Bleeds Orange Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 [quote name='Michigan Muskie' date='01 January 2010 - 01:11 PM' timestamp='1262369493' post='850246'] Question about dates and times: I have to fly to CA on Sunday the 17th. Is there any way to know which seeds play on Saturday and which seeds play on Sunday or is it totally contingent upon which teams/seeds advance to the second weekend. Since we know the teams who will be hosting the AFC games that weekend already (the #1 and #2 seeds, Indy and San Diego) I just wondered if we had any clue who plays Saturday and who plays Sunday. Thanks. [/quote] They'll wait to see who's gonna host the NFC games. The two hosts from the NFC could be any of five cities in three time zones, as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Tigers Johnson| Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Everyone is worried about Pitt making it... I think we need to worry about Houston making it....they beat us, but good! We do not match up well at all against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldcat Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 [quote name='Tigers Johnson' date='02 January 2010 - 02:02 PM' timestamp='1262466158' post='850480'] Everyone is worried about Pitt making it... I think we need to worry about Houston making it....they beat us, but good! We do not match up well at all against them. [/quote] They won, but they did two things well - stop our running and pass to the TE. They don't have that TE anymore. The thing that helped them pull away was our fumbling the ball in the second half. Aside from the first drive, we held down Andre Johnson pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coup000 Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 If NE loses, I'm hoping for Denver. Even though I think we can beat Pit and Houston they pose a much bigger risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gatorclaws Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 [quote name='coup000' date='02 January 2010 - 05:49 PM' timestamp='1262468994' post='850486'] If NE loses, I'm hoping for Denver. Even though I think we can beat Pit and Houston they pose a much bigger risk. [/quote] Denver has given up and probably won't win this weekend. They're benching all their playmakers for the game. No Marshall, Scheffler, or Royal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 I have found a few playoff flowcharts scattered around the net. They're designed to help fans of a particular team track whether they're going to make it into the playoffs today or not. I'll paste what I've found to this thread to help US track THEM. Baltimore and NY Jets: Win and in... Lose and out. (simple) Denver: [img]http://cdn0.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/224761/playoffs_flowchart_large.png[/img] Pittsburgh: Win = consult flowchart below. Lose and out. [img]http://www.steelahs.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/.pond/flowchart122909.jpg.w560h704.jpg[/img] Houston, Miami, Jacksonville - Still looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Here are the team-by-team probabilities for each available seed in the AFC. (Note, Indy and San Diego have locked up #1 and #2 respectively): Source: www.playoffstatus.com Probability of making it into the playoffs: 100% IND, SD, NE, CIN 62% BAL 51% DEN 48% NYJ 19% PIT 13% HOU 5% JAX 2% MIA Cincinnati/New England: 51% NE #3, CIN #4 49% CIN #3, NE #4 Baltimore: (controls own destiny for the #6 seed) 32% #5 30% #6 38% No Playoffs Pittsburgh: 5% #5 14% #6 81% No Playoffs NY Jets: (controls own destiny for the #5 seed) 48% #5 <1% #6 52% No Playoffs Miami: <1% #5 2% #6 98% No Playoffs Houston: 1% #5 11% #6 87% No Playoffs Jacksonville: <1% #5 5% #6 95% No Playoffs Denver: 13% #5 38% #6 49% No