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NFL free agency inspires caution among league's winning teams

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If the NFL truly is a copycat league, then maybe we have our explanation as to why the free agency market seems to have gotten less splashy of late.

"This is Year 3 of the new CBA climate, and we're all more familiar with the rules," one veteran AFC pro director said. "Teams are trying to achieve success in a cap era where spending smart is vital, and the ability to consistently retain cap flexibility is equally important. Culturally, there's an emphasis on drafting your own and developing your own."

Winning teams have proven adept at doing just that: out-drafting and out-developing the competition.

Conversely, they generally aren't winning much on days like this Tuesday, when the 2014 free agency period begins. And so, as we all ring the bell in anticipation for the grand opening of the market, the most instructive practice might be to watch the movements of the clubs avoiding the early action.

A study of the 12 playoff teams from last season revealed that the league's elite use free agency to augment rather than overhaul. Among the five highest-paid players on each playoff participant in 2013 -- a pool of 60 players total -- 42 represented home-grown talent while eight were acquired via trade. Just 10 were free-agent additions.

That list of 10 does include the Denver Broncos' Peyton Manning and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees, who were both coming off injuries that prompted their drafting clubs (the Colts and Chargers, respectively) to move on. After that, there were three offensive linemen (Gosder Cherilus with the Colts, Louis Vasquez with the Broncosand Ben Grubbs with the Saints), three defensive backs (Carlos Rogers with the 49ers, Derek Cox with the Chargers and LaRon Landry with the Colts) and two receivers (Wes Welker with the Broncos and Sidney Rice with the Seahawks).

Add it up, and you can see why general managers might have a hard time getting excited for a shopping spree.

"Established teams usually aren't involved," an AFC personnel exec said. "It's the teams struggling to make it to the next step. There's a sense of desperation there to throw money at the top guys. They don't think it'll hurt them, but then the guy doesn't produce. The Redskins, Buffalo, the Dolphins, theBrowns -- teams that historically come out strong and pay, they usually haven't drafted well, so there's not as much continuity. And it's no coincidence there's been a lot of turnover in those organizations."

There is a right way to do it, of course. A team might even hit on a big-ticket item. But discipline, the smart ones say, is the key.

So in advance of the market opening, we talked to a handful of decision-makers to compile the following list of guiding principles to which teams try to hold fast as the dollars start flying:

 

 

 

» Ask the most important question.That means finding out why a free agent is free in the first place. In most cases, guys who make it to free agency are, by definition, not core players. The trouble is that, in the first couple days of the league year, they wind up getting paid like they are.

"Teams covet their own, protect their own -- why is this guy free?" an NFC general manager said. "In some cases, it might be the team's third-best player, and he may be the best player on another team, and their own club just can't afford him. There are other cases where the team is making legitimate attempts and can't come to a deal. Or maybe the guy doesn't like the city or the stability of the club."

Generally, the franchise tag is an option, a piece of negotiating leverage that can help a club hang on to its own. But sometimes, even with that considered, things just don't work out. Mario Williams' case is a good example. The final year of his rookie deal with the Houston Texans carried an astronomical cap number that made using the tag a non-starter, and now he's with the Buffalo Bills. In other cases, as with Mike Wallace and the Pittsburgh Steelers last year, a team's wider cap problems can force a tough decision; Wallace ended up with the Miami Dolphins.

But the bottom line is this: If it's a player you have to have, you find a way to keep him in-house.

 

» Limit how much you project. In one sense, this principle is about projecting a player from one system to the next. But even more pronounced is the problem of projecting a role player into a more prominent spot.

"One that stands out is signing someone else's No. 2 receiver to be your No. 1. That's where the biggest mistakes are; those almost always fail," one NFC club executive said. "You can go through the list; that, to me, is always the cautionary tale. True No. 1 receivers usually don't become free agents. Same goes for pass rushers who have another really good rusher (to play) with, and get sacks, but their play doesn't match their sack total. It's players on good teams who have better stats because of cumulative team effect."

The exec pointed to Alvin Harper (Dallas to Tampa Bay), Peerless Price (Buffalo to Atlanta) and David Givens (New England to Tennessee) as examples of receivers who fall into that category. Paul Kruger and Adalius Thomas -- who bolted Baltimore for Cleveland and New England, respectively -- fit that bill as pass rushers. And expected early signee Eric Decker is a guy in this year's class who could fall along those lines.

» Watch your draft haul. The idea of hoarding compensatory picks might sound trivial, but some of the best (New England, Baltimore) don't view it like that. And sometimes, how a player got free or when he's available can push the pendulum one way or the other.

