Football Scientist Article

[coup000]

This week, I will introduce a new metric called forced incompletions. A forced incompletion occurs when a defensive back makes some form of contact with the receiver and/or ball, causing a pass to be incomplete.

There are three different types of forced incompletions -- passes defensed, stripped passes and snotbubble hits. A cornerback is credited with a pass defensed when he hits the ball prior to it reaching the receiver. A stripped pass refers to when the defender pulls the ball away from the receiver after the receiver gets his hands on it. The snotbubble hit is a play where a defender breaks up a pass with a big hit. I named this metric snotbubble in honor of Lawrence Taylor, who used the term to describe a hit on a ballcarrier. Taylor said a little snotbubble would come out of the player's nose.

The forced incompletion metric tracks how often a defensive player makes one of these plays. The top 10 in total number of forced incompletions were as follows:

Forced incompletions
Rank Cornerback Team Total
1 Anthony Henry Dallas 20
2 Asante Samuel New England 18
3 Rashean Mathis Jacksonville 17
4 Chris McAlister Baltimore 14
5 Dre' Bly Detroit 14
6 Johnathan Joseph Cincinnati 12
7 Leigh Bodden Cleveland 12
8 Nate Clements Buffalo 11
9 Charles Woodson Green Bay 11
10 Nick Harper Indianapolis 11

This list is not surprising, as it contains a number of players known for being physical in coverage. The list of the 10 cornerbacks with the best forced-incompletion percentage contains a few more surprises:

Forced incompletion percentage
Rank Cornerback Team Percentage
1 Leigh Bodden Cleveland 30.8
2 Sammy Davis San Francisco 24.1
3 Asante Samuel New England 22.8
4 Anthony Henry Dallas 21.3
5 Eric Green Arizona 20.0
6 Rashean Mathis Jacksonville 19.3
7 Demarcus Faggins Houston 19.1
8 Johnathan Joseph Cincinnati 19.0
9 Nnamdi Asomugha Oakland 19.0
10 Ken Lucas Carolina 18.9

Many personnel people have been touting Cleveland's Leigh Bodden as one of the better cornerbacks in the league the past couple of years, and this metric provides some evidence why.

However, while the forced incompletion metric is a good indicator of how effectively a cornerback can play a physical brand of coverage, it doesn't necessarily correlate to good overall performance. Sammy Davis and DeMarcus Faggins both ranked in the top 10 in forced incompletion percentage, but their overall YPA was over 10 yards (10.5 for Davis, 10.0 for Faggins). This means when Davis or Faggins weren't able to get their hands on a pass, they likely were beaten.

One other surprise in this category was Champ Bailey. He had a forced incompletion rate of only 6.3 percent, a figure that ranked 81st in that category. Bailey's numbers show that a cornerback doesn't necessarily have to get his hands on a pass to shut down a receiver. Bailey's effective use of angles and coverage technique, and the fact that a great deal of the passes thrown his way came at the short depth level, allowed him to post a league-leading 4.7 YPA.


[url="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2974252"]ESPN.com[/url]

[Jamie_B]

Chris Gamble didnt make any of these lists, (and has had a few years in the league). Ya think those of you screaming for him (and still mentioning his name) might have been, and still are, wrong?

[Jason]

JoJo is one of only 5 CBs on both of those lists.

I seem to recall he had a pretty good yards per attempt average, and led the league in near interceptions too.

And he was just a rookie. Looks like we have something special in JoJo.

[Palmer4HOF]

i really really like these sports scientist articles...

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='Palmer4HOF' post='528115' date='Aug 15 2007, 01:27 PM']i really really like these sports scientist articles...[/quote]


im about 75/25 mixed in favor of them myself

specificly because of their gathers article, i really didnt think there was enough data on gathers to give a fair analysis

[turningpoint]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='528103' date='Aug 15 2007, 01:14 PM']Chris Gamble didnt make any of these lists, (and has had a few years in the league). Ya think those of you screaming for him (and still mentioning his name) might have been, and still are, wrong?[/quote]


no he still would of been a better pick then perry.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='turningpoint' post='528147' date='Aug 15 2007, 02:37 PM']no he still would of been a better pick then perry.[/quote]


how can you possibly know that being that perry hasnt really been able to contribute?


no wait, ill answer for you.. [b]YOU DONT[/b]

[Jason]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='528148' date='Aug 15 2007, 02:39 PM']how can you possibly know that being that perry hasnt really been able to contribute?
no wait, ill answer for you.. [b]YOU DONT[/b][/quote]

Maybe it's in part [b]because[/b] Perry hasn't been able to contribute.

