Going for it on 4th down this season

[CTBengalsFan]

[IMG]http://www.be-logic.org/uploaded/10_1354600927.jpg[/IMG]

While Marvin normally has a conservative reputation, we've been going for it a lot on 4th down and converting a great percentage. I'm sure Gruden's presence has a lot to do with this. I love it, especially when you're converting that percentage. Makes a lot more sense than punting from around the other team's 40 or kicking a long FG.

[happyrid]

This is the one aspect of football strategy that the "stat guys" are absolutely adamant about. They say the numbers are overwhelmingly in favor of going for it on 4th down much more often than NFL coaches actually do it.

Pretty much anytime you get past mid-field and are in that no man's land between the 35 and 50 yard line. And pretty much any time it is 4th and 1 at any point on the field, especially if you are close enough to QB sneak.

Very surprising that an old school guy like Marvin is leading the charge on this new thinking. But it is absolutely great and has been a huge reason why the Bengals have won some of these games.

[Bengals1181]

I think I'm most impressed that a handful of them have been 4th and longs.

I was actually surprised that Marvin didn't go for it on 4th and 1 from the 1yd line in the 2nd quarter Sunday.

[scharm]

I don't know if it was a stat or a coach's thinking but I believe it was in the college ranks that had the thought process of never kicking a FG inside the 10 unless it could tie or win at the end of a game.


As for the bengals, I think they got faith in their offense and much more their defense to get them out of harms way if the 4th down attempt doesn't work.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1354627124' post='1188508']
I don't know if it was a stat or a coach's thinking but I believe it was in the college ranks that had the thought process of never kicking a FG inside the 10 unless it could tie or win at the end of a game.


As for the bengals, I think they got faith in their offense and much more their defense to get them out of harms way if the 4th down attempt doesn't work.
[/quote]


it also seems to be situational. Most of the 4th down attempts, including the 2 fake punts and the fake FG, have all been on the road against inferior teams.

Marvin hasn't been as risky against the better teams (and that's not necessarily a bad thing), and he seems to do the fakes when the team needs a spark on the road. At home, this team, particularly the defense, has done a really good job of feeding off the crowd.

[Oldcat]

[i]While Marvin normally has a conservative reputation, we've been going for it a lot on 4th down and converting a great percentage. I'm sure Gruden's presence has a lot to do with this. I love it, especially when you're converting that percentage. Makes a lot more sense than punting from around the other team's 40 or kicking a long FG.[/i]

In the reports after the fact, the driving force for these gadget plays seems to be Marv himself, not Gruden begging him. Maybe it is the chemistry between the 2 that was lacking before, or maybe Marv is just having more fun now.

[BengalBacker]

I posted this article about a month ago, but it's a good read for those who missed it.

http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-action/201211/how-oregon-coach-chip-kelly-can-spark-moneyball-revolution-nfl

[fredtoast]

Profootballoutsiders keeps an "aggression idex" that keeps track of coaches going for it on fourth down, but they eliminate all the times it is done out of neccessity like late in the fourth quarter or when trailing by a few scores in the second half. I'd like to see how Marvin ranks on that. Most of his fourth down attempts have not been out of desperation.

[Bengals1181]

[b] Breaking Down the ‘Boys: Bengals doing something Cowboys, rest of NFL should mimic[/b]