In other words, if you lose four and sign two, you'll get picks. If it's even or going the other way, you won't. But there's room to maneuver.

If a player is cut, he doesn't count toward the compensatory-pick equation, which explains why thePatriots moved quickly on Cardinals cast-off Adrian Wilson last year. And the same is true of players brought in after June 1, as was the case with the Ravens' signing of Daryl Smith last summer.

» Weigh the devil you know vs. the devil you don't. Some were surprised that Sam Shieldsreceived a four-year deal at $9.75 million per year from the Packers over the weekend, but whatever one might think of the contract, it's hard to argue that it represented a shot in the dark for Green Bay, which has had the 26-year-old cornerback in-house for four years. If the Packers had chosen instead to acquire someone from the outside, they would've been bringing in an athlete that they inherently would have had less information about.

"You're probably gonna overpay somewhere, and if you overpay for Peyton Manning or DeMarcus Ware or Richard Sherman, the elite players, that's OK," the AFC personnel exec said. "Where you really get in trouble is when you overpay for Paul Kruger. You set yourself back, because now that guy is making $8 million a year, and he's probably a $4 million-a-year player. ... You have to be strong with your evaluation of the player and avoid getting caught up in need."

Schein: Riskiest free agents
0ap1000000053195.jpgAs we head into spending season, Adam Scheinidentifies the most hazardous players hitting the NFL's open market. READ

Part of the evaluation is, again, figuring out who a guy is and why he's free, whether it's because of financial reasons or something rooted in performance or character. If you're going to shake up your salary structure on anyone, in-house or not -- and other guys on the team will notice -- you have to try to know what you're buying and what message it will send, something that's much easier to do with a player who has been around your block.

******

And all of this said, it's not like there's any one way to do it.

The two outliers among the 12 teams studied above happened to be the two that made it to the Super Bowl. Seattle traded for Marshawn Lynch, Percy Harvin and Chris Clemons and signed Rice (who hassince been released), leaving Russell Okung as the only home-grown player in its top five last year. Denver counted Manning, Welker and Vasquez as free-agent additions and traded for Champ Bailey (who was also recently released) way back when, making Ryan Clady the lone lifetime Bronco in the high-rent district of the payroll for 2013.

But even with regard to those teams, the situation will correct itself when guys like Sherman, Earl Thomas, Russell Wilson, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Von Miller get paid. In fact, the very reason those teams could be so aggressive with other clubs' players was because they had a solid core in place, with players still playing on rookie deals.

 

 

 

There are outside factors that could drive the market again. There are fewer locales where coaches and GMs are on the hot seat -- owners are quicker to fire these days, meaning some of the would-be "win or else" situations have been eliminated -- but those decision-makers still facing such scenarios might yet spread some money around. Also, the minimum spending threshold could pressure clubs like Oakland, Jacksonville and Cleveland to start playing catch-up soon.

For the most part, though, the teams around the league have become wise to the fallacies of free agency. More than two decades in, the moves clubs make are generally more methodical and -- even more so -- marked by the mistakes others have made in the past.

As the NFC exec says, "Free agents are free for a reason."

So the race might be on when Tuesday comes. But if you want to find the winners, you might want to look for the guys who are waiting to leave the starting blocks.

Follow Albert Breer on Twitter @AlbertBreer.

 

http://www.nfl.com/freeagency/story/0ap2000000332415/article/nfl-free-agency-inspires-caution-among-leagues-winning-teams

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Bengals1181 Hall Of Fame

Bengals1181

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The Bengals are never big players in the free agency market and history has shown that to be a smart move. Free agency is exciting, but rarely are championship teams built through big free agency signings. Successfully navigating free agency requires self-control and due diligence.

 

Free Agency begins on Tuesday and Bengals fans are already sitting on the edge of their seats, dreaming of what players Uncle Mike may (or may not) put in Bengal stripes this offseason. Before free agency begins, let me proactively bring the voice of reason to Bengal Nation.

Mark my word, by late Tuesday/early Wednesday Bengals fans everywhere will be collectively losing their minds and cursing Uncle Mike about how "quiet" the Bengals are being in free agency - and believe me, the Bengals will be quiet out of the gate, unlike most fans. It's guaranteed to happen and I am here to help you control your blood pressure through the process.

