Would you take Stephen Hill at #21?

[The PatternMaster]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1331220108' post='1103415']



I think you misunderstood my point.

[size=4][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Demaryius Thomas was a 1st round pick (#22 overall)[/font][/color][/size]
[/quote]

Right and the guy who drafted him got fired the next year. I'm sure they would rather have Brandon Marshall then Thomas in Denver.

[bengaled]

[quote name='coup000' timestamp='1331213167' post='1103374']
We get it, you like guys from the U.
[/quote]


that's not entirely correct. our brother from the land where i love to vacation likes guys from all over that state.

[bengaled]

[quote name='akiliMVP' timestamp='1331214262' post='1103377']
Pass. The Al Davis method of drafting workout warriors is proven to not work. If we do take a WR in 1 gimme Floyd or Wright. WR2 is a need but we need a vet opposite AJ, not a super raw rookie.
[/quote]


this. i don't really want to see a wr selected until the 3rd round, because i think we have greater needs. but if you're going to take one in the 1st, you make sure he's worth it and can go get balls for you from the get go. floyd would be perfect in that respect. wright would fit differently, but you could count on his production as well.

[The PatternMaster]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1331220005' post='1103414']


yes, it is an assumption. You're ASSUMING he can't do something because you've personally never seen him do it.
[/quote]

OK so what are you doing, aren't you assuming he can do something he's never done before, like catch more than 28 passes a season. If anyone is assuming anything it's you, I'm going off of facts and what he has done in the past. You are saying, well he ran a 4.36 in the 40 so that means he's fast, let's take him in the first round when his production in college doesn't warrant a first round pick.

Hill is a project, he's going to need some time to develop like Jerome Simpson. There will be more experienced players available at #21 who can come in and play right away available, why draft a guy #21 overall and have him be your #4 wr at best. He's not going to start in his rookie year, will he play special teams?

IN MY OPINION #21 is way too high to consider this guy. Before the combine would you have taken Hill @ #21? Hell no, but because he runs a 4.36/40 in shorts he's a first round pick, that's some Al Davis type shit if you ask me. He's Deyarius Heyward-Bey 2.0, a great athlete who is raw in the finer points of playing wr. Yes he can be coached up and develop into a great player that utilizes his athleticism with his technique, but he's not there yet.

You don't take project/developmental guys in the first round, you need guys who can START from day 1 of training camp, Hill isn't that guy.

[bengaled]

[quote name='SocalBengalEd' timestamp='1331216955' post='1103397']
This guy is real similar to Randy Moss in size and speed and should open things up. He had almost 900 yards receiving in a high school offense. Moss did ok being a one trick pony.
[/quote]


come on, now...randy moss wasn't a one trick pony. i can't let you say that without a challenge. i remember watching randy moss and he could do it all. he just smoked too much dope and fought too much. it never had anything to do with being a one trick pony. randy had the kind of talent where he could have done anything he wanted.


College Stats Receiving Rushing Kick Returns Punt Returns Season Team GP REC YDS AVG TD LNG ATT YDS TD LNG RET YDS AVG TD LNG RET YDS AVG TD LNG 1995 [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_State_Seminoles_football"]FSU[/url] 0 DNP – Redshirt 1996 [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Thundering_Herd"]MAR[/url] 15 78 1,709 21.9 28 1 2 0 2 18 612 34.0 0 88 – – – – – 1997 [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Thundering_Herd"]MAR[/url] 13 96 1,820 19.0 26 90T 2 29 1 32T 14 263 18.8 0 49 25 271 10.8 0 58 [b]Total[/b] [b]2 years[/b] [b]28[/b] [b]174[/b] [b]3,529[/b] [b]20.3[/b] [b]54[/b] [b]90T[/b] [b]3[/b] [b]31[/b] [b]1[/b] [b]32T[/b] [b]32[/b] [b]875[/b] [b]27.3[/b] [b]0[/b] [b]88[/b] [b]25[/b] [b]271[/b] [b]10.8[/b] [b]0[/b] [b]58[/b]

[bengaled]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1331218242' post='1103406']


in what fantasy world is 4.36 speed not elite?
[/quote]


in the one where you're lined up beside the guy that runs a 4.25, lol.

let me put it another way, one that you guys haven't considered. we drafted a WR in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft with the #97 pick who had light years more experience both in running routes, catching the ball, and coming from a more technical offense. that guy's name was andre caldwell and he had 4.37 ELITE SPEED.

just sayin....speed isn't everything.