[color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
[i]Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of [/i][url="http://thedctimes.com/"]The DC Times[/url][i] and writes for [/i][url="http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/running-the-numbers-blog.html"]DallasCowboys.com[/url][i] and the [/i][url="http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/author/jonathan-bales/"]New York Times[/url][i]. He’s also the author of [/i][url="http://www.amazon.com/Fantasy-Football-Smart-People-ebook/dp/B0084DYLV4/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1337638014&sr=8-2"]Fantasy Football for Smart People[/url][i]. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.[/i][/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
[i]You can follow him [/i][url="https://twitter.com/TheCowboysTimes"]@TheCowboysTimes[/url][i].[/i][/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
A wave of statistical analysis has already infiltrated the NFL, and the use of analytics has slowly altered decision-making around the league. The most obvious shift has been to more pass-heavy offenses, which has subsequently led to a recent boom in yards and points.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
One of the aspects of professional football analytics that hasn’t completely worked its way into the NFL—yet one whose truth has been established beyond any reasonable doubt—is the idea that coaches should be way, way more aggressive on fourth down. Take a look at some of the situations in which offenses could benefit from going for it on fourth down (assuming normal game situations):[/size][/font][/color][list]
[*][b]4th and 2 at their own 20-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 7 at midfield[/b]
[*][b]4th and 10 at the opponent’s 40-yard line[/b]
[/list][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
Such fourth-down decisions aren’t based on vague and irrelevant stats, but rather historical data from real games. That is, historically, teams have increased their win probability more by going for it on 4th and 10 at or near the opponent’s 40-yard line than by punting. Want to have some fun? Use Advanced NFL Stats’ [url="http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php"]4th Down Calculator[/url] to see just how often offenses could obtain a competitive advantage by going for it.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
Despite the evidence, coaches have not increased their rate of fourth down attempts over the past decade. Actually, it’s decreased substantially in the past two seasons.[/size][/font][/color]
[url="http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/2012/12/breaking-down-the-boys-bengals-doing-something-cowboys-rest-of-nfl-should-mimic.html/4th-down-attempts/"][img]http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/files/2012/12/4th-Down-Attempts.png[/img][/url]
[color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
After a brief increase in aggressiveness from 2007 to 2009, coaches have inexplicably reverted to their conservative ways. Unless there’s an incredible jump in fourth down attempts this year, 2012 will be the most conservative year of fourth-down decision-making in a decade.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
It’s somewhat understandable that we see such conservative decisions from coaches; with their jobs on the line, they don’t want to make any choices that seem to put their teams in unfavorable positions, even if the decisions are the right ones. That is, a coach is far less likely to lose his job if he consistently punts at midfield instead of going for it on 4th and 7, despite the fact that his team will win more often by going for it.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
At the same time, the primary task of any coach is to put his squad in the best position to win. On top of that, in a league that is so competitive, coaches should be seeking advantages wherever they can find them. When a coach comes around who has the confidence to consistently leave his offense on the field on fourth down (Hi Chip Kelly!) and it works, lots of others will follow suit, albeit at the snail-like pace that accompanies change in the NFL.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
Until then, teams like the Cincinnati Bengals will maintain their competitive advantage as it relates to fourth-down play-calling. Yes, I said the Cincinnati Bengals. Amazingly, the Bengals have gone for it on fourth down on 12 occasions in the first half alone this season. While the league-wide rate for total fourth down attempts is just 0.831 per game, the Bengals have averaged one fourth down attempt in the just the first half in 2012. Let’s take a look at Cincinnati’s first half plays on fourth down:[/size][/font][/color][list]
[*][b]4th and 1 at their own 34-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 3 at their own 29-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 2 at the opponent’s 35-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 2 at the opponent’s 37-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 7 at the opponent’s 36-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 1 at the opponent’s 6-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 1 at the opponent’s 34-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 1 at their own 49-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 1 at the opponent’s 21-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and Goal at the opponent’s 1-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and Goal at the opponent’s 5-yard line[/b]
[*][b]4th and 3 at the opponent’s 31-yard line[/b]
[/list][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
Remember, all of those plays came in the first two quarters. And guess what? They’ve worked. The Bengals have converted on 10 of those 12 plays, reeling off four of at least 15 yards.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
Using historical data, we can also determine the number of points the Bengals could be expected to score based on their decisions. Ready for this? Those 12 plays above have increased the Bengals’ expected points by 29.2—2.43 per play. So Cincinnati has averaged about an extra field goal in the first half of every game this year simply by making the correct decision on fourth down. With that in mind, it’s easy to see why a team that ranks in the middle of the pack or even below-average in most efficiency ratings is in the AFC playoff hunt.[/size][/font][/color][color=#373737][font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]
By the way, the Cowboys have attempted 10 plays on fourth down this year, most of them late in games out of necessity. In the first half, they’ve gone for it on fourth down only twice.[/size][/font][/color]
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http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/2012/12/breaking-down-the-boys-bengals-doing-something-cowboys-rest-of-nfl-should-mimic.html/[/size][/font][/color]

[Oldcat]

The problem with these analytics is that part of the reason these plays succeed is that the defense isn't as ready for them. Every action draws a reaction eventually.


Oh, and don't get me started on 'efficiency ratings'

[turningpoint]

You can't count the Peerman runs IMO.

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='Oldcat' timestamp='1354825689' post='1189248']
The problem with these analytics is that part of the reason these plays succeed is that the defense isn't as ready for them. Every action draws a reaction eventually.


Oh, and don't get me started on 'efficiency ratings'
[/quote]

I agree to an extent.. In regards to that article that Backer posted the other day about Chip Kelley, I don't think that "always going for it on 4th" will ever work in the NFL. The quality of opposition is just too high.. But I think the Bengals have been doing it right. And I think it's something that you will start to see more of.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='Lucid' timestamp='1354838099' post='1189322']
I agree to an extent.. In regards to that article that Backer posted the other day about Chip Kelley, I don't think that "always going for it on 4th" will ever work in the NFL. The quality of opposition is just too high.. But I think the Bengals have been doing it right. And I think it's something that you will start to see more of.
[/quote]

Well it helps that we are one of the few who are doing it. But yes, I do think that coaches can be a bit too conservative - but also armchair analyzers are way too locked into whatever their little pet theory is.

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='Oldcat' timestamp='1354855644' post='1189357']
Well it helps that we are one of the few who are doing it. But yes, I do think that coaches can be a bit too conservative - but also armchair analyzers are way too locked into whatever their little pet theory is.
[/quote]

Us old school guys also need to remember that the game has changed. Just like with the advent of "pass interference" the modern rules involving the passing game have further tilted the scales in favor of the offense. Old axioms of when to go for it and when to punt will need to be revised to reflect this. I am proud to see the Bengals on the cutting edge of this.

[Oldcat]

[quote name='Lucid' timestamp='1354864772' post='1189364']
Us old school guys also need to remember that the game has changed. Just like with the advent of "pass interference" the modern rules involving the passing game have further tilted the scales in favor of the offense. Old axioms of when to go for it and when to punt will need to be revised to reflect this. I am proud to see the Bengals on the cutting edge of this.
[/quote]

You might consider that a reason in favor off pinning a team deep with a punt - take some plays out of their bag of tricks and make them fear a turnover there even more.

From the team's perspective, I think in order to make this work well you need an effective offense and special teams group (for fakes) and an effective defense you can trust to take care of things if you mess up and fail to make it. In past years here we have lacked the defense (2004-7) or the offense (2009, 2011) or both.

[NASTYNATI]

During the 7 wins the team has been aggressive on both sides of the ball. They have gone for it on 4th down, ran trick plays (Sanu TD pass, lining him up as a back) Fake punts,field goals etc. During the 4 game losing streak both sides looked flat, there were no risks being taken to get a spark. I dont know what has gotten into Marvin but I like it, but Id be lying if I said Im not afraid when the Bengals play the Steelers we will see the same old Bengals again.