar to get lower, but to keep our inflation in check, its a must...
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[quote name='bengalrick' date='Jan 12 2005, 02:02 PM']lets say 1 dollar = 1.50 euro

our dollar burger (for instance) is worth 1.50 in euro... which is more considering the euro's goal is to be as close to the dollar as possible...

is that too hard to understand...

a low dollar, we buy imports less expensive

a high dollar, we buy exports for more...

i'm not saying that i want our dollar to get lower, but to keep our inflation in check, its a must...
[right][post="35086"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

That is really simple to understand actually.....
the only problem is that 1 euro = $1.32

Check the #'s
[url="http://www.xe.com/"]www.xe.com[/url]
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Guest bengalrick
[quote name='Bengal_Smoov' date='Jan 12 2005, 01:01 PM']I have a pretty good understanding of economics, enough to know that it is never good to have a weak currency.  Also, it not that easy to say once the war is over everything will go back to normal.  First, this adminstration has no plans of ending this war anytime soon and the insurgents aren't just going to go away.  Secondly, the problem is that foriegn investors will lose confidence in our economy and take away their money, which would hurt our economy further.

You said poor and rich americans win, how is that?  What do poor Americans win, free cheese and apple juice?  No one wins when the currency drops, except those who invest in the foriegn markets.
[right][post="35084"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

poor americans can buy more for less w/ a weaker dollar...

smoov, you are half right about not wanting a weak currency, but FOR NOW its necessary... the dollar is the most stable form of currency in the world, so i am confident it will equal itself out...
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Guest bengalrick

[quote name='jza10304' date='Jan 12 2005, 01:06 PM']That is really simple to understand actually.....
the only problem is that 1 euro = $1.32

Check the #'s
[url="http://www.xe.com/"]www.xe.com[/url]
[right][post="35089"][/post][/right][/quote]

hmm... nice comeback.. seriously...

but i'm not out yet... :D

[url="http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/22/commentary/mkcommentary/sivy/"]cnnmoney.com[/url]

[quote]When the dollar keeps falling, foreign investors require higher interest rates before they'll buy U.S. bonds (or otherwise finance a deficit) because they risk losses from exchange rates.

A low but stable dollar, by contrast, encourages a little domestic inflation -- which actually would be beneficial at the moment, at least for companies that would be able to pass it on to consumers in the form of price increases.

[b]A low dollar also boosts profits for U.S. exporters and for multinational companies that generate a significant percentage of their earnings in foreign markets. [/b][/quote]

i made it much too simple, and that was my mistake... by i am right, well kinda... our us exporters benefit...

goto this address[url="http://www.economist.com/markets/currency/graphs.cfm"]economist.com[/url] and plug in the dollar vs euro for any amount of time over two years... our dollar is almost always stronger than the euro... we have been getting screwed by the low euro for a while.. its about time they caught up...

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Guest Bengal_Smoov
[quote name='bengalrick' date='Jan 12 2005, 01:02 PM']lets say 1 dollar = 1.50 euro

our dollar burger (for instance) is worth 1.50 in euro... which is more considering the euro's goal is to be as close to the dollar as possible...

is that too hard to understand...

a low dollar, we buy imports less expensive

a high dollar, we buy exports for more...

i'm not saying that i want our dollar to get lower, but to keep our inflation in check, its a must...
[right][post="35086"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


Now I understand why you support Bush, you guys both have fuzzy math. To use your example one dollar in Euro's is worth $.66, not $1.50. So they could buy our dollar burger for $.66, that is the problem.

Where do get that info that the Euro's goal is to be close to the dollar, they want to be higher than the dollar and they are.

Also, inflation is tied into the interest rates that federal government sets more than the value of the dollar against foriegn currency.
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Guest Bengal_Smoov

[quote name='bengalrick' date='Jan 12 2005, 01:26 PM']hmm... nice comeback.. seriously...

but i'm not out yet... :D

[url="http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/22/commentary/mkcommentary/sivy/"]cnnmoney.com[/url]
i made it much too simple, and that was my mistake... by i am right, well kinda... our us exporters benefit...

goto this address[url="http://www.economist.com/markets/currency/graphs.cfm"]economist.com[/url] and plug in the dollar vs euro for any amount of time over two years... our dollar is almost always stronger than the euro... we have been getting screwed by the low euro for a while.. its about time they caught up...
[right][post="35099"][/post][/right][/quote]


Thanks for proving my point, the people are getting screwed. A low dollar allows companies to raises thier prices and the multi-national corporations who have already taken their jobs overseas will benefit as well.

