2009 Playoff Picture

[oldschooler]

[b]BYE WATCH:[/b] With the 8-3 Bengals staring at a possible second seed and bye in the AFC playoffs behind Indianapolis, the Dec. 20 game in San Diego against the 8-3 Chargers is shaping up to be huge. According to Bengals PR maven Jack Brennan, if the season ended today, or if the Bengals tie San Diego in their game, the Bengals would get the bye based on the better record against common opponents, which is currently 6-2 compared to 5-3 and could change.


If the Patriots are in the mix (and they could go to 8-3 Monday night with a win against New Orleans), New England would be eliminated in a three-way tie based on conference records. Any two-way tie would be broken in a head-to-head matchup.




[url="http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Monday-update-Benson-starts-vs-Lions-Sellout-in-jeopardy-Mickens-signs-Bye-watch/31edac62-c797-4666-a992-bf315ec7aa8c"]http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Monday-update-Benson-starts-vs-Lions-Sellout-in-jeopardy-Mickens-signs-Bye-watch/31edac62-c797-4666-a992-bf315ec7aa8c[/url]

[-GoBengals-]

so we are in good shape for the playoffs as long as we win at LEAST 2 more games, if we lose to the vikings, chargers, and the jets, which seems unlikely, but you never know.

we would be 10-6.

the Jags, Ravens and steelers would all have to win out to beat that record (which is impossible for the ravens/steelers since they play eachother once, and the jags play indy, houston, and new england still so NO CHANCE they win out and quite honestly probably lose 3 games and go 8-8...

so the broncos, steelers and ravens are the wild card contenders. say the steelers beat the ravens, they COULD win out. they ahve the easiest schedule in the league i beleive in the last 5 weeks..

we COULD get bumped, the broncos have an easy one as well.

but if the steelers lose another game the ravens arent likely to win out, GB might beat then this coming week, GB could beat pitt too or miami could

so basically if the steelers win out, we need to win 3 of the last 5 games and we still get the division.

if they snd the ravens lose one, we can go 2-3 and still win the division, and worst case a wildcard i would think.

broncos are in a good spot but could lose a few more too, but the schedule is cake..and ahve the tie breaker on us..

[Quaker]

Keep winning. Have to be focused on getting another "w" into the columns this week.

Don't know how to feel about a possible #2 spot and the bye. All that crap about momentum really. No matter where the Bengals may possibly seed in the postseason, they will be the underdog, even if playing a team that may be a lesser seed than them.

Indy pretty much has one of the 1st round bye's locked up.

That Bengal/Charger game is gearing up to be a pretty big game for playoff positon it seems like.

[oldschooler]

[b]PLAYOFF SCENARIOS:[/b] The earliest the Bengals could clinch the division is next week, but they would need to win this week against Detroit and next week against Minnesota coupled with Pittsburgh and Baltimore dropping one of their next two games.

That combination would give them a three-game lead with three to play. The Bengals hold all tiebreakers in the AFC North.

At 8-3, they remain the second seed in the AFC, which would give them a first-round bye. San Diego is also 8-3 but the Bengals have the tiebreaker based on common games. The two teams meet on Dec. 20.

Indianapolis, which has clinched the AFC South, is the top seed at 11-0 while AFC East leader New England is fourth at 7-4.




[url="http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20091201/SPT02/312010064/1066/Zimmer+happy+with+Bengals++defense"]http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20091201/SPT02/312010064/1066/Zimmer+happy+with+Bengals++defense[/url]

[Quaker]

AFCN Teams remaining schedules:

Cincy:
[i]Lions
Vikings
Chargers
Chiefs
Jets[/i]

Ravens:
[i]Packers
Lions
Bears
Steelers
Raiders[/i]

Pitt:
[i]Raiders
Browns
Packers
Ravens
Dolphins[/i]

I'm sure the Bengals have to know that wins this week and next week can essentially clinch the division for them so I like that. It may help keep them focused. The Bengals got the AFCN by the throat, time for the kill.

If the Vikings win this week and the Packers lose, the Vikings will have their division locked up. They could still be playing for position, but they might possibly know they are already in the playoffs before our game and we can catch them relaxing a little bit.

That Charger game is going to be a BIG, BIG, BIG game. Two top AFC teams could possibly be battling it out for position in the postseason. Could be a chance for a "flex" type game here. The scheduled 8:20 game is Vikings/Panthers, so, darn good chance, wouldn't ya' think?

