Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap continue their domination at defensive end

[bengaled]

 

+1

 

And in fact, I think that's just what will happen, because I think that's what he was already offered.  It's not coincidence that Dunlap got an urgent call just after MJ signed his franchise tag.  I'm thinking they told both guys, "we're going to pay you well, but not out-of-this universe. We like what we've built here and we want to keep it together." MJ was in a much better bargaining position last year than he is now, at least in terms of sacks # perception, and so though he may have been willing to roll the dice last year, I think he'll be less-so-inclined this year.  I also think his price will come down somewhat, and the difference will be negligible enough for him that he'll see that taking the Bengals' original offer remains in his best interest.

 

As for Hunt, I'll quote Leonard Cohen:

 

I saw a man leaning on his wooden crutch, He cried out to me "you must not ask for so much."

And a pretty woman leaning in her darkened door, she cried to "hey, why not ask for more?"

 

I love having him, not just as insurance and to put in rotation, but for the versatility he'll eventually provide as a guy who can really bring it as a pass-rushing DT as well.

 

 

the thing that hurts michael's case is he doesn't fit every team as well as he does here, that being as a 4-3 DE. i'd think the list of 4-3 teams that legitimately have a need to upgrade that position aren't that many. from that limited group, a suitor would also have to be a team that prefers filling that need through free agency vs. the draft. when it's all said and done, we have a better than average chance to retain him, and likely hold the upper hand. i'd really hate to see someone make the mistake of projecting him into a role he isn't capable of filling, but i don't see that happening.   

[bengaled]

I'd let MJ know right now that he will be tagged again ... and that he'd be wise to sign the same deal Dunlap got before he gets hurt like Atkins did and comes much cheaper.

 

 

wrong, they'd never make him that offer again, and he likely knows that. that tag was the main reason why a long term deal didn't get signed in the first place. we made him an offer he couldn't/shouldn't refuse. with that off the table negotiations hopefully can get back to a more reasonable level.

[bengaled]

 

You never know how that is going to play out in the future.  Take our CB situation.   The Bengals couldn't give franchise money to both JJoe and Hall.   They made the safe bet by choosing Hall in that he was less of an injury risk through the first contract.  JJoe has missed a handful of games the past 3 years and Hall hasn't finished 2 out of 3.   Some players take longer to mature into their bodies, they start out being easily injured but as they mature they toughen up.  Frostee was a graphic example.  Always injured his first 3 years and in danger of being cut.  But he put in a full 16 his last year here and another 15 or 16 for Cleveland the next year.  

 

Conversely,  some guys start breaking down earlier in their careers and others play at a high level till THEY choose to retire, despite "wear and tear".  Freaks like Barry Sanders and Steve Smith.

 

 

doc, i wouldn't argue with any of that except to say that sometimes it's just a case of bad luck. i think that applies in JJ's case.

[big_dish]

I like both guys, but if say it's a stretch to say either one of them are dominant. Pretty damn good? Hell yes. Dominant? Hell no.

Dominate DEs dont totally disappear for games at a time. These guys are better than many, but even with Atkins, there are complete games where no one shows up anywhere close to the dominant category.

[happyrid]

wrong, they'd never make him that offer again, and he likely knows that. that tag was the main reason why a long term deal didn't get signed in the first place. we made him an offer he couldn't/shouldn't refuse. with that off the table negotiations hopefully can get back to a more reasonable level.

Yeah. I think if we tagged him again it would be almost $14M for the 1 year.

I would definitely try to keep him if he would be willing to sign for $7-8 M per year. It might cause the need for some belt tightening elsewhere, but it would be worth it. Cutting Geathers and BJGE would save 5 or 6 million next season for example. With the D Line locked up long term, it allows you to replace higher paid guys like BJGE with cheap rookies.

[Big Alice]

I like both guys, but if say it's a stretch to say either one of them are dominant. Pretty damn good? Hell yes. Dominant? Hell no.

Dominate DEs dont totally disappear for games at a time. These guys are better than many, but even with Atkins, there are complete games where no one shows up anywhere close to the dominant category.

"Dominant" defensive ends "disappear" all the time because the very best guys play 3 downs and there's only so much noise a defemsive end is going to make in the running game. Stuffing the run doesn't make highlight reels.

