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Jpoore

Mike williams pro day

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14 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

The OL doesn't have to be perfect with AD's release being what it is (2nd only to Brady IIRC) - he's made a pedestrian group look pretty good in the past. I would not be counting on Eifert or Gio at all, though.  Even so, I agree we have plenty of receiving threats without them.

Eh. That's if you're under the belief that hundredths (a tenth or 2 tenths in some cases) of a second on average difference means we don't need a great o-line to be successful. I'm not one of those guys. In 2015 there were 20(!!!) QBs at or below the 2.5 second mark. 

We were the 6th least pressured team in 2015, NE ranked 16th and DEN 22nd. Andy had an average release time of 2.20 that year, Tom Brady 2.26 and Peyton Manning 2.27. If anyone wants to believe Andy throwing an average of 0.07 of a second faster "made a pedestrian group look pretty good", that's on them. I won't be one to make that argument as it doesn't seem very realistic. I'm a huge Andy fan, but we've also had a GREAT pass blocking line throughout his tenure. We've consistently ranked right around the top 10 or better in pressure ratings and it's not like Andy is releasing the ball a full second below the league average or anything.

I don't have the data for last year, but I did find that Alex Smith was the quickest release (of starters) with a 2.37 avg, which means Andy definitely wasn't at his previous 2.20.

I'm not entirely sure, but I feel like QB release times have more to do with the scheme on offense than anything else. I've seen people on message boards use Andy's release time to bash the o-line, I've seen it used to bash Andy, I've seen it used to make it seem like Andy is a better QB than he is, I've seen all the arguments before. Personally I just don't put a lot of stock into it being a meaningful statistic. There seems to be no real consistent correlation with release time and pressure rates. There are guys like Wilson, Rodgers, and Rapistberger that I'd bet are all at the bottom of the quick release list, but does that mean they have the best pass blocking lines? Nah, we all know those are guys very well known to extend the play. The Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots are all teams that have employed a strategy of getting rid of the ball quickly for at least the past few years.

TLDR; I think 99% of what average QB release time tells us is "what type of QB is it and what type of scheme does their offense run"

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On 3/18/2017 at 1:01 AM, Jpoore said:


I would love minter. But if that was the case and we were really gonna draft foster, why not release malaluga?

Sent from my 2PYB2 using Go-Bengals.com mobile app
 

Why release him until you draft Foster?

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On 3/21/2017 at 7:47 AM, omgdrdoom said:

Eh. That's if you're under the belief that hundredths (a tenth or 2 tenths in some cases) of a second on average difference means we don't need a great o-line to be successful. I'm not one of those guys. In 2015 there were 20(!!!) QBs at or below the 2.5 second mark. 

We were the 6th least pressured team in 2015, NE ranked 16th and DEN 22nd. Andy had an average release time of 2.20 that year, Tom Brady 2.26 and Peyton Manning 2.27. If anyone wants to believe Andy throwing an average of 0.07 of a second faster "made a pedestrian group look pretty good", that's on them. I won't be one to make that argument as it doesn't seem very realistic. I'm a huge Andy fan, but we've also had a GREAT pass blocking line throughout his tenure. We've consistently ranked right around the top 10 or better in pressure ratings and it's not like Andy is releasing the ball a full second below the league average or anything.

I don't have the data for last year, but I did find that Alex Smith was the quickest release (of starters) with a 2.37 avg, which means Andy definitely wasn't at his previous 2.20.

I'm not entirely sure, but I feel like QB release times have more to do with the scheme on offense than anything else. I've seen people on message boards use Andy's release time to bash the o-line, I've seen it used to bash Andy, I've seen it used to make it seem like Andy is a better QB than he is, I've seen all the arguments before. Personally I just don't put a lot of stock into it being a meaningful statistic. There seems to be no real consistent correlation with release time and pressure rates. There are guys like Wilson, Rodgers, and Rapistberger that I'd bet are all at the bottom of the quick release list, but does that mean they have the best pass blocking lines? Nah, we all know those are guys very well known to extend the play. The Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots are all teams that have employed a strategy of getting rid of the ball quickly for at least the past few years.

TLDR; I think 99% of what average QB release time tells us is "what type of QB is it and what type of scheme does their offense run"

 

Eh, that's if you're under the belief that "pressure rating" is a legitimately quantifiable stat worth building a lengthy argument around.  If anyone wants to believe we have or had a great pass-blocking OL in a scheme that didn't ask them to do much more than slow the pass rush for a fraction of a second, that's on them. I won't be the one making that argument as it doesn't seem very realistic.