[happyrid]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331220268' post='1103419']

Is it elite when you take the top 40 times from the past 7 years at the combine and Hill doesn't even crack the top 30. Hell this year alone there were 9 guys who ran 4.3, it's not elite when others can duplicate it. When it comes to 40 times at the combine running a 4.2 is elite speed, 4.3 is great but not elite.
[/quote]


In my opinion, you can't compare the official electronic times from this year to the hand times of the past.

Hill was hand timed at 4.30 flat. His electronic time of 4.36 was tied for 2nd fastest player at the entire combine. If people don't think the 2nd fastest rookie of the 200+ who were at the combine has elite speed, then that's a very, very narrow definition of elite.

You either believe that this entire draft class is slower than the draft classes of 4 or 5 years ago, or you realize that these "official" electronic times are all .05 to .10 slower than the hand times (the unofficial times shown by the NFL network) that were used in years past.

I think there is an argument to be made that Hill is mostly a one trick pony (deep threat, jump ball type guy). But the same argument can be made about Randy Moss in his prime or Calvin Johnson or Mike Wallace. Even if his "only" talent is the ability to catch 50 yard bombs, that is enough of a talent to demand double teams and safety help over the top which opens things up for everyone else in the passing game. It also (along with AJ's presence) assures that you are running against at most 7 in the box as teams will be too scared to put the 8th guy up there.

I highly doubt Randy Moss would have run a 4.25 if they had been using the new electronic timing system.

[JC]

I don't think you can afford to draft someone who is that raw at #21. For everyone that bitches about Jerome being inconsistent, this guy would likely be worse in his first year of a pro offense. If you're taking a receiver, I think it has to be someone who is going to be ready day #1, like Mike Floyd.

I don't think we should use a first on a receiver anyways. Get a veteran who has run an offense like this in free agency.

[The PatternMaster]

[quote name='happyrid' timestamp='1331222271' post='1103442']


In my opinion, you can't compare the official electronic times from this year to the hand times of the past.

Hill was hand timed at 4.30 flat. His electronic time of 4.36 was tied for 2nd fastest player at the entire combine. If people don't think the 2nd fastest rookie of the 200+ who were at the combine has elite speed, then that's a very, very narrow definition of elite.

You either believe that this entire draft class is slower than the draft classes of 4 or 5 years ago, or you realize that these "official" electronic times are all .05 to .10 slower than the hand times (the unofficial times shown by the NFL network) that were used in years past.

I think there is an argument to be made that Hill is mostly a one trick pony (deep threat, jump ball type guy). But the same argument can be made about Randy Moss in his prime or Calvin Johnson or Mike Wallace. Even if his "only" talent is the ability to catch 50 yard bombs, that is enough of a talent to demand double teams and safety help over the top which opens things up for everyone else in the passing game. It also (along with AJ's presence) assures that you are running against at most 7 in the box as teams will be too scared to put the 8th guy up there.

I highly doubt Randy Moss would have run a 4.25 if they had been using the new electronic timing system.
[/quote]

I'm not comparing hand times to electronic, I'm comparing eletronic to electronic.

See for yourself where Hill's 4.36/40 ranks him when compared to the best 40 times at the combine since 2006...[url="http://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers?position=QB&position=RB&position=WR&position=TE&position=S&position=LB&position=CB&position=OL&position=SPEC&year=2006&year=2007&year=2008&year=2009&year=2010&year=2011&year=2012&position=DL&workout=FORTY_YARD_DASH#year=2006-2007-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012&workout=FORTY_YARD_DASH&position=QB-RB-WR-TE-S-DL-LB-CB-OL-SPEC"]http://www.nfl.com/c...L-LB-CB-OL-SPEC[/url].


