Articles

Articles

Articles

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

True Draft Pick Value?


Numbers

If the new values of the CBA instituted in the NFL have any meaning it is that what position in the draft a player is taken has a somewhat set value. However, why set a position at a certain value ? Can it be that the NFL knows something we don't ? Probably a study held over a period of time analyzing a players position in the draft and that players performance over a period of time. Taking into account the cost to bring the player into the team, a logical person could arrive at what is known as Career Approximate Value Over Average (CAVOA).

With all that being said, IS there a sweet spot in the draft ? The answer, according to stats held before and after the 2011 CBA, is YES. Picks 25-147 are considered relatively efficient.

Big deal right ? Yes, it is a big deal for the Bengals. We have the number 21 pick whose value would be right around $8,173,000 according to the recent CBA. By calculations that are rough, we could have a little more than 2 (2.46) players who could contribute more in terms of value than the number 21 pick if we moved back to bracket pick 61 which would be paid about $3,318,000. ...and we could still hang onto the number 37 and 53 pick also.

For those that enjoy stats and NUMBERS, the following is presented to you;

Quite possibly the most accurate way to value a draft pick based upon real world performance.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

value3.jpg

This guy who did this research is on to something that may change the way a team looks at the draft. I can not perform the calculations even with the formulas this guy provided but the results do make sense. This is a moneyball type of perspective look at the NFL draft.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/01/13/nfl-draft-efficiency-before-and-after-the-rookie-wage-scale/

From pick 1-24 are less efficient in terms of value to dollar. Bang for buck in other words. The most efficient picks are 25-147. A look at Pre 2011 contracts to post 2011 contracts makes sense.

rookiesalary2011.png

cavoaperdollar20111.png

2011 Final CBA Search Able by T_Erickson2666

I have to lend a little more credence into what this value chart states. Looking at player value in terms of what the CBA the NFL set up dictates. I would tend to believe that the NFL places similar values on players.

1. Andrew Luck $22,100,000

$22,100,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.0252715837621498 (2.52715837621498 %)

2. Robert Griffin III : $21,100,000

$21,100,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.024128073184677 (2.4128073184677 %)

3. Trent Richardson : $20,400,000

$20,400,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.023327615780446 (2.3327615780446 %)

17. Dre Kirkpatrick : $8,620,000

$8,620,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.0098570611778159 (.98570611778159 %)

21. Chandler Jones: $8,173,000

$8,173,000/$874.5 million/= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.0093459119496855 (.93459119496855 %)

27. Kevin Zeitler: $7,544,000

$7,544,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.0086266437964551 (.86266437964551 %)

61. LaMichael James: $3,318,000

$3,318,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.0037941680960549 (.37941680960549 %)

120. James-Michael Johnson :around $2,515,000

$2,515,000/$874.5 million= Percentage of rookie pool= 0.0028759291023442 (.28759291023442 %)

In not so many words, it looks like IF we had a number one pick it would make more sense in regards to value to bracket the number 61 pick (by trading back) and obtain about 6 almost 7 (6.6) players for the same cost as a number 1 pick. Overwhelmingly this would be a better value overall than the number 1 pick.

0


Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0


User Feedback




Guest xjpmcgCZ

Posted

true religion sale hard Contact - http://fuciki.asia/ghdonline/ ghd makes great http://gotoportland.com/truereligion/ cheap true religion of anytime to http://fuciki.asia/ghdonline/ ghd hair dryer with contrast it's brides, Executive http://mockcon2012.com/coach/ coach outlet online it's long http://goo.gl/GS5qZ true religion jeans for women counter stack are http://streetscooterchrome.com/rayban/ ray ban eyeglasses the Add buy to and coach outlet thought papers putting
0

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest unpandabync

Posted

bar 2x 25 fandango gift code 65 check from Skinny Cows February 1, 2012 at 8:06 pm 21 James Jr says: So far this year I won a Blanket and umbrella from Robitussin. A LG Nitro smartphone from Gameloft Level up sweepstakes. Along with you, a 1 year subscription to Better homes and garden and a 25 gift card from American Express. Cant wait to see what the rest of the year will bring. February 1, 2012 at 8:18 pm 22 Miranda says: I'm a newbie to sweepstakes, but in Jan. I won a starter kit from The Art of Shaving, a blanket from Robitussin, about 6 or 7 Mars candy bars, and a 100 Amazon gift card from Life360. February 1, 2012 at 8:22 pm 23 Phyllis says: In January I was notified cheap soccer jerseys that I won the Explore Canada Like a Local Sweepstakes sponsored by American Express Publishing Corp. The prize is a 5 day cheap football jerseys 4 night trip for two to Canada for my choice of one of the following itineraries: A foodie's insider tour of Vancouver, Quebec's great outdoors or Toronto for Free Spirits. I've been entering sweeps for over thirty years amp have won a few big prizes and lots of small ones. This is the best one I've won in a very long time. Love your site and visit almost daily. Keep on sweeping! February 1, 2012 at 8:24 pm 24 T. Williams says: I won a CD box set of Jimmy Hendrix, The Experience from Bluesmobile. com. February 1, 2012 at 8:47 pm 25 Noreen says: 10 gift card from Dollar General Fresh Start 50 gift card from Robitussin BHG 1yr. subscription from Pruex February 1, 2012 at 8:50 pm 26 TEN1942 says: Hi Sandra 8230 . it's me again. an old, old story. February 1, 2012 at 11:19 pm 27 treknott says: Pretty good month after a dismal December. I wonfrom Plus3 Anu performance shoes aka running shoes valued at about 100, also a merino wool shirt, a stainless water bottle, SPF 50 sunscreen and lip balm. Also a 25 roadid. Thanks About Sweeps and Sandra and the sweeps sponsors. February 2, 2012 at 1:46 am 28 Eugene says: WAHHHHH Well, I'm happy for all you guys! I WILL WIN BIG SOON! YEAH! lol February 2, 2012 at 1:52 am 29 Peggy A says: I am excited to say I won an Xbox and John Madden Football Game from Fedex 8230 no noti Also from: http://costaricasatelital.info/index.php?action=profile;u=100543

0

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites



Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Add a comment...

×   You have pasted content with formatting.   Remove formatting

  Only 75 emoticons maximum are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

Loading...