Safe-pick Theory has its pitfals

[EnglishBengal]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=6343941

[b][size="5"]Safe-pick theory has pitfalls[/size][/b]
Dolphins' 2008 draft decision magnifies importance of finding franchise quarterback
Clayton By John Clayton
ESPN.com

The Dolphins passed up Matt Ryan, left, in 2008 and selected Jake Long with the No. 1 pick. Ryan was taken at No. 3 by the Falcons, who have had three straight winning seasons.

Bill Parcells' recent statement that he may have missed the mark by not taking quarterback Matt Ryan in 2008 (when Parcells was the Dolphins' vice president of football operations) confirms the "safe pick" theory isn't really all that safe.

The safe pick that year was left tackle Jake Long, and he has lived up to all his pre-NFL billing. He has been to three Pro Bowls. He has never missed a start. He's a great leader on the field and in the locker room. In a normal situation, Parcells should be proud.

But to survive in the NFL decision-making business these days, playing it safe only works if the team has a great quarterback. With 59 percent of last season's plays leaguewide designed for the pass, a great quarterback can cover for any hole on a team. A tackle, a defensive end, a wide receiver or any other position can't do that.

On the surface, things couldn't have worked out any better for Parcells and the Dolphins. He drafted his Pro Bowl left tackle and was lucky enough to find a strong-armed quarterback (Chad Henne) available with the 57th pick in the second round. Defensive end Phillip Merling was there for Parcells with the first pick in the second round, so Parcells left the draft feeling he had filled three key positions.

But taking the safe pick at the top of the 2008 draft still has the Dolphins looking for that elite quarterback. The Falcons have made two trips to the playoffs in the past three years with Ryan at the helm, and Ryan has the aura of a quarterback who will get a chance at a couple of Super Bowl rings.

You always hear analysts discussing the safe-pick concept of a team -- particularly those teams toward the top of the draft. The problem with drafting in the top five or top seven is that one first-round pick isn't good enough to turn a franchise around -- unless he's a quarterback.

The Seahawks thought they made a safe pick in 2009 when they took linebacker Aaron Curry with the fourth pick overall. Curry has had only 5½ sacks in two seasons and hasn't dominated. The St. Louis Rams thought they were going the safe route by making defensive end Chris Long the second pick in 2008 and offensive tackle Jason Smith the second pick in 2009. Drafting safe got them to 1-15 in 2009 and the chance to get the first pick in 2010.

With the selection of quarterback Sam Bradford, the Rams jumped to 7-9 and should be a playoff contender for the next several years. Had they drafted safe and taken defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, the 2010 defensive rookie of the year, the Rams might have not done better than 4-12 with their current talent base.

A safe defensive tackle can't turn around a team as much as a top young quarterback.

The tough part about the 2011 draft is there aren't a lot of safe picks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson might be the safest, but no cornerback has been taken No. 1. Da'Quan Bowers might be the best defensive end, but long-term worries about an injured knee could drop him out of the top 10. Defensive end Robert Quinn looks solid, but it's hard to overlook the brain tumor he had in high school and a suspension that kept him away from the football field for 18 months in college.

And clearly there is no safe pick in this year's quarterback class. Cam Newton was a one-year phenom at Auburn, but how long will it take for him to convert those raw skills into efficiently running an NFL offense? Blaine Gabbert threw 267 shotgun passes in Big 12 play last season but didn't take a snap under center and completed only 44 percent of his passes on third downs. With Jake Locker, you worry about accuracy. Ryan Mallett worries teams because of his personality.

The scariest part of this draft is it's loaded at defensive end. Believe it or not, defensive end has been the least-safe position to draft since 2007. The only Pro Bowl defensive end taken in the first round of the past four drafts is Brian Orakpo of the Redskins -- and he's now a linebacker in a 3-4 defense.

Of the 16 other defensive ends taken since 2007, Vernon Gholston, Lawrence Jackson, Kentwan Balmer, the late Gaines Adams, Adam Carriker and Jarvis Moss are no longer with the teams that drafted them. Derrick Harvey, Jamaal Anderson and Aaron Maybin have been labeled disappointments. Tyson Jackson is off to a slow start in Kansas City, and injuries ruined the first years of Brandon Graham, Derrick Morgan and Jared Odrick.

Only Long can claim some form of success in the defensive end group.

Offensive linemen, on the other hand, have been very safe investments. Of the 27 offensive linemen taken in the first round since 2006, 26 are full-time starters and those 26 have started 85.8 percent of the games. The only true failure is Andre Smith of the Bengals, who has started only five of 32 games.

What helps the success rate of offensive tackles is flexibility. Struggling tackles can be moved inside and teams can salvage productivity. Chris Williams struggled at both tackle spots, but at least he's starting at guard for the Chicago Bears. The Raiders salvaged Robert Gallery's career by moving him to guard.

Parcells might have drafted the best tackle since Joe Thomas went to the Cleveland Browns at No. 3 in 2007, but safe still left the Dolphins wanting at quarterback. Safe just isn't safe these days.

[i]John Clayton, a recipient of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's McCann Award for distinguished reporting, is a senior writer for ESPN.com.[/i]

[Bengals1181]

IMO the Dolphins still made the right choice in taking a franchise LT.