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13 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

Eh, that's if you're under the belief that "pressure rating" is a legitimately quantifiable stat worth building a lengthy argument around.  If anyone wants to believe we have or had a great pass-blocking OL in a scheme that didn't ask them to do much more than slow the pass rush for a fraction of a second, that's on them. I won't be the one making that argument as it doesn't seem very realistic.

Yeah. 

Someone that just mocks an entire thought out post definitely would know more than the guys that put out the advanced analytics. 

Would it kill you to actually debate the points like an adult? 

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9 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Yeah. 

Someone that just mocks an entire thought out post definitely would know more than the guys that put out the advanced analytics. 

Would it kill you to actually debate the points like an adult? 

 

I sometimes have difficulty telling the difference between "advanced analytics" and pulling stats out of one's ass.  Forgive me.

How would you explain it then?  I don't think losing Andre Smith made "a great pass-blocking OL" suddenly give up 41 sacks.  Either Andre is one of the greatest RT's to ever play the game, or the OL was grossly overrated.

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To me this WR class is pretty weak and OJ Howard is actually the top WR & TE of the bunch, despite playing TE. 

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agree wih OJ Howard... Besides being fast and a very good receiver he is an outstanding blocker

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Hopefully we draft a good RB also...I like Howard and Kamara from Tennessee.....I like Taylor Moton on the O Line and on the defensive side of the ball I agree with BJ...Jordan Willis and Kpassagnon

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3 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

I sometimes have difficulty telling the difference between "advanced analytics" and pulling stats out of one's ass.  Forgive me.

How would you explain it then?  I don't think losing Andre Smith made "a great pass-blocking OL" suddenly give up 41 sacks.  Either Andre is one of the greatest RT's to ever play the game, or the OL was grossly overrated.

Football Outsiders compiled the stats. They take the amount of pressures and the amount of snaps taken on offense and put them into percentages. Of course a "pressure" is definitely subjective, I'll give you that, but I doubt FO has some pro-Bengals bias where they'd rank us highly without it being at least somewhat legitimate. 

It's not just Andre. Ogbuehi was one of the worst tackles in the entire league so Andre didn't have to be amazing for the drop off to be so large, Boling was better in 2015 than 2016, and Bodine was on and off struggling at times as well.

Going by sacks alone doesn't tell nearly enough of the story. TeamA could give up 100 more overall pressures and 5 less sacks than TeamB and I'll take TeamA all day long. However... 

We can go round and round all day. We've had great pass blocking lines in Andy's career and I refuse to give him all the credit for throwing a few hundredths of a second faster than other QBs. You can gladly disagree, but I'd just like to see more reasoning from you than "because I said so" and "41 sacks". 

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44 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Football Outsiders compiled the stats. They take the amount of pressures and the amount of snaps taken on offense and put them into percentages. Of course a "pressure" is definitely subjective, I'll give you that, but I doubt FO has some pro-Bengals bias where they'd rank us highly without it being at least somewhat legitimate. 

It's not just Andre. Ogbuehi was one of the worst tackles in the entire league so Andre didn't have to be amazing for the drop off to be so large, Boling was better in 2015 than 2016, and Bodine was on and off struggling at times as well.

Going by sacks alone doesn't tell nearly enough of the story. TeamA could give up 100 more overall pressures and 5 less sacks than TeamB and I'll take TeamA all day long. However... 

We can go round and round all day. We've had great pass blocking lines in Andy's career and I refuse to give him all the credit for throwing a few hundredths of a second faster than other QBs. You can gladly disagree, but I'd just like to see more reasoning from you than "because I said so" and "41 sacks". 

 

Well, sacks are a lot less ambiguous than pressures as far as that goes.  I don't think it's simply throwing the ball faster - it's having an offense built around it.  You'll notice most of our deep shots come off PA or some other kind of bootleg/moving-pociket play? They don't trust the OL to protect long enough for deep routes to develop otherwise.  At least, that's my interpretation.

Also, and I've said this before, when an offense is consistently rated in the low 20's or worse in YPC rushing, you simply don't have a good offensive line.  I don't believe in a great pass-blocking OL that sucks at run blocking.  They should be at least average.