There are a lot of ends that put up big sack numbers at the expense of having any run responsibility. Hell, Dwight Freeney will probably wind up in the Hall of Fame. Some analysis geek ought to go back and figure out how many by runs he gave up by speed rushing up the field and right out of the play. I'd bet it's 3 or 4 times his career sack total.

There aren't 5 defensive ends in the league better than Carlos Dunlap.

Michael Johnson is more like a "Top 20" guy. I don't what number is a sensible salary for the Be gals to pay him, but I reckon it's less than what somebody else is willing to overpay.

[sparky151]

MJ won't be tagged again. The team isn't allowed to sign him to a new deal til after the season but they are free to negotiate and reach agreement. I think the team can afford to give him the same deal Dunlap got. With a reduced number of sacks in 2013 compared to 2012 he might cost less. If he does enter free agency, it seems likely that he'd give the Bengals a chance to match his best offer elsewhere. The DE market was fairly soft this past offseason and the team probably regrets tagging MJ. Next year Jared Allen is probably the headline pass rusher on the market. 

[Big Alice]

I think the team can afford to give him the same deal Dunlap got. 

If they could get him at $40 over 6 years, that would probably be manageable.  Whether or not he'll be available at that number is doubtful.  The Bengals had a lot of leverage in the Dunlap negotiations.  On the open market, it would have been MUCH more expensive.  

 

You are right on about last year's market for defensive ends.  With half of the teams running a 3-4, the position isn't as "premium" as it once was.  As always though, the Bengals won't be bidding against 31 other suitors.  They'll be bidding against the ONE team that wants Michael Johnson the most.  And it's VERY easy to see a desperate suitor pushing that salary to a level that doesn't make sense for the Bengals.

[Oldcat]

If they could get him at $40 over 6 years, that would probably be manageable.  Whether or not he'll be available at that number is doubtful.  The Bengals had a lot of leverage in the Dunlap negotiations.  On the open market, it would have been MUCH more expensive.  

 

You are right on about last year's market for defensive ends.  With half of the teams running a 3-4, the position isn't as "premium" as it once was.  As always though, the Bengals won't be bidding against 31 other suitors.  They'll be bidding against the ONE team that wants Michael Johnson the most.  And it's VERY easy to see a desperate suitor pushing that salary to a level that doesn't make sense for the Bengals.

 

Atlanta runs a 4-3, don't they?  They might be interested, although they might not have cap room for a fat signing with all those offensive guys.

[sparky151]

 Atlanta's top priority is said to be a new deal for Julio Jones. They may well draft Clowney to help their pass rush.

[Oldcat]

 Atlanta's top priority is said to be a new deal for Julio Jones. They may well draft Clowney to help their pass rush.

 

Julio is in the same contract boat as AJ Green isn't he?  They have an option year they can use.  

 

Clowney might be good, but they also need some OL help -  an OT that can save Matt Ryan might be in the cards.

[sparky151]

 

Julio is in the same contract boat as AJ Green isn't he?  They have an option year they can use.  

 

Clowney might be good, but they also need some OL help -  an OT that can save Matt Ryan might be in the cards.

Yes, they don't have to do Jones this year but they're trying to get Roddy White to take a paycut so they can pay Jones more. They'll probably have a top 5, maybe top 3 pick. They aren't looking for a QB so Clowney seems likely for them. There aren't any OTs that should go that high, Matthews is probably the best this season. 

 

In any event Atlanta probably doesn't have the cap space to go after MJ. They loaded up this year adding Steven Jackson and bringing back Gonzalez.

[Oldcat]

Yes, they don't have to do Jones this year but they're trying to get Roddy White to take a paycut so they can pay Jones more. They'll probably have a top 5, maybe top 3 pick. They aren't looking for a QB so Clowney seems likely for them. There aren't any OTs that should go that high, Matthews is probably the best this season. 

 

In any event Atlanta probably doesn't have the cap space to go after MJ. They loaded up this year adding Steven Jackson and bringing back Gonzalez.

 

Well both those latter ships have sailed.  Gonzalez to retire and Jackson let go for a 2nd/3rd round RB draft pick, if I were running them.

 

I really think that it comes down to what we can offer MJ to stay in the business plan.  If another Dunlap-sized deal isn't maintainable for us, then he probably finds a new spot elsewhere, and Hunt and Geathers and draft pick are in the cards, and we use the comp pick to keep the team going after that.