Hot Stove

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Lawman' post='604694' date='Dec 4 2007, 08:38 PM']Mods, my bad could you move this to the Anything but Bengals/Reds section. [/quote]
i didnt see this and posted one over there earlier. we can just have them in each forum since its big news

[Palmer4HOF]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='604693' date='Dec 4 2007, 08:37 PM']please tell me why the fuck a team that is YOUNG AND NOT READY TO WIN should trade part of their youth get to get a guy who has probably 3 prime years left and a 2 or 3 more solid years. this trade still leaves the team with 2 holes in the rotation and now a hole at 1B. technically this trade actually gives the reds more holes than they had before the trade.


and where was my evaluation of talent bad? votto is DEFINITELY a good 1B, if you disagree then you are a moron. Bailey is definitely going to be a # 2 SP and probably can be a # 3 this year.

if we were a top SP away from winning and had the depth to move these guys then it would be a good deal. we arent at that stage yet so there is NO POINT to make this trade.[/quote]

Reason 1) We have a window over the next 3 years to win. Once Harang and Arroyos contracts are up, that window is gone.

2) This could very well be Griffs and Dunns last year... You're not going to replace thier numbers with Bruce and Hamilton over the next few years (maybe in say 4 years), no matter what you say or think

3) Let's say we trade Votto and Bailey... Hatte is our lefty at first, and Cantu is a righty... no hole at first. Getting rid of Bailey doesn't create a hole because you actually plug that one with a starter whose already a number 1, and will be a number one for at least the 2 years he's here, and if we resign him say to an extra year or so, he's be the one for that long too.

How do you figure we aren't a top SP away from winning? You realize we're in the NL central right? Hypothetically let's say the deal we make is either Votto and say Bailey or Cueto, or Hamilton and say bailey or Cueto... and obviously some lower ranked prospects would be involved as well

Our roster would like :

Rotation: Bedard - Harang - Arroyo - Belisle - Tomko? Cueto? FA?

Bullpen: Cordero closing, Burton, Weathers, Coutlangus, Bray

Then either: DUNN - HAMILTON - GRIFF in the outfield (with Bruce in AAA until one goes down), and infield of Edwin - Gonzo - Philips - Hatte / Cantu

or

Dunn - Bruce - Griff and infield substitutes Hatte for Votto

I'm pretty sure we could win the central with that rotation and lineup. On top of that, we'd still hate Hatte, Freel, Gonzo, Kepp, and others we could deal to get a 4 or 5 starter.

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='Palmer4HOF' post='604688' date='Dec 4 2007, 08:30 PM']he strained an oblique...

and it's funny you say that given Bailey has injury history and hamilton does as well... you guys crack me up[/quote]

Indeed, Palmer4HOF, the strained oblique was his most recent injury! That goes along with the elbow ligament surgery he had, which kept him out for 18 months. Not to mention the knee injury that kept him out for several months in '05.

I wonder - did you check out his stats? You should, because there you will see that in his 4 'full' seasons, he has never pitched 200 innings, and only came close once: 137, 141, 196, 182. This from 27, 24, 33, and 28 starts each year. This shows chronic injury problems. For a team with a shoddy bullpen, I want as many innings as I can from my starters.

Lawman also pointed out the somewhat-troubling WHIP numbers, around 1.3-1.4 for each year before last year, when it dropped to 1.09. Granted, he comes from the AL East, but most top-shelf aces are going to be significantly below this number.

Oh, and Bailey picked up a groin in jury, the only serious injury I've heard of him having. He has a reputation for his sound mechanics, so I'm not so worried about him picking up arm problems. And he's very young, and still developing his offspeed stuff - even Bedard didn't really develop his 3rd pitch into a weapon until he was in the bigs.

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Go Tory Go!' post='604772' date='Dec 5 2007, 12:50 AM']Indeed, Palmer4HOF, the strained oblique was his most recent injury! That goes along with the elbow ligament surgery he had, which kept him out for 18 months. Not to mention the knee injury that kept him out for several months in '05.

I wonder - did you check out his stats? You should, because there you will see that in his 4 'full' seasons, he has never pitched 200 innings, and only came close once: 137, 141, 196, 182. This from 27, 24, 33, and 28 starts each year. This shows chronic injury problems. For a team with a shoddy bullpen, I want as many innings as I can from my starters.

Lawman also pointed out the somewhat-troubling WHIP numbers, around 1.3-1.4 for each year before last year, when it dropped to 1.09. Granted, he comes from the AL East, but most top-shelf aces are going to be significantly below this number.