It's a great time, but it's not elite. Chris Johnson, Jacoby Ford, and Dieon Sanders ran elite 40's at the combine.

When I think of 40 times at the combine for wr's, rb's, cb's I would a 4.5 is average, a 4.4 is good, a 4.3 is great, and a 4.2 is elite. If 7 guys run a 4.3 how can it be elite?

Elite is defined [b]as [/b][b][color=#333333]the[/color] [color=#333333]choice[/color] or [color=#333333]best[/color] of anything [color=#333333]considered[/color] [/b][color=#333333][b]collectively[/b],[color=#222222] if everyone is running a 4.3 how are you the best of the group? You're not, if everyone is running a 4.3 and you run a 4.2 then you would be elite. [/color][/color]

[texbengal]

WR is a need, but I worry about guys like Hill who don't have the body of work that some of the other guys do. That said, a guy like Thomas from the same school gives you pause. No question, the guy has ability and size, which you can't teach. I saw Mayock interview him yesterday, and he indicated that his work ethic is stronger now... basically saying that he didn't work as hard early on at Ga. Tech. That's a little concerning.

Personally, I'd rather them get a guy who can more likely contribute from the jump - either a FA or one of the more advanced guys like Floyd or Wright, but I wouldn't throw out the "NFW" on Hill.

[The PatternMaster]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1331222759' post='1103447']
[b]I don't think you can afford to draft someone who is that raw at #21. For everyone that bitches about Jerome being inconsistent, this guy would likely be worse in his first year of a pro offense[/b]. If you're taking a receiver, I think it has to be someone who is going to be ready day #1, like Mike Floyd.

I don't think we should use a first on a receiver anyways. Get a veteran who has run an offense like this in free agency.
[/quote]

this..Hill would be a great 3rd round pick or 2nd depending on who you have on the roster but if you draft him and expect him to start and put up big number from day 1 you will be disappointed.

Simpson had 50 catches for 725 yards and 4 tds last year in his first full season as a starter, I doubt Hill could do better if he was taken #21 overall and put in the starting offense. If you draft a guy in the first he has to contribute in year 1, this team isn't in a position to draft project players in the first round, I can't think of a team that is actually.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331221226' post='1103428']

[b]OK so what are you doing, aren't you assuming he can do something he's never done before, like catch more than 28 passes a season.[/b] [b]If anyone is assuming anything it's you,[/b] I'm going off of facts and what he has done in the past. You are saying, well he ran a 4.36 in the 40 so that means he's fast, let's take him in the first round when his production in college doesn't warrant a first round pick.

Hill is a project, he's going to need some time to develop like Jerome Simpson. There will be more experienced players available at #21 who can come in and play right away available, why draft a guy #21 overall and have him be your #4 wr at best. He's not going to start in his rookie year, will he play special teams?

IN MY OPINION #21 is way too high to consider this guy. Before the combine would you have taken Hill @ #21? Hell no, but because he runs a 4.36/40 in shorts he's a first round pick, that's some Al Davis type shit if you ask me. He's Deyarius Heyward-Bey 2.0, a great athlete who is raw in the finer points of playing wr. Yes he can be coached up and develop into a great player that utilizes his athleticism with his technique, but he's not there yet.

You don't take project/developmental guys in the first round, you need guys who can START from day 1 of training camp, Hill isn't that guy.
[/quote]


honestly, I"m not assuming anything. I don't know what routes he can run or not. What I DO know is that scouts who have worked him out at the combine and his pro day say he can run the route tree well. That's good enough for you.

You didn't watch his pro day, and I'm guessing you didn't see all of his combine workout. You, nor I, know fully what he can or can't do. Judging him based soley on the routes he run in a gimmick offense, is making wild assumptions about his skill level.

[bengaled]

[quote name='happyrid' timestamp='1331222271' post='1103442']


In my opinion, you can't compare the official electronic times from this year to the hand times of the past.

