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MichaelWeston

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Just a thought. I am not sure that the economy is really that bad. It might be but as I have said in the past I am isolated. I don't make much money but I am in a bubble of people who do and they all have jobs. My thoughts are that the economy is not bad, the expectations of people are just much higher and instead of the money being spread around it's centralized. Now everyone has a cell phone, giant tv and large house and the idea of having to cut these equals poor. The idea that we struggle a bit and live with a few generations of family in the same house is absurd when this used to be par. I get the feeling that the economy is not that bad and that its producing the same amount but that it is centralized amongst fewer people. As in, there are 10 units of money produced. It used to go 1 person got 3 units and 2 got 2 units and 3 got 1 unit. Now there are still 10 units produced but those are shared with the top 3 people, the bottom get none and the top 3 complain because their salaries are not going up as expected.

It seems like wealth used to be spread out, now our expectations are higher and it's centralized. I make more money then my parents ever made, and make way less then any of my friends who went into jobs more focused on profit and less on people.

I could be wrong here....its a developing thought and would love discussion. Is their a real crisis, or just a crisis of expectation.
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The economy is bad. There is over 24 million people without jobs. That is more than the entire population of Australia. There was a giant grocery store that opened up here in Cincinnati and they had 8 thousand people show up looking for jobs. There are cities that are falling apart and business being shut down. The city of Stockton, Ca had to file for bankruptcy. The housing market is a disaster.

There are parts of the country that are still doing very well. Where I live the area is continuing to grow and get bigger. You would never know that the economy is bad. It all just depends on where you go.

I blame technology as part of the problem with the economy. New technology is putting a lot of people out of jobs. For example the invention of the mp3 killed the cd business so all the places that printed and sold CDs are no longer needed and people lose their job. The same is now happening with books. Now that you can download books, there is less of a need for printing houses and book stores and more people lose jobs. The same is happening in factories where robots are doing a lot of the work now that people used to do. I can go on and on with things like e-mail and digital cameras that cost people jobs. We as a society have just not figured out to create new jobs with the technology we have.
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[quote name='BigDawgBengal' timestamp='1345875789' post='1150999']
The economy is bad. There is over 24 million people without jobs. That is more than the entire population of Australia. There was a giant grocery store that opened up here in Cincinnati and they had 8 thousand people show up looking for jobs. There are cities that are falling apart and business being shut down. The city of Stockton, Ca had to file for bankruptcy. The housing market is a disaster.

There are parts of the country that are still doing very well. Where I live the area is continuing to grow and get bigger. You would never know that the economy is bad. It all just depends on where you go.

I blame technology as part of the problem with the economy. New technology is putting a lot of people out of jobs. For example the invention of the mp3 killed the cd business so all the places that printed and sold CDs are no longer needed and people lose their job. The same is now happening with books. Now that you can download books, there is less of a need for printing houses and book stores and more people lose jobs. The same is happening in factories where robots are doing a lot of the work now that people used to do. I can go on and on with things like e-mail and digital cameras that cost people jobs. We as a society have just not figured out to create new jobs with the technology we have.
[/quote]

Completely agree with technology....My question is are we overall making less money or is it just in the hands of fewer? Did it used to be that it took 4 people to make a product and they each would make 40K and now it takes 2 and they make 80k each?
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But are people not making any because other people are making more? There are four bread rolls at the dinner table. For instance, Before everyone used to get 1. Now 2 guys get 2 and the others get none. Has the economy shifted like this. I think both the last two statements are not mutually exclusive of what I am wondering. It is about people not making any money, but is the overall salary changed? Before a company paid out 200,000 in salary with 1 guy making 70K, 1 making 60K, 1 making 40K and 1 making 30K. Now could it be that 200,000 in salary is still being paid out but the top guy makes 85K, the second guy makes 75K, they tell the third guy he can't get a raise because there is no money and lay off the last guy and blame the bad economy.