Also, the british sterling pound is the strongest most stable currency, not the dollar. Has been and will continue to be, unless the global economy goes to shit.

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Guest bengalrick
[url="http://www.ocnus.net/cgi-bin/exec/view.cgi?archive=57&num=14999"]click here[/url]

[quote][b]The Pros and Cons of a Weak Dollar[/b]
By Steve Rosenbush , BW 13/11/04
Nov 13, 2004, 09:23

[b]The U.S. dollar is the benchmark world currency, the standard by which all others are measured. [/b] (i thought it was the glorious british pound...) And usually, it's the others that race to keep up with the symbol of U.S. economic might. But of late, the relationship has been reversed. The greenback has been sagging and wheezing and looking a bit soft around the middle. Its value relative to the euro has declined 8.3% this year, to $1.29 per euro on Nov. 11 from $1.17 on Apr. 26. The dollar has lost 21% of its value against the euro since President Bush took office in January, 2001.

The drop reflects the concerns of international investors, who hold 43% of the U.S. national debt, according to Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist at SunGard Institutional Brokerage, in New York. Foreigners have pumped enormous amounts into the U.S. over the past few years, and "now are getting nervous that too much of their assets are in dollars," says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.

VICIOUS CYCLE.  The inclination to begin parking their money elsewhere became apparent after the Nov. 2 reelection of George W. Bush. Since then, investors in the Mideast and Asia have gone on a euro buying binge, says Tom Rogers, a currency analyst with Informa Global Markets. They're concerned that the policies Bush has promised to enact during his second term will worsen an already record federal budget deficit. Left unchecked, investors fear a soaring deficit will lead to higher interests rates, lowering the value of U.S. stocks and bonds.

The vicious cycle works like this: As the currency deteriorates,[b] it becomes more expensive to import goods and services from other countries, fueling inflation[/b]. In an effort to pull investors back, central banks often raise interest rates when their national currencies lose value. But as anyone who remembers the '70s knows, the combination of rising interest rates and on-the-run inflation can be a devastating economic cocktail.

For now, inflation is under control. It's rising at a 2% annual rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices. Wyss expects it to stabilize at 2.5% next year. "It's not a big increase," he says. The Federal Reserve can continue to raise short-term interest rates at a slow, orderly pace to make sure the growing economy doesn't overheat.

Longer rates will rise slowly, too. Wyss says the 10-year bond will hit 5.5% next year, and that mortgage rates will rise to 6.75%, "still pretty low by historic standards," he says.

PRICIER IMPORTS.  Meantime, the weaker dollar has some benefits in the short term.[b] It could lower the trade deficit, which is dangerously high. And it stands to boost job growth, especially in critical areas such as manufacturing[/b]. Says Dudack: "The decline in the dollar may not be as onerous as it looks."

But the dangers of a weak dollar aren't evenly distributed, especially this time around. It's mostly a concern for countries in Europe and Asia. [b]A higher dollar makes it more difficult for U.S. consumers to afford products imported from those regions, which rely heavily on exports as engines of economic growth. A weak currency typically leads to inflation, because it prompts companies that export to the U.S. to raise prices. [/b]

"Things aren't working that way this cycle, and it's unlikely that will change," Dudack says. Japan and other counties in Asia depend on exports for economic growth. They can't afford to raise prices, because anything that damages the U.S. economy hurts them directly, she says. They're holding the line on prices, taking a hit to their profit margins instead.

RISING EXPORTS.  [b]The falling dollar also stands to help the U.S. manufacturing sector produce more domestic jobs. As U.S.-made goods and services become cheaper compared to those of rivals in other countries, demand will increase. That will boost domestic production of machine tools, cars, even the long-troubled textile industry, according to Wyss. [/b]

Japanese-based auto makers are already increasing production at their U.S. manufacturing plants, Wyss notes, because these are now the low-cost suppliers, and those cars are being shipped to Europe. Wyss expects job growth to stabilize at about 175,000 to 200,000 jobs a month. As U.S. exports rise, that should help reduce the current-account deficit, which measures the outflow of capital and trade. It's way too high, at a current level that exceeds 5% of GDP.

Europe, which is in much worse economic shape than the U.S., now finds itself in a real bind. Economic growth there will range from 1.8% to 2.8% next year, according to Ronald Simpson, an analyst with Action Economics. Growth prospects in the U.S. are about 3.5%. Federal deficits in Europe, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product, are higher than they are in the U.S.