Oh, and Bailey picked up a groin in jury, the only serious injury I've heard of him having. He has a reputation for his sound mechanics, so I'm not so worried about him picking up arm problems. And he's very young, and still developing his offspeed stuff - even Bedard didn't really develop his 3rd pitch into a weapon until he was in the bigs.[/quote]

GO TORY GO!

[Lawman]

Maybe some of you guys are getting your info from this site, if not enjoy:

[url="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/latest-erik-bed.html"]MLBTradeRumors[/url]

[b]UPDATE, 12-4-07 at 10:19pm[/b]: John Fay says the Reds are seriously pursuing Bedard. Wayne Krivsky won't reveal much, but Fay thinks Bailey, Votto, and another prospect might interest the Orioles.

[Palmer4HOF]

[quote name='Go Tory Go!' post='604772' date='Dec 5 2007, 12:50 AM']Indeed, Palmer4HOF, the strained oblique was his most recent injury! That goes along with the elbow ligament surgery he had, which kept him out for 18 months. Not to mention the knee injury that kept him out for several months in '05.

I wonder - did you check out his stats? You should, because there you will see that in his 4 'full' seasons, he has never pitched 200 innings, and only came close once: 137, 141, 196, 182. This from 27, 24, 33, and 28 starts each year. This shows chronic injury problems. For a team with a shoddy bullpen, I want as many innings as I can from my starters.

Lawman also pointed out the somewhat-troubling WHIP numbers, around 1.3-1.4 for each year before last year, when it dropped to 1.09. Granted, he comes from the AL East, but most top-shelf aces are going to be significantly below this number.

Oh, and Bailey picked up a groin in jury, the only serious injury I've heard of him having. He has a reputation for his sound mechanics, so I'm not so worried about him picking up arm problems. And he's very young, and still developing his offspeed stuff - even Bedard didn't really develop his 3rd pitch into a weapon until he was in the bigs.[/quote]

in 2002 (5 years ago) he had elbow surgery

2004 he was shut down because the O's suck, and didn't want to work up his innings count (not because he was injured) and didn't pitch that much because he was a ROOKIE bouncing around from the rotation to the bigs

2005 strained left knee

2006 no injuries

2007 strained oblique, could have come back to pitch, but the O's suck and shut him down


So he's had elbow surgery in the minors, a knee injury in 05, and an oblique injury in 07... I'm fine with that considering his numbers when he pitches.

Again, I'll trade a young first baseman and a young unproven starter in bailey for Bedard any day of the week.

[Lawman]

[quote name='Palmer4HOF' post='604811' date='Dec 5 2007, 07:52 AM']in 2002 (5 years ago) he had elbow surgery

2004 he was shut down because the O's suck, and didn't want to work up his innings count (not because he was injured) and didn't pitch that much because he was a ROOKIE bouncing around from the rotation to the bigs

2005 strained left knee

2006 no injuries

2007 strained oblique, could have come back to pitch, but the O's suck and shut him down


So he's had elbow surgery in the minors, a knee injury in 05, and an oblique injury in 07... I'm fine with that considering his numbers when he pitches.

Again, I'll trade a young first baseman and a young unproven starter in bailey for Bedard any day of the week.[/quote]

Check out my post in the Hot Stove league; after 1000pm the Reds were still interested. 11 teams are in-line for Bedard and the Reds are one.

Below the Rumor section there are some interesting posts. One poster had Baily, Votto and Hamilton for Bedard For those guys, why not go after Santana.

[Palmer4HOF]

[quote name='Lawman' post='604818' date='Dec 5 2007, 08:09 AM']Check out my post in the Hot Stove league; after 1000pm the Reds were still interested. 11 teams are in-line for Bedard and the Reds are one.

Below the Rumor section there are some interesting posts. One poster had Baily, Votto and Hamilton for Bedard For those guys, why not go after Santana.[/quote]

Yeah I'm pretty sure Bailey Votto and Hammy could net us Santana ! But damn...that's steep. I've alsoheard the O's might be trying to tack on Miggy Tejada as well to package with Bedard

[Lawman]

[quote name='Palmer4HOF' post='604821' date='Dec 5 2007, 08:16 AM']Yeah I'm pretty sure Bailey Votto and Hammy could net us Santana ! But damn...that's steep. I've alsoheard the O's might be trying to tack on Miggy Tejada as well to package with Bedard[/quote]

They want a catcher, Michael Barrett specifically. Maybe the the prospects were are dangling them is one of our minor league Catchers

