Early 53 Man Guess

[T-Dub]

3 hours ago, sparky151 said:

 

But over the course of the full season, the Bengals CB rankings from PFF were 18th overall for Hilton, 60th for CTB, 72nd for Chido and 109th for Turner. 

 

Let's hope CTB and Turner improve but even if they each moved up 20 spots, they'd still be well below average for a CB1 and CB2. 

 

 

Mims, Jenkins, Burton, and Jackson are locks. Newton and 1 of the TEs are highly likely. But the last 3 picks are no sure things to make the 53. 

 

 

Not playing cap games is a self-imposed disadvantage. There are times to go for it and 2024 should have been one of those years. Bengals are always in good cap health, which is nice but so is Philadelphia who hands out big contracts pretty freely and keeps the guys who live up to them while moving on from the underachievers.  A small scouting department isn't that big an issue. We probably won't find another future NFL MVP at Augustana but there's enough issue on the top thousand or so prospects to be able to bring in a dozen or more good football players each rookie class.

 

 

Poor drafting is a huge issue, they've drafted busts very highly and reached for marginal players 2-3 rounds before anyone else had them graded. They then compound the problem by refusing to move on from the underachievers. A player can simply show up every day and get chummy with ownership to be guaranteed to play out their contract. The Bengals rarely cut or fire anyone no matter how bad they screw up or what results they get & everyone in the building knows it.

[claptonrocks]

On 5/9/2024 at 4:17 PM, sparky151 said:

 

I'm not too worried about the D-line, much more worried about the CB group and our general lack of a running game. 

Lack of a running game?

With the Skyline up front, Moss and Brown should find gaps that weren't there last season..

 

 

[claptonrocks]

On 5/9/2024 at 4:18 PM, dex said:

I'm glad that the Bengals brought back Vonn Bell on a bargain deal, but what has Jordan Battle done to lose the starter job that he earned late last season? Anarumo and the other coaches claim to love Battle. So does Pro Football Focus:

 

Battle was one of the highest-graded college safeties heading into the 2023 NFL Draft, and while he fell to the third round and didn’t get a starting job until Week 11 of his rookie season, all of those strong metrics remained. Battle earned top-10 marks at his position, both overall (82.5) and in run defense (81.3), while also adding a 76.4 PFF coverage grade (17th). He should be locked in as a full-time starter to kick off 2024 and continue his impressive play for the Bengals.

 

 

Agree about Battles ascension so quickly.

Good depth there.

It's a long season.

[claptonrocks]

42 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

Poor drafting is a huge issue, they've drafted busts very highly and reached for marginal players 2-3 rounds before anyone else had them graded. They then compound the problem by refusing to move on from the underachievers. A player can simply show up every day and get chummy with ownership to be guaranteed to play out their contract. The Bengals rarely cut or fire anyone no matter how bad they screw up or what results they get & everyone in the building knows it.

Its also keeping their end of a contract both sides signed.

Players now and in the past would concur with that.

 

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, T-Dub said:

 

Poor drafting is a huge issue, they've drafted busts very highly and reached for marginal players 2-3 rounds before anyone else had them graded. They then compound the problem by refusing to move on from the underachievers. A player can simply show up every day and get chummy with ownership to be guaranteed to play out their contract. The Bengals rarely cut or fire anyone no matter how bad they screw up or what results they get & everyone in the building knows it.

 

Burrow and Chase are the only Bengal first rounders of recent years to make an impact, both as rookies and in 2023. Hill and Murphy haven't shown anything and guys like Ross, Price, and Williams who should be on their second contract are gonzo. So give the team credit for not blowing the obvious pick of Burrow and making the right choice of Chase over Sewell (or Parsons). But outside of the top 5, who has outperformed their draft status? Hill was drafted earlier than Bates but isn't close to being as good a player. Hubbard, Pratt, and Wilson were 3rd rounders who have become solid starters but that's about what you expect. Likewise Tee was the 33rd pick of the draft and has become a good WR. Boyd had a nice career here too. But the O-line and D-line were built via free agency. The secondary as well. Where are the day 3 gems that other teams find, usually 1 or 2 per year? 