He'd make a better punt returner than Kiewan too.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='Jason' post='528157' date='Aug 15 2007, 03:22 PM']Maybe it's in part [b]because[/b] Perry hasn't been able to contribute.

He'd make a better punt returner than Kiewan too.[/quote]


I guess what I was getting at was the notion that assuming neither of them has been injured, who was the best overall talent at their position at the time?

[Jason]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='528160' date='Aug 15 2007, 03:28 PM']I guess what I was getting at was the notion that assuming neither of them has been injured, who was the best overall talent at their position at the time?[/quote]

That is an interesting debate, but I look at it differently. Our offense is damn good even without Perry. Our defense needs help. Gamble would be a help at a position of greater need on D. And, as I said above, he'd be a better punt returner too, helping another area of need.

And it doesn't hurt that he would be a Buckeye replacing a Wolverine.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='Jason' post='528162' date='Aug 15 2007, 03:31 PM']That is an interesting debate, but I look at it differently. Our offense is damn good even without Perry. Our defense needs help. Gamble would be a help at a position of greater need on D. And, as I said above, he'd be a better punt returner too, helping another area of need.

And it doesn't hurt that he would be a Buckeye replacing a Wolverine. [/quote]


Ok, but then your stuck with a lesser talent at one position than you could have had at another when both were still positions you needed (as Rudi was an uncertinanty).

It wasnt a bad pick, he's just been hurt too much but that wasnt something they could have forseen. In addition we had taken Weathersby that same year if I remember right, who by a number of accounts had first round talent before he got injured (Remember he fell to the 4th because of his injury). He didnt pan out, but that wasnt his fault either.

Carrer ending injuries happen, as do injuries that keep players off the field for extended time periods, and it sucks, but to say we should have done this or that instead when you dont have the forsight of who will get injured is stupid.

[fredtoast]

[quote name='Jason' post='528157' date='Aug 15 2007, 03:22 PM']He'd make a better punt returner than Kiewan too.[/quote]

NFL Career Punt Return statistics

_________#_____avg_____20+__40+
Gamble.......59.........7.0..........2.......1
Ratliff..........72.........7.5..........3.......2

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='fredtoast' post='528165' date='Aug 15 2007, 03:50 PM']NFL Career Punt Return statistics

_________#_____avg_____20+__40+
Gamble.......59.........7.0..........2.......1
Ratliff..........72.........7.5..........3.......2[/quote]


nice find fred.

[BengalsOwn]

Bringing up Gamble?

He would've been a much better pick than Perry. And would have been better than Tory James. And Deltha O'neal last year. And Keiwan Ratliff.

I don't see what Gamble has to do with anything in this thread really...

[Phatcat]

[quote name='Jason' post='528109' date='Aug 15 2007, 01:18 PM']JoJo is one of only 5 CBs on both of those lists.

[b]I seem to recall he had a pretty good yards per attempt average,[/b] and led the league in near interceptions too.

And he was just a rookie. Looks like we have something special in JoJo.[/quote]

I found the KC Joyner article where he listed jojoe in the underrated category for corners:

[i]Johnathan Joseph: His 7.3 overall YPA was already very good, and if his poor performance against the Saints was removed, his YPA would drop to a [b]mere 5.9 yards[/b]. He also helped the Bengals by leading the league in near interceptions (12).[/i]

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='BengalsOwn' post='528187' date='Aug 15 2007, 04:31 PM']Bringing up Gamble?

He would've been a much better pick than Perry. And would have been better than Tory James. And Deltha O'neal last year. And Keiwan Ratliff.

I don't see what Gamble has to do with anything in this thread really...[/quote]


Simply that there are those who contiue to say we should have taken him. I dont agree that he would have been better than Perry, its simple for you to say that seeing as Perry has been injured, but at the time no one could have know what Perry's future was. The point wasnt would Gamble have been better than James, O'neal last year or Ratliff, it was was gamble better than perry had perry been healthy. I dont agree with you on that at all. Also the other point and main one I was trying to make was Joeseph is obviously better than Gamble. Maybee juuuuuust maybee the coaching staff knows what its doing in terms of evaluating talent in the draft, and the fact that we passed on Gamble and now have a better DB in Joseph is proof.

[claptonrocks]

I like J-Joe's ability.. good tackler, hard hitte and breaks up passes.. Hope he doesnt turn out to have hands of stone though.. some picks would be nice