Who the hell knows what the Ravens/Steelers will do, they've been so back and forth this season. Each team has the postential to keep on that path, but each also the potential to turn it on and make a run as well.

2 straight wins and it's all over for the division.

[AmishBengalFan]

The Bengals and Chargers both won, but the Chargers' victory was over the Browns (AFC) while the Bengals beat the Lions (NFC). This gives San Diego another conference victory, allowing them to move 1/2 game ahead of Cincinnati in the #2 tiebreaker, temporarily causing them to swap positions on the seeding board with the Bengals. The two team had previously been tied with 6-3 conference marks, and the Bengals had the advantage in the #3 tiebreaker (Common Games).

San Diego has only two more conference games remaining - us and Tennessee. We have three - them, Kansas City and the Jets. All of this is moot because the Bengals and Chargers go head-to-head in 2 weeks, the winner of that game will permanently own the tiebreaker between them. The only reason the #2 and #3 tiebreakers even matter is because they might come into play if the Bengals and Chargers tie their game, which is extremely unlikely.

[AmishBengalFan]

I'll update the OP after the 4pm games are done, but here's a mid-day standings update:

[b]Current AFC Playoff Picture:[/b]
[code]
Seed Team Division Record
1 @Indianapolis South 13-0-0
2 San Diego West 9-3-0
3 Cincinnati North 9-4-0
4 New England East 8-5-0
5 Denver West 8-5-0
6 Jacksonville South 7-6-0
Still alive
7 Baltimore North 7-6-0
8 Miami East 7-6-0
9 N.Y. Jets East 7-6-0
10 Pittsburgh North 6-7-0
11 Houston South 6-7-0
12 Tennessee South 5-7-0
13 Buffalo East 5-8-0
14 Oakland West 4-8-0
Eliminated:
15 Kansas City West 3-10-0
16 Cleveland North 2-11-0

@ - Clinched Home Field Advantage
+ - Clinched First Round Bye
* - Clinched Division
# - Clinched Playoff Berth[/code]

Miami finishes ahead of NY Jets for 2nd place in East due to 2-0 head-to-head
Jacksonville finishes ahead of Baltimore and Miami due to Conference Record (6-3 vs. Ravens' 6-4 and Dolphins' 5-4)

[b]Current NFC Playoff Picture:
[/b][code]
Seed Team Division Record
1 +New Orleans South 13-0-0
2 #Minnesota North 11-2-0
4 Arizona West 8-4-0
3 Dallas East 8-4-0
5 Green Bay North 9-4-0
6 Philadelphia East 8-4-0
Still alive
7 N.Y. Giants East 7-5-0
8 Atlanta South 6-7-0
9 San Francisco West 5-7-0
10 Carolina South 5-8-0
11 Chicago North 5-8-0
12 Seattle West 5-8-0
Eliminated:
13 Washington East 3-9-0
14 Detroit North 2-11-0
15 Tampa Bay South 1-12-0
16 St. Louis West 1-11-0

@ - Clinched Home Field Advantage
+ - Clinched First Round Bye
* - Clinched Division
# - Clinched Playoff Berth[/code]

[AmishBengalFan]

Okay, the OP is updated with only SNF and MNF left in week 14.

No change in the top 6 in the AFC. It's still Indy-SD-Cincy-NE-Denver-Jax.
In the NFC, Dallas has dropped to a wildcard spot, Philly is now the division leader, and they move ahead of Arizona based on a tiebreak. It's Saints-Vikings-Eagles-Cards-Packers-Cowboys.

We have fallen a game behind the Chargers for the #2 seed, making next week's show-down a must-win if we want the bye. If the Chargers win, they lock-down the #2 seed. If we win, then our magic number for the #2 seed becomes 2 to their 3. We finish with KC and the Jets, they close with Tennessee and Washington. Nobody's gonna catch the Colts.

If we don't secure the #2 seed, then it's us and (probably) the Pats for the #3 and #4 slots. We're 9-4 and 6-3 in the AFC. They're 8-5 and 5-4. All remaining games are conference ones for both teams, so if they tie us for overall record, they'll tie us for conference record as well. The next tiebreaker is common opponents, which are Jets, Ravens, Broncos and Houston. We are 2-2 with the Jets left to play. The Pats are 2-2 with the Texans left to play. Both of these games are during week 17. If we hold a one-game lead heading into week 17 and the Pats catch us, they'll win the tiebreaker 3-2 to 2-3. If we're even going into week 17 and come out still tied, this tiebreak will be a push. And if somehow we're a game behind heading into week 17 and we catch them, we'll win the tiebreak by the same 3-2 to 2-3 margin.

