Reds 2010 Predictions

[ThurmanMunster]

68 wins.

[#22]

depends on who they get in Free Agency.

I tend to think that a starting infield of
Hernandez
Rolen
Scutaro/Cabrera/Vizquel (yeah, I went there)
Phillips
Votto

is better than starting Edwin and Gonzo on the left side, and an outfield consisting of Gomes, Dickerson, Bruce, and Stubbs gives us a pretty good balance of power and speed.

Lineup looks better than the piecemeal bullshit we had last year, at least. Hopefully Rosales is not even needed as a backup by the time Spring Training rolls around.


Obviously, pitching is an issue, and the few mediocre or decent pitchers who are Free Agents this year are going to make some bank. Still, adding a Rich Harden or an Érik Bédard would make the pain of losing Volquez for 1/2 the season a little easier to take.

We will see if Castellini wants to make this team a viable franchise or not this offseason.


75 Wins.

[JBandJoeyV]

Way too early, but I dont see how we are gonna be 10 games worse next year then this year. I think we will be just as good if not better.

Some of my posts from another thread...

"SS, 3rd base, RF, CF will all be improved next year, hell they have to with those positions all batting in the low .200s. Anyone at SS>unhealthy gonzo/hairston/whoever else played there this year....Rolen in 2010>EE and Rosales in '09. Bruce in 2010 will have to be better then Bruce in 2009, at least with his batting average. Stubbs or pretty much anyone > Willy T in 2009.

2nd and 1st should stay about the same. Catcher probably about the same as well. Votto might not hit .340 like he did the beginning of the year, but his final stats his BA will only be in the low .300s which will probably stay the same next year. Phillips is having his typical year, he wont decline I dont think, might even improve a little. Catcher might stay around the same as it was as a whole this year.

LF who knows? If Gomes gets to play a lot next year maybe he could keep up with his stats that he put up this year. Or it could be worse depending on whos out there.

Either way, position wise I think we almost have to improve in 4 positions, stay the same in 2 or 3. And get worse in 1 maybe 2.

Pitching is another story. But if we go into next year with Harang and Arroyo, there is no reason they wont do as good next year as they have done this year (which is not that good). Arroyo is 12-12 with a 4.3 era. He can easily do that next year. Harang 6-14 with a 4.21 era. His era might stay around the same next year but his Win loss record should improve a little.

So theres 2 pitchers who should be about the same next year, maybe a little better/little worse but its not like they had stellar years.

Cueto has improved since last year, and theres no reason to think he wont continue to improve. He is 9-10 with a 4.5 era this year. He will definitely improve upon those stats next year if he stays healthy. Bailey has also improved a lot through the year. Hes 5-4 with a 5.9 era, but he has pitched a lot better recently. He will be improved next year.

5th starter who knows? But our 5th starter hasnt been great this year so there is no reason that our 5th starter cant do next year what it did this year or improve.

So I dont see any of our starters declining on their full season stats from this year.


Sooo...what makes you guys think we will be worse next year? "

"Also, there was a 40 game stretch of the season where we went 10-30. During this stretch Rolen missed a lot of games to injury, Bruce out the whole time, Phillips hurt, Hanigan and Hernandez both hurt, Cueto, Volquez, Owings all hurt, CD hurt.

Besides that stretch where we were playing with a bunch of triple A guys we are 9 games over .500 on the season.

Now obviously you just cant take out a chunk of the season that is 25% of the year. But my point remains that this team isnt that bad, they just got really really unlucky. If they didnt have as many injuries I think you are talking about a .500 team right now. You may agree or disagree, but this team still has a lot of talent. "



"By the way...2009 Starting lineup

1st Base-Votto-Spent time on DL
2nd Base Phillips-short stint on DL
SS Agonzo-lots of time on DL
3rd Base EE- Lots of time on DL
C-Ramon Hernandez-Lots of time on DL
RF-Jay Bruce-lots of time on DL
CF-Taveras-time on DL
Chris Dickerson-time on DL

LF is really the only position where we havent had a big injury if you dont count CD.

Starting Pitching

Harang-Stint on DL near end of season
Volkie-long time on DL
Cueto-Stint on DL
Owings-Stint or 2? on DL
Arroyo only pitcher to not spend much time on DL
"

And that team only finished 6 games under .500

[ThurmanMunster]

The odds of Harang being on this team on opening day are 0% according to what I have been told.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' date='12 November 2009 - 12:05 AM' timestamp='1257998730' post='826222']
The odds of Harang being on this team on opening day are 0% according to what I have been told.
[/quote]


according to who?