CHINA'S CHEAP RIDE.  The unemployment rate in France is 9.9%, vs. 5.5% in the U.S. As the cheap dollar puts pressure on its export industries, Europe will have to find ways to spur domestic demand for goods and services. The most obvious method would be to cut interest rates, but the European Central Bank, worried about inflation, is nervous about such a move.

Making matters worse for the Europeans, China has pegged the value of its currency to the dollar. Under it's agreement with the World Trade Organization, Beijing doesn't have to let its currency float until 2008. Until then, China also gets to enjoy the economic boost that a cheap currency can bring.

None of this is reason for the U.S. to celebrate its battered buck. In a global economy, the U.S. needs a strong European market that can afford to buy U.S. goods, such as airplanes, to keep its economy going. A weaker dollar may be in U.S. interests for the next few years, but not at the expense of its trading partners over the long haul.

Source:Ocnus.net 2004[/quote]

this is my attempt to educate all of us... here are the pros and cons... i was mixed up from the beginning, but this should help us understand better... honestly, its not good to have a strong dollar or a weak dollar... we are slowing the trade deficit better, but the poor do get screwed, b/c they can't afford french wines and french cheeses... besides that, it makes no difference...
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[quote name='BengalsCat' date='Jan 12 2005, 05:17 PM']Ok anyone notice that these threads all seem to end the same way.... ie the libs stop posting when they figure out there wrong??? anyone see that trend its been the same since all the election threads.....
[right][post="35158"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


[img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/24.gif[/img] [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/24.gif[/img] [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/24.gif[/img] [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/24.gif[/img] [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/24.gif[/img]
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Guest Bengal_Smoov
First I'm not a democrat or liberal or whatever you want to classify me as.


Secondly, I'm not wrong. Bengalrick said himself the poor are getting screwed, which is in the title of the post. We disagree on inflation, I say the interest rates the fed set influence inflation more than the dollar's value vs. foreign currency and the fact that the sterling pound is the strongest currency. True the dollar's value does influence inflation and the dollar is the benchmark, but inflation is affected more by interest rates and the pound has been the most valueable currency for the past 50 years or longer.

"[i][u][b]The dollar has lost 21% of its value against the euro since President Bush took office in January, 2001[/b][/u][/i]. "

Can you read that? That was point of this entire thread and I didn't even post that information. But I'm sure it all Clinton's fault, Bush is perfect and the economy is doing great, just like the war in Iraq.
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That article is dated Nov. 13, 2004. The article that Smooth originally posted was from today and it states that it continued to fall, which is something that was not expected. Our exports are not keeping pace with our imports, even with the dollar weakening. That is a serious problem. The U.S.'s main exporting industry is the service industry. That does not help factory or manufacturing jobs as much as you would like to believe. With the dollar weakening there should be a decrease not an increase in foreign products, but the opposite is happening. That does not bode well for the economy in the long-run. Some industries may be better off in the short-run but it does not appear to be getting any better and the interest rate cannot be cut anymore to stimulate growth, nor can taxes be cut with the growing budget deficit and the ongoing war.

The reason "libs" stop posting is because at some point I'm not going to keep pounding my head against the wall.
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Guest bengalrick
smoov, i don't think u got the joke... hopefully, the poor aren't trying to buy fine wines and french cheeses... we pay a little more for items we import from europe... that is mostly high priced items...

the problem w/ saying that bush lost 23% since he was inaugorated, break the numbers down a little better (and fairer)...

january 2000 - september 2001: (sept 2001=1.09881/jan 2000=0.987351) = 12% better

october 2001 - present: (now=0.752955/oct 2001=1.10531) = 32% worse

also, in 2002, 12 more countries added the euro as their national currency... 9/11, the recession, and the new countries all had something to do w/ it... the good news is the gdp is recording record growth...

it's not pretty, i'll admit, but it's getting the job down... once we fix the dollar problem, we will be sitting pretty...
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Guest Bengal_Smoov
[quote name='bengalrick' date='Jan 12 2005, 09:17 PM']smoov, i don't think u got the joke... hopefully, the poor aren't trying to buy fine wines and french cheeses... we pay a little more for items we import from europe... that is mostly high priced items...

the problem w/ saying that bush lost 23% since he was inaugorated, break the numbers down a little better (and fairer)...