 

34 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

Lack of a running game?

With the Skyline up front, Moss and Brown should find gaps that weren't there last season..

 

 

 

That's what we said last year after signing OBj. But it didn't happen. And Volson is a better run blocker than pass protector.

 

31 minutes ago, claptonrocks said:

Its also keeping their end of a contract both sides signed.

Players now and in the past would concur with that.

 

 

Teams cut players under contract every year. "Honoring a contract" is nonsense in the NFL, just blah-blah from management when they don't want to pay a player his free market rate. 

[claptonrocks]

12 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

Burrow and Chase are the only Bengal first rounders of recent years to make an impact, both as rookies and in 2023. Hill and Murphy haven't shown anything and guys like Ross, Price, and Williams who should be on their second contract are gonzo. So give the team credit for not blowing the obvious pick of Burrow and making the right choice of Chase over Sewell (or Parsons). But outside of the top 5, who has outperformed their draft status? Hill was drafted earlier than Bates but isn't close to being as good a player. Hubbard, Pratt, and Wilson were 3rd rounders who have become solid starters but that's about what you expect. Likewise Tee was the 33rd pick of the draft and has become a good WR. Boyd had a nice career here too. But the O-line and D-line were built via free agency. The secondary as well. Where are the day 3 gems that other teams find, usually 1 or 2 per year? 

 

 

That's what we said last year after signing OBj. But it didn't happen. And Volson is a better run blocker than pass protector.

 

 

Teams cut players under contract every year. "Honoring a contract" is nonsense in the NFL, just blah-blah from management when they don't want to pay a player his free market rate. 

Allright then..

Guess this team of shit players won't be worth watching right?

[T-Dub]

54 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

 

That's what we said last year after signing OBj. But it didn't happen

 

They're still gassing him up!  I thought he was underwhelming last year but I wasn't focused on him.  The whole OL stank (again, predictably, largely because of their stubborn devotion to playing the already-struggling and recently demoted Jonah out of position instead of trading him like he asked because that would mean he "won" or whatever the fuck) so.. once Burrow went out I admit I skipped some games, being out of TV market & disgusted in watching it inevitably unfold.  Still, aside from wasting another season of JB's career on a bunk OL there was a whole lot of talk about signing this particular guy away from KC with not much to show for it,

 

Then I recently saw someone refer to him as The Bodyguard or whatever and thought, "didn't we try that with Collins? Or was that also Glenn? Riley Reiff? Who can keep track of Shitty Bengals Right Tackles honestly?" So I went and looked the guy up.

 

After all that hype he allowed 7 sacks last year (T-13th). PFF claims he gave up the most QB pressure of any LT with 50. 

 

Granted I don't put much faith in PFF with those sort of viewer judgement stats & 13th isn't the absolute worst.. But where is this bad-ass "bodyguard" LT we stole from the Chiefs? You think they'd want him back at a discount after the season he just had?  The team's PR flacks are carrying on about his leadership and all this noise that does nothing but confirm they know he flopped but choose to ignore it.  Great leadership there.

 

Again begs the question of where Pollack lands in all this.  Brown's only the latest expensive FA lineman that's come here to have his worst season as a pro. The really good ones end up struggling to be average and the rest just struggle.  I don't know if it's really that wide-zone scheme business but like the scouting dept or anything else, when you make a big deal out of doing something differently than every one of your peers you better make damn sure you don't look worse than all of them in doing it. 

 

Sometimes this organization seems to think they can outsmart everyone else instead of just doing the work.

 

 

 

 

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, claptonrocks said:

Allright then..

Guess this team of shit players won't be worth watching right?

 

The NFL is QB centric and ours is elite. But Joe could use some help, both from the O-line, running game, and defense. Tee will probably be gone after this season. Even obvious, low cost moves like keeping Vonn Bell last year or extending Karras and Hilton for a year don't get done. Let alone smarter moves like trading down in the 2023 draft and taking advantage of another team's willingness to overpay for Will Levis. Or replacing Frank Pollack with a better O-line coach. 