Hill was hand timed at 4.30 flat. His electronic time of 4.36 was tied for 2nd fastest player at the entire combine. If people don't think the 2nd fastest rookie of the 200+ who were at the combine has elite speed, then that's a very, very narrow definition of elite.

You either believe that this entire draft class is slower than the draft classes of 4 or 5 years ago, or you realize that these "official" electronic times are all .05 to .10 slower than the hand times (the unofficial times shown by the NFL network) that were used in years past.

I think there is an argument to be made that Hill is mostly a one trick pony (deep threat, jump ball type guy). But the same argument can be made about Randy Moss in his prime or Calvin Johnson or Mike Wallace. Even if his "only" talent is the ability to catch 50 yard bombs, that is enough of a talent to demand double teams and safety help over the top which opens things up for everyone else in the passing game. It also (along with AJ's presence) assures that you are running against at most 7 in the box as teams will be too scared to put the 8th guy up there.

I highly doubt Randy Moss would have run a 4.25 if they had been using the new electronic timing system.
[/quote]


i think the point you make about the combine timing is a very good one, and one i tossed around in my head several times during this year's combine, and not just this year, either. there's just no way you can measure these guys from year to year...too many discrepancies.

you could also flip the argument another way, current prospects have much better training methods from years past. it's unbelievable how much time a trainer like a cliff marshall can pare off your 40, if you're willing to put in the work, and pay the money to go to his camp.

but my friend, you're full of shit on randy moss being a one trick pony. my eyes told me another story, both in college and the pros. you don't consistently catch that many balls, year after year, by only running go routes.

and for the record....after 13 years of wear and tear in the NFL, randy moss was timed at his exceptional workout the other day at 4.39-4.42....as a 35 year old man. i don't doubt that 4.25 40 speed from college one bit. he might have actually been faster than that! too bad he was always such an asshole, but he's the best WR i've ever seen....bar none.

don't believe me? here's some examples from marshall. check the others to the right, too, and take your pick. boy, do these ever bring back old memories!

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6kMpJjsDg0[/media]


edit: well, i couldn't get that to load as i wanted. but if you look up randy's you tube highlights from marshall, you'll see what i was trying to achieve. sorry about the lack of computer skills!

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331220268' post='1103419']

Is it elite when you take the top 40 times from the past 7 years at the combine and Hill doesn't even crack the top 30. Hell this year alone there were 9 guys who ran 4.3, it's not elite when others can duplicate it. When it comes to 40 times at the combine running a 4.2 is elite speed, 4.3 is great but not elite.
[/quote]


I'd absolutely love for you to back that up in any way whatsoever. I triple dog dare you.


In the last 5 years at the combine, Hill ran the 5th best 40 time for a receiver. That's elite speed no matter how you try and spin it.


I'll even do your job for you. Over the last 7 combines, Hill is 13th. 13th out of roughly 330 WR's over that time period. The top 3%. That's elite.


[img]http://static.fjcdn.com/comments/Except+that+person+doesn+t+have+a+handicap+plate+or+tag+_f3040e4b04f196e34784cb5f8b31ed2d.jpg[/img]

[Tigris]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331220268' post='1103419']


Is it elite when you take the top 40 times from the past 7 years at the combine and Hill doesn't even crack the top 30. Hell this year alone there were 9 guys who ran 4.3, it's not elite when others can duplicate it. When it comes to 40 times at the combine running a 4.2 is elite speed, 4.3 is great but not elite.
[/quote]

Agreed. Can't have 50 elite guys. I'd consider top 10 at a specific task elite in regards to the # of NFL players.

[The PatternMaster]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1331224232' post='1103467']


honestly, I"m not assuming anything. I don't know what routes he can run or not. What I DO know is that scouts who have worked him out at the combine and his pro day say he can run the route tree well. That's good enough for you.