The next tiebreak is strength of victory. Here are the numbers as of right now:

.415 44-60 NE: BUF(5-8) ATL(6-7) BAL(7-6) TEN(6-7) TB(1-12) MIA(7-6) NYJ(7-6) CAR(5-8)
.393 46-71 CIN: GB(9-4) PIT(6-7) CLE(2-11) BAL(7-6) CHI(5-8) BAL(7-6) PIT(6-7) CLE(2-11) DET(2-11)

Our remaining opponents are SD(10-3) KC(3-10) NYJ(7-6)
Theirs are BUF(5-8) JAX(7-6) HOU(6-7)

If we lose to SD, I see no realistic way for our SOV to exceed NE's.

Bottom line: If we beat SD, we have the inside track for the #2 seed, and will likely get no worse than #3. If we lose to SD, the Pats gain the upperhand for the #3 seed and we look slotted to be #4.

Big game comin' up, boys and girls!

[AmishBengalFan]

Eagles beat NY Giants...no change in the NFC going into MNF/14

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='AmishBengalFan' date='13 December 2009 - 10:57 PM' timestamp='1260759429' post='842125']
Okay, the OP is updated with only SNF and MNF left in week 14.

No change in the top 6 in the AFC. It's still Indy-SD-Cincy-NE-Denver-Jax.
In the NFC, Dallas has dropped to a wildcard spot, Philly is now the division leader, and they move ahead of Arizona based on a tiebreak. It's Saints-Vikings-Eagles-Cards-Packers-Cowboys.

We have fallen a game behind the Chargers for the #2 seed, making next week's show-down a must-win if we want the bye. If the Chargers win, they lock-down the #2 seed. If we win, then our magic number for the #2 seed becomes 2 to their 3. We finish with KC and the Jets, they close with Tennessee and Washington. Nobody's gonna catch the Colts.

If we don't secure the #2 seed, then it's us and (probably) the Pats for the #3 and #4 slots. We're 9-4 and 6-3 in the AFC. They're 8-5 and 5-4. All remaining games are conference ones for both teams, so if they tie us for overall record, they'll tie us for conference record as well. The next tiebreaker is common opponents, which are Jets, Ravens, Broncos and Houston. We are 2-2 with the Jets left to play. The Pats are 2-2 with the Texans left to play. Both of these games are during week 17. If we hold a one-game lead heading into week 17 and the Pats catch us, they'll win the tiebreaker 3-2 to 2-3. If we're even going into week 17 and come out still tied, this tiebreak will be a push. And if somehow we're a game behind heading into week 17 and we catch them, we'll win the tiebreak by the same 3-2 to 2-3 margin.

The next tiebreak is strength of victory. Here are the numbers as of right now:

.415 44-60 NE: BUF(5-8) ATL(6-7) BAL(7-6) TEN(6-7) TB(1-12) MIA(7-6) NYJ(7-6) CAR(5-8)
.393 46-71 CIN: GB(9-4) PIT(6-7) CLE(2-11) BAL(7-6) CHI(5-8) BAL(7-6) PIT(6-7) CLE(2-11) DET(2-11)

Our remaining opponents are SD(10-3) KC(3-10) NYJ(7-6)
Theirs are BUF(5-8) JAX(7-6) HOU(6-7)

If we lose to SD, I see no realistic way for our SOV to exceed NE's.

Bottom line: If we beat SD, we have the inside track for the #2 seed, and will likely get no worse than #3. If we lose to SD, the Pats gain the upperhand for the #3 seed and we look slotted to be #4.

Big game comin' up, boys and girls!
[/quote]

As always, great analysis, Amish. Thanks!

[AmishBengalFan]

DIY Playoff Predictor

I just stumbled across two very nice online tools to allow you to project the results for remainder of the 2009 season in order to generate the predicted set of playoff teams and seeds, and then to take a set of playoff teams/seeds and simulate the post-season to see who might win it all.