[T-Dub]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1302920422' post='983976']
IMO the Dolphins still made the right choice in taking a franchise LT.
[/quote]

Yeh no doubt, we've all seen what happens when you let a franchise QB get pummeled behind a patchwork o-line.

[happyrid]

[quote name='T-Dub' timestamp='1302920621' post='983977']
Yeh no doubt, we've all seen what happens when you let a franchise QB get pummeled behind a patchwork o-line.
[/quote]

Since they made that draft choice of Jake Long, they've wasted three high 2nd round picks on QBs (John Beck, Pat White and Chad Henne).

With that in mind, which of the following seems like a better option?

A. Jake Long, Chad Henne, 2 guys no longer in the league

B. Matt Ryan, 3 early 2nd round Offensive linemen (let's say LT, LG, C)


The problem with passing on a QB early when you don't have one is you often spend years chasing after a QB with no success. It's easier to fill other holes later in the draft than it is QB. You can find an Andrew Whitworth in the 2nd easier than you can find a starting QB in the 2nd.

[T-Dub]

[quote name='happyrid' timestamp='1302930623' post='983987']
Since they made that draft choice of Jake Long, they've wasted three high 2nd round picks on QBs (John Beck, Pat White and Chad Henne).

With that in mind, which of the following seems like a better option?

A. Jake Long, Chad Henne, 2 guys no longer in the league

B. Matt Ryan, 3 early 2nd round Offensive linemen (let's say LT, LG, C)


The problem with passing on a QB early when you don't have one is you often spend years chasing after a QB with no success. It's easier to fill other holes later in the draft than it is QB. You can find an Andrew Whitworth in the 2nd easier than you can find a starting QB in the 2nd.
[/quote]

I take your point & even agree with you somewhat, but you are also assuming those 2nd round o-linemen would pan out. What happens if you put Matt Ryan behind the 'phins O-line minus Jake Long? You can't just take it for granted that he would have had the same success. That's the thing about the "could have/would have" stuff in regards to the draft - hindsight is 20/20. If you're holding a top-10 pick and come away with a franchise player at a premier position I think you'd have to consider yourself lucky. I certainly wouldn't waste much time worrying about "could-have-beens" if I'd drafted one of the best young LT's in the league. As you point out, they've taken 3 QB's in the 2nd round since instead of investing a 1st-rounder.

Closer to home, I agree that later rounds should be ok for interior linemen but I still don't think anyone in this QB class is worth a #4 overall & I'm not sold on Green, either. Drafting WR's that high reminds me of the Lions, who remind me of epic fail and wondering what else is on TV. I know the lack of free agency is making a BPA draft strategy more difficult but with a top 10 pick I don't think you can afford to reach, even for a position of need.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='happyrid' timestamp='1302930623' post='983987']
Since they made that draft choice of Jake Long, they've wasted three high 2nd round picks on QBs (John Beck, Pat White and Chad Henne).

With that in mind, which of the following seems like a better option?

A. Jake Long, Chad Henne, 2 guys no longer in the league

B. Matt Ryan, 3 early 2nd round Offensive linemen (let's say LT, LG, C)


The problem with passing on a QB early when you don't have one is you often spend years chasing after a QB with no success. It's easier to fill other holes later in the draft than it is QB. You can find an Andrew Whitworth in the 2nd easier than you can find a starting QB in the 2nd.
[/quote]\


yes but at the time Matt Ryan was hardly a slam dunk draft prospect. They made the right choice at the time.

[bengaled]

[quote name='happyrid' timestamp='1302930623' post='983987']
Since they made that draft choice of Jake Long, they've wasted three high 2nd round picks on QBs (John Beck, Pat White and Chad Henne).

With that in mind, which of the following seems like a better option?

A. Jake Long, Chad Henne, 2 guys no longer in the league

B. Matt Ryan, 3 early 2nd round Offensive linemen (let's say LT, LG, C)


The problem with passing on a QB early when you don't have one is you often spend years chasing after a QB with no success. It's easier to fill other holes later in the draft than it is QB. You can find an Andrew Whitworth in the 2nd easier than you can find a starting QB in the 2nd.
[/quote]


but the flip side of that dilemma is taking a QB at the very top of the draft (our situation this year) that you're likely going to pay huge money to and lock yourself down with him for 4-5 years before you can make a corrective move. you can't just go off of stats from the past to make that decision, then feel confident those figures somehow makes the guy a fit. it's just not that easy. the guy you select really has to warrant the pick, otherwise your fucked. newton and gabbert have too many concerns surrounding them for my liking. if you're taking a QB that high, there shouldn't be all those question marks surrounding the guy. neither appear to warrant a top 5 ranking and i even question whether they'd be legitimate 1st round picks in a normal year. the thought of being locked down with either guy, with no other options, scares the living hell out of me. stats from success rates of 1st round QBs from the past don't ease those concerns.

[bengaled]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1302957726' post='984003']
\


yes but at the time Matt Ryan was hardly a slam dunk draft prospect. They made the right choice at the time.
[/quote]


agreed, but he sure showed a lot more promise than either newton or gabbert, which is how this discussion relates to our situation this year.

[|Harley|]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1302920422' post='983976']
IMO the Dolphins still made the right choice in taking a franchise LT.
[/quote]

x2. What more could ask out of a LT. You don't appreciate this until you don't have it.