[claptonrocks]

42 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

 

The NFL is QB centric and ours is elite. But Joe could use some help, both from the O-line, running game, and defense. Tee will probably be gone after this season. Even obvious, low cost moves like keeping Vonn Bell last year or extending Karras and Hilton for a year don't get done. Let alone smarter moves like trading down in the 2023 draft and taking advantage of another team's willingness to overpay for Will Levis. Or replacing Frank Pollack with a better O-line coach. 

Alright then..

[dex]

Anarumo has been a good defensive coordinator in Cincinnati, but last year was a disaster on that side. Keep in mind that all 6 of the premium picks in the 2022 and '23 drafts were defensive players. We know that Anaumro is always talking up versatility so in '22 the Bengals drafted DHill and Carter in the premium rounds mostly because they had versatility traits. Hill is still searching for a role in the secondary and Carter may get pushed off the 53 man roster.

 

Ossai was the 3rd round pick in the 2021 draft. Anarumo got 2 more premium picks in the 2024 draft, which now means that 9 out of the last 11 1st-2nd-3rd round picks have been defensive players. That is a lot.

[T-Dub]

1 minute ago, dex said:

Anarumo has been a good defensive coordinator in Cincinnati, but last year was a disaster on that side. Keep in mind that all 6 of the premium picks in the 2022 and '23 drafts were defensive players. We know that Anaumro is always talking up versatility so in '22 the Bengals drafted DHill and Carter in the premium rounds mostly because they had versatility traits. Hill is still searching for a role in the secondary and Carter may get pushed off the 53 man roster.

 

Ossai was the 3rd round pick in the 2021 draft. Anarumo got 2 more premium picks in the 2024 draft, which now means that 9 out of the last 11 1st-2nd-3rd round picks have been defensive players. That is a lot.

 

 

Wonder where Murphy is supposed to fit in with Hendrickson under contract for 2 more years...  That's a high pick for a rotational pass rusher.

[I_C_Deadpeople]

12 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

 

Wonder where Murphy is supposed to fit in with Hendrickson under contract for 2 more years...  That's a high pick for a rotational pass rusher.

Like any player, he can earn more playing time regardless of where he was drafted. Hubbard and Trey play too many snaps as it is so I am more than happy to have other DE’s who could be starters. 

[dex]

12 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

 

Wonder where Murphy is supposed to fit in with Hendrickson under contract for 2 more years...  That's a high pick for a rotational pass rusher.

Pretty sure they see Murphy as a 3 down linemen. Murphy is very much like Mims - a guy with tremendous physical traits who only spent 3 years in college with only limited production. Fans tend to overlook how young Murphy was as a rookie and still is. Even with a new draft class/UDFAs and already a year in the NFL Murphy is somehow STILL the 3rd youngest player on the entire roster. Mims and Cedric Johnson are like 3-4 months younger than Murphy, everyone else is older.

[sparky151]

14 hours ago, dex said:

Anarumo has been a good defensive coordinator in Cincinnati, but last year was a disaster on that side. Keep in mind that all 6 of the premium picks in the 2022 and '23 drafts were defensive players. We know that Anaumro is always talking up versatility so in '22 the Bengals drafted DHill and Carter in the premium rounds mostly because they had versatility traits. Hill is still searching for a role in the secondary and Carter may get pushed off the 53 man roster.

 

Ossai was the 3rd round pick in the 2021 draft. Anarumo got 2 more premium picks in the 2024 draft, which now means that 9 out of the last 11 1st-2nd-3rd round picks have been defensive players. That is a lot.

 

Ossai was in 2022, it was Wilson who was the 3rd rounder in 2021. Pratt in 2020.

 

But I agree with your point that our defense is still dependent on players we've brought in as free agents, the draftees haven't done much. We'll be starting Hilton, Stone, Bell, Hendrickson, Hill, and Rankins this year who were all signed in free agency. That's half the defense despite all the picks thrown at it. 

[MichaelWeston]

Some thoughts about the 53 man roster and 2025. 