You didn't watch his pro day, and I'm guessing you didn't see all of his combine workout. You, nor I, know fully what he can or can't do. Judging him based soley on the routes he run in a gimmick offense, is making wild assumptions about his skill level.
[/quote]

So judging him based on what he did for 3 years in college is assuming, ok whatever. Running routes in shorts is different than running routes in a game with a db in your face. Hill is going to have an adjustment period or a learning curve because he played in a gimmicky offense in college. He didn't run alot of different routes in college, hell he only caught 28 passes all year.

Like I said, pre-combine he was a 3rd round pick at best, after he ran a 4.36/40 all of a sudden he's a first round guy...not in my book. He didn't master route running in two months, until he shows that he can do it in a game situation it remains a question mark, imo.

[Lewdog]

I'm not buying this. Could he be the next Mike Wallace? Sure. Could he be the next Heyward-Bay? Maybe? Does his speed make him worthy of being drafted by the Bengals in the first round at #21? In my opinion I don't think so. I'd rather have a guy that has shown a litle more production.

[The PatternMaster]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1331224664' post='1103470']


I'd absolutely love for you to back that up in any way whatsoever. I triple dog dare you.


In the last 5 years at the combine, Hill ran the 5th best 40 time for a receiver. That's elite speed no matter how you try and spin it.


I'll even do your job for you. Over the last 7 combines, Hill is 13th. 13th out of roughly 330 WR's over that time period. The top 3%. That's elite.


[img]http://static.fjcdn.com/comments/Except+that+person+doesn+t+have+a+handicap+plate+or+tag+_f3040e4b04f196e34784cb5f8b31ed2d.jpg[/img]
[/quote]

Ranking him vs. other wr's only doesn't make sense as he will be going against db's not wr's, therefore I think ranking his time vs. db's and wr's is a better indicator of how his speed matches up vs. the competition he will face on Sundays in the NFL.

In the past 5 years(2008- 2012) the top five 40 times are: 1. Johnson 4.24 (elite), 2. Jacoby Ford 4.28 (elite), 2. Demarcus Van Dyke 4.28(elite), 3 Darrius Heyward-Bey 4.30 (elite), 4. Tyvon Branch 4.31 (great), 4. Justin King 4.31 (great), 5. Orlando Scandrick 4.32 (great). Hill's 4.36 is not top 5 over the last 5 years.

When you include in the db's, you know the guys he will have outrun to make a play, Hill's 40 time isn't elite. It's a great time, but not elite.

[bengaled]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331225879' post='1103486']

Ranking him vs. other wr's only doesn't make sense as he will be going against db's not wr's, therefore I think ranking his time vs. db's and wr's is a better indicator of how his speed matches up vs. the competition he will face on Sundays in the NFL.

In the past 5 years(2008- 2012) the top five 40 times are: 1. Johnson 4.24 (elite), 2. Jacoby Ford 4.28 (elite), 2. Demarcus Van Dyke 4.28(elite), 3 Darrius Heyward-Bey 4.30 (elite), 4. Tyvon Branch 4.31 (great), 4. Justin King 4.31 (great), 5. Orlando Scandrick 4.32 (great). Hill's 4.36 is not top 5 over the last 5 years.

When you include in the db's, you know the guys he will have outrun to make a play, Hill's 40 time isn't elite. It's a great time, but not elite.
[/quote]


i've agreed with a lot of what you've said in this thread, but you're going out on a limb, now. that doesn't do anything to justify your POV.

who gives a fuck about CBs? we were discussing WR's speed.

[happyrid]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331223025' post='1103449'] I'm not comparing hand times to electronic, I'm comparing eletronic to electronic. See for yourself where Hill's 4.36/40 ranks him when compared to the best 40 times at the combine since 2006...[url="http://www.nfl.com/combine/top-performers?position=QB&position=RB&position=WR&position=TE&position=S&position=LB&position=CB&position=OL&position=SPEC&year=2006&year=2007&year=2008&year=2009&year=2010&year=2011&year=2012&position=DL&workout=FORTY_YARD_DASH#year=2006-2007-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012&workout=FORTY_YARD_DASH&position=QB-RB-WR-TE-S-DL-LB-CB-OL-SPEC"]http://www.nfl.com/c...L-LB-CB-OL-SPEC[/url]. It's a great time, but it's not elite. Chris Johnson, Jacoby Ford, and Dieon Sanders ran elite 40's at the combine. When I think of 40 times at the combine for wr's, rb's, cb's I would a 4.5 is average, a 4.4 is good, a 4.3 is great, and a 4.2 is elite. If 7 guys run a 4.3 how can it be elite? Elite is defined [b]as [/b][b][color=#333333]the[/color] [color=#333333]choice[/color] or [color=#333333]best[/color] of anything [color=#333333]considered[/color] [/b][color=#333333][b]collectively[/b],[color=#222222] if everyone is running a 4.3 how are you the best of the group? You're not, if everyone is running a 4.3 and you run a 4.2 then you would be elite. [/color][/color][/quote]

