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Reds Poised to Surprise?


Jason

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[b][size=4]These teams could make noise[/size][/b]
by Dayn Perry

Link: [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7701088"]http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7701088[/url]

With Spring Training in the offing, most of the attention has naturally been on conspicuous power teams like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, et al.

However, on this occasion we're turning our attention to four "under the radar" squads that might just surprise you in 2008. By no means are these teams favored in their respective divisions, but they do have strong upset potential. To be sure, it would take a happy union of circumstance and best-case scenarios for these teams to pull off the surprise. But, then again, that's why they call it a surprise. So let's have a look ...

[b][size=3][color="#FF0000"]Cincinnati Reds[/color][/size][/b]
First, the Reds have the structural advantage of playing in what figures to be baseball's weakest division. Second, they have substantial talent. Adam Dunn has turned in four straight 40-homer seasons, Ken Griffey Jr. enjoyed a nice renaissance in 2007, Edwin Encarnacion has promise going forward, Jay Bruce is the preseason favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, Brandon Phillips is coming off a 30-30 campaign, and Joey Votto figures to be an immediate contributor. In other words, the Reds should score plenty of runs.
As for the pitching, it's improved, especially in the bullpen. They finally have a shutdown closer in Francisco Cordero, and Bill Bray should be healthy. The rotation is where Cincy's fate will be decided. More specifically, youngsters Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez must step up. Both have strong minor league dossiers and excellent stuff, but both have thus far failed to transition to the highest level.

If Bailey and Volquez are able to realize their potential, then the Reds will have something more than a puncher's chance in the Central. Both the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are better teams on paper, but the Reds can make some noise. In fact, they're the team best positioned to pull off a big surprise in 2008.

[b]Minnesota Twins[/b]
Unlike the Reds, the Twins toil in a fairly brutal division. The Cleveland Indians last season came within a hair of winning the pennant, and no team this winter has improved as much as the 88-win Detroit Tigers.
Still, don't count out the Twins.

They still have (for the moment, anyway) Johan Santana, phenom Francisco Liriano will be back in the rotation, and Joe Nathan is baseball's peerless closer. Joe Mauer is the best all-around catcher in the game today, and Justin Morneau is a solid (if not somewhat overrated) power source at first base.

The rest of the infield, meanwhile, has been turned upside down. Adam Everett is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, Brendan Ryan is coming off a quality season at the plate, and Mike Lamb, while not much with the glove, will give the Twins a sorely needed offensive upgrade at third. Also, Jason Kubel is back, healthy, and ready to take over at DH. He's a good bet to break out this season.

The big question is whether the Twins' young pitchers are poised enough to work around what should be a sub-par defensive unit. It's not likely that Minnesota will be able to finish on top of such a tough division, but at the same time it's far from an impossibility.

[b]Texas Rangers[/b]
On balance, the Rangers were a disappointment in 2007. But it's worth noting that Texas was .500 after the break. Here's what they've got going for them in 2008: the potential for excellent up-the-middle offensive production (Jarrod Saltalamacchia at catcher, Michael Young at short, Ian Kinsler at second, and Josh Hamilton in center), a strong outfield defense, and an underrated bullpen.

However, if the Rangers are to make the necessary strides this year, then a few things need to happen. To wit, Kevin Millwood needs to pitch as he did in the second half (6.16 ERA before the break, 4.29 ERA after the break), Milton Bradley needs to stay healthy and hinged, and Jason Jennings needs to rediscover his 2006 self.

This division, by all rights, should belong to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but the Rangers, given a small miracle or two, could make the worst-to-first leap in 2008.

[b]Tampa Bay Rays[/b]
When you share a neighborhood with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, the odds are always going to be against you, but the current Rays model can't be summarily dismissed.
What distinguishes this team from, oh, every other team in franchise history is that this time around the Rays finally have a rotation. Scott Kazmir is one of the best young arms in the game (and the reigning AL strikeout king), James Shields boasts exceptional command, and Matt Garza has the makings of an excellent No. 2 man. As well, at the back end, Andrew Sonnanstine has breakout potential in 2008.