The average income of the top 30% has skyrocketed since 1980, the bottom 70% has stayed exactly the same.
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there were 32 loan officers at my sisters company when she started, now there are 3, 29 loan officers are on unemployment.

the rich didnt fire themselves, they fired the middle and bottom.

the percentage of people without jobs is higher.

the top percentages you stated about got richer, they saved themselves. they werent in sub prime mortgages, they didnt lose their houses..

rental costs have increased 20% since i was last renting. because people couldnt buy houses anymore..

your last sentiments are most accurate, IMO. very few directors got cut at my sisters job, but 90% of her job did, and she now does way more work, so they started paying less-per-item so the people at her position are working 3x as hard and making, actually, slightly less than before. she works 55-60 hrs a week to make less than she did making 40 hrs a week 3 years ago...
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Lots of moving parts here. Economy is bad. My take is that demand is down due to no discretionary money. However, that's another discussion. Should our economy be built on buying shit we don't need? That's why it got so good in the first place. Too many parameters.
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[quote name='sois' timestamp='1345918711' post='1151069']
Lots of moving parts here. Economy is bad. My take is that demand is down due to no discretionary money. However, that's another discussion. Should our economy be built on buying shit we don't need? That's why it got so good in the first place. Too many parameters.
[/quote]

valid point, all those people who lost jobs stopped buying new things, atleast buying them as much, which creates a smaller need at retail, less employees, etc..
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Great thoughts guys. Interesting discussion. I think (certainly don't know) that the economy is moved a lot based on perception. Which makes political scare tactics about how the country economy will go to hell if we don't vote for _________, that much more despicable. Take Obama care, I think that it really would not have that much of an effect on small business's, however the small business's have been convinced that it will so now they say they can't grow etc. due to it or until they understand it. I am sure that the other side does similar things.
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The stock market is based on perception, that's why I hate it.
Jobs are based on revenue and demand, so it is based in reality.
The recent prosperity of America was build on consumer bullshit, though, so that's not good.

So the question is: Do you want to go back to that? If not (and no should probably be the answer), how do you want to increase revenues?
Right now we are a retail nation, not a production nation.
Also, we utilize a global workforce, but maybe we aren't doing so hot in global revenue.

I would guess eventually the cheap labor arbitrage goes away, but will we be around by the time that happens? Probably not. Gotta figure something else out for the short/intermediate term.
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[quote name='MichaelWeston' timestamp='1345919451' post='1151072']
Great thoughts guys. Interesting discussion. I think (certainly don't know) that the economy is moved a lot based on perception. Which makes political scare tactics about how the country economy will go to hell if we don't vote for _________, that much more despicable. Take Obama care, I think that it really would not have that much of an effect on small business's, however the small business's have been convinced that it will so now they say they can't grow etc. due to it or until they understand it. I am sure that the other side does similar things.
[/quote]

Agreed, the way things are set up, no single president has enough power to single handidly ruin an entire portion of the countries life as they know it. it took a long time and many presidents to get us as fucked as we are currently.

the economy score/problem is a strange one. we cant find people to hire at my work, literally cant find people to hire.. but unemployment is 8% here... so 1 in 12 people should be job searching..

problem is, we have 40-55 yr olds looking for jobs, not 18-30 yr olds. the only applicants we get are people looking for "anything" to tide them over until they can find a job in thier own field again.. which we dont bother with.. too long of training and learning process to waste the time on someone waiting to leave...

its crazy to see... if you ahve a solid job, the economy doesnt effect you, if you dont have a job, then you cant afford to rent, lose your house, and cant find regular work it seems.
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[quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1345921472' post='1151077']
Agreed, the way things are set up, no single president has enough power to single handidly ruin an entire portion of the countries life as they know it. it took a long time and many presidents to get us as fucked as we are currently.

the economy score/problem is a strange one. we cant find people to hire at my work, literally cant find people to hire.. but unemployment is 8% here... so 1 in 12 people should be job searching..

problem is, we have 40-55 yr olds looking for jobs, not 18-30 yr olds. the only applicants we get are people looking for "anything" to tide them over until they can find a job in their own field again.. which we dont bother with.. too long of training and learning process to waste the time on someone waiting to leave...