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5 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

Well, sacks are a lot less ambiguous than pressures as far as that goes.  I don't think it's simply throwing the ball faster - it's having an offense built around it.  You'll notice most of our deep shots come off PA or some other kind of bootleg/moving-pociket play? They don't trust the OL to protect long enough for deep routes to develop otherwise.  At least, that's my interpretation.

Also, and I've said this before, when an offense is consistently rated in the low 20's or worse in YPC rushing, you simply don't have a good offensive line.  I don't believe in a great pass-blocking OL that sucks at run blocking.  They should be at least average.

Aye, I think we'll have to agree to disagree with the main bullet point here. 

I definitely think our line over the years has been proof that you can have above average pass blocking with below average run blocking. I will agree that schemes could have made our pass blocking look better than it really is, but probably not as much as you do.

I think you're underrating our pass protection and maybe being a bit overly critical of them because you watch every snap and pay close attention to them where you may not laser focus on the line when you have the Lions vs the Seahawks on in the background. That's one reason I've started to rely a lot on advanced statistics (and the basic ones too) because I've found myself more harsh on Bengals players or even sometimes too lenient if it's one of my favorites. I've been trying harder to be a more objective fan, but I still have strong opinions about most things as you can probably tell. 

So, in spirit of the thread, how do you feel about Mike Williams right now? I think if we go WR I want him all day over Ross because I don't think lack of a little speedster is the problem on offense and Williams could help out on short routes when the line is inevitably worse this year. 

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24 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

So, in spirit of the thread, how do you feel about Mike Williams right now? I think if we go WR I want him all day over Ross because I don't think lack of a little speedster is the problem on offense and Williams could help out on short routes when the line is inevitably worse this year. 

 

Yeah I think you're right about that, but I can't shake the feeling that there will be a defensive player there that's just as good.  Full disclosure, however;  for one I think the draft is beyond overhyped and that 1-2 spots in draft position, hell 1-2 rounds in most cases, don't have much to do with whether Player A is any better than Player B.  I also suspect the Bengals over-value offensive skill guys because we want to throw the ball 40 times a game. I used to blame the OC's but I think it's coming from above them.

Point being, I've watched a UDFA become arguably the best player on our defense & I've seen a bunch of top draft picks struggle to be average.  There's a good chance that some no-name WR taken in the 4th round ends up having a better career than either Williams or Ross, so I guess I'm kind of like.. whatever? At the end of the day.  I think MB's influence on the draft board definitely, er, clouds the picture to put it nicely. IDK if we're drafting someone because they're hands down the best player or if maybe they volunteer at a soup kitchen.

Sorry to sound so apathetic but when I have no faith in the coaches it's hard to get excited about the roster.  I only hope they avoid projects, injured players, and guys MB wants to "redeem" for Good Boy Points and get some prospective solid football players. Until they show up on the field they're just a bunch of names to me.  Nobody knows if Ross or Williams or Leon Sandcastle from East Omaha Tech is a better player until they start lining up on Sundays, regardless of how much Mel Kiper or whoever might huff and puff.

 

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3 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

To me this WR class is pretty weak and OJ Howard is actually the top WR & TE of the bunch, despite playing TE. 

couldn't agree more

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My receiver board in 1 would be Ross, Davis, Williams.

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12 hours ago, BlackJesus said:

To me this WR class is pretty weak and OJ Howard is actually the top WR & TE of the bunch, despite playing TE. 

12 hours ago, New Jersey Bengal said:

agree wih OJ Howard... Besides being fast and a very good receiver he is an outstanding blocker

8 hours ago, spicoli said:

couldn't agree more

^^ agree with all of the above, I think Howard would make more sense than any of the receivers at this point. Green/LaFell/Boyd/4th round pick/Erickson/Core sounds fine to me. What do the Bengals do about Kroft and Uzomah though? Can we really carry 4 TEs? Maybe shave down to 1 less WR than usual and let Core go?

1 hour ago, Jason said:

My receiver board in 1 would be Ross, Davis, Williams.

We're just not going to agree on Ross so I won't bother haha but why Davis over Williams?

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7 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

^^ agree with all of the above, I think Howard would make more sense than any of the receivers at this point. Green/LaFell/Boyd/4th round pick/Erickson/Core sounds fine to me. What do the Bengals do about Kroft and Uzomah though? Can we really carry 4 TEs? Maybe shave down to 1 less WR than usual and let Core go?

We're just not going to agree on Ross so I won't bother haha but why Davis over Williams?

Granted there was a difference in competition level, but Davis just seems more dynamic, especially after the catch, from what I have seen.

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