Successful franchises navigate the free agency market far differently than unsuccessful franchises, and whether we want to admit it or not, the Bengals have become a well-run organization when it comes to free agency and the draft. They don't overspend and they take the best player available. So, when the free agency "start gun" goes off on Tuesday, keep the following in mind:

1) Good Teams Sit back and Watch the Initial Buying Spree Happen

The first day of NFL free agency is like Black Friday in the NFL...well, except rather than a frenzy for good money saving deals, organizations rush to sign overpriced players that will more than likely under produce. Seems backwards doesn't it? Don't believe me? How did that Mike Wallace signing work for the Dolphins in 2013? Or Dannell Ellerbe,Philip Wheeler, etc? According to the "Experts," the "March Dolphins" and their shiny new $121M toys were going to overtake the Patriots...at least until football started to be played. How about the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles (Asomugha)? Or the Redskins signing of Pierre Garcon (2012) orAlbert Haynesworth (2009)? The list goes on and on.

2) Buyer Beware

Other than the extremely rare occasion (Brees or Manning), teams rarely allow really good players hit the free agency market, and in the rare chance they do, it is either because the player is greatly over-valuing himself or has injury concerns. In Brees's and Manning's cases, they both had career threatening injury concerns AND their teams already had franchise quarterbacks ready to take their place (Rivers and Luck). So, when a big name hits the market, before a team signs said player, they better do a deep evaluation of why his former team has "allowed" him to become a free agent.

3) Don't Over Pay for Past Production

If you are going to pay big money in free agency - and that is a big IF - it is key to spend it for future production, not past production. Wrapping up big money in older players - especially older players of another team - is a mistake. A good rule of thumb is not to wrap up big money in years after a player turns 32 (unless it is a QB).

4) Sign Fits, Not Names

In football, more than any other sport, a player can truly be a product of the system. We see it countless times with free agents that sign big deals and massively underperform because they are put in roles that didn't fit. TJ Houshmanzadeh was a perfect example. He thrived in his role for the Bengals as a No. 2 and slot receiver. Houshmandzadeh (and theSeahawks) felt he could be a No. 1 - they couldn't have been more wrong. Houshmandzadeh lasted one year in Seattle, one year in Baltimore and a partial year in Oakland, never coming close to his success in Cincinnati.

5) Take Locker Room Culture and Chemistry into Account

Tigers don't change their stripes (no pun intended), and they especially don't change once they are handed a lucrative contract. Take a low character guy and give him lots of money and it doesn't change his behavior for the better, it accelerates the poor behavior. Best example = Albert Haynesworth and Terrell Owens.

6) Free Agency is for Filling Roles - The Draft is for Building Teams

Try and find a good team that has been built through free agency. It doesn't happen. Good teams are built through the draft, not through free agency. Who are the best teams in the last ten-plus years? Patriots.Steelers. Ravens. Packers. None of which are big players in free agency.Cowboys. Redskins. Jets. All teams that sign big free agents and all teams that have a poor track record of success.

7) Beware of the "Contract Year Performance Bump"

Nothing should send up more red flags than a guy that is underwhelming his entire contract and then explodes in his contract year. Give the guy a big long-term deal and you take away his motivation. Nothing is worse than a high priced unmotivated player.

8) Don't Spend for the Sake of Spending

Most fans believe that by spending money, you are improving the team. Nothing could be further from the truth. Spending for the sake of spending is a sure fire recipe for success. A team is better off not spending any money than spending for the sake of spending.

9) The Teams that "Win" the Offseason Rarely Win During the Season

Every year a team dominates the free agency period and captures all the "contender" publicity. Teams in recent memory: 2013 Dolphins; 2011 Eagles; 2009 Redskins - all looked great on the books and terrible on the feield.

10) Don't Get Cute with the Cap!

Fans like it ...in the short term. In the long term teams are forced to cut big name players and are hindered in future free agency periods. Watch what will happen with the Dolphins in the next few years. Other teams that like getting cute with the cap include Dallas and Washington - how's that working?

 

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/3/11/5495418/rules-successful-free-agency

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Bengals1181 Hall Of Fame

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DeMarcus Ware remains one of the most feared defenders in the NFL, but must avoid further injuries.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

We all know this by now, but every couple years or so it still bears repeating when one NFL team seizes the spotlight and monopolizes most of the headline moves made in March: Despite all appearances, the Denver Broncos did not win next season's Super Bowl in the opening 24 hours of free agency. It just feels that way.

And for the 2014 Broncos' sake, they had best do everything they can to fight that feeling.