Tool #1 - Yahoo NFL Playoff Scenario Generator
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

A - It starts with playoff seeds based solely on current records.
B - Use the pull-down menu to pick winners for the remaining games based on a number of different criteria - I use the Yahoo Team Ranker, but you can use anything from offensive/defensive rank, cumulative points scored/allowed, etc.
C - Once you've made your choice, Yahoo will pick winners for the remaining games based on that criteria and show you who the six seeds from each conference would be.
D - You can then tab through each week, changing any games you'd like to see what the results would be on the seeding.
E - Once done, make a note of the seeds for the next step

Tool #2 - Wall Street Journal's Design Your Own NFL Playoffs
http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/nfl/nfl.html

A - Drag/drop the six teams from each conference into their respective seed spots
B - Press the big blue START button. The site will compute the predicted probability of win for each game based on AccuStore's numbers, then randomly select a winner using that probability. For example, if the Jags were to visit PBS, AccuScore predicts a 66.5% chance of a Bengals victory.
C - Once the wildcard games are complete, the tool auto-populates the next round and lets you simulate it.
D - Wash, rinse, repeat

[AmishBengalFan]

MNF/14 - 49ers beat Cardinals. Arizona does not clinch the west, but nothing changes in the overall NFC standings as a result of the game.

[AmishBengalFan]

I've added two "TOOL" links to the top of the OP:

CBS 2009 Playoff Race: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace/seeds

This is the site at CBS Sports that is run by Joe Ferreira who has handled the NFL's tiebreaking duties for years. (He has the job *I* would want if the NFL would ever hire me.) He is the guy who comes up with the official weekly tiebreaks and clinching scenarios for the NFL, and he does it on a web page that is MUCH more browser- and bandwidth-friendly than the similar pages at NFL.com. I use his analysis and blog to help me keep this thread updated.

Yahoo Playoff Predictor: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

The same predictor link that I pimped a couple of posts ago. It lets you conduct a what-if analysis by selecting winners for all remaining regular season games to see what impact they have on the playoff seeds. Very useful, very cool.

[oldschooler]

[size="5"][b]NFL playoff picture[/b]
[/size]December, 18, 2009 By James Walker


Here is an updated look at the [url="http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/14045/nfl-playoff-picture"]NFL playoff picture[/url]. The [url="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/clubhouse?team=bal"]Baltimore Ravens[/url] (7-6) now control their own destiny, holding the final wild-card slot after the [url="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/clubhouse?team=jac"]Jacksonville Jaguars[/url] (7-7) lost to the [url="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/clubhouse?team=ind"]Indianapolis Colts[/url] (14-0) Thursday night.

Perhaps what's most interesting to AFC North readers is if the season ended today, the [url="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/clubhouse?team=cin"]Cincinnati Bengals[/url] (9-4) would host the Ravens in an AFC wild-card showdown.

Your thoughts?






[url="http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/7086/nfl-playoff-picture"]http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/7086/nfl-playoff-picture[/url]

[Le Tigre]

The only team I would rather face less, would be the Stealers.

I do not want to see another AFCN team again this season. No piss yellow dishrags and no Dancin' Ray.

[AmishBengalFan]

Here are the games on this weekend's schedule and the playoff implications of each:

Saturday, Dec. 19
=================

Dallas at New Orleans
* Cowboys win = Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks all eliminated
* Saints win = Saints can clinch homefield advantage based on other outcomes

Sunday, Dec. 20 - Early Games
=============================

Arizona at Detroit
* Cardinals win = Cardinals clinch NFC West if 49ers lose
* Lions win = 49ers remain alive for NFC West

San Francisco at Philadelphia
* 49ers win = 49ers remain alive for NFC West
* Eagles win = Eagles clinch playoff berth if Dallas also won, 49ers eliminated if Cardinals and Cowboys won

[b]Chicago at Baltimore
* Bears win = Bengals clinch AFC North[/b]
* Ravens win = Ravens remain alive for AFC North

New England at Buffalo
* Patriots win = Bills eliminated
* Bills win = Bills may be eliminated based on other outcomes

Miami at Tennessee
* Dolphins win = Bills, Titans eliminated
* Titans win = Titans remain alive

Houston at St. Louis
* Texans win = Texans remain alive
* Rams win = Texans may be eliminated based on other outcomes

Atlanta at N.Y. Jets
* Falcons win = If not already eliminated by a Cowboys win, Falcons remain alive with win
* Jets win = Falcons may be eliminated based on other coucomes

Sunday, Dec. 20 - Late Games
============================

[b]Cincinnati at San Diego
* Bengals win = Bengals clinch AFC North[/b]
* Chargers win = Chargers clinch playoff berth, clinch division if Broncos lose, clinch first round bye if Broncos AND Patriots lose

[b]Oakland at Denver[/b]
* Raiders win = Chargers clinch division if Chargers win
[b]* Broncos win = Broncos remain alive for AFC West, Steelers in jeopardy if Ravens also win[/b]