[bengalrick]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='604650' date='Dec 4 2007, 07:15 PM']i would not trade bailey and bruce for bedard. i dont see the point. we wont win if we do that and we lose two parts of our bright future. we could get fucking johan santana for that offer. neither the redsox or the yankees are giving up that much for santana. And i wouldnt give them for johan either.[/quote]

agreed

[Lawman]

From the MLB Trade Rumor site: The latest.
Geoff Baker cautiously names the Mariners the frontrunners for Bedard, now that the Dodgers have vowed not to give up Jonathan Broxton. He says the front office is salivating over Bedard and could offer up some combination of Adam Jones, Wladimir Balentien, Brandon Morrow, and George Sherrill.

[bgwilly31]

The reds^ never win....

[Lawman]

[quote]ThurmanMunster @ Dec 4 2007, 07:15 PM
[b]i would not trade bailey and bruce [/b][u]for be[/u]dard. i dont see the point. we wont win if we do that and we lose two parts of our bright future. we could get fucking johan santana for that offer. neither the redsox or the yankees are giving up that much for santana. And i wouldnt give them for johan either[/quote]

[quote name='bengalrick' post='604855' date='Dec 5 2007, 10:19 AM']agreed[/quote]

BR,

The talk was Baily and Votto; never Bruce. Bruce is untouchable.

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Lawman' post='604976' date='Dec 5 2007, 03:21 PM']BR,

The talk was Baily and Votto; never Bruce. Bruce is untouchable.[/quote]
I MEANT bailey and votto.


i would trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. I would NOT trade bailey and votto or bailey and anyone. I want this team to get ANOTHER SP, not upgrade 1 unless they are upgrading someone not named Bailey or Cueto. Another SP needs to be added to Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, not swapped with one.

I do not want to trade a 1B who can play his next 10 years here and a SP who can pitch his next 10 years here for a SP who will be at his current value for 3-4 more seasons. i dont see the intelligence behind giving up 20 years worth of talent for a guy with 4-6 years of talent when the guy we are getting is NOT worth more than the #'s bailey and votto will put up.

[bgwilly31]

im sorry but i dont have that much confidence in baily Being a 3rd SP next year.

If we could trade that "IF" (baily) for a proven like bedard.

TAKE IT TAKE IT!!

[Bengals1181]

being the non-baseball officionado that I am, would Hamilton, Cueto, and some lesser prospect be enough to lure Bedard? I know they really want Bruce, but we are resisting that. Don't see us giving Votto, and we've at least seen what Bailey can do (as opposed to Cueto). I know some will say Bailey struggled, but so did Maddux, Avery, and Glavine their first year. It's called getting your feet wet.

[Lawman]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='604984' date='Dec 5 2007, 03:37 PM']I MEANT bailey and votto.


i would trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. I would NOT trade bailey and votto or bailey and anyone. I want this team to get ANOTHER SP, not upgrade 1 unless they are upgrading someone not named Bailey or Cueto. Another SP needs to be added to Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, not swapped with one.

I do not want to trade a 1B who can play his next 10 years here and a SP who can pitch his next 10 years here for a SP who will be at his current value for 3-4 more seasons. i dont see the intelligence behind giving up 20 years worth of talent for a guy with 4-6 years of talent when the guy we are getting is NOT worth more than the #'s bailey and votto will put up.[/quote]

Would you give up EE for Lincecum; if that's what the Giants want? In a fantasy trade, I would give up Dunn; opening room for Bruce.

If we could pick up Bedard and Lincecum and it would cost us Bailey, Votto and EE; would you do it?

Bedard (some saya poor man's Santana),Harang, Arroyo, Lincecum (Baily's replacement) and Cueto.

Keppinger can play third.

[Lawman]

Can a Mod merge my Hot Stove thread to here please.

Rumor update; this site is so cool.

[quote]The Reds traded Buck Coats to the Jays. They also released [b]Jorge Cantu[/b]. They now have an open spot on the 40-man roster.[/quote]

Sounds like anything involving Votto may be off the table.

[quote]Could the Rays re-acquire Josh Hamilton? There's speculation on the topic in Nashville.[/quote]

Not sur as to whom the Rays could be willing to part with

[Bengals1181]

Lawman, word is they possibly released Cantu so they can work out a contract with him directly rather than having to let the arbitrator decide what he's worth.

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Lawman' post='605006' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:33 PM']Can a Mod merge my Hot Stove thread to here please.

Rumor update; this site is so cool.



Sounds like anything involving Votto may be off the table.