On offense, the Rays should be in good shape at first base, second base, third base (Evan Longoria is a strong AL Rookie of the Year candidate), center field, and left field.

If Dioner Navarro is able to make strides at the plate (a reasonably safe bet); if Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes, and Rocco Baldelli can form an adequate platoon in right and at DH; and if one of their shortstop options (Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist or prospect Reid Brignac) can produce at an acceptable level, then the Rays will get their share of runs. As for the bullpen, Troy Percival was an excellent addition, and he'll greatly improve how the Rays fare in late, high-leverage innings.

Overall, there's almost no chance that the Rays will finish higher than third place in the East, but they do have a shot at relevance, spoiler-hood, and their first-ever winning season.
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[quote]If Bailey and Volquez are able to realize their potential, then the Reds will have something more than a puncher's chance in the Central.[/quote]

If they "realize their potential" this team could be awfully good. The lineup can compete with just about anyone. Bailey has been touted as a potential #1 type for a while. If they are anything close to that this team could go a LONG way.

We'll see.
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As an optimist I'm eternaly hopeful, but i've gotta question the Bruce comment, with Hopper turning in the season he did last year.. Norris took his "rookie" opportunity and made the most of it, seemed to get clutch knocks set the table well, hit for a .330 avg in 121 games, made some spetacular catches in addition to playing a very solid center, definetly not a liability...I'd think that Bruce would have to come into spring training and blow the doors off the facility to get significant time...or, am I missing something here?
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[quote name='The Scales' post='625446' date='Jan 21 2008, 08:23 PM']As an optimist I'm eternaly hopeful, but i've gotta question the Bruce comment, with Hopper turning in the season he did last year.. Norris took his "rookie" opportunity and made the most of it, seemed to get clutch knocks set the table well, hit for a .330 avg in 121 games, made some spetacular catches in addition to playing a very solid center, definetly not a liability...I'd think that Bruce would have to come into spring training and blow the doors off the facility to get significant time...or, am I missing something here?[/quote]

Prob that jay bruce will have ten times the skills that hopper will ever dream of having.
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Am I the only one who feels like a lot is riding on Homer Bailey?

If he comes out blazing and starts the season as #3, and is successful, then I think we're fuckin' loaded. If he's still "not ready", we've got a lot more question marks. At least we've added pitching competition and depth so far. I'm actually liking our chances this year.

B)

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[quote name='BengalBacker' post='625549' date='Jan 22 2008, 04:01 AM'][b]Am I the only one who feels like a lot is riding on Homer Bailey?

If he comes out blazing and starts the season as #3, and is successful, then I think we're fuckin' loaded.[/b] If he's still "not ready", we've got a lot more question marks. At least we've added pitching competition and depth so far. I'm actually liking our chances this year.

B)[/quote]

My sentiments exactly.

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[quote name='BengalBacker' post='625549' date='Jan 22 2008, 04:01 AM']Am I the only one who feels like a lot is riding on Homer Bailey?

If he comes out blazing and starts the season as #3, and is successful, then I think we're fuckin' loaded. If he's still "not ready", we've got a lot more question marks. At least we've added pitching competition and depth so far. I'm actually liking our chances this year.

B)[/quote]


While I do think a lot rides on bailey whether or not we are a world series contender, I dont think we need him as much to just be a playoff contender. Here is my reason why...we have a lot more depth in the rotation this year then last year, last year if our #3 didnt do shit we had no one to back him up. This year we have Affeldt, Belisle, Bailey, Volzquez, and Cueto. We only need 3 of the 5 of them to help out. I think if 2 of the 5 of those guys have good years and a 3rd can at least compete every fifth day we should be able to make the playoffs.

We have 5 guys that could compete for 3 spots, and all 5 could be major league caliber pitchers. Last year we really had no depth and once one pitcher starting playing bad we really didnt have anyone to back him up.

This team is gonna depend on the youngsters though volzquez, baily, and cueto. If 2 of them are as good as they say they are we are gonna be fine, if all 3 are studs like some people think, watch out.

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