First off, an admission: I like the aggressive, all-in approach defending AFC champion Denver adopted in an attempt to dramatically upgrade its defense. Adding Browns safety T.J. Ward, Patriots cornerback Aqib Talb and Cowboys defensive end/linebacker DeMarcus Ware -- at the cost of a hefty $60 million in guarantees -- should put the Broncos defense nearly on equal footing with its record-breaking offense. And for a team that has only had to hold most of its opponents under 30 points to win, that has to be quite the comfort zone to inhabit.

So what's to worry about if you're Denver, fresh off two consecutive 13-3 seasons and last year's return to the Super Bowl for the first time in 15 years? These weren't glamor moves made just to energize a fan base or sell hope to a franchise that has lost its way for far too long. These were expensive but potentially perfect acquisitions to improve Denver's deficiencies in the secondary and in the pass rush.

These were the proverbial final pieces of the puzzle. Kudos to John Elway and Co. for going out and locking them into place.

BURKE: DeMarcus Ware signing continues win now attitude for Broncos

But even knowing all that, and understanding the Broncos' plan, I still can't dismiss the lingering sense that Denver's spending spree might not work out as planned. Because when has any team's free agency splurge -- at least on the Super Bowl-or-bust level -- truly gone as planned? I can't decide if their high-profile acquisitions of the past two days makes the Broncos the most massive Super Bowl favorites in recent memory, or merely the latest ill-fated "dream team'' candidate?

Teams making the kind of free-agent shopping expenditures that Denver just made have not seen the story end happily. The on-paper improvement that seemed so obvious in March has not translated to on-field production in the fall. Miami last year, Philadelphia in 2011, Washington in any number of the early seasons of Daniel Snyder's ownership -- they all fit the profile. Dismiss the trend if you dare, but NFL teams that win the offseason don't usually win the postseason.

In recent professional team sports, history says adding too many shiny new parts to a roster can lead to unforeseen chemistry issues and a lack of locker room cohesion. Multiple big signings also build expectations up to sky-high levels that become burdensome to teams, not helpful. Somehow, the whole has often become less than the sum of its parts in such situations. And more all-star talent hasn't usually produced the desired results -- the Miami Heat exception notwithstanding.

So hurrah for Denver's willingness to go for it while the Manning-provided Super Bowl window of opportunity stays open for a little longer, but caution to those who think all that talent is destined to come together seamlessly in the Mile High City. It will register as a bigger upset if it does, rather than the other way around.

I know. I know. Show me another all-in, go-for-broke, big-spending team in free agency that had league MVP Peyton Manning at quarterback and was already a Super Bowl-level club. That's the difference, many say, and those are valid points. It does seem like an unprecedented splurge to be making for a franchise coming off a Super Bowl season. Usually it's a club trying to make a name for itself and break out of the doldrums, not a defending conference champion. The Super Bowl teams generally are in a defensive mode, doing all they can to retain their own free agents and fight off the effects of their success on their own salary cap. Not staying on the offensive, in lean-forward mode.

NIESEN: Broncos invest in their defense with three pricey signings

True, but here's another fact that can't be denied, no matter how much the Broncos might wish to ignore it : You have to beat long odds to just get back to the Super Bowl in successive years. The 2003-04 Patriots were the last team to reach two consecutive big games; the 1993 Bills were the last Super Bowl team to earn its way back after losing the game the year before; and in the scenario that Denver must try to emulate, the 1972 Dolphins of 17-0 fame are the most recent NFL team to lose the Super Bowl one year and then rescale the mountain and win a ring the next season.

That was more than 40 years ago. Before free agency changed the game and before Manning was even born. And to that, all I can add is that sometimes history teaches us things, and sometimes it means little. It doesn't mean it can't happen again. It doesn't mean it won't happen again. It just means it hasn't happened in quite a while. Being open to interpretation, maybe that statistic portends that Denver won't reach its goal this season despite its obvious talent upgrade. Or maybe, if you're an optimistic Broncos believer, it says John Fox's team is about to go 19-0 and win it all. Good luck with that reading.

No matter how glitzy the signings, there are no guarantees supplied by free agency, even though Denver's moves have been well-received. The Broncos certainly look much stronger on defense with Ware, Talib and Ward joining the likes of on-the-mend veterans like Von Miller, Chris Harris and Derek Wolfe, as well as productive defensive tackle Terrance Knighton. But things have a way of getting complicated for Super Bowl contenders, as Denver learned in 2013, overcoming much to win the AFC.