[#22]

I read a rumor yesterday that said that the team is trying to unload a lot of its more expensive players, and named Harang, Arroyo, and (GASP) Phillips.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' date='12 November 2009 - 12:05 AM' timestamp='1257998730' post='826222']
The odds of Harang being on this team on opening day are 0% according to what I have been told.
[/quote]
]

It would be a good move to get rid of arroyo and harang, we can have guys put up their stats for half the amount of money. Plus it would give us more money to spend elsewhere.

[ThurmanMunster]

it wouldnt be to spend. we are reducing payroll.

[#22]

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/11/10/money-worries-could-force-reds-to-move-all-star-phillips-others/?ncid=txtlnkusspor00000002

I don't give two shits about Harang or Arroyo, but if they deal Phillips, I am done with this team.
Thankfully, I still have the San Francisco Giants.

Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Penny
Zito

=
World Series

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='#22' date='12 November 2009 - 12:17 PM' timestamp='1258042645' post='826320']
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/11/10/money-worries-could-force-reds-to-move-all-star-phillips-others/?ncid=txtlnkusspor00000002

I don't give two shits about Harang or Arroyo, but if they deal Phillips, I am done with this team.
Thankfully, I still have the San Francisco Giants.

Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Penny
Zito

=
World Series
[/quote]


Haha, all they'll need is a 20-win campaign from rookie Buttguarder, and another banner year from Penny, just like last year...or not. There is no less reliable source of quality pitching in MLB than that fatbody.

If the game was called "pitching," I might be inclined to agree with you, but it's not - it's called "baseball," and scoring runs is unfortunately kinda important too.

[#22]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Arizona_Diamondbacks_season


:rofl:

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='#22' date='12 November 2009 - 11:59 PM' timestamp='1258084794' post='826544']
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Arizona_Diamondbacks_season


:rofl:
[/quote]

[img]http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2008/09/25/quayle__1222381620_4187.jpg[/img]

"Pitcher, I knew Randy Johnson. I served with Randy Johnson. Randy Johnson was a friend of mine. Pitcher, you're no Randy Johnson." (Or Curt Schilling, for that matter.)

Also, how do you account for the fact that the Giants' version of Luis Gonzalez c. 2001 has been run out of baseball?

:rofl: :rofl:

[ThurmanMunster]

[quote name='Go Tory Go!' date='13 November 2009 - 01:46 AM' timestamp='1258091214' post='826565']
[img]http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2008/09/25/quayle__1222381620_4187.jpg[/img]

"Pitcher, I knew Randy Johnson. I served with Randy Johnson. Randy Johnson was a friend of mine. Pitcher, you're no Randy Johnson." (Or Curt Schilling, for that matter.)

Also, how do you account for the fact that the Giants' version of Luis Gonzalez c. 2001 has been run out of baseball?

:rofl: :rofl:
[/quote]


you act like the giants suck and have to make a major turn around. they were 88-74.

Pablo Sandoval is a 23 year old STUD who tore it up this year and should only improve with more experience. They will have Freddy Sanchez, a damn good hitter and 2B, for a full season. Bumgarner playing the full season with the 25 man is a boost to an already INCREDIBLE pitching staff. They have some solid talent in the minors that can come up or be traded for a bat and they have FA to pick up a bat or two since a lot of teams will not be spending money and the Giants can spend some. Giants will make the playoffs for sure and with the rotation they have they are a DEADLY team in the postseason.

[#22]

[Go Tory Go!]

[quote name='ThurmanMunster' date='15 November 2009 - 12:50 AM' timestamp='1258260640' post='827082']
you act like the giants suck and have to make a major turn around. they were 88-74.