[i]I'm almost positive that they just recently changed the way they do the electronic timing. [/i]This year the players were wearing little microchips inside their shirts. There were guys who are legit track stars that didn't crack 4.40 this year. The miniscule number of guys who cracked 4.4 officially this year compared to past years should be a pretty strong indicator that not all official times are created exactly equally.

In addition, the first combine held at Lucas Oil Stadium was in 2009. Before that they ran on a different surface.

In my opinion, you have to compare guys to their own draft class to determine if they are elite. There are too many variables to compare a guy who ran in 2005 on a different surface and with a different method of coming up with an official time. Especially when we are only talking about .10 of a second.

Again, just my opinion, but a guy who was the fastest offensive player at the NFL combine in his draft class almost by definition has to be considered to have elite speed.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331225879' post='1103486']

Ranking him vs. other wr's only doesn't make sense as he will be going against db's not wr's, therefore I think ranking his time vs. db's and wr's is a better indicator of how his speed matches up vs. the competition he will face on Sundays in the NFL.

In the past 5 years(2008- 2012) the top five 40 times are: 1. Johnson 4.24 (elite), 2. Jacoby Ford 4.28 (elite), 2. Demarcus Van Dyke 4.28(elite), 3 Darrius Heyward-Bey 4.30 (elite), 4. Tyvon Branch 4.31 (great), 4. Justin King 4.31 (great), 5. Orlando Scandrick 4.32 (great). Hill's 4.36 is not top 5 over the last 5 years.

When you include in the db's, you know the guys he will have outrun to make a play, Hill's 40 time isn't elite. It's a great time, but not elite.
[/quote]

[img]http://ce.stillwater.k12.mn.us/sites/25660353-928e-49cf-a444-2683d1b5c84d/uploads/Spin.jpg[/img]

[EnglishBengal]

I have to be honest, I would MAYBE consider taking him in round 2, but only if we draft a vet during FA to start opposite AJ.

However, if we don't get a starting no.2 in FA and we were going to take a WR #21, I would probably consider Rueben Randle over Stephen Hill. Randle is not as quick but has better hands and is a proven route runner and playmaker in a top program, and has done it against top competition. Other then Hill, Randle is the wr the Bengals coaches spent most time speaking with at the combine.

Also question:
When Calvin Johnson came out of Georgia Tech, were they running the same offense as today? How many snaps was Johnson getting?

[SocalBengalEd]

Hills speed is elite why are we even questioning it. You put Hill in a wide open offense and his numbers would be insane. What do you think Blackmon's number if he were at G.Tech. Hill averaged 30 YARDS a catch that's a deep threat. He just didn't have the opportunities in college. Chad was the same way too, then the scouts saw him run routes at the.senior bowl and he sky rocketed up draft charts. Kiper even said Chad put one of the greatest performances during senior bowl week he didn't really show it in college.

[McBallerson]

pass. reminds me of heyward-bey. some bad drops among, what, like 28 catches last year?

[oldschooler]

[quote name='The PatternMaster' timestamp='1331220581' post='1103425']

Right and the guy who drafted him got fired the next year. I'm sure they would rather have Brandon Marshall then Thomas in Denver.
[/quote]



Him drafting Thomas isn't what got him fired.

And Thomas broke the Stealers' backs in the Playoffs.