 

Here is what we have for 2025 if we want it (assuming all made the team which won't happen)

 

QB	Burrow 29	Browning 26	Lombardi 27
RB	Moss 26	Brown 27	Collins 27	Cain 27
WR	Chase 26	Iosivas 27	Pryor
WR	Burton 28	Jackson	Burgess 27
WR	Jones 27	Lassiter	Mosley 27
TE	Sample 27	All 28	McClachlan 28	Grandy 27
LT	Brown 27
LG	Volson 26
C	Lee 28	Gilliam
RG	Cappa 26	Kirkland
RT	Mims 29	Cochran 25	Miller 27
K
P	Robbins 27	McNamara 27
LS	Adomitis 25
LE	Hubbard 26	Johnson 28	Gunter
LT	Jenkins 28	Jackson 28	Davis
RT	Rankins 26	Bell 25	Carter 26	Maxwell 26
RE	Hendrickson 26	Murphy 27	Blazek 27
WLB	Pratt 26	Heyward	Njongmeta 27
MLB	Wilson 28	Harper 26	Casey 27
SLB
S	Battle 27	Anthony 28	Dowell 27
S	Stone 26	Anderson 26	Jules 27
CB	Taylor-Britt 26	Newton 28	Robinson 28
CB	Turner 27	Ivey 27
NB	Hill 27	George

 

Thoughts

QB: We have maybe the best QB unit in the league.

RB: I'd love to see them grab someone else out there but I could see them go with T Will and Evans or go short at RB with just 3 and keep 5 TEs

WR: I am maybe overly optimistic but I see another starter somewhere in Yoshi-Jones-Lassiter-Jackson-Pryor or Burgess. We are built with a great QB, terrific WR coach and now some snaps available for some of the depth we have had at the position. Higgins is gone after 2024, I am hopeful that someone steps up and shows they are a capable starter to go along with Burton and Chase

TE: I can see them keeping all 5, I can see All starting on the PUP so they can keep 5, If they go with 4 I think it's McLachlan over Hudson because you get 3 more years on a cheap contract for similar production. I can also see them trading Hudson to the Titans if all 4 are healthy. People are forgetting that Burrow loved Hudson and he was very good. 39 catches-352 yards in 12 games when he started the season on the practice squad. 

OL: The long-term starters appear to be in place but the depth isn't there. I would assume that they sign some sort of extension with Karras. Probably add a year or 2 at 6M per

STs: McPherson is up for a contract extension probably in the 4-5M range for 3-4 years

DE: Ossai, Sample are free agents at years end and Hendrickson's status is a bit up in the air. Because of that Johnson might make it a bit easier

LB: Top 2 are back but then both Bachie and ADG will be free agents. After ADGs surprise return it wouldn't be a surprise to see him back again. Like WR it would be good to have one of Heyward, Harper, Casey and Njongmeta step up. 

S: Could easily see Battle take a step back and then start in 2025. 

CB: This will come down to Hill. I believe his natural college position is nickel corner. I'd love to have Hilton back at a reasonable deal but I get it if he doesn't return. 

 

[sparky151]

Extending Karras for a year would make sense. But go against the Bengals usual modus operandi. I agree Tee will be playing his final year in Cincinnati in 2024. But a tag and trade would make sense. Tee probably won't mind if we raise his value to 26 mil and we can get draft pick in 2025 instead of a comp pick in 2026. We'll probably extend Uno next offseason but even at a top rate, we'll have plenty of cap space. I assume McPherson will get extended this summer. And Hilton is probably going into his final year here since they have Dax sitting around.

 

Right now it looks like the only member of the 2021 draft class who will make it to 2025 is Chase. I could see Cam Sample re-signed after not getting interest on the open market. But Carman, Smith, and Hill should be gone, maybe even this year. Ossai was in the doghouse last year but should make the roster this season.

 

ADG didn't seem to have much of a market this year so that will probably continue next year too. Gesicki looks like a 1 year rental. 

 

Scharping had guard/center flexibility so re-signing him makes sense. I doubt they will go for Risner, even if he drops his price a good bit. This roster doesn't have much depth, mainly due to poor drafting. We only have 1 starter (Volson) who was a day 3 pick. I think ADG and Trayveon Williams are the only day 3 picks from the last 6 or more years who are still on the roster but not on their rookie deals. 