I don't really buy it, but what if Dallas' assessment of Ware proves more correct than Denver's, and he's heading for the downside of his career, rather than a return to elite form in 2014? What if Talib's relatively quiet and productive New England tenure turns out to be the exception, and the inconsistencies of his stint with Tampa Bay are replicated to some degree with the Broncos? (He has a history of marijuana use, and now he's moving to Colorado, where weed has been legalized for recreational use). What if Ward doesn't supply the impact as the in-the-box safety Denver needs and expects?

The Broncos look loaded, but looks are deceiving in the NFL, and it's one reason the game consistently surprises us. Denver realizes everything will have to be re-earned this season, and the roster upgrade may give it the best possible shot at taking that last step, the one the Broncos have been plotting since the moment they signed Manning in 2012.

It's the only step that matters in Denver this season, winning the Super Bowl and finishing the job in the brief time left in Manning's Hall of Fame career. It was a giddy and productive 24 hours for Denver, to be sure. But the success of free agency and what unfolds next season might wind up being very different things. The Broncos felt the need to spend big on some big names and hopefully reap big results. But free agency at that level is always a roll of the dice, and even the best-laid plans can look like poor gambles in time.


Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20140312/broncos-spending-demarcus-ware-aqib-talib-tj-ward/#ixzz2vq9keTS3

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happyrid Hall Of Fame

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The Bengals have definitely figured out the compensatory pick rules and seem to be playing that game.

Can't argue with the strategy as they have been hitting on a lot of mid round picks lately. And it just gives you so much flexibility to head into the draft every year with 9 or 10 picks.

So look for us to bring in a bunch of guys who were cut instead of normal FAs.

Also look for us to wait and maybe make a late addition after June 1 as I believe any guy signed after that doesn't count in the compensatory pick calculations.
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Bengals1181 Hall Of Fame

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The Bengals have definitely figured out the compensatory pick rules and seem to be playing that game.

Can't argue with the strategy as they have been hitting on a lot of mid round picks lately. And it just gives you so much flexibility to head into the draft every year with 9 or 10 picks.

So look for us to bring in a bunch of guys who were cut instead of normal FAs.

Also look for us to wait and maybe make a late addition after June 1 as I believe any guy signed after that doesn't count in the compensatory pick calculations.

 

 

yea the Bengals, Patriots, and Ravens really seem to have the Compensatory system down.

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Ravens especially.

 

It seems in recent years the drafts have been getting deeper.  I wouldn't say that the number of truly "elite" players has risen much, but it does seem like the number of guys I'd be happy with in the second/third round seems to grow bigger every year, and this year falls somewhere in the mid 4th to 5th.

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Khatmandude Hall Of Fame

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I'm sure several playoff teams have also spent in FA.....last year, the SB winning Seattle Seahawks spent plenty of money in FA on outside guys.   SF signed their fair share of guys.  Those 2 teams are widely considered to be 2 of the best in the NFL.  Redskins of past/Browns types and Bengals types are almost opposite ends of the spectrum regards to FA signings and if you look at real success, neither strategy has really paid off. 

 

I think the benefits FA provides are there, just have to be smart about it vs signing a guy for the sake of making headlines.  

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Bengals1181 Hall Of Fame

Bengals1181

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I'm sure several playoff teams have also spent in FA.....last year, the SB winning Seattle Seahawks spent plenty of money in FA on outside guys.   SF signed their fair share of guys.  Those 2 teams are widely considered to be 2 of the best in the NFL.  Redskins of past/Browns types and Bengals types are almost opposite ends of the spectrum regards to FA signings and if you look at real success, neither strategy has really paid off. 

 

I think the benefits FA provides are there, just have to be smart about it vs signing a guy for the sake of making headlines.  

 

 

IMO the best moves the 49ers have made in free agency in recent years has been trading away late round picks for veterans to fill out their roster.  I wouldn't mind the Bengals doing more of that with their 5th-7th rounders.

 

The 49ers basically got a steal in Johnathan Martin for a 6th rounder.  They also got Anquan Boldin for a 6th rounder last year.  

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Oldcat Hall Of Fame

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IMO the best moves the 49ers have made in free agency in recent years has been trading away late round picks for veterans to fill out their roster.  I wouldn't mind the Bengals doing more of that with their 5th-7th rounders.

 

The 49ers basically got a steal in Johnathan Martin for a 6th rounder.  They also got Anquan Boldin for a 6th rounder last year.  

 

Actually we have been doing that too.  Taylor Mays, Reggie Nelson, Brian Leonard.  Not quite as old as Boldin, but same idea.

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