Pablo Sandoval is a 23 year old STUD who tore it up this year and should only improve with more experience. They will have Freddy Sanchez, a damn good hitter and 2B, for a full season. Bumgarner playing the full season with the 25 man is a boost to an already INCREDIBLE pitching staff. They have some solid talent in the minors that can come up or be traded for a bat and they have FA to pick up a bat or two since a lot of teams will not be spending money and the Giants can spend some. Giants will make the playoffs for sure and with the rotation they have they are a DEADLY team in the postseason.
[/quote]

The Giants don't suck, but they aren't exactly on the verge of greatness. Their lineup is the most impotent thing since Bob Dole, and they may or may not have the 2nd biggest source of HR's on the team back next year (if they do, they'll be signing a 35 year old catcher...not exactly primed for improvement). And a full season of Freddy Sanchez you say, huh? WOW. Maybe aging, low-OBP players with durability issues and no power do it for you, but DO NOT WANT. And you people act like Bumguarder is going to rape. The guy is greener than Al Gore. This is not to say he won't continue the domination he showed in the minors. Who knows? The point is, he's as far from a sure thing as there is, and you therefore invite well-deserved skepticism when you parade him around -20 year old pitcher that he is - as a reason a 3rd-place team will suddenly not only win their division, but the league. Even great pitching prospects experience growing pains at that age - look at the years of mediocrity Peavy and Cain turned in before earning success. Bumguarder is basically a less-hyped Clayton Kershaw, and even with his quick maturation, Kershaw didn't make good until this year. Bumguarder could just as easily follow the path of the once-precocious David Bailey.

I'm not sure what makes you think the Giants will be expanding their payroll more than other teams. They probably have more payroll wrapped up in shit than any other team, simply by virtue of Zito. And the solid talent in their minors just had his visa revoked. (Before we have to hear about Posey's impending greatness, let me just say "Matt Wieters.")

tl;dr: The Giants' meek lineup is not improved and may, by virtue of age, be worse next year; their starting staff is good, but its ascendance to god-tier on the arm and belly of a 20 year old greenhorn and recently-released fatbody, respectively, is doubtful; and, you can have your emoticons back:

[|Bunghole|]

[quote name='Go Tory Go!' date='15 November 2009 - 11:22 PM' timestamp='1258345372' post='828501']
Their lineup is the most impotent thing since Bob Dole
[/quote]
Hee hee. That's pretty funny, but Dole was also a man of action:

From wiki:

[i]In 1942, Dole joined the United States Army's Enlisted Reserve Corps to fight in World War II. He became a second lieutenant in the Army's 10th Mountain Division.

In April 1945, while engaged in combat near Castel d'Aiano in the Apennine mountains southwest of Bologna, Italy, he was hit by German machine gun fire in his upper right back. His right arm was also badly injured. As Lee Sandlin describes, [size="5"]when fellow soldiers saw the extent of his injuries all they thought they could do was to "give him the largest dose of morphine they dared and write an 'M' for 'morphine' on his forehead in his own blood, so that nobody else who found him would give him a second, fatal dose."[5] He had to wait nine hours on the battlefield before being taken to the 15th Evacuation Hospital[/size]. He began a recovery that would last until 1948 at Percy Jones Army hospital in Battle Creek, Michigan, where he met future fellow politicians Daniel Inouye and Philip Hart. His right arm was paralyzed; Dole often carried a pen in his right hand to signal that he could not shake hands with that arm.

The hospital where he recovered from his wounds, the former Battle Creek Sanitarium, is now named Hart-Dole-Inouye Federal Center in honor of the three former U.S. Senators treated at the hospital: Philip Hart, Daniel Inouye and Dole himself.

Dole was three times decorated for heroism, receiving two Purple Hearts for his injuries, and the Bronze Star with combat "V" for valor for his attempt to assist a downed radio man.[/i]

Wow.

[#22]

[quote name='Go Tory Go!' date='16 November 2009 - 12:22 AM' timestamp='1258345372' post='828501']
The Giants don't suck, but they aren't exactly on the verge of greatness. Their lineup is the most impotent thing since Bob Dole, and they may or may not have the 2nd biggest source of HR's on the team back next year (if they do, they'll be signing a 35 year old catcher...not exactly primed for improvement). And a full season of Freddy Sanchez you say, huh? WOW. Maybe aging, low-OBP players with durability issues and no power do it for you, but DO NOT WANT. And you people act like Bumguarder is going to rape. The guy is greener than Al Gore. This is not to say he won't continue the domination he showed in the minors. Who knows? The point is, he's as far from a sure thing as there is, and you therefore invite well-deserved skepticism when you parade him around -20 year old pitcher that he is - as a reason a 3rd-place team will suddenly not only win their division, but the league. Even great pitching prospects experience growing pains at that age - look at the years of mediocrity Peavy and Cain turned in before earning success. Bumguarder is basically a less-hyped Clayton Kershaw, and even with his quick maturation, Kershaw didn't make good until this year. Bumguarder could just as easily follow the path of the once-precocious David Bailey.