its crazy to see... if you have a solid job, the economy doesnt effect you, if you dont have a job, then you cant afford to rent, lose your house, and cant find regular work it seems.
[/quote]

Very interesting. What are they hiring for?
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[quote name='MichaelWeston' timestamp='1345931875' post='1151110']
Very interesting. What are they hiring for?
[/quote]

everything from sales people to technicians. part time, full time, none of the jobs pay less than 35k. full benefits, great vacation time, flexible scheduling... etc
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[quote name='MichaelWeston' timestamp='1345916531' post='1151063']
But are people not making any because other people are making more? There are four bread rolls at the dinner table. For instance, Before everyone used to get 1. [b]Now 2 guys get 2 and the others get none[/b]. Has the economy shifted like this. I think both the last two statements are not mutually exclusive of what I am wondering. It is about people not making any money, but is the overall salary changed? Before a company paid out 200,000 in salary with 1 guy making 70K, 1 making 60K, 1 making 40K and 1 making 30K. Now could it be that 200,000 in salary is still being paid out but the top guy makes 85K, the second guy makes 75K, they tell the third guy he can't get a raise because there is no money and lay off the last guy and blame the bad economy.

The average income of the top 30% has skyrocketed since 1980, the bottom 70% has stayed exactly the same.
[/quote]

This would be the squeeze on the middle class... When your largest working class sector (by population) is the hardest hit in downtimes, matters will only get worse. And, yes, the economy is bad.

[quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1345918505' post='1151067']
there were 32 loan officers at my sisters company when she started, now there are 3, 29 loan officers are on unemployment.

the rich didnt fire themselves, they fired the middle and bottom.

the percentage of people without jobs is higher.

the top percentages you stated about got richer, they saved themselves. they werent in sub prime mortgages, they didnt lose their houses..

rental costs have increased 20% since i was last renting. because people couldnt buy houses anymore..

your last sentiments are most accurate, IMO. very few directors got cut at my sisters job, but 90% of her job did, and she now does way more work, so they started paying less-per-item so the people at her position are working 3x as hard and making, actually, slightly less than before. she works 55-60 hrs a week to make less than she did making 40 hrs a week 3 years ago...
[/quote]

This - the economy is definitely down... look at house values, foreclosure rates (yes, they're still high), look at interest rates on both sides... they're historically low and are projected to stay that way for at least into late 2013, mid 2014... You can look at the 5 year federal reserve rate and tell that - they're paying so little it is laughable. We're approaching savings rates where FI's can't pay you less without charging you to have your money with them.

Paying 1 what you used to pay 30 doesn't mean the economy is doing well. It means your middle class is getting squeezed and it'll have dramatic effects long term. No expendable cash means no movies, eating out, buying "stuff"... all of that has a profound impact to the economy as a whole. Not to mention the cost of gasoline, frankly, is making everyone cash poor... when the cost per gallon has gone up over $1.50 in the last 5-6 years that has severe ripple effect as well... you pay more to drive your car, you pay more to buy the groceries since it cost more to get them there, etc.

And, I don't see either of the two major party clowns fixing it.
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[quote name='MichaelWeston' timestamp='1345919451' post='1151072']
Great thoughts guys. Interesting discussion. I think (certainly don't know) that the economy is moved a lot based on perception. Which makes political scare tactics about how the country economy will go to hell if we don't vote for _________, that much more despicable. Take Obama care,[b] I think that it really would not have that much of an effect on small business's,[/b] however the small business's have been convinced that it will so now they say they can't grow etc. due to it or until they understand it. I am sure that the other side does similar things.
[/quote]

I'm not advocating for or against Obamacare in this, please understand that... but it definitely can have a major effect on small businesses. The key is whether they have 10 employees or not. Once you hit 10 employees there are mandates that you provide insurance or pay a penalty / tax / fine for failing to provide it. I've spoken with small business owners that have started planning and budgeting to pay the fine since it is less than what it'd cost to provide insurance.

