TJ has the best hands in the NFL (statistically)

[Guest oldschooler]

Found this on the bengals.com board... I guess it`s from ESPN Insider...


[quote]One of the things I most enjoy in researching football scientifically is debunking traditional football wisdom. How many times have you seen a sure-handed receiver drop a pass, only to have the announcer say something like, "That almost never happens. He'll catch that pass 99 times out of 100."

I always wondered if that was true. Do the best receivers catch 99 percent of the passes thrown their way?

As a result, I tracked the number of drops every qualifying receiver had during the 2005 season (minimum of 40 catches to qualify). I also divided the number of drops by the number of catchable passes to come up with a dropped pass percentage.

Here are the top 20 receivers in dropped pass percentage from the 2005 season:

Dropped Passes
Player Team Dropped passes Dropped pass %
[b]Houshmandzadeh Cincinnati 3 2.6%[/b]
Marvin Harrison Indianapolis 4 3.2%
Bobby Engram Seattle 4 4.3%
Jason Witten Dallas 4 4.5%
Steve Smith Carolina 7 4.7%
Scottie Vines Detroit 3 4.8%
Tony Gonzalez Kanas City 6 4.9%
Eric Parker San Diego 4 4.9%
K. Johnson Dallas 6 5.1%
Joe Jurevicius Seattle 4 5.1%
Eric Moulds Buffalo 7 5.5%
Keenan McCardell San Diego 6 5.6%
Reggie Wayne Indianapolis 7 5.7%
Lee Evans Buffalo 5 5.9%
Jabar Gaffney Houston 5 6.3%
Larry Fitzgerald Arizona 10 6.4%
Chris Cooley Washington 6 6.5%
Marcus Pollard Detroit 5 6.7%
Deion Branch New England 8 6.7%
Jermaine Wiggins Minnesota 6 6.7%

If last season is any indication, the best receivers don't drop only one pass for every 99 they catch. The best ratio is more like one drop for every 40 catches.

It was no surprise to see Marvin Harrison near the top of this list, [b]but I was somewhat surprised to see T.J. Houshmandzadeh rank No. 1 in this category. Houshmandzadeh is known as a very good possession receiver, but this chart shows he may be one of the best. [/b]

Steve Smith's reputation as a home run threat is well earned, but having dropped only seven passes in 150 catchable attempts shows his hands are certainly underrated.

I also found it interesting to see two Seattle receivers -- Joe Jurevicius and Bobby Engram -- in the top 20. Having two of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL certainly was a big reason Seattle was finally able to become a championship contender in 2005.

Let's also examine how the worst receivers in the league did (also a minimum of 40 catches to qualify).

Dropped Passes-2
Player Team Dropped passes Dropped pass %
Ernest Wilford Jacksonville 13 19.1%
Justin McCareins NY Jets 16 16.7%
Reggie Brown Philadelphia 13 16.3%
Roy Williams Detroit 13 14.6%
Brian Finneran Atlanta 11 14.3%
Erron Kinney Tennessee 10 14.1%
Antonio Bryant Cleveland 16 13.9%
M. Muhammad Chicago 18 13.6%
Greg Lewis Philadelphia 13 12.9%
Eddie Kennison Kansas City 14 12.8%
Randy McMichael Miami 12 12.0%
L.J. Smith Philadelphia 12 11.8%
Alge Crumpler Atlanta 13 11.5%
Mark Clayton Baltimore 9 11.3%
Donte' Stallworth New Orleans 14 11.2%
Chris Chambers Miami 17 11.0%
Todd Heap Baltimore 11 10.4%
Terrell Owens Philadelphia 9 10.2%
Plaxico Burress NY Giants 17 10.2%
Ben Troupe Tennessee 8 10.1%
This chart shows that Ernest Wilford dropped nearly one out of every five passes thrown to him last year. Despite this abysmal drop percentage, Wilford still ranked fourth in the league in total yards per catch attempt. Most of Wilford's drops came on accurate passes, so he has a ton of upside for the upcoming season.

Two highly touted rookie receivers -- Reggie Brown and Mark Clayton -- also found their way on this list. While their drop percentages were fairly close, Clayton was actually much more sure-handed when considering the accuracy of the passes each receiver dropped.

The accuracy of a pass is a subjective measurement, but I use a set of rules to hopefully limit its subjective nature. The rule of thumb I use to grade the accuracy of a pass is whether the receiver is forced to reach behind or dive to make the catch.

I segment dropped passes into three categories. The first is an accurate dropped pass. The blame for dropping an accurate pass falls completely on the wide receiver. The second is an inaccurate dropped pass. These are passes that are thrown outside of the receiver's catching frame, but are still catchable. A receiver may not catch all of these passes but the best ones still catch most of them.

The third type of dropped pass is what I call stripped/drop passes. These are passes a receiver gets his hands on, but has the ball stripped away by the defender for an incompletion. Most scoring systems list these as passes defensed. However, since the receiver got his hands on the ball and had it stripped away, I figure it should be segmented away from the standard pass defensed (i.e., when a DB knocks the pass down before it gets to the receiver).

So how did Clayton and Brown fare in these categories? Four of Clayton's nine total drops came on accurate passes, while only three came on inaccurate passes and two on stripped passes. Meanwhile, nine of Brown's 13 drops came on accurate passes, while only four were due to inaccurate passes and none were due to stripped passes. The nine accurate pass drops tied Brown for fifth-worst in the league in that category last year.