january 2000 - september 2001: (sept 2001=1.09881/jan 2000=0.987351) = 12% better

october 2001 - present: (now=0.752955/oct 2001=1.10531) = 32% worse

also, in 2002, 12 more countries added the euro as their national currency... 9/11, the recession, and the new countries all had something to do w/ it... the good news is the gdp is recording record growth...

it's not pretty, i'll admit, but it's getting the job down... once we fix the dollar problem, we will be sitting pretty...
[right][post="35198"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

I just hope it's sooner than later, this isn't something that we can play around with. The strength of the dollar respresents the strength of the nation to the rest of the world.
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Guest steggyD
[quote name='Bengal_Smoov' date='Jan 12 2005, 01:46 PM']Why is that the common response for Bush supporters, to blame the everything on Clinton.  The previous adminstration gave America it's best years ever financially, the dollar was gaining on the pound and we had the largest budget surplus in American history.  It's amazing how things change in a few years.  Now our economy is at best struggling, regardless of how they try to dress it up, and the dollar is losing ground everyday.
[right][post="35074"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

I wonder when people are going to give credit to the real heroes of the Clinton administration... the arrival of the home PC. New products with tons of potential lead to financial success, not presidents. You can't deny that Clinton would've had the same success in the 90's if it weren't for the PC being introduced into every household, leading to internet in every household, which led to E-businesses everywhere. If you want to break it down to politicians, the PC was developed in the 80's under the Reagan administration, and the internet was developed for our ever so lovely military, due to the Cold War. So keep on giving all the credit to Clinton for this one.
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Guest steggyD
[quote name='Jamie_B' date='Jan 13 2005, 11:18 AM']Ahem geek in me must speak now...

The PC was devloped in the 1970's the MITS Altair was the first Microcomputer.

geek speak over
[right][post="35343"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

OMG, my point was not that the PC was first invented in what year. Windows, Word, and other programs were developed in the 80's. I was not actually trying to credit Reagan; I'm only saying that Clinton's administration would never had have the same financial success if it weren't for the success of the home PC.

Anyways, maybe Bush is doing what other great civlizations did when the economy went stale. Go rape, pillage and plunder, and bring the loot back home. Hell, the Romans did it, why can't we? I'm somewhat serious, somewhat sarcastic with this paragraph, if anyone knows what I mean.

I guess I don't accept the lies from either party, they both suck. I realize what's going on in the world. The only thing I'm not sure of yet is this: Is it OK to start wars and kill some of your own people and other nations' people to keep your own nation afloat? Honestly, I don't care that much about people that I don't know dying. Sorry, I'm kind of cold-hearted. But, maybe, just maybe, in order to keep our nation as a powerful nation and on top of the EU we have to kill some people, then maybe it's OK. I don't want to end up in the dark ages of our nation.

NM, it's hard to explain how I feel about the entire issue. I think that the war was started because of Iraq and other nations were going to switch to the euro for oil trading. When that happens, then it is bad news for our country, I mean very bad news. Anyways, this thread was not about the war, but it was about the dollar vs the euro, this is why I rant on and on. I suppose I'm still questioning the great industrial military complex. But, people, we may not always see immediate success. Bush was not the only one who wanted to go to war with Iraq and run up a deficit, from what I read, he was against it until 9-11. Many other Republicans and Democrats alike (even Kerry) were wanting war in Iraq years before 9-11.

I can post links to anything you might question from my post, but it's late, I've been running heat ducting and insulating floors all day, I'm tired, and I'm about to transform my PC into a gaming machine.
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I think it is silly to get to caught up in shifting market trends, which is what the currency value market is: a constantly changing exchange system that dictates money exchanges on any given day.

That said, it should be no surprise that after the recession that [i]preceded[/i] 9/11, and the aftermath, both financial and otherwise, that followed that the Euro would be kicking our ass.

Consider that the Euro is a currency that is kept afloat at the mercy of MANY European countries, who's collective GDP is at LEAST equal, if not greater, than ours....and you'll see the reason for our dollar decline.

The dollar probably would have weakened against the Euro just because of the Euro's inception and financial backing. We may be the USA, but the Euro represents EVERY major European economy EXCEPT Britain, which has significant exchange gains against the US, for some reason...

But you see my point...I think that we are in undecided times, which affects investment confidence, which in turn affects consumer confidence...every little terroristic breeze released to the media seems to sway Wall St...WHY? Because people are scared when the should be confident <<opening can of worms>>...
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