I'm not sure what makes you think the Giants will be expanding their payroll more than other teams. They probably have more payroll wrapped up in shit than any other team, simply by virtue of Zito. And the solid talent in their minors just had his visa revoked. (Before we have to hear about Posey's impending greatness, let me just say "Matt Wieters.")

tl;dr: The Giants' meek lineup is not improved and may, by virtue of age, be worse next year; their starting staff is good, but its ascendance to god-tier on the arm and belly of a 20 year old greenhorn and recently-released fatbody, respectively, is doubtful; and, you can have your emoticons back:


[/quote]
Your metaphors are as tired as Rip Van Winkle. I know that that was a simile, but bear with me.
You may be forgetting that Posey was the Minor League player of the year last year and played the last 9 games of the season in SF. That, coupled with Spring Training against lightweights like the Reds, should make him more prepared than an Eagle Scout on a camping trip. Bumgarner pitched in 10 innings last year (1 start and 5 relief innings), but basically had 1 K/9, 3 walks, a whip of 1.10, and an ERA of 1.80.

and don't rule out Angel Villalona. If he can keep from getting all stabby on some Castro fun seekers, he has too much talent to keep out of the Majors.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265657.html
In 2008, he was rated as a better prospect than people like Johnny Cueto, Geovany Soto, and Joey Votto, and was the youngest on their list.

The Giants are certainly good enough to grasp the division from the flailing Dodgers.

[ThurmanMunster]

i fully expect the giants to win the division next year. i think they should resign bonds haha.

[#22]

I agree. Bonds is the fucking man.

[JC]

The Reds aren't going to make any significant moves at the winter meetings, are they?

[AmishBengalFan]

I predict:
(1) The Reds will surprise and compete near the top of the division into August. But they will probably lay an egg and get swept at home by a contender (Brewers? Cards?) and get bumped to the 2nd tier.
(2) St Louis will implode near season's end. LaRussa will be exposed for the mediocre manager that he his, their pitching staff will start to show their age, and they'll forget how to bat. They'll get embarassed by bottom-feeders like Pittsburgh, Houston and Chicago over a short period of a couple of weeks, and will just flat-out quit. They'll finish in 2nd, but will be out of it by mid-September.
(3) Someone will win the Central (Milwaukee?) by a wide margin and even have homefield advantage for the NLDS, but they won't get past the first round.
(4) Most of the usual suspects will make the playoffs - Los Angeles (x2), BosYork Yanksox (x2) and Philly plus sacrificial teams from the AL Central, NL Central and one surprising small market AL/NL west team.
(5) The BosYork Yanksox will continue to spend-spend-spend.
(6) 3-4 more mediocre players will make the Hall of Fame while Pete waits.

Sigh. I wish the Reds could get me interested in baseball again, but as it stands now, baseball is dead to me.

[JBandJoeyV]

Well most of you were wrong...

Notice I said most

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='AmishBengalFan' timestamp='1260384086' post='839319']
I predict:
(1) The Reds will surprise and compete near the top of the division into August. But they will probably lay an egg and get swept at home by a contender (Brewers? Cards?) and get bumped to the 2nd tier.
(2) St Louis will implode near season's end. LaRussa will be exposed for the mediocre manager that he his, their pitching staff will start to show their age, and they'll forget how to bat. They'll get embarassed by bottom-feeders like Pittsburgh, Houston and Chicago over a short period of a couple of weeks, and will just flat-out quit. They'll finish in 2nd, but will be out of it by mid-September.
(3) Someone will win the Central (Milwaukee?) by a wide margin and even have homefield advantage for the NLDS, but they won't get past the first round.
(4) Most of the usual suspects will make the playoffs - Los Angeles (x2), BosYork Yanksox (x2) and Philly plus sacrificial teams from the AL Central, NL Central and one surprising small market AL/NL west team.
(5) The BosYork Yanksox will continue to spend-spend-spend.
(6) 3-4 more mediocre players will make the Hall of Fame while Pete waits.

Sigh. I wish the Reds could get me interested in baseball again, but as it stands now, baseball is dead to me.
[/quote]

This post is amazingly accurate... Except the part about the Reds slipping to the second tier after being swept (by the cardinals)... Instead they went on to a "wide margin" lead in the Central... (I hope you weren't as accurate in predicting the fate of the Central Div's representative in the playoffs though!)