Playoffs Seed-by-seed: #3: 51% NE, 49% CIN #4: 51% CIN, 49% NE #5: 48% NYJ, 32% BAL, 13% DEN, 5% PIT, 1% HOU, <1% JAX/MIA #6: 38% DEN, 30% BAL, 14% PIT, 11% HOU, 5% JAX, 2% MIA, <1% NYJ No Playoffs: 98% MIA, 95% JAX, 87% HOU, 81% PIT, 52% NYJ, 49% DEN, 38% BAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 The early games are done: Buffalo 30, Indianapolis 7 Pittsburgh 30, Miami 24 Cleveland 23, Jacksonville 17 Atlanta 20, Tampa Bay 10 San Francisco 28, St Louis 6 Minnesota 44, NY Giants 7 Houston 34, New England 27 Chicago 37, Detroit 23 Carolina 23, New Orleans 10 The late games are: Baltimore at Oakland Tennessee at Seattle Washington at San Diego Kansas City at Denver Green Bay at Arizona Philadelphia at Dallas And Sunday Night: Cincinnati at NY Jets I'll update the OP with the up-to-the-minute scenarios - please stand by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Right now, Houston sits in the 5 slot and Pittsburgh is in the 6 slot. Both are 9-7, all of the other contenders are 8-7 with games yet to play AND tie-breakers in-hand. New England's loss drops them to 10-6, one-half game behind us at 10-5. We are currently the 3 seed, they are the 4. As it stands (although it *will* change) Pittsburgh is coming to PBS and Houston is going to Foxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Here's some simplification: The Jets and Ravens are in the drivers seat. If either win, they make the playoffs. If both win, everybody else dies. If EXACTLY ONE of them lose, Pittsburgh dies and the final spot will go to Denver (if they win) or Houston (if Denver loses). If BOTH of them lose, Houston is in. Denver will take the other spot if they win, otherwise Pittsburgh will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Touchdown Ravens, and the Steelers creep ever closer to extinction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 3, 2010 Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 So it sounds as though we WANT the Rats to win...forcing a Stealer death. I'll take that. Raiders just scored...14-10 now, Rats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 By the way. The Buffalo win over the lame-duck Colts has clinched the tie-breaker for the Pats. If we win, we're the 3 seed.. If we lose, we're the 4 seed. Simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Now that the 3-4 seed situation is uderstood, here's what's at stake: If Baltimore and Denver both win: we will play Denver in the 3-6 game with a win, we will play the Jets in the 4-5 game with a loss. The Ravens play the Pats in the other game. If Baltimore wins and Denver loses: We get Houston with a win (3-6) or the Jets with a loss (4-5). The Ravens play the Pats in the other game. If Denver wins and Baltimore loses: We get Houston with a win (3-6) or the Jets with a loss (4-5). The Broncos play the Pats in the other game. If both Baltimore and Denver lose: We get Pittsburgh with a win (3-6) or the Jets with a loss (4-5). The Texans play the Pats in the other game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted January 3, 2010 Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 [quote name='AmishBengalFan' date='03 January 2010 - 07:24 PM' timestamp='1262561053' post='850969'] By the way. The Buffalo win over the lame-duck Colts has clinched the tie-breaker for the Pats. If we win, we're the 3 seed.. If we lose, we're the 4 seed. Simple. [/quote] I was just coming for the answer to this, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Current scores: [B]BAL[/b] 21, OAK 13 (11:00 left 4Q) KC 30, [b]DEN[/b] 24 (12:00 left 4Q) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Current scores: [B]BAL[/b] 21, OAK 13 (5:00 left 4Q) KC 37, [b]DEN[/b] 24 (10:00 left 4Q) If Baltimore wins and Denver loses: We get Houston with a win (3-6) or the Jets with a loss (4-5). The Ravens play the Pats in the other game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Current scores: [B]BAL[/b] 21, OAK 13 (0:30 left 4Q) KC 44, [b]DEN[/b] 24 (6:30 left 4Q) If Baltimore wins and Denver loses: We get Houston with a win (3-6) or the Jets with a loss (4-5). The Ravens play the Pats in the other game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 4, 2010 Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Can we officially declare the Stealers D-E-A-D? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 [quote name='Le Tigre' date='03 January 2010 - 08:09 PM' timestamp='1262563788' post='851019'] Can we officially declare the Stealers D-E-A-D? [/quote] Ravens 21, Raiders 13. Final Sing it, children... Ding dong the witch is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Current scores: [B]BAL[/b] 21, OAK 13 (Final) KC 44, [b]DEN[/b] 24 (2:30 left 4Q) If Baltimore wins and Denver loses: We get Houston with a win (3-6) or the Jets with a loss (4-5). The Ravens play the Pats in the other game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 Baltimore is locked in to a game at New England next week. The Pats lost Welker for the season, Brady has been mediocre, and the Ravens seem to match up well against them. Meanwhile, we get to choose whether we host the Jets in the 4-5 game next week or the Texans in the 3-6 game. In my opinion, I think the Bengals should take tonight off. If we win, we get Houston (they put up 27 against us in our place, and we do NOT match up well against them). If we lose, we get the Jets and a rookie QB, on the road, heading a team who backed-in by playing two lame-duck division champs (Indy last week, possibly us this week). But it gets better. If we assume that the Ravens will beat New England, then a Bengals victory will send us to San Diego REGARDLESS of whether we have the 3 or 4 seed, while Baltimore heads to Indianapolis. And if we get to the Championship game, we go to Indy or we host Baltimore. So our path to Miami is ABSOLUTELY THE SAME whether we're the 3 seed or the 4 seed, the only difference is which team we host in the first round. I don't want Houston, I want New York. We should take it easy tonight, and make that Steeler crybaby a prophet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 BTW - The owners voted unanimously to change the draft order rules. Now, all 12 playoff teams will pick after all 20 non-playoff teams. Teams are slotted as follows: 1-20 Non-playoff teams 21-24 Wildcard round losers 25-28 Divisional round losers 29-30 Conference finals losers 31 Superbowl loser 32 Superbowl winner In each group, teams are ranked in order by record. Ties are broken by strength of schedule then a coin flip. Assuming the Jets hold on to their slim 30-0 lead, here's the order for 2010: 1. St. Louis (1-15) 2. Detroit (2-14) 3. Tampa Bay (3-13) 4. Washington (4-12) (SoS=0.492) 5. Kansas City (4-12) (SoS=0.516) 6. Seattle (5-11) (SoS=0.477) 7. Cleveland (5-11) (SoS=0.512) 8. Oakland (5-11) (SoS=0.527) 9. Buffalo (6-10) 10/tie. Jacksonville (7-9) (SoS=0.496) 10/tie. Chicago (7-9) (SoS=0.496) (Traded to DEN) 12. Miami (7-9) (SoS=0.559) 13. San Francisco (8-8) (SoS=0.477) 14. Denver (8-8) (SoS=0.527) (Traded to SEA) 15. New York Giants (8-8) (SoS=0.535) 16/tie. Carolina (8-8) (SoS=0.539) (Traded to SF) 16/tie. Tennessee (8-8) (SoS=0.539) 18. Pittsburgh (9-7) (SoS=0.488) 19/tie. Atlanta (9-7) (SoS=0.504) 19/tie. Houston (9-7) (SoS=0.504) The tiebreaker ranking for the rest: 21. New York Jets (9-7) (SoS=0.516) 22. Baltimore (9-7) (SoS=0.523) 23. Arizona (10-6) (SoS=0.445) 24. Cincinnati (10-6) (SoS=0.492) 25. New England (10-6) (SoS=0.516) 26. Green Bay (11-5) (SoS=0.441) 27. Philadelphia (11-5) (SoS=0.484) 28. Dallas (11-5) (SoS=0.488) 29. Minnesota (12-4) 30. New Orleans (13-3) (SoS=0.426) 31. San Diego (13-3) (SoS=0.453) 32. Indianapolis (14-2) Tied teams will flip a coin. Winner will pick ahead of loser in round 1, then teams will alternate their respective order beginning in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-GoBengals- Posted January 4, 2010 Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 good info on the draft slotting.. interesting that it was changed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmishBengalFan Posted January 4, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2010 If the owners vote to continue the current schedule rotation scheme, here are your 2010 AFC schedules: [b]AFC EAST[/b] [b]BUFFALO BILLS[/b]: Home 2: MIA, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, JAC Away 6: MIA, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], [u]GB[/u], [u]MIN[/u], KC [b]MIAMI DOLPHINS[/b]: Home 2: BUF, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, TEN Away 6: BUF, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], [u]GB[/u], [u]MIN[/u], OAK [b]NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS[/b]: Home 6: BUF, MIA, [u]NYJ[/u], [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], [u]GB[/u], [u]MIN[/u], [u]IND[/u] Away 2: BUF, MIA, [u]NYJ[/u], CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, [u]SD[/u] [b]NEW YORK JETS[/b]: Home 5: BUF, MIA, [u]NE[/u], [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], [u]GB[/u], [u]MIN[/u], HOU Away 1: BUF, MIA, [u]NE[/u], CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, DEN [b]AFC NORTH BALTIMORE RAVENS[/b]: Home 2: [u]CIN[/u], CLE, PIT, BUF, MIA, [u]NO[/u], TB, DEN Away 3: [u]CIN[/u], CLE, PIT, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], ATL, CAR, HOU [b]CINCINNATI BENGALS[/b]: Home 3: [u]BAL[/u], CLE, PIT, BUF, MIA, [u]NO[/u], TB, [u]SD[/u] Away 4: [u]BAL[/u], CLE, PIT, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], ATL, CAR, [u]IND[/u] [b]CLEVELAND BROWNS[/b]: Home 4: [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], PIT, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], ATL, CAR, KC Away 3: [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], PIT, BUF, MIA, [u]NO[/u], TB, JAC [b]PITTSBURGH STEELERS[/b]: Home 4: [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], CLE, [u]NE[/u], [u]NYJ[/u], ATL, CAR, OAK Away 3: [u]BAL[/u], [u]CIN[/u], CLE, BUF, MIA, [u]NO[/u], TB, TEN [b]AFC SOUTH HOUSTON TEXANS[/b]: Home 4: [u]IND[/u], JAC, TEN, KC, [u]SD[/u], [u]DAL[/u], NYG, [u]BAL[/u] Away 3: [u]IND[/u], JAC, TEN, DEN, OAK, [u]PHI[/u], WAS, [u]NYJ[/u] [b]INDIANAPOLIS COLTS[/b]: Home 3: HOU, JAC, TEN, KC, [u]SD[/u], [u]DAL[/u], NYG, [u]CIN[/u] Away 2: HOU, JAC, TEN, DEN, OAK, [u]PHI[/u], WAS, [u]NE[/u] [b]JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS[/b]: Home 2: HOU, [u]IND[/u], TEN, DEN, OAK, [u]PHI[/u], WAS, CLE Away 3: HOU, [u]IND[/u], TEN, KC, [u]SD[/u], [u]DAL[/u], NYG, BUF [b]TENNESSEE TITANS[/b]: Home 2: HOU, [u]IND[/u], JAC, DEN, OAK, [u]PHI[/u], WAS, PIT Away 3: HOU, [u]IND[/u], JAC, KC, [u]SD[/u], [u]DAL[/u], NYG, MIA [b]AFC WEST DENVER BRONCOS[/b]: Home 3: KC, OAK, [u]SD[/u], HOU, [u]IND[/u], STL, SEA, [u]NYJ[/u] Away 3: KC, OAK, [u]SD[/u], JAC, TEN, [u]ARI[/u], SF, [u]BAL[/u] [b]KANSAS CITY CHIEFS[/b]: Home 2: DEN, OAK, [u]SD[/u], JAC, TEN, [u]ARI[/u], SF, BUF Away 2: DEN, OAK, [u]SD[/u], HOU, [u]IND[/u], STL, SEA, CLE [b]OAKLAND RAIDERS[/b]: Home 2: DEN, KC, [u]SD[/u], HOU, [u]IND[/u], STL, SEA, MIA Away 2: DEN, KC, [u]SD[/u], JAC, TEN, [u]ARI[/u], SF, PIT [b]SAN DIEGO CHARGERS[/b]: Home 2: DEN, KC, OAK, JAC, TEN, [u]ARI[/u], SF, [u]NE[/u] Away 2: DEN, KC, OAK, HOU, [u]IND[/u], STL, SEA, [u]CIN[/u] Games against 2009 playoff teams are [u]underlined[/u]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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