[b]Green Bay at Pittsburgh
* Packers win = Packers clinch playoff spot if Cowboys lose, Steelers eliminated if Broncos and Ravens win[/b]
* Steelers win = Texans eliminated if Rams, Broncos, Dolphins and Ravens also win

Tampa Bay at Seattle
* Buccaneers win = Seattle eliminated, Falcons eliminated if they lose
* Seahawks win = If not already eliminated by a Cowboys win, Seahawks remain alive with win


Sunday, Dec. 20 - Night Game
============================

Minnesota at Carolina
* Vikings win = Carolina eliminated, Vikings clinch NFC North if Packers also lost, Vikings clinch first round bye if Eagles lose
* Panthers win = Saints clinch homefield advantage if Saints won

Monday, Dec. 21
===============

N.Y. Giants at Washington
* Giants win = Packers clinch playoff berth if Packers also won
* Redskins win = Eagles clinch playoff berth if Eagles also won

[AmishBengalFan]

I am pulling for Tennessee to win their game this week. If they do, and if they remain alive for a plyoff spot, they get San Diego on Christmas BEFORE our home game against the Chiefs. A Bengals win against San Diego *and* a Charger loss to the Titans on Christmas would give us a chance to lock-up a spot ahead of San Diego in the seeding race, and unless New England runs the table *and* we lose to the Jets, that means the #2 seed would be ours.

Go Titans, beat the Dolphins!

[AmishBengalFan]

Week 15 (Saturday):

Dallas upsets previously-unbeaten New Orleans. This eliminates Atlanta, Carolina and Seattle, and places San Francisco on life support (they can be eliminated today with a loss and a Cardinal victory).

[B.A.B.]

Ok people, tell me this. If the Steelers win out and we do also, would that bring them to PBS in the wild card round? That would be fucking EPIC.

[-GoBengals-]

[quote name='B.A.B.' date='22 December 2009 - 02:12 AM' timestamp='1261462348' post='846533']
Ok people, tell me this. If the Steelers win out and we do also, would that bring them to PBS in the wild card round? That would be fucking EPIC.
[/quote]

depends what the patriots broncos and a few others do...

[AmishBengalFan]

[quote name='GoBengals' date='22 December 2009 - 02:16 AM' timestamp='1261462606' post='846534']
depends what the patriots broncos and a few others do...
[/quote]


If you want to play some what-ifs, I recommend going here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

There are likely MANY ways for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs and come to Cincinnati. But bear in mind, the Steelers will have an inferior division record compared to Baltimore regardless of what happens this week, so it's very likely that the Steelers will come in 3rd place in the division unless they win out AND Baltimore loses out. As a 3rd place team, the only way they can make the playoffs is if Baltimore goes in as the #5 seed and they go in as the #6 seed. This would require that BOTH of them climb past Denver. Further, as a #6 seed, the Steelers only come to PBS if we're the #3 seed, and the way the tiebreakers seem to be falling, that would require that we finish with a better record than the Patriots. While all of that happening at the same time is difficult, here's one way it COULD happen:

This week:
San Diego beats Tennessee
Cincinnati beats Kansas City
Indianapolis beats NY Jets
New England beats Jacksonville
Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
Philadelphia beats Denver
Miami beats Houston

Next week:
Baltimore beats Oakland
Pittsburgh beats Miami
Cincinnati beats NY Jets
Houston beats New England

Assuming all of the "better" teams win the remaining games, this would give:

Division Champs
1 - Indianapolis 16-0
2 - San Diego 13-3
3 - Cincinnati 11-5
4 - New England 10-6

Wild Cards
5 - Baltimore 9-7
6 - Pittsburgh 9-7
Denver 9-7
Jacksonville 8-8
Miami 8-8
Tennessee 8-8
NY Jets 7-9
Houston 7-9

Baltimore finishes ahead of Pittsburgh based on division record
Baltmore beats Denver for the 5 seed based on 1-0 H2H
Pittsburgh beats Denver for the 6 seed based on 1-0 H2H

Your opening round of the playoffs would be:
5/Baltimore at 4/New England
6/Pittsburgh at 3/Cincinnati

[oldschooler]

[url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2009/12/21/if-the-playoffs-started-today/"][b][size="5"]If the playoffs started today[/size][/b][/url]
Posted by [email="nhurm@enquirer.com"]nhurm[/email] December 21st, 2009, 2:42 pm If the playoffs started today, the Bengals would host the Baltimore Ravens in a first round matchup the weekend of Jan. 9-10.

The other AFC Wild-Card round would match Denver on the road against New England.