Again, not advocating either way, just saying that there are definite ramifications for folks... now, does a lot of stuff get blown out of proportion? Sure, the buzz words are used to scare people... older folks is medicare and prescription drugs, Social security, etc.
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[url="http://www.businessinsider.com/politics-economics-facts-charts-2012-6"][color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Okay, Folks, Let's Put Aside Politics And Look At The Facts... [CHARTS][/size][/font][/color][/url]


Btw, this for me explains why Obama tried to get something done with healthcare before doing anything else. (even if I think Obamacare is fascist and needs to be replaced with a public option)
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This is one area where H1B visas hurt too i think(which romney loves and wants more of). I work with people here on these visas pretty regularly. They are nice people just trying to work.

The problem is that they usually contribute very little to the local economy. They are here on a 1 year work visa(if they can get canada to give them a visa after there year is up possibly 2).

They move here. Buy furniture, car,etc.. from outgoing contractors. Then rent 6 people share a one bedroom apartment and send there the bulk of there income back home. Then the cycle repeats.


[quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1345918946' post='1151070']
valid point, all those people who lost jobs stopped buying new things, atleast buying them as much, which creates a smaller need at retail, less employees, etc..
[/quote]
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O&B has stated a few times the idea of boosting investment as a way of fixing our economic problems, and looking at the GDP formula that is one of the items so it stands to reason that if investment boosted we could fix some of this mess.

Here is the problem with this thinking though, REASONS to invest. If there is no demand in the economy because people don't have jobs or good wages or disposable income to spend the "job creators" (snickers) have no reason to invest here, that's why they are investing overseas and not at home, the tax stuff he points to is a minor problem compared to the notion that people don't have good paying jobs. If you look at my link provided two posts above you can see taxes aren't the issue to an extent we need to raise them and cut some waste, but what the issue is in 3 bullet points is . 1) Wages, corporate profits are as high as they have ever been while wages remain low, (remember that globalization doesn't work argument I keep making?) 2) Speculation in Oil Markets is driving up the price on gas which is causing less disposable income for folks to spend and taking demand out of the market. 3) The high cost of medicare, medicaid, and social security as a percentage of GDP.

So what can the government do to fix some of these?

1.) Raise the minimum wage, raising this would drive up wages for everyone, and corporations who are making more profit than ever may have to shave some of that profit, but if there aren't people to buy their products its a short sided point of view they are taking.

2.) Stop this free trade garbage, the founders put tariffs on trade for a reason, go back to them. it doesnt have to be high as that might cause a trade war, but a percentage point here or there isn't going to do that, and it would be enough to bring in some serious revenue.

3.) Fixing the cost of health care to address the medicare/medicare issue. The CBO last I checked seems to think Obamacare will drive down costs, even if I dont like it philosophically.

4.) Means testing on both Medicare/Medicaid and SS. There is no reason to cut checks to the higher income folks, I'm sorry but spare the the class warfare talk, this is a matter of getting these issues under control.

5.) A small finical transaction tax will help to curb speculation not just on the oil markets but period, helping at least in part to not allow all these bubbles to get out of hand.

The notion of getting more wealth in the hands of the lower and middle class isnt "socialism" its vital for a healthy economy, here is why. We need to create demand in the economy again, and there are a few ways to do that, government spending is only one of them.

It is only when we get more wealth in the hands of the average consumer will the investors or "job creators" (still snikering) have a reason to invest domestically.

[url="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-tax-cuts-for-rich-wont-fix-the-economy-2012-8"]http://www.businessi...-economy-2012-8[/url]