Having a pair of good pass-catching hands is a natural talent, but as Raymond Berry proved years ago, it is also something that can be improved upon with practice. If these numbers are any indication, Reggie Brown has the most room for improvement of any second-year wide receiver.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest book, Scientific Football 2006, is now available for preorder at his Web site, [url="http://thefootballscientist.com"]http://thefootballscientist.com[/url].[/quote]



[url="http://boards.bengals.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=19491"]http://boards.bengals.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=19491[/url]

[Guest Master Shake]

Anyone have the %'s for Chad and Henry?

[OU Bengals]

I believe it though, never would have guess number one but how many times do you guys remember him flat out dropping a pass? The guy just flat out pulls the ball down no matter where it's at.

[Jamie_B]

As much as I hate to admit it. When it comes to 3rd down Im not hoping Palmer throws it to Chad or Henry, Im hoping it goes to TJ.

[McBallerson]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='276498' date='Jun 2 2006, 10:12 AM']As much as I hate to admit it. When it comes to 3rd down Im not hoping Palmer throws it to Chad or Henry, Im hoping it goes to TJ.[/quote]

Don't feel bad. I'm the same way too.

[Guest BengalsOwn]

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='BengalsOwn' post='276500' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:23 PM'][/quote]




Thats because

<--- Own and TJ

[img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons//3.gif[/img]

[Guest OzBengal]

TJ is still very under rated by some people. Hopefully he can get his 1000yd season this year.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

read the bottom of my sig. people.....it's been there.

[The_Joker]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='276498' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:12 PM']As much as I hate to admit it. When it comes to 3rd down Im not hoping Palmer throws it to Chad or Henry, Im hoping it goes to TJ.[/quote]
I have felt that way every sense Kitna threw up that 4th and a prayer snagged by TJ that catch was big time.

[natifanatic]

I stated something similar to a friend of mine (and Chicago Bear fan) recently. We were arguing who was the best number 2 receiver in the league. And I made a TJ reference to which he rarely ever drops the ball and has some of the surest hands in the league. My friend dismissed it as bullshit and said that Chads hands were better. I guess you have to be a Bengal fan to know that Chad, although able to burn pretty much anybody in the league, has had a few drops in his day. I've seen him drop his fair share of bubble screens over the past 2 years.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='The_Joker' post='276514' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:37 PM']I have felt that way every sense Kitna threw up that 4th and a prayer snagged by TJ that catch was big time.[/quote]


I slowly started comming around during the Baltimore comeback game.

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='natifanatic' post='276515' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:39 PM']I stated something similar to a friend of mine (and Chicago Bear fan) recently. We were arguing who was the best number 2 receiver in the league. And I made a TJ reference to which he rarely ever drops the ball and has some of the surest hands in the league. My friend dismissed it as bullshit and said that Chads hands were better. I guess you have to be a Bengal fan to know that Chad, although able to burn pretty much anybody in the league, has had a few drops in his day. I've seen him drop his fair share of bubble screens over the past 2 years.[/quote]


I think Chad does have better hands, but T.J definately has better focus, which really is more important. All the talent in the world is useless if you lack the ability to apply it.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

[quote name='The_Joker' post='276514' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:37 PM']I have felt that way every sense Kitna threw up that 4th and a prayer snagged by TJ that catch was big time.[/quote]
that was the giants game joker i was there. man that was the shit, can't belive we beat them with kitna.

i like this topic a lot, we hardley ever talk good ol tj.

[85fanwilkes]

TJ has been one of our key players for a while and he makes a lot of good catches that I think go unnoticed by a lot of us.

[Rumble In the Jungle]

not me dude. i like tj a whole lot as a reciver that is. when he missed 3 games last year you could tell the difference.

[BK Cincy Connection]

let's not forget TJ is also quietly very funny...I always feel safe when the ball goes to TJ, I know he won't drop it and nobody will force him to fumble...I'm surprised 85 wasn't on the dropped pass list...

[Guest mongoloido]

[quote name='OU Bengals' post='276497' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:10 PM']I believe it though, never would have guess number one but how many times do you guys remember him flat out dropping a pass? The guy just flat out pulls the ball down no matter where it's at.[/quote]


Aside from the preseason, where I remember him dropping a bunch, not many at all.

[Guest ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='BK Cincy Connection' post='276527' date='Jun 2 2006, 01:00 PM']let's not forget TJ is also quietly very funny...I always feel safe when the ball goes to TJ, I know he won't drop it and nobody will force him to fumble...I'm surprised 85 wasn't on the dropped pass list...[/quote]

he has tons of drops.

[Guest bengalrick]

Go isn't going to like this thread too much.....

[Guest BengalsOwn]

[quote name='Rumble in the Jungle' post='276521' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:45 PM']i like this topic a lot, we hardley ever talk good ol tj.[/quote]

You should have been around in 04 and 05...

[Jason]

Go?


Go?

[Guest schotzee]

[quote name='BengalsOwn' post='276500' date='Jun 2 2006, 12:23 PM'][/quote]
x2 He's clutch

[Guest schotzee]

[quote name='Jason' post='276550' date='Jun 2 2006, 01:33 PM']Go?
Go?[/quote]

He's thinking of a rebuttal [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/3.gif[/img]

[SlantNGo]

TJ does drop the ball--He was known for dropping them at the worst possible times in the past. The only drop I remember from him this year though, was in the second Cleveland game on a 3rd & medium, wide open on a drag.