[size="2"][b]The winners of the Wild-Card round would then be re-seeded.[/b][/size]

[size="2"][b]As Mike in Chicago points out, the lowest winning seed will face the Colts. The highest winning seed will face the Chargers.[/b][/size]

NFL.com has a very nice explainer to the playoffs [url="http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true"][color="#9c070c"]here.[/color][/url]


(Click here for the entire article)





[url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2009/12/21/if-the-playoffs-started-today/"]http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2009/12/21/if-the-playoffs-started-today/[/url]

[AmishBengalFan]

Here are the AFC's elimination scenarios going into week 16:

Elimination Scenarios:
* Houston is eliminated with a loss (vs Miami) or wins by Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh) and Denver (vs Philadelphia)
* Tennessee is eliminated with a loss (vs San Diego) or wins by Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh) and Denver (vs Philadelphia)
* Jacksonville is eliminated with a loss (vs New England) and a Denver win (vs Philadelphia) and either a Baltimore win (vs Pittsburgh) or a Miami win (vs Houston)
* Pittsburgh is eliminated with a loss (vs Baltimore) and either a Denver win (vs Philadelphia) or a Jacksonville win (vs New England)
* Pittsburgh is also eliminated with a loss (vs Baltimore) and wins by both Houston (vs Miami) and NY Jets (vs Indianapolis)
* NY Jets are eliminated with a loss (vs Indianapolis) and wins by any of these three: Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh), Miami (vs Houston), or Jacksonville (vs New England)
* Miami is elimianted with a loss (vs Houston) and wins by at least two of these three: Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh), Denver (vs Philadelphia) and/or Jacksonville (vs New England)
* Miami is also eliminated with a loss (vs Houston) and wins by either Baltimore (vs Pittsburgh) and/or Jacksonville (vs New England), provided that Denver clinches Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Miami (too many scenarios to reasonably list here)

If we assume that all of the games that affect these scenarios are a 50-50 prospect, here are the chances of each team being alive going into week 17:

81% Jacksonville (eliminated in only 12 of 64 scenarios)
75% Miami (eliminated 16 of 64)
59% Pittsburgh (eliminated 26 of 64)
56% NY Jets (eliminated 28 of 64)
37.5% Houston and Tennessee (eliminated 40 of 64)

Using the Yahoo predictor thingy, the most likely outcome of this weekend's games are:

Indianapolis beats NY Jets
Miami beats Houston
Baltimore beats Pittsburgh
Philadelphia beats Denver
San Diego beats Tennessee
New England beats Jacksonville

Houston, Tennessee and NY Jets would be eliminated - Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Miami would still be alive

[AmishBengalFan]

The week 16 AFC Clinching scenarios are:

***AFC EAST***
* New England can clinch AFC East Division with a win (vs Jacksonville) or a Miami loss (vs Houston)
***AFC NORTH***
* Cincinnati can clinch AFC North Division with a win (vs Kansas City) or a Baltimore loss (vs Pittsburgh)
* Baltimore can clinch a plyoff berth with a win and a Jacksonville loss (vs New England) and a loss by either NY Jets (vs Indianapolis) or Denver (vs Philadelphia)
* Baltimore can also clinch a playoff berth with a win and with losses by all three of the following: Miami (vs Jacksonville), NY Jets (vs Indianapolis) and Denver (vs Philadelphia)
***AFC WEST***
* San Diego can clinch a first-round bye with a win (vs Tennessee) or a New England loss (vs Jacksonville)
* Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a win (vs Philadelphia) and a Jacksonville loss (vs New England) and a Miami loss (vs Houston) and a NY Jets loss (vs Indianapolis) and a Pittsburgh loss (vs Baltimore)

Again, using the Yahoo predictor thingy:
New England beats Jacksonville
Cincinnati beats Kansas City
San Diego beats Tennessee
Baltimore beats Pittsburgh
Philadelphia beats Denver

San Diego would clinch the first-round bye
New England and Cincinnati would clinch their respective divisions
Baltimore would clinch a playoff berth

This leaves Denver at 8-7 and in a battle with the three teams indicated previously for the final AFC playoff berth.

[hocuspocus]

Not sure if this is posted already but good layout (link below) of what to watch for... I personally would rather not see the Steelers or the Ravens in playoffs but my negativity is taking over and the route to both teams making it is long but not all that outlandish given all teams that need to lose to support it are already underdogs for this Sunday. It would be a bragging point for the AFC North to get three teams in and for us to win would would be then no argument the best division but still could not take facing the Steelers again or the Ravens.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_658881.html