[T-Dub]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:58 AM, sparky151 said:

Extending Karras for a year would make sense. But go against the Bengals usual modus operandi. I agree Tee will be playing his final year in Cincinnati in 2024. But a tag and trade would make sense. Tee probably won't mind if we raise his value to 26 mil and we can get draft pick in 2025 instead of a comp pick in 2026. We'll probably extend Uno next offseason but even at a top rate, we'll have plenty of cap space. I assume McPherson will get extended this summer. And Hilton is probably going into his final year here since they have Dax sitting around.

 

Right now it looks like the only member of the 2021 draft class who will make it to 2025 is Chase. I could see Cam Sample re-signed after not getting interest on the open market. But Carman, Smith, and Hill should be gone, maybe even this year. Ossai was in the doghouse last year but should make the roster this season.

 

ADG didn't seem to have much of a market this year so that will probably continue next year too. Gesicki looks like a 1 year rental. 

 

Scharping had guard/center flexibility so re-signing him makes sense. I doubt they will go for Risner, even if he drops his price a good bit. This roster doesn't have much depth, mainly due to poor drafting. We only have 1 starter (Volson) who was a day 3 pick. I think ADG and Trayveon Williams are the only day 3 picks from the last 6 or more years who are still on the roster but not on their rookie deals. 

 

What if Duke Tobin isn't actually an amazing draft guru & getting far too much credit for Burrow & Chase?  I saw that quote "Duke Tobin has done it again!" and sarcastic SOB that I am, I know that's going to be running through my head every time Burrow gets sacked this season.

 

I can accept that he's an average NFL GM overall but what has he done that's so exceptional?  Was there some amazing trade or contract maneuver that I missed?

[|BlackJesus|]

3 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 Was there some amazing trade I missed?

 

... Billy Price for BJ Hill is about as lopsided as you'll get in a direct player for player trade. 

[sparky151]

15 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

What if Duke Tobin isn't actually an amazing draft guru & getting far too much credit for Burrow & Chase?  I saw that quote "Duke Tobin has done it again!" and sarcastic SOB that I am, I know that's going to be running through my head every time Burrow gets sacked this season.

 

I can accept that he's an average NFL GM overall but what has he done that's so exceptional?  Was there some amazing trade or contract maneuver that I missed?

 

Making the obvious pick of Burrow covers Tobin for a lot of sins. With the benefit of hindsight, taking Chase over Sewell was probably the right pick (I favored Sewell at the time). But overall, his draft record is poor. Teams need to hit on their first round picks and it leaves holes in the roster when they whiff. Our last 10 first round picks (the guys who are on their rookie deals or their 2nd contracts with the team) are Ogbuehi, Jackson, Ross, Price, Williams, Burrow, Chase, Hill, Murphy, and Mims. I'm optimistic about Mims and Joe and Ja'Marr are pro-bowlers. But the rest are either not very good or haven't shown anything yet. When the furthest back first rounder on your roster is a guy who could still be on his rookie contract, you're not drafting well. 

 

Compounding the first round problem is the lack of day 3 hits. We have 1 starter in Volson and plus some backups who were drafted by the team on day 3. Most of those picks won't turn into starters but we need to hit on 1 or 2 per year. Instead we have 1 from the last 5 years. What's Tobin's excuse, is he just going to point to the kicker and punter? We basically lucked into Burrow and that's the foundation of the current franchise. If we'd had the top pick in 2022 instead of 2020, we'd be near the bottom of the league. We'd be the team trying to turn Kenny Pickett into an NFL franchise QB. 

 

12 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

 

... Billy Price for BJ Hill is about as lopsided as you'll get in a direct player for player trade. 

 

Eh, Hill has had a better career since the trade but we traded our backup center for their backup DT. Hill had 8 sacks his first year here then has faded since then. Maybe adding Rankins and Jenkins will help him stay fresher and be more productive. Or maybe he's a cap casualty.  

 

Agree that Price didn't amount to anything. He retired from the NFL today for medical reasons but wasn't in big demand even if he were healthy.