[quote][color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Pillow Mogul Explains Why Mitt Romney's Tax Cuts For The Rich Won't Fix The Economy...[/size][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]As I've described frequently over the last few months, I had high hopes for Mitt Romney's economic plan.[/size][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Alas, until very recently--yesterday, in fact--Romney's stated economic solution has strongly suggested that he either doesn't understand what's wrong with the U.S. economy, or, worse, doesn't care (as long he gives himself and other super-high-earners a tax cut).[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Specifically, until yesterday, Romney has said that the way to fix our economy is to give the richest Americans and richest American companies a tax break, so they can [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-tax-cuts-for-rich-wont-fix-the-economy-2012-8#"][font=inherit][size=1][background=transparent]start[/background][/size][/font][font=inherit][size=1][background=transparent] [/background][/size][/font][font=inherit][size=1][background=transparent]investing[/background][/size][/font][/url] and spending.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]The reason this won't work is that the problem in the economy is not that the richest Americans and companies don't have enough money to spend and invest--they have plenty of it. The [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/income-inequality-2012-8"]richest Americans have captured almost all of the growth in incomes over the past decade[/url] and now earn an astoundingly high percentage of the nation's total income. Corporate profit margins, meanwhile, [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-the-economy-in-one-simple-chart-2012-8"]are at an all-time high[/url], and companies have excess cash coming out of their ears.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]The real reason the economy is struggling is that the vast American middle class--the "20%-90% of wage earners" is strapped. After adjusting for inflation, [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-the-economy-in-one-simple-chart-2012-8"]average hourly earnings in this country have not increased in more than 50 years[/url]. Middle class jobs have been shipped overseas. Tax policy has rewarded the "owner" class rather than the worker class. And so on.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]For several decades leading up to the [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-tax-cuts-for-rich-wont-fix-the-economy-2012-8#"][font=inherit][size=1][background=transparent]financial[/background][/size][/font][/url] crisis, the American consumer made up for stagnant incomes by borrowing. But then, just before the financial crisis, consumers collective debt load became too much, and now the consumer is "deleveraging" (read: spending less and saving more).[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]As any business executive will tell you, when your customers are hurting, your business is hurting. And the [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/romney-economy-plan-2012-8"]primary customers of most companies that operate in the United States are American consumers[/url], who are hurting.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]So if you want to do something to help the U.S. economy, you don't give the "owner" class another tax break. You give the tax break to the [i]middle class[/i]. And you maintain government spending and postpone the eventually-very-much-needed deficit reduction until the middle class is stronger and the private sector is strongly recovering.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Now, yesterday, [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/mitt-romney"]Mitt Romney[/url] changed his message on that. Specifically, he [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-tax-cuts-and-government-spending-2012-8"]started talking about giving America a [i]middle-class tax cut[/i].[/url] And he suggested that he would like to [url="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-tax-cuts-and-government-spending-2012-8"]put off government spending cuts until later[/url], thus ignoring the deficit for the time being.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]That's a big change of message.[/size][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]And it suggests that Mitt Romney finally does understand what's wrong with the economy (or, at least, what American voters will respond to).[/size][/font][/color]



[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]But in case he doesn't, here's another anecdote, this one from Nick Hanauer, a highly successful entrepreneur and businessman and the owner of a mid-size [/size][/font][/color][url="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romneys-tax-cuts-for-rich-wont-fix-the-economy-2012-8#"][font=inherit][size=1][background=transparent]business[/background][/size][/font][/url][color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3] that sells down comforters and pillows:[/size][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]My family business is the Pacific Coast Feather Company, one of the country's largest manufacturers of bed pillows and down comforters. Sales are approximately $300 million per year. [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Business sucks, and the reason is that not that many people can afford to buy a pillow every year anymore. [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]The problem is that even though people like me and Mitt Romney make 1000 times the median wage, both of us only have 2 pillows on our beds. Not 2,000. If we had a more reasonable distribution of income, I'd sell a shitload more pillows. [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]And that's the key:[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Most of the spending in this country comes from average Americans, not "the 1%" or "the 0.1%." Giving the 1% more money to spend and invest won't help, because they're already got all the money they need.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3](The 1% would obviously enjoy a tax cut--who wouldn't? But that doesn't mean it would fix the economy).[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][size=3]Happily, Mitt Romney appears to be changing his tune on what he will do to help the economy. His new message suggests that he will ignore the deficit for the time being, which the Tea Party won't like. But his new emphasis is far more likely to help the ailing economy.[/size][/font][/color]
[/quote]
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