Not sur as to whom the Rays could be willing to part with [/quote]
they released cantu to avoid arbitration and plan to negotiate a contract with him.

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Lawman' post='605000' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:22 PM']Would you give up EE for Lincecum; if that's what the Giants want? In a fantasy trade, I would give up Dunn; opening room for Bruce.

If we could pick up Bedard and Lincecum and it would cost us Bailey, Votto and EE; would you do it?

Bedard (some saya poor man's Santana),Harang, Arroyo, Lincecum (Baily's replacement) and Cueto.

Keppinger can play third.[/quote]
i would give EE for Lincecum even tho i love EE.


i dont want bedard. he costs too much. we could join the Santana trade for what we are giving up for Bedard. I wouldnt be interested in either. We are giving up too much. WE NEED TO ADD A SP, not UPGRADE. id rather go with Harang-Lincecum-Arroyo-Bailey-Cueto and keep Votto at 1B. that gives us a rotation that 3/5 of it can pitch at least another 10 years and it contains 2 top end starters in a couple of years in lincecum and bailey.

i honestly have no interest in bedard because he costs too much from players that SHOULD be on the 25 man this year and need to be if we plan on competing at all. if we lose bailey and votto to get bedard, our lineup gets SIGNIFICANTLY weaker, losing one of its better clutch and OBP players in votto and hte rotation gets an upgrade but doesnt get deeper. this team needs SP depth more than it needs a top end starter. if they could grab a # 3 caliber SP to add to harang, arroyo, bailey, cueto they will be way better off.


just wondering, what is the price tag for dan haren in a trade?

[Palmer4HOF]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='605010' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:46 PM']just wondering, what is the price tag for dan haren in a trade?[/quote]

Beane is asking for more than what the Twins are asking for Santana

[Palmer4HOF]

HOLY SHIT:

[quote]Santana/Reyes/Haren Blockbuster In The Works?

Just got an incredible rumor from a trusted New York sportswriter. Stay with me, because this one's crazy. But rest assured that if the source wasn't good, I wouldn't post it.

Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A's. Here's how it would go down:

Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A's
A's send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets
A's send Dan Haren to Twins
Twins send Johan Santana to Mets

Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson
A's get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey
Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot

The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It's known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey.[/quote]

FROM mlbtraderumors.com

Also, I wiill merge the two threads

[Palmer4HOF]

[quote name='Bengals1181' post='604999' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:21 PM']being the non-baseball officionado that I am, would Hamilton, Cueto, and some lesser prospect be enough to lure Bedard? I know they really want Bruce, but we are resisting that. Don't see us giving Votto, and we've at least seen what Bailey can do (as opposed to Cueto). I know some will say Bailey struggled, but so did Maddux, Avery, and Glavine their first year. It's called getting your feet wet.[/quote]

Hamilton, Cueto and 2 prospects for Bedard will garner thier interest... It's on the same level or higher than Bailey and Votto and 2 prospects.

However, I think Bedard get's shipped to the Dodgers who have an outstanding offer on the table that would be the equilvalent of us offering Bruce and Bailey roughly.

[quote name='Lawman' post='605000' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:22 PM']Would you give up EE for Lincecum; if that's what the Giants want? In a fantasy trade, I would give up Dunn; opening room for Bruce.

If we could pick up Bedard and Lincecum and it would cost us Bailey, Votto and EE; would you do it?

Bedard (some saya poor man's Santana),Harang, Arroyo, Lincecum (Baily's replacement) and Cueto.

Keppinger can play third.[/quote]

If we could move EE for Lincecum, the trade would have been made 3 days ago... It's going to cost a lot more than EE for Linc. Probably EE and Homer or EE and Cueto... but since they really need offense, an EE and Votto deal plus a prospect I bet could work.

[quote name='Bengals1181' post='605007' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:39 PM']Lawman, word is they possibly released Cantu so they can work out a contract with him directly rather than having to let the arbitrator decide what he's worth.[/quote]


[quote name='ThurmanMunster' post='605009' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:42 PM']they released cantu to avoid arbitration and plan to negotiate a contract with him.[/quote]

Everything I'm reading is Cantu was released so Krivsky can draft a player in the Rule V tommorow if he wants

[Lawman]

[quote name='Palmer4HOF' post='605012' date='Dec 5 2007, 04:56 PM']HOLY SHIT:

FROM mlbtraderumors.com

Also, I wiill merge the two threads[/quote]

Thanks, now others can post things I may miss.

I can't believe the Mets would let go Reyes.